Quote from: Levi KornelsenBrian, what would cause you personally to see it as significant?  What kind of data, generally?

Let's get some criteria here.

Difficult to say not being directly involved in industry economics. But I'll take a pot shot.

First we'd have to define indie games.

Then we'd have to show they had a significant percentage of the RPG market. Say 20%. Maybe 10% would do. Otherwise they are just noise on the graph.

Then we'd have to show that a majority of those have seen steady sales increases over the last 3-5 years while traditional companies showed declines.

Ideally the source of this data would not be the owners themselves due to conflict of interest.

And one would have to account for failed indie publishers (otherwise you're selecting for success out of the gate).

I think that would work. If you could manage it I'd be impressed.

Quote from: Levi KornelsenYup.

That Indie sales are increasing in a time when larger RPG companies are shrinking is pretty easy to prove.  

That it matters, less so.

I think you are confusing some issues here. Larger companies begging for money has more to do with overhead and operations costs. Small press and indie companies are more flexible and able to lead the way on a number of business models. For instance, a lot of larger companies would not consider PDF a few years ago. Today, they make it sound like the always did operations this way. I do not think they will go to a POD model anytime soon but it is the kind of thing that small press often leads the way if you get my meaning.

As for indies sales increasing...I still do not know this is the case. I think retailers are more open to small press and indie titles but that may be a sign of desperation. These titles sell well from a knowledgeable staff and I do not know how knowledgeable the average retailer is on indie titles.

If you like, I think we could just say "For the sake of the argument" that the indie game sales are growing. Or better yet, say at least three companies are seeing increases, why is this. Then we can get on with a discussion of why this is happening.

Bill

Quote from: HinterWeltOr better yet, say at least three companies are seeing increases, why is this. Then we can get on with a discussion of why this is happening.

Excellent idea.

Quote from: gleichmanI think that would work. If you could manage it I'd be impressed.

I think with those numbers we could all agree.  However, I think we can also agree that gathering all that data is nearly impossible.  Is there nothing else that would convince that indie RPGs have arrived?  I don't really need market data to intuit that D&D is a big deal in the hobby.  Do you?

Quote from: gleichmanIf you could manage it I'd be impressed.

So would I.

I was actually thinking "significant" in totally different terms.

That is, Indie games (by my definition, rather than that of Mr. Kim) have quickly and usefully developed ways for publishers to print cheaper, advertise largely by word-of-mouth, act as a peer network rather than as direct competitors, distribute differently, and any number of other factors that have led to their recent upswing.

I see the development of those approaches to be the matter of significance, rather than the specific details of their market share.

Can I gripe about GAMA now?

Because, being a small press publisher in this crazy, topsy-turvy industry, I would love to see some industry reporting -- I'd love to see consumer data, retailer date and manufacturer data. There's none. Or, there's one piece, a survey that WotC did 6 years ago. It's like a message in a bottle containing newspaper headlines to a man shipwrecked. ::Shakes fist at god:: Thanks, asshole.

But most of my peers are very forthcoming with their sales data; they post their numbers quarterly and annually. Some go down, some stay the same, but most go up. It's some of the only hard data out there.

-L

Quote from: lukeOh, never fear, I'm an elitist jack ass. And Swine and all that. I'm not looking for Gleichie's writing credentials.

In case you are wondering, though, Brian wrote his own ~180 page role-playing game called Age of Heroes and simply gave it away for free.  You can find reviews for it on RPGnet, for example here:

http://www.rpg.net/news+reviews/reviews/rev_3674.html

No, the reviews are not stellar (it's not really the sort of game RPGnet normally goes for) but you can find points like this: "This is a commercial quality game - available for free." and most acknowledge that it did a good job of doing what it set out to do.  So, basically, he did write his own game.  Rather than trying to sell it, he gave it away.

Quote from: lukeMy point was that I think there are small press/small business/self-publishing realities he's blithely ignoring by talking big and full of bluster.

I wouldn't assume that he is, especially if you read his reply.  He was the one who noticed the difference between gross and net.

Quote from: lukeMy money is where my mouth is.

A lot of people put their money into labors of love and lose their shirts.  While it's admirable in some ways that you are willing to go out on a limb for something you love, it doesn't necessarily mean you'll succeed.  A lot of small businesses (and a lot of role-playing publishers) fail.

Quote from: lukeI don't make a living from BW -- YET. This is a tough and competitive industry!

Good luck.  I mean that seriously.

Quote from: lukeYeah, but I figure over here I'm going to end up looking elitist and bastardish and swinish by comparison or default or something. You know, I actually LIKE rpg.net and indie-rpgs.com and story-games.com. Crazy, I know.

Well, you'll need to fight like a dog to get respect from Pundit and a few others.  If that sounds like fun to you, then right on.

But generally, I think you're pretty cool, and I suspect I'm very much not alone in that.  There's not a lot of homogeny here, thus far.

Quote from: lukeCan I gripe about GAMA now?

Oh, my, yes.

Actually, it probably deserves a whole thread to itself, just for bitching.  Then, maybe, another one, after everyone is done, to be rational in.

"Indie" (which is in all but very special cases thematic games, all the d20 pdf makers are obviously not discussed here...) Gaming grows, because it serves a new niche. It will not take over, but just reach it`s audience and then it will remain stable, like any new phenomenon. I really hope nobody is extrapolating the increase rates to the next five years. And, there are a lot of jaded people. RPG.Net is only about jaded people talking flavour of the month. There is tons of internet guys wanting no-effort, no prep, single book games. And they get what they want.
All together this is enough to explain the increase:

New Niche (genuinley new, fresh and thorough-bred) meets Jaded people

BTW:
Before putting off Pundits remark against Heroquest being indie, better think about it twice. The whole owner owned bend-over-backwards definition on the Forge is totally made for Heroquest. I propose The Forge Booth starts selling Palladium Products in Essen .

Quote from: Levi KornelsenThat is, Indie games (by my definition, rather than that of Mr. Kim) have quickly and usefully developed ways for publishers to print cheaper, advertise largely by word-of-mouth, act as a peer network rather than as direct competitors, distribute differently, and any number of other factors that have led to their recent upswing.

I see the development of those approaches to be the matter of significance, rather than the specific details of their market share.

I think that the larger industry has already adopted these.  

1) As far as I know, mainstream publishing (meaning Wizards and White Wolf, for the most part) is still cheaper unit-for-unit than indie publishing.  So not many gains to be made there.  Page of page, indie print games are generally more expensive.  

2) The RPG industry has always depended on word of mouth for its primary advertising.  They have been supporting online forums (like ENWorld) for exactly this purpose.  

3) Wizards and White Wolf have also adopted PDF and print-on-demand publishing as a parallel to the traditional distribution scheme.  Virtually all of D&D is now available in electronic format, for example.  

4) Peering isn't hugely common, but it's there.  White Wolf has a D20 line supporting Wizards (along with everybody else), for example.  Wizards has stayed out of WW's goth niche.  Mechanics have always been imitated, and now OGL sharing is pretty standard.  

So many of these things, at least, are already part of the industry.

Quote from: jhkim4) Peering isn't hugely common, but it's there.  White Wolf has a D20 line supporting Wizards (along with everybody else), for example.  Wizards has stayed out of WW's goth niche.  Mechanics have always been imitated, and now OGL sharing is pretty standard.

One could argue that releasing the OGL was an act of peer support, even if Wizards expected to benefit from it.  A lot of smaller publishers certainly did benefit from it.

Quote from: jrientsI think with those numbers we could all agree.  However, I think we can also agree that gathering all that data is nearly impossible.  Is there nothing else that would convince that indie RPGs have arrived?  I don't really need market data to intuit that D&D is a big deal in the hobby.  Do you?

D&D is a rather extreme example. Few things have such a overwhelming presence in their market and that speaks to its importance if not its health.

It gets much less certain when you're speaking about companies with small market shares.

Without real data, it's frankly just opinion. They're important if they're important to you. Not if they're not.

For what it's worth, I would take more notice if I knew of any local groups that played these games. I did a fair about of player searching and respondng to player searching, and indie games are basically unknown in that crowd. While well known online, they don't seem to have a footprint in the real world.

Quote from: Levi KornelsenI see the development of those approaches to be the matter of significance, rather than the specific details of their market share.

I see them as having potential significance in general, and actual significance on the personal level.

Quote from: lukeCan I gripe about GAMA now?

Because, being a small press publisher in this crazy, topsy-turvy industry, I would love to see some industry reporting -- I'd love to see consumer data, retailer date and manufacturer data. There's none. Or, there's one piece, a survey that WotC did 6 years ago. It's like a message in a bottle containing newspaper headlines to a man shipwrecked. ::Shakes fist at god:: Thanks, asshole.

But most of my peers are very forthcoming with their sales data; they post their numbers quarterly and annually. Some go down, some stay the same, but most go up. It's some of the only hard data out there.

-L

Gama is doing this now. It is an unsecured web based survey that has little hope of accuracy. Wizkids are also runnign their own survey. All of it aimed squarely the the retail tier. meh.

Bill