Quote from: TonyLBI look at the list and I think "Yep ... that's a decent description about how we've collectively gotten to where we are now.  Some of that may provide some guidance as to how we should get to where we want to be tomorrow."

I was thinking at least as much about why the whole phenomenon is growing, as how individual indie publishers are scaling up, at least at first.

More people are getting involved in self-publication, because of the current level of success.

If a significant number of  people continue to enjoy success (by whatever standard they set), we'll see more independently published games.

....

Imagine that a given game gets you $5,000 profit per year.  Imagine further that it continues to give roundabout that same profit, with some rises and falls, for about ten years.

Now imagine that you write a game a year.

That's not a pipe dream; that's a real possibility.

In order for that to work, you either need to expand the audience, get people to play more, or get people to accept the idea that they'll play a given game for a short amount of time and then throw it away. If they transfer it to someone else, then you begin competing with the used market. And particularly when you have a business model that's based on internet sales, you're going to be dealing with a customer base that's quite comfortable taking advantage of eBay, Amazon marketplace, half.com, etc.

It will help to lower the price to the point that selling/buying a used game just isn't worth the trouble, but then that may cut into your profits.

Barring that what I really expect is that there'll be a few evergreen games due to factors like quality or just plain being the first in the water, and then as the market fills up, games will start to follow the same pattern of flash and fade in terms of sales. The evergreen games will generally enjoy relative long-term sales along a distribution represented by a power law.

The main question is how long it'll take to fill up the market. But I do not think that new entrants to indie game publishing are going to enjoy a neverending ability to profit financially from their games in a significant way.

Quote from: Elliot WilenIn order for that to work, you either need to expand the audience, get people to play more, or get people to accept the idea that they'll play a given game for a short amount of time and then throw it away.

Oh, for Pete's sake. Has anyone heard of board games or war games? You don't throw away games with a built-in theme or story. You play them again, and it's totally fun. I have fought the Korean War on a table-top about 5 times, and, man, I will do it again with any friend. I have also fought my way to the top of Mt. Fuji in search of the Mountain Witch about 7 times, and I can't wait to do it again.

Sure I have, Clinton. This is how I see the wargame market: shrinking and disappearing, characterized by a very few games that sell over 1000 copies and even fewer that are actually played.

This is how I see the boardgame market: dominated by a few evergreen games and a bunch of boutique games that come and go.

The following seems to me to be a mathematical truism (and consistent with the text you've quoted):

If (number of players) times (hours each one spends playing games) is constant, then the market for new games depends on people giving up playing some games in order to play new ones. It's true you don't have to throw away a game but if you keep it on the shelf without playing it the effect is the same. It's also true that you can expand your stable of games indefinitely if you're willing to go into a longer and longer rotation but in practice that is also much the same thing.

I just don't buy the idea that stories are reusable in the same way that a board or card game is resuable, though.

I mean, I could probably get together with a group of people to play poker every week for a year. I could (and do) get together to play weekly sessions of longterm campaigns that go longer than a year. But I don't think I would want to play the same short-run story every week for over a year.

*Shrug*

Optimists assume the market is much larger than current.  Cynics think otherwise.

I tend to side with the optimists on this one, if only because every single Indie game I own is at least as different from each of the others as it is from any mainstream game.

And because Indie games can walk completely out on the traditional boundaries of what an RPG is and appeal to entirely different groups - my copy of Breaking the Ice, acquired only a couple of weeks ago, has seen use in no less than three seperate games.  Two of those games each involved a different person that not only had never gamed before, but never wanted to.

Oh, I have no idea how big the market is. I do think that anyone seeking sales could do a lot worse than to look well outside the current hobby market. On the other hand, the nice thing about the hobby market is that it's composed of otakus who are addicted to the medium and willing to put up with its rigors in terms of learning radically different systems. In short, variety is your friend when it comes to reaching diverse markets, but it's your enemy when it comes to reaping repeat business.

Basically, with sensible practices like PDF sales and POD I think people nowadays have a fantastic opportunity to share their creativity with each other, but I think the result will be a proliferation of niches. Just as with the MP3 revolution in music I think that traditional distribution systems are doomed (and even somewhat traditional production and marketing systems); however, because markets are ultimately limited and because of the phenomenon observed by Clay Shirkey, profit is going to be very unequally distributed.

(BTW, how did *shrug* take its place in the pantheon of RPG forum conversational tics? It's an...interesting...and as far as I can tell unique...idiosyncrasy of the "culture".)

Quote from: Elliot Wilen(BTW, how did *shrug* take its place in the pantheon of RPG forum conversational tics? It's an...interesting...and as far as I can tell unique...idiosyncrasy of the "culture".)

Dunno.  Been using it for years, along with *snerk*

Quote from: Elliot WilenSure I have, Clinton. This is how I see the wargame market: shrinking and disappearing, characterized by a very few games that sell over 1000 copies and even fewer that are actually played.

This is how I see the boardgame market: dominated by a few evergreen games and a bunch of boutique games that come and go.

I get that. I was overly snarky in my post before. My own experience of board games is very different: I tend to buy about four to six of them a year (and about six to nine different RPGs.) But I understand I'm a very atypical customer. Luckily for me, but not for market growth, my customers are like me.

Is there an icon for jealousy? Though in part thanks to Findplay, I've managed to get together with a bunch of local gamers and we're stumbling toward some sort of workable rhythm of play.

Quote from: Abyssal MawI just don't buy the idea that stories are reusable in the same way that a board or card game is resuable, though.

I mean, I could probably get together with a group of people to play poker every week for a year. I could (and do) get together to play weekly sessions of longterm campaigns that go longer than a year. But I don't think I would want to play the same short-run story every week for over a year.

Word.

A different group might yield a different result and new situations, but in the end, doing the same thing over and over is boring. I love several Shadowrun adventures from FASA's glory days, but there's only a number of times I'm willing to run them.

I think that this link, though from August, is germane to the discussion:

In Mike Mearls' blog, about GenCon '06

The Forge booth could have been the third best seller, after WotC and WW. He speaks highly of Agon and Burning Empires, which must be Swine games. Also Ryan Dancey has very good things to say about indie games.

I'm glad to see people saying nice things on other people who make different things than theirs. Now I ask myself if that makes Mr. Mearls a Swine.

'Twas an evening in November,
As I very well remember,
I was strolling down the street in drunken pride.
But my thoughts were all a-flutter,
And I fell down in the gutter,
And a pig came up and lay down by my side.

Yes, I lay there in the gutter,
Thinking thoughts I could not utter,
When a colleen passing by did softly say,
"Ye can tell a man that boozes by the company he chooses."
And at that, the pig got up and walked away!

:cool: Genius

Quote from: ImperatorI think that this link, though from August, is germane to the discussion:

In Mike Mearls' blog, about GenCon '06

The Forge booth could have been the third best seller, after WotC and WW. He speaks highly of Agon and Burning Empires, which must be Swine games. Also Ryan Dancey has very good things to say about indie games.

I'm glad to see people saying nice things on other people who make different things than theirs. Now I ask myself if that makes Mr. Mearls a Swine.

Mike Mearls has always had sympathies toward the Forge, my sense being that its more because of Mike's own personal crusade that there be some kind of a workshop for people to create good RPGs, something hes talked about before with his Wiki idea, etc.
So his position is that the Forge is at least making an effort in that direction, which no one else is.
Never mind that the "effort" they're making is completely wrong minded and likely to end up stifling any other possible efforts to do that kind of thing the right way.

And Mearls' anecdotal view based on the number of people he saw at the Forge booth at Gencon is hardly definitive evidence of sales; but that said it wouldn't really surprise me at all if the Forge did have good sales at Gencon, because its one of the few places where there will be enough Forgeites in one place to simulate good sales.  Its a meaningless figure. You don't have average gamers going to Gencon, you have very dedicated people.
So Gencon sales, like the internet, will be very disproportionate to reality.

Its like if you were to look at RPG.net as your guide, Exalted would certainly have to be the best selling RPG in the world.
But of course we know it isn't. Its just that RPG.net is a warped lens by which to view things.

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