Quote from: StumpydaveI have a query about the status of wargames.  Are we talking wargaming as a whole or just some small subset of which I am unaware.  Because the first things that pop into my head when people say wargaming is Games Workshop and Wargames illustrated.

Saying that these are lesser to RPG's in terms of "industry" and "worth" strikes me as somewhat deluded.

(Not that I'm comparing the two hobbys or stating a rivalry where none exist, merely pointing out that if you want to point out a weaker/smaller hobby than RPGs then wargaming isn't the one to pick.)

Good point, although by "wargaming" I think people are mostly referring to the old map-and-chit style paper games of yore, which is indeed, alas, a dying hobby filled mostly with collectors and solo players.  I do think that the fate of this hobby is potentially the Ghost of Christmas Future for the RPG hobby if there isn't a constant influx of new players.  Even the miniature historical wargaming hobby has the greybeard problem (at 36 I am often one of the younger regular players at our local shop, although with the introduction of historical miniatures game with broad appeal, like Flames of War, this is changing).

Oh, and I voted #2.  I think that the loss of D&D (however unlikely in the short term) would really harm the hobby's long-term survivability as anything more than a niche interest like stamp collecting.  Yeah, there will always be a few die hards and a cottage industry to support them, but without the name recognition of D&D I suspect that the pool of new players would dry up completely.


TGA

It will be damaged, and new player growth will be near zero (not at 3E levels) for a long time, but there are too many current players for it to completely die off. You will still have GURPS, Palladium, and White Wolf turning out product at its current level and they will probably see increased growth.

From what I have heard about 4e from the FLGS owner if it doesn't kill D&D then nothing will

If D&D4e does poorly in sales, I doubt it would kill the D&D line permanently, though it would do a fair amount of damage.  Hasbro would likely shut it down for a number of years, while letting 3.5 continue on with some new stuff, but mostly remain unchanged.  The d20 OGL/OGC stuff would likely continue on and do quite well.  Hasbro might sit on the D&D license, or maybe they'd "lease" it out to another company to see what fresh blood and fresh ideas could do with it.

The roleplaying hobby would likely be damaged, but I doubt it would stay that way for long.  d20 did a lot to revive the RPG industry, to the point where it can stand up on it's own without D&D.  There are lots of indie game developers, many more d20 producers, and many of the industry's big names are still going (White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, etc...).

Quote from: WarthurIs... is that thing about the industry being reduced to small-press self-publishing concerns invisible or something?

Or do you mean you think that D&D will just disappear and all the other gaming companies out there will chug along happily just as they're doing now? I didn't put that option up there because I considered it wildly unrealistic; the disappearance of D&D would be such a big deal that it would have to effect those publishers one way or another. If that's honestly your opinion "It'll dent the industry, but the industry will probably survive" seems to fit your view.

That's why I chose that one. Especially because I didn't see the first option as covering companies like SJG, BI, Chaosium, Pelgrane Press, etc.

Quoteby "wargaming" I think people are mostly referring to the old map-and-chit style paper games of yore,

Yes. I'm not talking about metal miniatures or those *clix-type things. No prejudice against them; they're just a different thing I don't know about, and which doesn't seem to overlap much with the ASL/World in Flames/Bonaparte at Marengo subset of the hobby. The latter survives, but the biggest companies I can think of are GMT, Columbia, and Multi-Man Press. Where there is overlap it seems to be in the Command & Colors games and the Fantasy Flight War of the Ring game.

Here's a follow-up - if you're SJG, or Palladium, or White Wolf - what do you do?  Assume 4th Edition, for the sake of argument, tanks, so badly that D&D sales dwindle rapidly.

• Do you try to get gamers with your own rules set?
• Do you write something as a bridge game - something that mixes your game(s) and D&D to pull players over?
• Do you write a 3rd-edition-D&D-with-serial-numbers-filed-off (essentially a straight d20 with D&D trappings) to capture market?

Are there other options?

I was, originally, just thinking about GURPS and what it might take to go after those players no longer playing D&D, but then thought well what the hell would everyone else do as well.

I think that if SJG released a rules light fantasy setting they could grab a lot of refugees, and if Palladium let someone who is not "bat shit insane"* steer the ship for awhile they could do quite well.

*I really like palladium products, but KS needs to stop screwing around and get serious on the business end of things.

Quote from: James J SkachHere's a follow-up - if you're SJG, or Palladium, or White Wolf - what do you do?  Assume 4th Edition, for the sake of argument, tanks, so badly that D&D sales dwindle rapidly.

• Do you try to get gamers with your own rules set?
• Do you write something as a bridge game - something that mixes your game(s) and D&D to pull players over?
• Do you write a 3rd-edition-D&D-with-serial-numbers-filed-off (essentially a straight d20 with D&D trappings) to capture market?

Are there other options?

I was, originally, just thinking about GURPS and what it might take to go after those players no longer playing D&D, but then thought well what the hell would everyone else do as well.

It really depends on the hypothetical reason why 4e tanks. E.g....

Because nobody wants to play a D&D-like game anymore?

Because fans don't really want a new edition; they're happy playing 3.5 but they aren't buying any more PHBs because there are already plenty in circulation?

Because fans do want a new edition, it's just that WotC badly misjudges what they want in it?

What would be a reasonable definition of 4th ed failing?

Here is a more reasonable scenario - which may have happened when TSR died if it weren't for WotC stepping in and buying up the property. D&D's value as a brand is not solely tied to the game, but to a great extent its associated properties: novels, computer game licenses (even though this aspect has been most strangely mismanaged in the 2000s), and the overall "generic fantasy brand" which may be interesting to 80s rejects. I could imagine a situation where an investor picks up D&D as a license/fantasy property platform, and uses it to sell non-RPG content. Or even some lightly D&D-based game which uses the name and a few recognisable elements ("elf", "drow elf", "beholder"), but isn't really a roleplaying game. Or how about another case, where the D&D property is sold piecemeal?

Granted, the OGL means there would be some substitute, and at least in the short to mid term, 3rd party companies may increase in sales. In the long term, it would still be destructive.

Quote from: CabWhat would be a reasonable definition of 4th ed failing?

(1) Over the course of a reasonable time - I'd say a year to a year and a half - it doesn't sell even as many corebooks as 3.5.

(2) Over the course of the above reasonable time, few existing gamers have migrated to 4e and few new gamers pick it up.

-O

Quote from: CabWhat would be a reasonable definition of 4th ed failing?

Failure to meet sales quotas and mismanagement of the property license are going to be the biggest threats to the future of 4E.

D&D won't go under.

Besides there are all the OTHER publishers doing D&D/D20 compatible stuff for the past 2 years or more.

 Now that I recently looked over those charts again - take a look at the C&GR sales charts. (go on)  The title " d20 Misc. " shows up pretty damn often connected to at least 4 different publishers...and always within the top 15 or so ranked.

 Dungeons & Dragons ain't gonna go under - it might be mismanaged for awile....but it will never really "disappear".

 ...and look at my subtitle to the left, obviously I'm, not one of those biased toward it. I'm just looking at the facts and trends.


- Ed C.

Quote from: RockViperI think that if SJG released a rules light fantasy setting they could grab a lot of refugees, ..........

 I didn't see this the first time on a read through.

 If only they would, if only they would do that....

 with maybe a "powered by GURPS" section in the back of the book....but the front two thirds is independent of system mechanics - just really good maps and setting material.


- Ed C.

I think it's more likely that Hasbro will transform D&D into something unrecognizable and manage to grab the youth market while killing the existing market.  Some sort of Anime Harry Potter / Sailor Moon thing called 4th edition

Anyhow, I believe the industry could and would survive if it stepped up to the plate instead of rolling up in a ball and rocking back and forth whispering "Struck by lightning. Struck by lightning." as it did after T$R died.  Companies like Mongoose, Green Ronin, SJG, HERO, Palladium, Eden, and ICE would have to be prepared and have the alternatives ready to go and it would be better if they collaborated on a single format of some sort for ease of conversion.  I'd love to see HERO's point system as a sub structure blended with a detailed David Pulver vehicle and weapon design system, with GURPS providing the combat rules but with Palladium's defense mechanic, A Palladium/Rolemaster cross for character creation (it could be brilliant and simple, honest, no really!), Rolemaster critical hits and magic, and a detailed set of non-combat rules for things like inventing, repairing, spell research.

Oh well, RMSS is still my baby, but the thought of an ultimate system mash-up makes me drool.