Does anyone care to speculate on what could be the top ten current bestselling RPGs?
Is there any possible way to know? I suspect anything below the first five is nothing more than utter guesswork and wishful thinking.
RPGPundit
I think beyond the top 1 it will be guesswork, really.
First: D&D still holds top spot. It's the oldest has a large fanbase many of whom continue to buy new D&D products, in spite of still using 1E for their "rules" choice. It will continue to be top most likely until its majority fan base starts facing the rigors of age. While it has brought new people in, many of the younger set have already begun ditching tabletop play for MMORPG's. (Which offer the same rewards to those types of players as D&D does--power increases, gear of importance, but with added graphics power) I'd really like to see a poll of how many people play AD&D/D&D broken down by editions of core rules they are using.
Second (guess) is probably NWOD which builds on some OWOD and some other peripheral fans of "play the monster" style games.
Third (guess): Rifts. (despite the popularity of Exalted in certian places, I think its overspoken to actual play) where as Rifts is probably played more, sells still, and is talked about usually less (or at least not positively.)
It is quite possible that Mutants and Masterminds should gain third spot these days. But I base my guesses on how ubiquitous owning the core book seems (How many gamers I know online, offline, or have spoken too who own it)
Quote from: RPGPunditDoes anyone care to speculate on what could be the top ten current bestselling RPGs?
There is no way to know for certain. However, the estimates have kept the #1 and #2 spots (D&D and WoD, respectively) fairly consistant for multiple years, so you could be pretty confident in those two.
After that, you're talking differences smaller than the margin of error, IMO. Rifts, Castles & Crusades, Serenity, Shadowrun, Warhammer, Mutants & Masterminds, Exalted -- they're all in there somewhere, but you won't likely get any consensus on which system is in which slot, at least for any extended period of time.
Well according to Ken Hite, Palladium lost that ill-understood second place spot and are now smaller than Mongoose. I don't think Rifts is selling much any more, Sembieda's "problems" would seem to be consistent with this.
I'd guess the following:
#1 D&D
#2 Vampire
#3 GURPS
And after that, it get's too difficult to tell. I think it's even possible that lingering Star Wars materials might be at #4. Rifts is almost certainly #5 or lower nowadays.
Quote from: PaulChapmanAfter that, you're talking differences smaller than the margin of error, IMO.
Seriously?
Whacky.
I think Palladium lost their vaunted #3 a while ago.
One quick way (not necessarily totally representative) is to look at Amazon sales rankings of core and recent books.
Amazon Sales Rankings:
D&D 3.5 PHB - #2,953
Serenity RPG - #4,416 (I suspect we have some fan buyers here. Still, sales is sales!)
Mutants & Masterminds 2e - #10,975
The World of Darkness - #22,231 (worse than I expected)
D20 Modern - #28,828 (better than I suspected)
Exalted 2e - #40,404
Spycraft 2.0 - #51,902 (that surprised me... better than GURPS? Really?)
GURPS Basic Set: Characters - #71,860
Shadowrun 4e - #114,441
Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay - #173,752
Rifts Ultimate Edition - #192,956
Castles & Crusades Player's Guide New Printing - #234,588
True20 Adventure Roleplaying - #273,117
Conan RPG - #364,085
Babylon 5 RPG - #420,489
Hollow Earth Expedition - #541,215 (Not bad, for a newcomer)
Hero System 5th edition revised - #837,923 (and here I thought HERO was back from the brink)
FUDGE 10th anniversary edition - #844,248
Quote from: Caesar SlaadI think Palladium lost their vaunted #3 a while ago.
One quick way (not necessarily totally representative) is to look at Amazon sales rankings of core and recent books.
Good idea
I checked a few books from each to get a range of ratings.
D&D books -ratings around 1500-3000
Rifts: 100,000-300,000
C&C: 200,000-500,000
Gurps: 70,000-200,000
Exalted: 138,000-240,000
NWOD: 44,000-250,000
Star Wars: 96,000-300,000
Of course rankings bounce around since sales come and go with new releases. But it looks like D&D is far ahead and then there is a pack with NWoD holding a slight lead - pretty much what people had thought.
Quote from: RPGPunditDoes anyone care to speculate on what could be the top ten current bestselling RPGs?
Is there any possible way to know? I suspect anything below the first five is nothing more than utter guesswork and wishful thinking.
Ken Hite has a series of market analyses in his column,
Out of the Box (http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=listarticles&secid=10). He collects numbers from a couple source, notably Comic & Games Retailer's annual report, and the ICv2 Retailer's Guide to Games.
A good example would be the recent:
State of the Industry 2005: Another Such Victory Will Destroy Us (http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=viewarticle&artid=186)
Short form of the latter: 53% for WotC, 19% for White Wolf, and the rest is noise. Numbers differ on the latter: he suggests Green Ronin in third with around 3.5%, SJG in fourth with around 3%. The others: Palladium, Mongoose, and FanPro are each around 2%. Then Hero, Troll Lord, Privateer, Goodman Games, Margaret Weis Productions, and AEG are each around 1%.
While White Wolf took a beating in 2005, they have very consistently held onto second place. They had 19% in 2001, for example. So they're not shrinking. They have always been a distant second to D&D, even during the nineties -- with a maximum market share of no more than 30%.
But this isn't broken down by product. If we count best-selling, are we only looking at core book sales? Or do we count supplements?
Quote from: SilverlionI think beyond the top 1 it will be guesswork, really.
First: D&D still holds top spot. It's the oldest has a large fanbase many of whom continue to buy new D&D products, in spite of still using 1E for their "rules" choice. It will continue to be top most likely until its majority fan base starts facing the rigors of age. While it has brought new people in, many of the younger set have already begun ditching tabletop play for MMORPG's. (Which offer the same rewards to those types of players as D&D does--power increases, gear of importance, but with added graphics power) I'd really like to see a poll of how many people play AD&D/D&D broken down by editions of core rules they are using.
But wait, is D&D meant to cover all of D20?? Because to me, D&D and D20 are two different game systems; and if you separate them, then I'm willing to bet you easily have the number 1 and number 2 spots there, pushing WoD down to number 3...
QuoteSecond (guess) is probably NWOD which builds on some OWOD and some other peripheral fans of "play the monster" style games.
Again, same problem. We can't be sure that NWoD has been more successful and is more played than OWoD. We know that overall it lost a lot of the market; it basically failed to pull WW out of the loss spiral its been falling down for the last 5 years or so. However, you're probably right that after D20 these are the two most successful games. Again, we don't know for sure at this point which is 3rd and which is 4th.
QuoteThird (guess): Rifts. (despite the popularity of Exalted in certian places, I think its overspoken to actual play) where as Rifts is probably played more, sells still, and is talked about usually less (or at least not positively.)
It is quite possible that Mutants and Masterminds should gain third spot these days. But I base my guesses on how ubiquitous owning the core book seems (How many gamers I know online, offline, or have spoken too who own it)
Yup, RIFTS and M&M are two strong possibilities... but again we're pretty lost at this point.
Quote from: NicephorusGood idea
I checked a few books from each to get a range of ratings.
D&D books -ratings around 1500-3000
Rifts: 100,000-300,000
C&C: 200,000-500,000
Gurps: 70,000-200,000
Exalted: 138,000-240,000
NWOD: 44,000-250,000
Star Wars: 96,000-300,000
Of course rankings bounce around since sales come and go with new releases. But it looks like D&D is far ahead and then there is a pack with NWoD holding a slight lead - pretty much what people had thought.
This is probably the most accurate of many non-accurate means of judging this whole thing.
RPGPundit
Quote from: RPGPunditYup, RIFTS and M&M are two strong possibilities... but again we're pretty lost at this point.
My figures are suggesting that NWoD has slid down a bit, with exalted making up some ground, with M&M 2e very strong, but Rifts not even on the chart.
Which I can believe.
Quote from: jhkimKen Hite has a series of market analyses in his column, Out of the Box (http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=listarticles&secid=10). He collects numbers from a couple source, notably Comic & Games Retailer's annual report, and the ICv2 Retailer's Guide to Games.
He does a great job and is frank that his numbers are very limited. It comes only from game stores in in the organization. It ignores book stores and online sales. WOTC and White Wolf are the only companies that I see every time in non-specialty stores so their market share is probably bigger than Ken's numbers suggest. But Amazon rankings are reasonably close to his numbers.
Quote from: RPGPunditBut wait, is D&D meant to cover all of D20?? Because to me, D&D and D20 are two different game systems; and if you separate them, then I'm willing to bet you easily have the number 1 and number 2 spots there, pushing WoD down to number 3...
Hm. D20 Modern is ranked behind World of Darkness on Amazon, and isn't in the top 5 of ICv2's
2005 Report (http://www.icv2.com/articles/home/8407.html) list of top RPG lines. The others are way behind that. Checking today, I get:
D&D 3.5 PHB (http://www.amazon.com/Players-Handbook-Rulebook-Dungeons-Dragons/dp/0786928867/sr=1-2/qid=1165615468/ref=sr_1_2/002-8851511-6852806?ie=UTF8&s=books) - #3,620
D20 Modern (http://www.amazon.com/Core-Rulebook-Modern-Roleplaying-Game/dp/0786928360/sr=1-1/qid=1165615518/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-8851511-6852806?ie=UTF8&s=books) - #38,543
Star Wars RPG (http://www.amazon.com/Core-Rulebook-Star-Wars-Roleplaying/dp/0786917938) - #324,927
Quote from: RPGPunditWe can't be sure that NWoD has been more successful and is more played than OWoD. We know that overall it lost a lot of the market; it basically failed to pull WW out of the loss spiral its been falling down for the last 5 years or so. However, you're probably right that after D20 these are the two most successful games. Again, we don't know for sure at this point which is 3rd and which is 4th.
Well, the entire industry has been in a downward trend for the past several years, as Ken shows very clearly in his report. White Wolf's share has kept fairly steady during that time. At least, they were 19% in 2001 and still 19% now. They're down from the 22% they had in 2004, but that's shuffling back and forth, I think. I don't think you can put too much into year-to-year fluctuations of a few percent.
Quote from: RPGPunditBut wait, is D&D meant to cover all of D20?? Because to me, D&D and D20 are two different game systems; and if you separate them, then I'm willing to bet you easily have the number 1 and number 2 spots there, pushing WoD down to number 3...
Doubtful. An oft-repeated observation, as accurate as any you'll get, is "D&D has 50% of the market, WoD has 25% -- everybody else shares the rest."
And yes, that's D&D, not d20.
One thing that I noticed about the Amazon rankings is that the core book was often not the current high seller. To get a better perspective, try checking a few of the most recent releases.
Here are the September 2006 numbers...
1. Dungeons & Dragons
2. World of Darkness
3. Rifts
4. Shadowrun
5. Hero System 5th Edition
6. Castles & Crusades
7. Mutants & Masterminds
8. Serenity
9. GURPS
10.Dungeon Crawl Classics
11.Warhammer FRP
12.Sword and Sorcery
13.d20 Modern
14.All Flesh Must Be Eaten
15.Star Wars d20
16.Exalted
17.Conan
18.Ptolus
19.Dragonlance
20.Runequest
Market Share
Wizards of the Coast 59.79%
White Wolf 14.77%
Palladium 3.33%
Fantasy Productions 3.12%
Hero 2.81%
Troll Lord 2.82%
MWP 2.16%
Goodman Games 1.96%
Green Ronin 1.88%
Other 7.29%
Quote from: StuartHere are the September 2006 numbers...
From what?
Quote from: StuartHere are the September 2006 numbers...
From where?
But where ever they're from, it's good to see my mates working at C&C over at TLG are doing so well! :)
Pundit:
I don't seperate "D20" from D&D for this purpose because 70% of "D20" products are aimed at D&D use--the others are a smattering of OGL products and support for them--plus you have to consider that "D20" is not single company behind it (despite WOTC top ranking while D&D is..)
Those numbers are from Comics & Games Retailer (http://www.comicsandgamesretailer.com/).
Quote from: SilverlionPundit:
I don't seperate "D20" from D&D for this purpose because 70% of "D20" products are aimed at D&D use--the others are a smattering of OGL products and support for them--plus you have to consider that "D20" is not single company behind it (despite WOTC top ranking while D&D is..)
Umm... ok....
So you're saying that Mutants & Masterminds is really just D&D; or that it should be lumped in as "the same as D&D" when it comes to sales. Do people buying M&M 2e think that they're buying a D&D product? ditto with D20 modern? Conan? True20? Star Wars?
They're all just D&D?
RPGPundit
Intersting other numbers would be for someone to break all of this down by how many are using d20 as the "core" rule set. I mean, I know D&D is not d20, but it uses d20. So does d20 Modern and such. So how many on that list use d20? How much market share doe d20 have, starting with all D&D, D20 Modern, etc. products, and then including all of the products put out by all of the other market share vendors mentioned? How has d20 permeated the market?
I think you'd find that a huge portion of the market (mostly due to D&D influence) is based on d20. What does that tell us about the industry?
Oh...and thanks for the number Stuart!
Quote from: RPGPunditUmm... ok....
So you're saying that Mutants & Masterminds is really just D&D; or that it should be lumped in as "the same as D&D" when it comes to sales. Do people buying M&M 2e think that they're buying a D&D product? ditto with D20 modern? Conan? True20? Star Wars?
They're all just D&D?
RPGPundit
No. Not at all. You've misread what I said. I was ONLY talking about D&D in my list (D&D products produced by WOTC).
You added D20 as a seperate category which is not valid--because you can only count a
game line on its own. You can't lump Star Wars sales and M&M sales together for "top spots" because they aren't produced by the same company nor are they fully non-conversion required compatable, even if they were you can really only count a single product line for "top sales" M&M alone, D&D alone, True20 alone. Because your talking "top game sales" not top "category" sales.
Never mind that per the license for example M&M is NOT D20 but OGL.
And if "D20" is somehow a seperate "game" explain to me how True20 and Lone Wolf and Babylon 5, all get lumped together but D&D doesn't get lumped in with them...
Quote from: RPGPunditUmm... ok....
So you're saying that Mutants & Masterminds is really just D&D; or that it should be lumped in as "the same as D&D" when it comes to sales. Do people buying M&M 2e think that they're buying a D&D product? ditto with D20 modern? Conan? True20? Star Wars?
They're all just D&D?
RPGPundit
Nope, not what he's saying. Paul Chapman up thread spoke truth. The top companies are WotC with 50% of the market share, White Wolf with 25% of the market share, and everyone else sharing the remainder.
That means that anyone who is not WotC who uses the d20 system, or OGL, or something like M&M which is really different, or GURPS, or whatever, shares the remaining 25%.
That's a ballpark, but it's really close to the truth, as those numbers above say.
Quote from: SilverlionNo. Not at all. You've misread what I said. I was ONLY talking about D&D in my list (D&D products produced by WOTC).
You added D20 as a seperate category which is not valid--because you can only count a game line on its own. You can't lump Star Wars sales and M&M sales together for "top spots" because they aren't produced by the same company nor are they fully non-conversion required compatable, even if they were you can really only count a single product line for "top sales" M&M alone, D&D alone, True20 alone. Because your talking "top game sales" not top "category" sales.
I agree.
QuoteNever mind that per the license for example M&M is NOT D20 but OGL.
On a practical level there's zero difference.
QuoteAnd if "D20" is somehow a seperate "game" explain to me how True20 and Lone Wolf and Babylon 5, all get lumped together but D&D doesn't get lumped in with them...
They shouldn't, its true. But then, neither should WoD. You should have to count Vampire, Werewolf, and Mage as three seperate games, in which case I have a feeling some of them would fall well behind some of the individual D20 games.
RPGPundit
And WW has less than 20% of the market share. But we're talking about games, not companies here.
RPGPundit
Quote from: RPGPunditYou should have to count Vampire, Werewolf, and Mage as three seperate games, in which case I have a feeling some of them would fall well behind some of the individual D20 games.
That might have been the case in the old days, but now all three of those are just supplement lines to
World of Darkness. They aren't even playable without the core book.
I'm kind of surprised that there isn't some sort of accounting of industry sales, some sort of compilation of the data.
Quote from: ZalmoxisI'm kind of surprised that there isn't some sort of accounting of industry sales, some sort of compilation of the data.
There is -- see my previous 2 posts.
My sources tell me that SR4 is doing well. The Limited Edition of 1000 copies is sold out, and the standard core book is heading for a fourth printing.
Quote from: StuartThere is -- see my previous 2 posts.
I should have clarified, I mean with a more detailed breakdown. Your numbers give a good general view, but I meant something in more detail.
Quote from: JongWKMy sources tell me that SR4 is doing well. The Limited Edition of 1000 copies is sold out, and the standard core book is heading for a fourth printing.
Weird...there are 2 or 3 minty fresh copies of SR4 at a local used book store here, leading me to believe they were dumped by a distributor (along with a buttload of Eberron miscellanea).
Quote from: ZalmoxisI should have clarified, I mean with a more detailed breakdown. Your numbers give a good general view, but I meant something in more detail.
The magazine has a lot more detail -- avg. units sold, increases/decreases from last month, CCGs, Comics, Board Games, etc.
Quote from: StuartThe magazine has a lot more detail -- avg. units sold, increases/decreases from last month, CCGs, Comics, Board Games, etc.
Oh ok
Quote from: Elliot WilenWeird...there are 2 or 3 minty fresh copies of SR4 at a local used book store here, leading me to believe they were dumped by a distributor (along with a buttload of Eberron miscellanea).
FanPro is sold out, which doesn't mean every store is. This week's errata update is what's going into the upcoming fourth printing.
Quote from: StuartThere is -- see my previous 2 posts.
It's good but it really reflects game stores, not game companies. That probably counts for roughly half of total sales.
Yeah, I'm sure there's a lot more to a company's overall sales -- but I haven't found a single source with more detailed stats. It's interesting to compare RPG, Comic, CCG and Boardgame sales as well -- and to make note of which games are bookstores and which ones are not...
I can tell you the RPG sales at my bookstore:
1. D&D
2. WoD (mortal, although it's a requirement to play #3)
3. Vampire: the Requiem
4. Mage: the Awakening
5. Exalted (also a note, 3, 4, and 5 are VERY close)
6. Werewolf: the Forsaken
7. Star Wars RPG
8. D20 Modern
9-10 - Shadowrun, Rifts Ultimate Edition, WHFRP, (our innitial shipment of these games was 2 copies, we sold 2 copies of each of the games and have not and probably will not order them again)
According to the Game industry magazine COMICS & GAMES RETAILER, the March 2007 issue - these were the top sellers for December 2006 :
1. Dungeons & Dragons Wizards of the Coast
2. World of Darkness White Wolf
3.Warhammer FRP Black Industries
4. GURPS Steve Jackson Games
5. Dungeon Crawl Classics Goodman Games
6. Hero System 5th Edition Hero
7. Rifts Palladium
8. Babylon 5 Mongoose
9. d20 Modern Wizards of the Coast
10. Shadowrun Fantasy Productions
11. Iron Kingdoms Privateer Press
12. Star Wars d20 Wizards of the Coast
13. Serenity MWP
14. Castles & Crusades Troll Lord
15. Exalted White Wolf
16. Mutants & Masterminds Green Ronin
17. Conan Mongoose
18. Deadlands Pinnacle (Great White , really)
19. Savage Worlds Great White (Pinnacle)
20. A Game of Thrones Guardians of Order
Just posting this - because its the most up to date info we have at the store and I thought some of you may find it interesting.
The above chart is based on the Average UNIT SALES for retailers' best-selling Role-Playing Games. The Magazine usually accepts info/results from game stores that are outside of the conitinental U.S.
- E.W.C.
The games sales data from C&GR is based on sales numbers from retailers who send in their store's info to the magazine. These are probably some of the more savvy retailers, but it represents the industry in the same way that a terrarium represents the Earth. We're only seeing a piece of the whole.
Of course, manufacturers (naturally) don't want to share their sales numbers with the public or their competition, so it's probably the best source of data out there, unless you have access to big distributor Alliance Games sales sheets. :)
Quote from: Mark PlemmonsThe games sales data from C&GR is based on sales numbers from retailers who send in their store's info to the magazine. These are probably some of the more savvy retailers, but it represents the industry in the same way that a terrarium represents the Earth. We're only seeing a piece of the whole.
Nor do they reflect direct sales through online stores, right?
Quote from: JongWKNor do they reflect direct sales through online stores, right?
You are Correct on that.
Those numbers are mostly a pretty good indicator of what Brick & Mortar stores are doing for that month. Which is a useful thing to know if you are working at one.
For example , last year RIFTS /Palladium suddenly went from #19 to to the top 5 between 2 issues of the magazine. The only thing pushing that to happen was that online appeal to fans that Palladium did. The magazine even noted that as the likely cause. We had NO new product from Palladium that would have driven sakles like that.
Usually every time a publisher releases a new book or product related to their line there is a noticeable "up-tick" in sales for that RPG line.
- E.W.C.
Quote from: Mark PlemmonsThe games sales data from C&GR is based on sales numbers from retailers who send in their store's info to the magazine. These are probably some of the more savvy retailers, but it represents the industry in the same way that a terrarium represents the Earth. We're only seeing a piece of the whole.
Of course, manufacturers (naturally) don't want to share their sales numbers with the public or their competition, so it's probably the best source of data out there, unless you have access to big distributor Alliance Games sales sheets. :)
Off-Topic: Mark, i've sent you a PM. :)
Sorry guys, back to game sales...
Quote from: Caesar SlaadOne quick way (not necessarily totally representative) is to look at Amazon sales rankings of core and recent books.
Given the pattern of what I buy on Amazon, I'm not sure that's representative at all. People could be buying on Amazon for the discount, because it's not available in their local game, comic, or book store, because it was available but sold out, and so on.
For their part, Palladium estimates themselves usually bouncing around somewhere in the Top 5, Rifts being the big seller, natch, with Heroes Unlimited 2 being their #2-selling line.
Good to see that C&C beat out Exalted. :hehe:
No 'True20' in the top 20, eh? Hmmm.