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[Dice] What are the odds?

Started by Drohem, October 16, 2009, 09:34:05 PM

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Drohem

October 16, 2009, 09:34:05 PM
This happened in my regular face-to-face group this week.  We enter a fight where there are four goblin bowmen.  Our group leader runs up ahead of everyone to attack, and the four bowmen all target the crazy charging dude.  The GM picked up (4) d20 dice, at the same time, and rolled a '20' on all four dice.

What are the odds on rolling a '20' on each of all four dice at once?

Halfjack

#1
October 16, 2009, 09:36:36 PM
1 in 20 to the fourth power.

Edit: sorry, maybe not so useful. 1 in 160,000 or 0.000625%.
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arminius

#3
October 16, 2009, 11:33:25 PM
To put it in perspective, though, it's more likely that you'll see another one than that you'll win the lottery.

Narf the Mouse

#4
October 16, 2009, 11:55:34 PM
Well, there's an equal chance of rolling a 1 in 20 as there is as rolling any other number and there's an equal chance of rolling 1 in 20 on any dice, so 50%*50%, or 25%. :D
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#5
October 17, 2009, 12:17:33 AM
Quote from: Narf the Mouse;338817Well, there's an equal chance of rolling a 1 in 20 as there is as rolling any other number and there's an equal chance of rolling 1 in 20 on any dice, so 50%*50%, or 25%. :D

I've seen math like that in rule books.

Not so funny there. :duh:

JasperAK

#6
October 17, 2009, 01:16:11 AM
Were they loaded? Should have bought Game Science Dice. ;)

Malleus Arianorum

#7
October 17, 2009, 07:39:58 AM
p=1/(20^4) is technicaly correct but I should add that since you wern't specificaly looking for the Event "four out of four nat 20s" what you actualy observed was the Event "Awesome happens" which is way more probable because the Event "Awesome happens" has an infinite number of outcomes that satisfy it.
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Drohem

#8
October 17, 2009, 12:34:33 PM
Quote from: Halfjack;3387991 in 20 to the fourth power.

Edit: sorry, maybe not so useful. 1 in 160,000 or 0.000625%.

Thanks! :)

Quote from: Malleus Arianorum;338882p=1/(20^4) is technicaly correct but I should add that since you wern't specificaly looking for the Event "four out of four nat 20s" what you actualy observed was the Event "Awesome happens" which is way more probable because the Event "Awesome happens" has an infinite number of outcomes that satisfy it.

Yes, it was awsome, especially since it wasn't my character that was hit by all four bowmen at once. ;)
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