Here a little thought exercise. Suppose D&D 4th Edition is a crap game. A undeniable crappy game. A lot of money is invested and it bombs after a few month. Then Hasbro throttles D&D's (and WoTC) budget limiting what WotC can do to fix it and opens up a window of opportunity.

This not to debate the merits of D&D or D20 but rather what it would take for any rpg to dethrone D&D.

My own thoughts include

1) A D20 publisher version of D&D becomes the new standard (C&C, OSRIC II)
2) Somebody buys D&D from Hasbro aka (WoTC and TSR) and make a better 5th Edition
3) Company makes the new hit RPG (sort of like Magic the Gathering but for RPGs)
4) Market fragments and after several years one of the competing games develops enough of a social network to become the new standard.
5) The internet is used to develop or a adapt a RPG that mimics and aid Tabletop far better than a MMORPG or current apps like Fantasy Grounds. True table tap gaming goes the way of wargames and becomes a niche.

Before OGL and D20 I would said #4, but my feeling is on #1 because of the OGL.

intresting topic, do mind if I move it to the genral forum? It should really go there. :pundit:

I don't actually think D&D will always and forever be the #1 game. I think the moment someone comes up with something better, that's what people will play.

And I will happily be one of those people.

So I guess I pick #3.

Hey...this looks familiar

My goal was to combine #3 and part of #5 (exclude the tabletop as dodo part). It's the holy grail of gaming, to me.  To find a way to let the computer do the hard stuff, while keeping the feel of tabletop and making it all accessible whether over the Internet or around the same table. Hybrid CRPG and TTRPG.

If, however, the situation plays out like you describe and 4.0 is really really shitty, There are a couple of combinations I think could happen:

• It will be #4 until one of the others occur.
• People just keep playing 3.X until one of the others occurs. This includes Hasbro putting out 5.0, or more likely 4.5, quickly to recapture the market. Don't laugh - New Coke anyone?
• It will be #1 combined with #2 with the new "star" d20 publisher buying the rights to the D&D specific stuff (like Magic Missle, etc.)

Just my 8 farthings...

Quote from: Abyssal MawI don't actually think D&D will always and forever be the #1 game. I think the moment someone comes up with something better, that's what people will play.

They'll also have to be able to ensure massive coverage for the game and advertising if they really want to dethrone D&D.

To Moderators

 Feel free to move to whatever forum you feel is best.

Rob Conley

I think tabletop gaming would continue to decline.  I don't think a game would replace it, rather existing properties would take mostly proportional shares of the remaining market.  Over time the player based continues to shrink, electronic media continue to compete, and big publishers fail.  RPGs continue to move towards the internet and small press publishing.

Love it or hate it, D&D is huge and results in many, many new gamers being created.  I think its loss would harm the entire industry.

I think if 4th edition did that badly, Hasbro would simply sell off the rights to D&D and let someone mess with it.  

With a big company like Hasbro, games that don't sell are gotten rid of.

Quote from: James McMurrayThey'll also have to be able to ensure massive coverage for the game and advertising if they really want to dethrone D&D.

Nope. They just have to be better. Word of mouth will do it.

1.  Hasbro decide the return on D&D is insufficient to merit continued publishing.

2.  Hasbro decide that the rights to D&D may still have value, and so refuse to sell them on (not as unlikely as it sounds actually).

3.  D&D therefore goes out of print.

4.  Something else is needed, though more likely the industry pretty much dies off at that point and we are left with hobbyists and amateur publishing.

Quote from: Abyssal MawNope. They just have to be better. Word of mouth will do it.

Word of Mouth is a form of advertising.

I don't think it's enough though. You also need posters and displays in game stores to draw peoples' eyes away from their usual second choices. A good artist (or at least flashy covers) is also necessary.

No matter how good a game is, it won't catch on enough to claim it replaced D&D if it's got black and white line drawings on the cover of its spiral notebook.

Quote from: James McMurrayWord of Mouth is a form of advertising.

I don't think it's enough though. You also need posters and displays in game stores to draw peoples' eyes away from their usual second choices. A good artist (or at least flashy covers) is also necessary.

No matter how good a game is, it won't catch on enough to claim it replaced D&D if it's got black and white line drawings on the cover of its spiral notebook.

If it's better than D&D, those production values will be part of what makes it better.

I think of it like World Of Warcraft.

I heard about it. I was familiar with Warcraft but not a fan. I just thought it was some RTS, like the other Warcraft games.

Than I heard from my friends who were playing it. and then I heard about it on Livejournal. Pretty soon I was reading about it on blogs. I read about other people talking about it on message boards. I checked into it, and looked to see if it would run on my (crappy at the time) computer. And it turns out, it runs fine on fairly lame computers...according to people on Livejournal.

So at that point I bought it and started playing it.  

Having owned and played loads of MMOs, I can definitely say, World of Warcraft deserves to be number 1. Its the most fun.

Quote from: Balbinus4.  Something else is needed, though more likely the industry pretty much dies off at that point and we are left with hobbyists and amateur publishing.

I disagree.

We'll have "Truncheons and Flagons: a d20 game" if D&D goes away.  Unless WoTC can pull the OGL somehow, I really don't think D&D will go away.

Quote from: Abyssal MawIf it's better than D&D, those production values will be part of what makes it better.

I think of it like World Of Warcraft.

I heard about it. I was familiar with Warcraft but not a fan. I just thought it was some RTS, like the other Warcraft games.

Than I heard from my friends who were playing it. and then I heard about it on Livejournal. Pretty soon I was reading about it on blogs. I read about other people talking about it on message boards. I checked into it, and looked to see if it would run on my (crappy at the time) computer. And it turns out, it runs fine on fairly lame computers...according to people on Livejournal.

So at that point I bought it and started playing it.  

Having owned and played loads of MMOs, I can definitely say, World of Warcraft deserves to be number 1. Its the most fun.

That's possible I suppose, but look at how much advertising WoW did (and still does). Odds are pretty good that there are already games out there better than D&D, but word of mouth's chances of starting an international craze are pretty slim.

Guess we'll just have to agree to differ on this one.

Quote from: Abyssal MawNope. They just have to be better. Word of mouth will do it.

What color is the sky in your world?

-O