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The Formula for D&D's Total Failure

Started by RPGPundit, November 23, 2024, 03:47:37 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Hzilong

#15
With the subject of the "modern audience" that Yosemitemike mentions, nfortunately I think there is a bit more here for WotC to parasitize. Unlike video games and movies, TTRPG is still relatively niche despite its growth in the past decade. I can say that a large portion of that growth comes from normies and full on DEI cult adherents. I have seen these people buy WotC slop with enthusiasm and disregard for finances that rivals chronic gamblers. They absolutely buy the bs alternate covers and preorder every single book and a lot of the ancillary products.

Maybe these people will move on to more popular pastures eventually. But, for now, it does seem they constitute a real customer base.
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yosemitemike

Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 04:19:45 AMI have seen these people buy WotC slop with enthusiasm and disregard for finances that rivals chronic gamblers. They absolutely buy the bs alternate covers and preorder every single book and a lot of the ancillary products.

This isn't really the modern audience that people are talking about.  These are brand loyalists.  They are buying the new D&D because it's the new D&D.  They hypothetical modern audience is people who would not have bought these products but now will because they are people in the book who look like them or have the same sexuality as them.  That's why there is such a heavy emphasis on representation in these things.  The past several years have shown this belief to be, to a very large extent, delusional.  For example, movies like The Marvels and Madame Web were made for a hypothetical female audience that didn't watch super hero movies but would watch them if they were female-centric and female lead.  The box office for these movies shows pretty clearly that this audience didn't exist in any significant numbers.  Not very many people went to see these movies and most of the few who did were men.  For the most part, they were probably the same men who go to see all of the Marvel movies because they are Marvel movies.  That's not the modern audience.  That's the die-hard portion of their old audience that they haven't drive away. 
"I am certain, however, that nothing has done so much to destroy the juridical safeguards of individual freedom as the striving after this mirage of social justice."― Friedrich Hayek
Another former RPGnet member permanently banned for calling out the staff there on their abdication of their responsibilities as moderators and admins and their abject surrender to the whims of the shrillest and most self-righteous members of the community.

Hzilong

#17
I was more making the point that in most other entertainment media, the "modern audience" is a hallucination. Here, however, it seems that there might actually be enough true believers in the cause that are willing to spend money that they can actually keep a niche hobby on life support for some time. Basically, WotC has magically managed to find the modern audience and the catering does work. Granted, this is anecdotal. I don't have the financial data, just that I personally know a lot of default liberal types and diehard progressives who see RPGs as an extension of their activism. It's probably because of my profession and the fact that I grew up in California that I may be seeing more of these people than the average person.


To clarify, I'm not saying they are not also brand loyalists, I'm saying RPGs as an industry are niche enough that most rpg companies don't have the same overhead as something like a movie or game studio. We saw from IPs like Star Wars and Marvels, brand loyalty can only go so far . RPG companies don't have the same scale of risk and can stay afloat on the money of loyalists and sycophants.so when you combine the activist and brand loyalty customer bases, you get a business that is at least able to survive, even if it does mean paying off 1000 employees right around Christmas. Those that got fired are out of luck, but the company and name recognition remain.

Side note: it's really funny watching self avowed socialists, who frequently say we should abolish capitalism, going to bat for Hasbro and WotC.
Resident lurking Chinaman

yosemitemike

Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 05:56:26 AMTo clarify, I'm not saying they are not also brand loyalists, I'm saying RPGs as an industry are niche enough that most rpg companies don't have the same overhead as something like a movie or game studio.

I think that's true for a small, niche company like Evil Hat that can get by on selling PbtA shovelware to a niche audience.  I think that's true of all the companies who exist entirely to keep existing books available in pdf format since this costs practically nothing.  I don't think it's true of D&D.  WotC operates on an entirely different scale than the entire rest of the industry except for maybe Paizo.  Is this audience enough to sustain the company?  All of the lay-offs they have done seem to suggest that the answer to this question is "No". 
"I am certain, however, that nothing has done so much to destroy the juridical safeguards of individual freedom as the striving after this mirage of social justice."― Friedrich Hayek
Another former RPGnet member permanently banned for calling out the staff there on their abdication of their responsibilities as moderators and admins and their abject surrender to the whims of the shrillest and most self-righteous members of the community.

RPGPundit

Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 04:19:45 AMWith the subject of the "modern audience" that Yosemitemike mentions, nfortunately I think there is a bit more here for WotC to parasitize. Unlike video games and movies, TTRPG is still relatively niche despite its growth in the past decade. I can say that a large portion of that growth comes from normies and full on DEI cult adherents. I have seen these people buy WotC slop with enthusiasm and disregard for finances that rivals chronic gamblers. They absolutely buy the bs alternate covers and preorder every single book and a lot of the ancillary products.

Maybe these people will move on to more popular pastures eventually. But, for now, it does seem they constitute a real customer base.

It's a base that has been steadily shrinking for the last 3 years, coinciding with the increasing dedication to wokeness in their book content and art.
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Exploderwizard

Eventually even the dedicated brand loyalists will stop buying if there is no useful gaming content to be found in the products.
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#21
Quote from: yosemitemike on November 25, 2024, 07:23:21 AM
Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 05:56:26 AMTo clarify, I'm not saying they are not also brand loyalists, I'm saying RPGs as an industry are niche enough that most rpg companies don't have the same overhead as something like a movie or game studio.

I think that's true for a small, niche company like Evil Hat that can get by on selling PbtA shovelware to a niche audience.  I think that's true of all the companies who exist entirely to keep existing books available in pdf format since this costs practically nothing.  I don't think it's true of D&D.  WotC operates on an entirely different scale than the entire rest of the industry except for maybe Paizo.  Is this audience enough to sustain the company?  All of the lay-offs they have done seem to suggest that the answer to this question is "No". 

I think you are basically right, though I wouldn't totally discount Hzilong's point. The Woke % of the potential audience for an MCU movie is tiny. I think the Woke and Woke-ish % of the potential audience for D&D is significantly higher. There are a lot of Left-Liberals in urban centres. Most of them are Millennials, not Gen Z. Most of them aren't actually Trans Furries or activists, but they do ascribe to Woke morality. WoTC is certainly losing sales by excluding non-Woke customers, but they can probably keep going for a while. A theoretical Woke product that was actually decent quality might sell well, if such a thing were possible. Stuff like Tales from the Radiant Citadel is crap as well as Woke, and these affect sales separately. The really committed Woke activist who will buy any crap because it has a rainbow on it is very thin on the ground. But something like 3PP Odyssey of the Dragonlords can sell well by appealing to left-liberals while being decent quality.

One thing about good quality products with left-liberal morality - you still need to hire good writers! Good = talent + hard work. I have a left liberal RPG writer friend who works hard and does good stuff. Her "cosy roleplay" stuff for Ghostfire makes a LOT of money by RPG standards.  But WoTC-Hasbro seem to be consistently terrible at actually making good product.  The Wokeness is just more poo on top of the shit cake.
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Omega

Quote from: yosemitemike on November 25, 2024, 05:06:05 AM
Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 04:19:45 AMI have seen these people buy WotC slop with enthusiasm and disregard for finances that rivals chronic gamblers. They absolutely buy the bs alternate covers and preorder every single book and a lot of the ancillary products.

This isn't really the modern audience that people are talking about.  These are brand loyalists.  They are buying the new D&D because it's the new D&D.


Pretty much this. You'll even hear them proudly accept that they are nothing but cattle over on BGG. They will give the company money... BECAUSE! They are not even cultists at that point.

blackstone

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Jaeger

Quote from: Hzilong on November 25, 2024, 04:19:45 AMMaybe these people will move on to more popular pastures eventually. But, for now, it does seem they constitute a real customer base.

Seem being the operative word here.

They are loud and they dogpile. They give the illusion that they are some large untapped demographic, but this has been proven to be a demonstrable lie.

We have seen the result of DEI "chasing modern audiences" in Tv, Movies, Marvel and DC comics, and now in video games.

And the results have universally been creative and financial disaster.


Quote from: yosemitemike on November 25, 2024, 05:06:05 AMThis isn't really the modern audience that people are talking about.  These are brand loyalists.  They are buying the new D&D because it's the new D&D. ...

^THIS^ yosemitemike speaks the truth.

The 'brand loyalist' is the cucked hobbyist currently holding D&D up.

Unfortunately, they will continue to do so for a long time yet.


Quote from: Exploderwizard on November 25, 2024, 11:41:29 AMEventually even the dedicated brand loyalists will stop buying if there is no useful gaming content to be found in the products.

As Tv, Movies, Comics, and video games have shown, things have to get exceptionally bad for the loyalists to reach the point where they desert their favorite IP...

D&D 2024's nonsense is just a starting point. It still basically delivers 5e gameplay. The game line over the next five to ten years will show how far they are willing to go.

I think it will take much more to tip them away from D&D versus other media like Tv, Movies, Comics, and video games because of the massive network effect D&D has.

It is just such a massive incentive to stay on the reservation, even as they shove SJW slop down your throat.

WOTC will have to do a full-on bud lite style trooning of the game before the brand loyalists start to jump ship in significant numbers.

And no, they're not even remotely at that level yet.
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RPGPundit

I think that a large section of the people still buying WotC products fit into one of two types:
1. People who started on 5e and have no idea that there are real alternatives.
2. OCD nerds who have an obsessive compulsion to buy EVERYTHING that has the thing they're obsessed with; many of these hate all the recent WotC books but keep buying it because if they didn't they wouldn't have "teh whole collection".
LION & DRAGON: Medieval-Authentic OSR Roleplaying is available now! You only THINK you\'ve played \'medieval fantasy\' until you play L&D.


My Blog:  http://therpgpundit.blogspot.com/
The most famous uruguayan gaming blog on the planet!

NEW!
Check out my short OSR supplements series; The RPGPundit Presents!


Dark Albion: The Rose War! The OSR fantasy setting of the history that inspired Shakespeare and Martin alike.
Also available in Variant Cover form!
Also, now with the CULTS OF CHAOS cult-generation sourcebook

ARROWS OF INDRA
Arrows of Indra: The Old-School Epic Indian RPG!
NOW AVAILABLE: AoI in print form

LORDS OF OLYMPUS
The new Diceless RPG of multiversal power, adventure and intrigue, now available.

jhkim

Quote from: blackstone on November 26, 2024, 08:32:20 AMDude, I'm sorry to hear about Meatball. Losing a pet it never easy. They're family.

Yes, sorry to hear about Meatball. I've been offline for two weeks for a family funeral. Take time to deal with it.

Omega

Quote from: RPGPundit on November 28, 2024, 04:04:08 AMI think that a large section of the people still buying WotC products fit into one of two types:
1. People who started on 5e and have no idea that there are real alternatives.
2. OCD nerds who have an obsessive compulsion to buy EVERYTHING that has the thing they're obsessed with; many of these hate all the recent WotC books but keep buying it because if they didn't they wouldn't have "teh whole collection".

Another is the players who just blindly believe wotc and their mouthpieces that this is "Still 5e"

These are a bigger problem as they will buy something thinking it is still 5e compatible. Then learn it is very not and are stuck with a book they either cant use or will have to heavily mod to get it back to actual 5e. And a portion will then buy more fake 5e books because otherwise they have a useless book.

Also. Is anyone else getting an intermittent "You have already submitted this" flag?

Others will keep buying because they can not seem to conceive that anyone would lie.

Then there are the ADD wanna-bes who will rage against whatever new sin wotc has comitted. Then all is forgiven at the first bone wotc throws the dog. Then rage again when wotc turns around and kicks them AGAIN!

And lastly there are those in complete denial that fake 5e is not fucking 5.5. Its a new system and it is not "backwards compatible."