Quote from: estar;863790Barring some breakthrough, I think there are some fundamental limits on what can be done with A.I. I feel we will not see sentient computers in our lifetime. However we become very good at capturing human knowledge and exposing it effectively through software. For tasks there will software that will seem almost human like. But tabletop RPG (or any of the arts) won't be one of them.

I am like the least computer savvy person on the planet, so that question is way above my pay grade. Do you think if we were able to fully map out and understand the human brain, that it would be possible to replicate that level of complexity with an AI (and maybe get a bit of solo table top in) or do you think there is something fundamental that just makes it an impossibility for all time.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;863842I am like the least computer savvy person on the planet, so that question is way above my pay grade. Do you think if we were able to fully map out and understand the human brain, that it would be possible to replicate that level of complexity with an AI (and maybe get a bit of solo table top in) or do you think there is something fundamental that just makes it an impossibility for all time.

On the very prospect of getting a very fine-scale view of human brain functions in the next half-century, I hesitate to bet. Developments in precision of non-invasive techniques have been amazing, but there might be no substitute for nanotechnology probes to collect really detailed data.

However, that is really not directly pertinent to advances in AI, which have been going on mainly by developing systems experimentally and through evolution rather than by copying human hardware.

Quote from: BedrockBrendan;863842I am like the least computer savvy person on the planet, so that question is way above my pay grade. Do you think if we were able to fully map out and understand the human brain, that it would be possible to replicate that level of complexity with an AI (and maybe get a bit of solo table top in) or do you think there is something fundamental that just makes it an impossibility for all time.

Sentience and awareness may be a result of quantum level effects in which case on thing that can simulate a human brain is something like a human brain not silicon. But we just don't know at this point. There is progress at isolating parts of human intelligence and capturing them in software like language translation. So perhaps there will be a black swan moment where it all falls into place.

Quote from: Gronan of Simmerya;863647In other words, TSR in 1982 had by itself 92% of the 2006 market value.  In 1985 when FASA hired me to write "Imbalance of Power," a module for their Star Trek RPG, their estimated first print run was 5000 or 6000 because they wanted a small first run.  Nowadays that's considered a major size print run for one of the major players in the RPG game.

See? Now the interesting question is just why indie games don't enjoy those relative kinds of sales these days. Or are we saying they do but due to competition the pie of money is too spread out... and/or they just suck?

Or maybe all of the above.

Quote from: tenbones;863970See? Now the interesting question is just why indie games don't enjoy those relative kinds of sales these days. Or are we saying they do but due to competition the pie of money is too spread out... and/or they just suck?

Or maybe all of the above.

I think the answer is more in the middle, and all of the above.

Quote from: jhkim;863560Story games are just a small niche within the niche of tabletop RPGs, which is strongly dominated by D&D and Pathfinder. However, as far as I can tell, Pundit's games are an even smaller subniche. If I look around at game conventions, I regularly see people running games by Jason Morningstar, for example (Fiasco, The Shab-al-Hiri Roach, etc.), but I have not yet seen anyone running games by Pundit (Forward to Adventure, GnomeMurdered, Lords of Olympus, or Arrows of Indra).

That might have to do with all those games being non-RPG microgames that are very suited for one-shot play, while my books (gnomemurdered excluded) are designed best for campaigns and long-term play.

And that indie-forge cultists are famous for frequenting Cons and using them as a venue to try to proselytize.

Quote from: soviet;863568It may be worse than you think. I'm someone that no-one ever heard of, right? As a game designer if not a forum poster. I made a game called Other Worlds. I don't have my own forum. I don't maintain a daily blog. I put zero effort into self promotion and the small web presence my game does have is woefully basic and only occasionally updated.

Yet my game is an electrum best seller on DTRPG, putting it in the top 3.43% of products. And my sales figures are low, in the hundreds but not the thousands. Numbers like Vincent Baker's would be a pipe dream for me. I'm in profit and I'm happy enough, but man the bar I have set is low.

Arrows of Indra is a copper best seller, two orders of magnitude below electrum, putting it in the top 12.34%. Lords of Olympus and Dark Albion are silver best sellers, one order of magnitude below electrum, putting them in the top 10.1%.  

First, your stats don't sound like they make sense to me.  Although I guess maybe it might work if (almost) all your sales are happening only on DTRPG and you're talking quite high hundreds.

Second, you're saying "order of magnitude". I don't think you know what that means. Either that, and you do know what it means and you're using it wrong on purpose.

On DTRPG the difference between Copper and Electrum is the difference between the top 12.34% of all products on the site and the top 3.43% of all products on the site (with Silver being products in the top 10.09%).  So trying to make it sound like if you've sold 900 books on DTRPG that means Lords of Olympus must have sold 90 is ridiculous and stupid of you to attempt.

I'll note that on RPGnow, Other Worlds is only Copper rated, which is the same as Dark Albion even though Dark Albion has been out for a few months while OW has been out for years now. Arrows of Indra is also Copper rated, but it switched distributors and as a result of this had all its previous sales WIPED, before which it was Silver.  That means that as a product, Arrows got all the way to Silver, then from absolute zero got all the way back to Copper again.  The values mean something else there compared to DTRPG too; Copper is top 9.4%, while Silver is top 5.56%.

So again, that means Arrows of Indra became one of the top 5% of all products for sale on the entire site, then from nothing and more than a year after its first release got all the way back to being one of the top 10% of all products for sale on that entire site. It did close to the same thing on DTRPG, getting to copper after having all its sales figures wiped.

And Dark Albion is right on your book's heels after about 6 months of life compared to your book's years.

Oh, and yeah: Dark Albion on either of those sites? That's just the PDF. It doesn't even count the Hardcover sales, from Lulu, or the Softcover sales, from Amazon.
I can tell you this: Dark Albion has been by far the best selling RPG book I ever wrote; followed by its predecessor AoI, followed by its predecessor LoO.  Every single product I make does better than the last one.

Quote from: RPGPundit;864002I can tell you this: Dark Albion has been by far the best selling RPG book I ever wrote; followed by its predecessor AoI, followed by its predecessor LoO.  Every single product I make does better than the last one.

well congratulations on that at least. Do you have a dayjob you can quit or are you doing RPG-related stuff full time these days?

Quote from: RPGPundit;863999That might have to do with all those games being non-RPG microgames that are very suited for one-shot play, while my books (gnomemurdered excluded) are designed best for campaigns and long-term play.

My guess is that it might have to do with those games having better visibility and distribution than your books.

I saw varying selections of them at stores around the world (Cologne, Paris, London, Leicester), and consequently, played at conventions.

Quote from: Dirk Remmecke;864013My guess is that it might have to do with those games having better visibility and distribution than your books.

I saw varying selections of them at stores around the world (Cologne, Paris, London, Leicester), and consequently, played at conventions.

Perhaps; I've Arrows of Indra in game stores, and I've been told by my publisher that it would appear Dark Albion may be at some bookstores. In any case, I don't know if brick & mortar makes as huge a difference any more.

Quote from: TristramEvans;864005well congratulations on that at least. Do you have a dayjob you can quit or are you doing RPG-related stuff full time these days?

Not quite, but my various RPG-related activities account for about one-third of my income stream these days, more or less.

Quote from: RPGPundit;864015Perhaps; I've Arrows of Indra in game stores, and I've been told by my publisher that it would appear Dark Albion may be at some bookstores. In any case, I don't know if brick & mortar makes as huge a difference any more.

It does around here.  There's still a market for instant gratification with a solid object in my town.

Quote from: Christopher Brady;864017It does around here.  There's still a market for instant gratification with a solid object in my town.

Is it instant gratification or people wanting to see the product before buying it? Or just more Luddite tendencies in TTRPG people? I see an awful lot of people who don't buy PDFs. (Or they buy the print/PDF bundle, but never read the PDF.)

I think that sometimes people like to actually have a tactile object, or find it easier to flip through a book. Sometimes, though, it's just a bit tougher for some to read on a screen.

Quote from: ArrozConLeche;864057I think that sometimes people like to actually have a tactile object, or find it easier to flip through a book. Sometimes, though, it's just a bit tougher for some to read on a screen.

That's what I meant by Luddite, I didn't mean it in a negative sense. (I carry a railroad pocket watch which I consider Luddite. But I only buy PDFs... Go figure.)