Ok, so, at this point there's enough time since the 4e announcement that some of you may care to make public your own guesses.  When 4e comes out, will D20:

1. Drop like a rock into oblivion; no one will keep making product for it?

or

2. Continue to thrive and be supported by both a big fan base and a lot of publishers?

RPGPundit

IMO, neither. Technically, yes, "D20" will disappear because they are getting rid of the trademark license. What follows here is all just speculation I'm pulling from my butt. I think that there may be a small amount of support for "3.x," but in time, especially a year or more after the release of 4e, this support will dwindle to be almost nothing. I think most people will switch to 4e, and those who don't will either stick with 3e and little support, or will switch to a D20 variant that is still supported.

But, in the end I suppose 3rd party publishers will go with what makes the money. So if a decent market still exists for 3.x, they will publish for it. We'll have to wait and see how 4e is received and how it all shakes out.

I think a lot of products currently being designed for 3E will be released on schedule, so it will look like 3E is still getting a lot of support for at least a year or so.  But from what I've been hearing/reading, a lot of d20 publishers already have it in their mind to convert their major supplements to 4E so they can be the first out of the gate.  We're currently publishing d20 Modern products, but plan to make the switch when Wizards does, unless 4E just tanks.  Not that I like to change, but business is business.  

Pete

3. Be supported by a couple of niche publishers for a year or two, and then drop into oblivion.

Guess I should not have tried to start up d20haven then, eh?

I am, apparently, the contrarian on this one. I think there will be a thriving, though small, market for d20 and/or some variation of it - in particular, with the core rules of D&D. Some smart person will take the core, clean it up (lose prestige classes, simplify/split some of the more...challenging...portions, etc), and use it as the basis for a set of products (adventures, relatively good source books, etc.) - kind of like GURPS approach to d20.

It why I started that site - to give 3.x a Dragonsfoot of it's very own.

Quote from: James J SkachGuess I should not have tried to start up d20haven then, eh?

I am, apparently, the contrarian on this one. I think there will be a thriving, though small, market for d20 and/or some variation of it - in particular, with the core rules of D&D. Some smart person will take the core, clean it up (lose prestige classes, simplify/split some of the more...challenging...portions, etc), and use it as the basis for a set of products (adventures, relatively good source books, etc.) - kind of like GURPS approach to d20.

It why I started that site - to give 3.x a Dragonsfoot of it's very own.

I mostly agree with James on this one.  3.X has too much written for it, about it, and too many folks who have bought in to disappear completely.  I think 3.X will lose a lot of folks, but the (decent-sized) nucleus that remains will still see some products out for it, and it'll definitely  have more support/following than your typical "old edition"/niche market game.  We'll see, though.

Quote from: Zachary The FirstI mostly agree with James on this one.  3.X has too much written for it, about it, and too many folks who have bought in to disappear completely.  I think 3.X will lose a lot of folks, but the (decent-sized) nucleus that remains will still see some products out for it, and it'll definitely  have more support/following than your typical "old edition"/niche market game.  We'll see, though.

Do you really think more people play 3.x than played 1/2E? My impression is that the overall RPG market is much smaller than it was six or seven years ago. I have a hard time seeing how the 3.x. die-hards are going to be any bigger a market, in real numbers, than the 1/2E die-hards.

Quote from: RPGPunditOk, so, at this point there's enough time since the 4e announcement that some of you may care to make public your own guesses.  When 4e comes out, will D20:

1. Drop like a rock into oblivion; no one will keep making product for it?

or

2. Continue to thrive and be supported by both a big fan base and a lot of publishers?

I can only say with some degree of certainty what I plan on doing: Continue to play games I like. Some of those games will be d20 games. Some will not. Whether or not 4e is out, the license is dead, etc., doesn't change, for me, how much fun I'll have with a game.

Seanchai

Quote from: HaffrungDo you really think more people play 3.x than played 1/2E? My impression is that the overall RPG market is much smaller than it was six or seven years ago. I have a hard time seeing how the 3.x. die-hards are going to be any bigger a market, in real numbers, than the 1/2E die-hards.

No, but I think the community will be more gathered, connected, sharing, and informed thanks to the internets.  Much less "lost tribe" syndrome this time around.

Quote from: RPGPundit2. Continue to thrive and be supported by both a big fan base and a lot of publishers?

This one, except for the publishers part, if I'm understanding the licensing correctly. If it's not legal to publish d20 products, there may be some companies that try to skate the line (like Mayfair Games did with AD&D), but for the most part printed materials will dry up. That's not a problem though. There's been countless adventures, supplements, and settings printed already. More than enough to keep every gaming group busy for the rest of their lives.

Every prior edition of D&D still has a loyal following, and 3.x is at least as popular as they were, if not more. I see no reason why it would die out any more than they have.

d20 system publishing under the OGL will drop like a stone, but experience a small renaissance after a few years of publishers focusing on 4e. PDF will never go away.

Quote from: HaffrungDo you really think more people play 3.x than played 1/2E? My impression is that the overall RPG market is much smaller than it was six or seven years ago. I have a hard time seeing how the 3.x. die-hards are going to be any bigger a market, in real numbers, than the 1/2E die-hards.

Actually the RPG market is much BIGGER than people realize - the p[otential market.

 A customer and a co-worker quoted the stat that supposedly 1 out 3 Americans either are playing or have tried World of Warcraft.  Thats just a D&D type environment on the web run as a multiple-user environment and dungeon.

 Imagine if we could get all those people to at least TRY a pen & paper , around-the-table RPG.

 The customer that stopped into today? She was looking at the World of Warcraft made by FFG. Gorgeous brunette in her mid 20s talking for a good 45 minutes about elves, guilds, warlocks, tossing spells, raiding dungeons.  Said to my co-worker afterwards : "This is just kind of thing that the people online don't believe happens. "  He suggested setting up a video camera.  That young woman should talk her boyfriend into playing REAL roleplaying games. She and him are already familiar and comfortable with the terminology.


- Ed C.

I think it's pretty much screwed.

WotC has really sold the idea of a new edition (3.0 -> 3.5 -> 4.0) as being the product of some kind of game design natural selection and evolution, and from my entirely unscientific observations I would say they've done their job pretty thoroughly. I think a lot of fans believe or truly want to believe that the game is improving. Many of the rest will change over either simply to keep up with the Joneses, or because they're afraid of being left behind or becoming irrelevant or something.

I think that a few of the more notable OGL lines will still be open for business. M&M and C&C both appear to have a core group of loyal fans, and I would say they're different enough mechanically or ideologically as the case may be that their relationship to d20 won't much factor into their continued success or failure. Conan stands a good chance of standing on its own, too.

As for straight up d20 D&D compatible books? No way. They'll be like Bay City Rollers LPs in 1983.

2. Big fan base, lots o' support.
 
Players won't be able to resist the upgrades to their favorite races and classes. First the players will adopt 4th edition en masse and then the GMs and publishers will chase after the 4th edition players.
 
Additionally, I predict that the publisher that corners the market on seemingly impossible adventures will have a smash hit on their hands. Why? Because all the players with their unique-snowflake PC's are going to need a common benchmark to pulverize. (Presently the Tomb of Horrors, the Terraresque, and the Worlds Largest Dungeon fulfill similar niches. Although beating them is more of a testament to a PLAYER's tenacity and ingenuity whereas the smash hit will be a microcosm of 4th edition and will reward strategic, tactical and social party synergy.)

What Zach says.