Chuck, it's not a monopoly. It's an oligopoly. Happy?

Quote from: flyingmiceThe difference in rates won't make that much of a difference in pdf prices. Some publishers will absorb the rate hike, some will mirror it in their pricing - a 10% hike on a $5 item is just $0.50 - and some will mix these two. It will probably hit low-priced pdfs the hardest. There will be several strategies to deal with this, but none of them will magically hike the prices up very much at all. It matters more to the publishers than to the consumers, some of whom have been living on very thin margins, which I think is a stupid strategy, but that's just me. Don't everyone have a fit and panic.

-clash

Agreed.

I have no crystal ball, but Id bet PDF prices will go up cause they tend to go up ANYWAY.

People raise prices. That's life.

I doubt much of any upcoming price raise will be the result of this one action.

I mostly decided to jump in here because it really bugs me to see people throwing around scary words like "monopoly" because scary words are cool to use when it has absolutely no bearing on the current situation.

Chuck

Quote from: beejazzChuck, it's not a monopoly. It's an oligopoly. Happy?

Nope.

Explain to me why competition is harder now, with three companies controlling 100% of the market, than it was when 1 company controlled that same market share.

Chuck

I've no problems with Drivethru since they dropped the DRM and went to watermarks, but I really don't see this merger as a good thing.

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckYou act like I was driving in fucking gold plated cadillacs before this move and am not ALWAYS one quarter away from sending out resumes.

I don't recall saying anything or even suggesting that you made a lot of money writting RPGs. I know the RPG publishing market well enough to know that there are not a lot of people making a living doing RPGs and almost zero people getting rich.

QuotePlease tell me how the next 18 months will be substantially different from the last 5 years.

18 moths is about one full year after OBS goes live.

QuoteWhen I joined RPGobjects, they had one product line with 6 products (Darwin's World) and I had written 3 books (Vigilance, Vigilance: Absolute POwer printed by MEG and Raw Recruits).

Now we're a top ten vendor.

Conditions have changed several times since then but we always manage to adapt and thrive.

Either we will continue to do that.

Or we wont.

Same as it ever was.

Chuck

I don't know what you are getting all huffy about, i just simly disagree about this being a good thing for small publishers.

Ok, one question. Do you really think that the small publishers will see as much traffic on OBS as they do now? I doubt it. Why? Because its all about money (not that I think OBS is wrong for wanting to make money), and the big guys make up about 80% of the sales. Somewhere down the line thats going to force OBS to give the better add spots and front pages space to the stuff that makes money. It happens a little now, more @ drivethru though, but I think it will only get worse when OBS goes into full swing. So basically some people are paying a higher rate and not likely to get anything in return.

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckAnd can your dictionary explain to me why a site was able to rise up and be serious competition at a time when one site controlled 100% of the market (RPGNow) but couldnt rise up now at a time when three sites control that same market?

  Absolutely.

  Firstly, because RPGNow didn't have anti-competitive pricing policies which actually slanted the market in their favour and made sure that publishers thought long and hard about dual listing.

  Secondly, DriveThru brought the major RPG publishers to the PDF table.  In fact, if they hadn't had them, its unlikely DriveThru would have existed at all.

  Thirdly, when DriveThru emerged, the market for PDFs was smaller than it is now.  It's easier to introduce yourself into a young market than it is to introduce yourself in a mature market, especially when none of the opposition spend any money on advertising and you spend loads.

Quote from: Mr. AnalyticalAbsolutely.

  Firstly, because RPGNow didn't have anti-competitive pricing policies which actually slanted the market in their favour and made sure that publishers thought long and hard about dual listing.

  Secondly, DriveThru brought the major RPG publishers to the PDF table.  In fact, if they hadn't had them, its unlikely DriveThru would have existed at all.

  Thirdly, when DriveThru emerged, the market for PDFs was smaller than it is now.  It's easier to introduce yourself into a young market than it is to introduce yourself in a mature market, especially when none of the opposition spend any money on advertising and you spend loads.

Wow. Some dictionary. It gives business advice too.

1. There are no anti-competitive pricing policies. Prices have not changed yet. And even if prices rise by 10% how the heck is that "anti-competitive pricing". You get bonus points for exchanging one scarrrrry word (monopoly) for another that had more syllables though!

2. So DTRPG competed because they had exclusive publishers? So you mean if a company wanted to come in and compete NOW with a dominant company providing the same service they need to bring something to the table that their competitor doesnt offer?

What a shock.

Yes a company wanting to compete with the new merged site would likely need exclusive publishers, lower prices, better service or something new no one has ever thought of.

This is called business.

I couldnt open up a hamburger stand and compete with McDonald's either. What a shock.

3. So the market is larger and that makes it HARDER to split it more ways? Huh? If a smaller market could support two dominant sites, I think a larger market can too.

Chuck

Quote from: McrowOk, one question. Do you really think that the small publishers will see as much traffic on OBS as they do now? I doubt it. Why? Because its all about money (not that I think OBS is wrong for wanting to make money), and the big guys make up about 80% of the sales. Somewhere down the line thats going to force OBS to give the better add spots and front pages space to the stuff that makes money. It happens a little now, more @ drivethru though, but I think it will only get worse when OBS goes into full swing. So basically some people are paying a higher rate and not likely to get anything in return.

Well it was the little guy getting screwed when RPGNow gave them their own site.

And now its the little guy getting screwed when they're going to be on THE BIGGEST site.

Look, for ALL publishers, the majority of your sales in this business come from direct marketing.

A small publisher could start out and become a top 10 publisher in the past and he can now.

That's all anyone can ask for.

If you wonder how I know a small publisher can do that, I've seen it happen multiple times once RPGNow started to get big.

And Im not huffy at all, except at people treating this like it's some awful development.

I dont consider being listed at the #1 PDF sales site, along with mirrors at ENWorld and RPGnet to be a bad development, regardless of the size of my business.

Chuck

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckLook, for ALL publishers, the majority of your sales in this business come from direct marketing.

See, the publishers that I talk to say that a lot of their sales on RPGnow come from people browsing the site and buying on impulse.  Maybe thats not true, but since the PDF market is made for the impulse buyer, I'm inclined to think that traffic on RPGnow drives a lot of sales for publishers.

people browse, see something they like and "click" buy it now.

Now if those same publishers become less visible and/or harder to find that is bound to cut into sales.

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuck1. There are no anti-competitive pricing policies. Prices have not changed yet. And even if prices rise by 10% how the heck is that "anti-competitive pricing". You get bonus points for exchanging one scarrrrry word (monopoly) for another that had more syllables though!

  At the moment you're being a condescending cunt.  I suggest you stop.

  It's anti-competitive pricing to give people a lower rate if they are exclusive to your site.  Because that means that if they ever want to move to a competitor, they have to either accept the rate hike and hope for the best OR jump ship entirely to the other site and hope that their customers will follow.  It's disinsentivising selling on multiple platforms and as a result is anti-competitive.

Quote2. So DTRPG competed because they had exclusive publishers? So you mean if a company wanted to come in and compete NOW with a dominant company providing the same service they need to bring something to the table that their competitor doesnt offer?

  That's not what I said at all.  You asked me to explain how DriveThru could enter the marketplace and how it would be tougher now to do the same thing.  The answer is that DriveThru had a USP, namely the major RPG publishers.  If they hadn't had those publishers they wouldn't have entered the market.  No new startup can pull a similar stunt that would not only allow him to compete with other sites but reach out to a whole new market at the same time.  The market has now matured and moved on... the conditions allowing something like DriveThru to happen no longer hold.

QuoteThis is called business.

  Absolutely.  They did exactly what was right for them and they were rational to do so.  However, OBS's interests are not the interests of the consumers, the small publishers OR the PDF market as a whole.

  They weren't wrong to do what they did but they do stand to negatively impact the market by putting pressure on small publishers and generally slowing the pace of progress by eliminating competition.

  Capitalism only works if there's competition.

Quote3. So the market is larger and that makes it HARDER to split it more ways? Huh? If a smaller market could support two dominant sites, I think a larger market can too.

  If a market is more mature it makes it harder to make a dent in it.  Compare launching an online bookshop now and compare it to launching it 5 years ago.  The market's more mature, it can't be grown by reaching out to new customers (because there aren't as many as there once were) and shopping habits have become crystalised.  Bigger market, but harder for a newcomer to enter.

  In theory yes, but it's not a level playing field and with DriveThru leveraging it's market position to make it harder for people to try out the competition, it's unlikely that a second competitive site will emerge.

Quote from: McrowSee, the publishers that I talk to say that a lot of their sales on RPGnow come from people browsing the site and buying on impulse.  Maybe thats not true, but since the PDF market is made for the impulse buyer, I'm inclined to think that traffic on RPGnow drives a lot of sales for publishers.

people browse, see something they like and "click" buy it now.

Now if those same publishers become less visible and/or harder to find that is bound to cut into sales.

Yes, about 50% of sales come from site traffic.

And 50% of sales come from direct marketing.

On the front page right now, I see Hinterwelt Publishing, Legion Publishing, Steam Power Publishing, Hart-Felt Productions, Mob United Media, Sane Studios...

Yeah, no small vendors at all.

Sigh.

It gives more exposure to small vendors than Amazon. Or any other retail store for that matter.

And again, when small publishers were GIVEN THEIR OWN SITE that was bad for them too, so we were told.

Even though that gave them MAXIMUM visibility.

What is the site supposed to do that it's not doing?

Chuck

Quote from: blakkieThat's why the royalties are expressed as a percentage.

That's all well and good for individual publishers.  But what about James and the others employed by RPGNow?  They've been collecting the same margins from many publishers for years now.  And yet, their cost of living has steadily increased, just like everyone else's.

Quote from: blakkie:confused: Yes, game developers, feast upon your margins. Not food.

You lost me there.

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckYes, about 50% of sales come from site traffic.

And 50% of sales come from direct marketing.

On the front page right now, I see Hinterwelt Publishing, Legion Publishing, Steam Power Publishing, Hart-Felt Productions, Mob United Media, Sane Studios...

Yeah, no small vendors at all.

Like I said, it is less of a problem currently on RPGnow. Drivethru OTOH has definitely leans toward larger publishers.

QuoteIt gives more exposure to small vendors than Amazon. Or any other retail store for that matter.

who here is arguing that besides you?

QuoteAnd again, when small publishers were GIVEN THEIR OWN SITE that was bad for them too, so we were told.

see above

QuoteEven though that gave them MAXIMUM visibility.

if you are refering to the edge here, I think you last your damn mind.
I'm sure you know that traffic is MUCH less on the edge site.

Quote from: Mr. AnalyticalIt's anti-competitive pricing to give people a lower rate if they are exclusive to your site.

YEah, because a 5% royalty rate increase for being non-exclusive would really break a company's back.  

QuoteBecause that means that if they ever want to move to a competitor, they have to either accept the rate hike and hope for the best OR jump ship entirely to the other site and hope that their customers will follow.  It's disinsentivising selling on multiple platforms and as a result is anti-competitive.

No, because everyone is also going to be selling on their own sites now (or at least many more will).

I predict there will be more than three RPG sites 5 years from now. Again, the market has gone from 1 site, to 5 and back to 3 in 5 years.

I dont see anything happening but business.

QuoteThat's not what I said at all.  You asked me to explain how DriveThru could enter the marketplace and how it would be tougher now to do the same thing.  The answer is that DriveThru had a USP, namely the major RPG publishers.  If they hadn't had those publishers they wouldn't have entered the market.  No new startup can pull a similar stunt that would not only allow him to compete with other sites but reach out to a whole new market at the same time.  The market has now matured and moved on... the conditions allowing something like DriveThru to happen no longer hold.

And you didnt.

It was VERY TOUGH for DTRPG to do what they did. It took a lot of planning, a lot of capital outlay and a lot of skill.

It would be just as tough now.

But it wouldnt be more tough.

QuoteAbsolutely.  They did exactly what was right for them and they were rational to do so.  However, OBS's interests are not the interests of the consumers, the small publishers OR the PDF market as a whole.

So James, the guy who founded RPGNow and basically created the PDF equivalent of Amazon, doesnt have the health of the PDF market in mind? Are you mental?

 

QuoteThey weren't wrong to do what they did but they do stand to negatively impact the market by putting pressure on small publishers and generally slowing the pace of progress by eliminating competition.

Small publishers will be helped by this move imo.

QuoteCapitalism only works if there's competition.

It seemed to work fine when RPGNow was the only site in town. And it seems it will work fine now with three sites.

Chuck

Quote from: Mcrowif you are refering to the edge here, I think you last your damn mind.
I'm sure you know that traffic is MUCH less on the edge site.

Right.

So if they're on the site with a lot of traffic they arent visible enough, and if they have their own site, that's no good either.

I guess all the platinum vendors should fall on their sword to help out the little guy.

Seriously, what could the site do that it doesnt do?

Chuck