Reading the threads on the future of rpgs got me thinking - not so much about the format of rpg's but about the dominant genres.

As it appeared to me we had....

Late 70's through to the mid 80's - Fantasy
Mid 80's to early 90's - science fiction (particularly near future/dystopian)
The 90's and early 00's - dominated by revisionist horror (thanks White Wolf)
early 00's - ?

Maybe I'm too close to the forest to see the wood for all the trees, but I can't see a major dominant genre at the moment.  If I was pushed I'd say it was fantasy given the successes of the LoTR's, World of Warcraft, Harry Potter etc.

Will we see a return to science fiction?  Will something new become the driving force?  Where SF gaming grew out of the fantasy mold, the White Wolf stuff seemed to break it (at least from a personal view point).  However nothing since the early vampire/werewolf days has had the same impact.

So my question to you all is whats next?
(The one I don't want answered is am I speaking a ton of crap - just act like I'm the greatest thing since sliced bread and we'll all get along famously:D)

If anybody knew beforehand, it wouldn´t be the next big thing.
Case settled.

Quote from: SettembriniIf anybody knew beforehand, it wouldn´t be the next big thing.

I dunno. . . Steve Jackson (US) has an uncanny knack for predictions where these kinds of things are concerned. His old "predictions" columns in Space Gamer rarely missed a "next big thing" (at least I'm pretty certain it was in Space Gamer).

There's a fair amount of Zombie stuff right now, whether in hindsight that will look like something big... only time will tell.

EDIT:

early 00's - Fantasy (3rd Edition D&D came out in 2000, and it's now the late 00's)

The next big thing? Whatever I put out.


(...here's hoping, anyway)

Quote from: StumpydaveReading the threads on the future of rpgs got me thinking - not so much about the format of rpg's but about the dominant genres.

As it appeared to me we had....

Late 70's through to the mid 80's - Fantasy
Mid 80's to early 90's - science fiction (particularly near future/dystopian)
The 90's and early 00's - dominated by revisionist horror (thanks White Wolf)
early 00's - ?

Maybe I'm too close to the forest to see the wood for all the trees, but I can't see a major dominant genre at the moment.

Eh?  In terms of market share and frequency, D&D has always been the dominant game -- always having over 50% of the market single-handedly.  It's most notable competition was Vampire from when it was released in 1990, which has generally held around 25%.  The big feature of the noughts was the resurgence of D&D3 / D20.  

I suppose the late 80s had some popular sci-fi -- notably FASA Star Trek (1982), WEG Star Wars (1987), Cyberpunk (1988), and Shadowrun (1989).  But the eighties also saw the rise of superhero games like Champions and Marvel; historical games like Pendragon and Ars Magica; modern-day games like James Bond 007, Twilight 2000; and many more.  The notable thing about the eighties was that role-playing diversified.

Another way to look at it:

70's wargames doing ok
80s RPGs, mainly D&D really big
90s CCG, mainly Magic really big
00s Minis, especially Clix, really big.

D&D has always been the dominant rpg, but it's has been overshadowed by other hobby games (even when excluding various sorts of computer games.)

Part of the $$$ of CCGs and Minis is their addictive properties - the spending per player is much higher than with rpgs.

Another big aspect of cards and minis is that most of the rules are embedded in the pieces so it's easy (in a sense, the ramifications get icky) to modify a game by adding new pieces and you can learn the rules one piece at a time.  Some people just can't grok reading hundreds of pages in preparation for playing a game.

Cards and minis are also more concrete in that you have cool things to look at and move around while you play instead of numbers on a piece of paper.

A potentially big thing is combining rpgs with minis or cards.  Take the simple rules of the latter but alter it from a skirmish game to an rpg by focusing on one character which can take mods and doing more than tactical combat.  Keep it simple enough for 8 year olds and people who can't hack higher match.

Getting it right isn't easy but it could do very well

Depends on what you mean by big. There are a LOT and I mean a lot of superhero games that have come out in the last 5 years (or so)

Of the top of my head:

RPGs:
Hero 5
Living Legends
Two editions of Mutants and Masterminds
Squadron UK (Golden Heroes remake)
BASH!
Truth & Justice
Hearts & Souls
Wild Talents
Marvel Universe RPG (sank like a stone and used "stones"-- oh the irony)


Indie may or may not be RPG's:
With Great Power
Capes


Mini games:
Heroclix
Attatix
Marvel Heroscape (boardgame/mini hybrid)