Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckOoo here's some sharp enemy action straight from the front lines right here. Take a page from the Red Book and keep them in your sights!



So what he says here is, if 4e is announced this year it says something about how WOTC perceives the health of the hobby.

He doesn't predict it's coming at all. He just says if it DOES, that means the market's not so good from WOTC's perspective and that the announcement will be at GenCon if it does come.

What he does predict seems to be 2008 at the earliest, which would be at the early edge of the 8-10 year cycle that has ALWAYS seperated editions of D&D.

So... it looks like this whole thread is, yet again, a cartload of paranoiac horseshit unless someone has a real quote to show differently.

Pramas didn't predict 4e this year.

Mearls didn't accuse anyone of enemy action.

Looks like I've discovered who the real idiots are after all.

Edit: Link for the quote

http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?t=258956&page=11

Pramas is like the Jehovah's Witnesses. Everytime his prediction of "end times" doesn't come true he pushes it back a year.

RPGPundit

Quote from: NicephorusChuck, you're trying to use logic against someone who has the delusion that he personally convinced GR to do True20 but was snubbed of any recognition.  The reality is more likely that GR was secretly scrambling due to the disappearance of their distributor so wasn't in product announcement mode.

It wasn't so much "convinced" as it was "cajoled and finally forced into", and it wasn't "me personally" so much as a large number of people who hated Blue Rose but loved the system, of whom I was just one spokesman.

RPGPundit

Here's what I said on the subject of 4e rumors:

   Two things happen when you announce a new edition of an RPG:

1. Fans stop buying, since they don't want to buy books that they can't use with the new edition.

2. Distributors and retailers stop buying, since they don't want to be stuck with dead stock.

The industry "professionals" who spread the rumors almost always had a new RPG in the pipeline that they were pegging a lot of their hopes on. Everyone seems to forget, but a lot of companies were betting their '06 strategies on 4.0 either announcing or releasing at GenCon.

And then later:

   It isn't gamers who are a problem. It's distributors. They would know that a new edition was coming and would make their orders with that in mind.

The announcement of a new edition serves a lot of needs. It lets us build excitement about the new game, but it also allows distributors to prepare for the changeover. No sane company wants to piss off its distributors and retailers. By the same token, it's in our best interest to inform people. We don't want new players buying stuff that they can't use in a few months. That just makes people angry.

I think there were a number of companies that were hoping for a 4e announcement. The smarter ones didn't bank on it. I doubt anyone bet everything on 4e. It was funny, though. A few people put a lot of effort into spreading rumors, and that caused other people to get caught up in the frenzy.

You can't have it both ways Chuck.  In one post you hold him up as having something to lose with a new edition, then in another post you quote him saying "What happens with 4E will not affect the health of Mutants & Masterminds or True20, for example."

All you're doing is grabbing random quotes and twisting them to your meaning of the moment, the exact same thing you're accusing Pundit and Jrients of.  

Your hissy fit is bad enough, you don't need to go making youself look worse.

Quote from: jrientsAlso, I never called anyone an idiot.

I knew it, you have me on IL!

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't have it both ways Chuck.  In one post you hold him up as having something to lose with a new edition, then in another post you quote him saying "What happens with 4E will not affect the health of Mutants & Masterminds or True20, for example."

All you're doing is grabbing random quotes and twisting them to your meaning of the moment, the exact same thing you're accusing Pundit and Jrients of.  

Your hissy fit is bad enough, you don't need to go making youself look worse.

No, you need to go actually read what I am saying.

I do make both of those statements, but they apply to different things.

Mutants and Masterminds and True 20, along with non-d20 stuff, are a way to help deal with a new edition.

Because core fantasy stuff will take a big hit. This is what we learned from 3.5

So both statements are true. Companies have a lot to lose, because core fantasy books that support D&D are still hugely important.

AND products like M&M and True 20 are there to help make sure companies have their own brand identity.

You are acting like only one of those statements can be true. I stand by both.

Now as for your last jab, I find it humorous in the extreme that people can start a thread calling people in the industry "idiots" who are "crying wolf" and the person who stands up to these lame ass bullies is the one throwing a hissy fit.

I guess we're all just supposed to lie down and accept a bunch of offensive inaccurate diatribes by pundit and his circle of backslappers huh?

I still think well planned marketing could help a company deal with a minor change like the 3.5 upgrade.  Reprint your books so they are new and shiny after the 3.5 release, if you think you have an issue with the new rules (why, I have no idea... see my earlier posts), edit them first and slap a big shiny '3.5 compliant' label on the cover. Hell, you may even get people buying new copies of books they already own...because consumers are sheep.

baa.


For purely setting books (like the second volume of the IK lineup), even a 4e wouldn't put a dent in the ability to sell your game, buying you time to get the rules updated for the volume one in that example.  Of course, if anything IK suffered a bit from trying too hard to be 'rules' for the setting.

Quote from: RPGPunditA number of people, some more famous some less, and some very famous designers with resentments towards Wizards, have already made fools of themselves with their prediction that 2006 was going to be the year of 4th Edition.

Well, 2006 has come and gone, and no sign of 4e on the horizon.  Does anyone want to volunteer to be roundly laughed at and mocked with claims about 2007? Chris Pramas is already a volunteer!

RPGPundit

My guess is early 2008, with preorders available for Xmas 2007.

Though it may get pushed back - the recent spate of releases from WOTC seems to be with a certain end-game in mind, and who's to say what that might be, specifically.  They are, however, certainly nearing the Critical Mass of Releases.  While I have enjoyed almost all of the major releases for 3.5, I'm having difficulty seeing, beyond Complete Scoundrel, and Zealot (?? is that was the Divine-based second splat is called?), how many more things they can release books about.  The diversity of available options is, quite frankly, amazing, and their quality is generally pretty good.  WOTC deserve applause for their 3.5 releases, as they almost universally kick the ever loving crap out of 3.0's, which were pretty good too.

Quote from: jrientsWhich can change the minds of some uninformed customers and end up redirecting money towards a more profitable avenue for the manager.  You're making my point for me, I think.

VERY VERY few.  What fan of something is going to be so totally unconnected from it as to have no idea whats going on with it, and then what idiot is going to go "Really?  Shit, well I'd better drop all these D&D books I was going to buy then, and pick up all these other ones!!!", and what, exactly, would be a "more profitable" avenue than buying the books he was going to?  Are you suggesting some store owners get kickbacks from game companies to push their shit?  What difference is it if dude buys D&D books, or buys some other books?  He's not going to magically have more money to spend, it works out pretty much the same either way.

QuoteCould they directly attack Wizards?  Probably not.  Would a well-placed rumor cost Wizards a few sales and maybe send people looking for other products?  Maybe.

And, pray tell, what difference is that going to make to the RPG industry beheamoth that is WOTC?  More worrisome is the store clerk convincing dude that "This small indy RPG is a dead game, with no support, and its a poor seller.  You don't want that - THIS, D&D, is a big seller with loads of support and the like.  Buy this, and its bazillions of supplements I want to move."  THATS a far more likely scenario.

Reminds me of something that happened in a game shop many years ago.

It was near christmas, and I was checking out some WW product (3ed was likely 5 years away, and I was out of D&D gaming).  A woman comes in asking about D&D - her son was interested as a Xmas present, and she wanted to know what it was, and what she had to buy.

Owner pulls her over, shows her the books, - rightly pointing out the three book purchase neccessary for him to begin to run the game (he was going to run a game for his friends, none of whom were gamers before), but then shifts to telling her she needs to buy a setting to run the game in (pointing out the plethora of settings available - she began to look worried), and points to the huge rack of prepublished adventures, saying unless he was going to create everything himself, he'd likely need a few of these.  She's very out of her element here, and my "sleaze-detector" is pinging greatly (I always hated the guy), and am awaiting the pitch to come.

"Also," he says, "theres the demon aspect, as well as violence."  WTF?  "You can see theres demons and violence in this game.  Its pretty bad.  It can be avoided, but its there nonetheless.  Theres some pretty mature themes in this game.  How old is your son?"  "14" she says with some concern in her voice.

"Its a pretty complex game too.  Theres a lot of purchases and rules and things that go into it.  This over here," he starts walking ehr to the WARHAMMER section, "is probably more what your son would be interested in, as its creative, as well as being a fun game without the mature themes and complexity D&D has.  He can play it, out of the box, pretty quickly and simply, with very little in the way of complex world creation and planning it takes to run D&D successfully."

I was fuming.  I WISH I had interjected and directed her to a far better gaming store, and pointed out the inaccuracy and bullshit in his line, but I was young, and was local Silver Pack rep for Rage CCG and trying to get a demo in his store.  I was pretty timid as a young man, but I wish like hell I had done or said something.  I think, in the end, she didn't buy anything and went home to check with her son, which is good, but man, if I came across that now, I'd tell him where to go, and set her straight ina  flash.  It still bugs me, thinking of it, what a slimeball he was, and shames me I did nothing about it.

QuoteI guess we're all just supposed to lie down and accept a bunch of offensive inaccurate diatribes by pundit and his circle of backslappers huh?

I want you to take a deep breath, and repeat after me:

I am not a hero.  I am not a saint.  I am not a martyr.  I am not a crusader.  This is only a message board, and the posts on it are just a few random geeks whose opinions by and large don't matter in the scheme of things.  

I do not need to "stand up for my fellow game designers everywhere".  Most of them don't even know who I am, and couldn't care less about what one or two crazies on a message board have to say.

I understand that an attack on one or several members of the class of "game designer", or even of "class of game designer who publicly makes statements about 4e" does not automatically constitute a statement about those entire classes of people, or against myself for belonging to said class.

Now take a deep breath, count to 10, and calm the fuck down.

Quote from: J ArcaneI want you to take a deep breath, and repeat after me:

I am not a hero.  I am not a saint.  I am not a martyr.  I am not a crusader.  This is only a message board, and the posts on it are just a few random geeks whose opinions by and large don't matter in the scheme of things.  

I do not need to "stand up for my fellow game designers everywhere".  Most of them don't even know who I am, and couldn't care less about what one or two crazies on a message board have to say.

I understand that an attack on one or several members of the class of "game designer", or even of "class of game designer who publicly makes statements about 4e" does not automatically constitute a statement about those entire classes of people, or against myself for belonging to said class.

Now take a deep breath, count to 10, and calm the fuck down.

Someone should give the same oath to Pundit in regards to RPG.net...

Quote from: J ArcaneNow take a deep breath, count to 10, and calm the fuck down.

How come you dont give these nice speeches to Pundit and the assholes that overrun this place talking about everything under the sun?

I mean seriously. Pundit starts a thread about people who are "idiots for predicting 4e" in 2006.

Someone else jumps in and says "yeah, this is enemy action against WOTC, Mike Mearls said so".

I go dig up some quotes and prove that, in fact, neither of those people said either of those things.

And *I* am the one who needs to calm down?

Chuck, scroll up a few posts. Mearls has repeated his exact position quite clearly in this very thread. Its not as clear cut as the pundit OR you put forth for him, but it IS what he says.

Quote from: RPGObjects_chuckHow come you dont give these nice speeches to Pundit and the assholes that overrun this place talking about everything under the sun?

I mean seriously. Pundit starts a thread about people who are "idiots for predicting 4e" in 2006.

Someone else jumps in and says "yeah, this is enemy action against WOTC, Mike Mearls said so".

I go dig up some quotes and prove that, in fact, neither of those people said either of those things.

And *I* am the one who needs to calm down?

Cause it IS just a website.  I've been disagreeing with Pundit since before he got banned at RPG.net (though I did defend him a time or two, and tried to reason with him a few times (*snerk* THAT did loads of good)), and have shaken my head at this cult of personality he's built up around himself here - but really, what honest to god HARM is he going to do with his comment?

His blog is pretty much the laughingstock of the industry, despite a few solid bits, and those who lick his arse will lick his arse no matter what.  Those who disagree will disagree.  The lines are pretty drawn, mate.  Getting worked up about it will do exactly jack and shit.  Save your sanity.  I know its hard, when someone is blanket attacking you and yours, but it IS just a website - one that doesn't really have much clout, and isn't going to change anyones opinions.

Take a few steps back, calm down, and take the high road.  Why walk in shit just because others choose to fling it?  Duck it, but throwing it back just stinks up YOUR hands, and the moment of glee when you slap someone in the face with a crap-ball isn't worth having the rest of the day stunk because you put your hands in shit.  Better to just take the high road, defend rationally and sanely, and not allow yourself to get dragged down.

Quote from: SpikeChuck, scroll up a few posts. Mearls has repeated his exact position quite clearly in this very thread. Its not as clear cut as the pundit OR you put forth for him, but it IS what he says.

I read what he said.

He says that industry professionals thought 4e was imminent and acted accordingly.

And that they also SAID so publically.

And?

How do these statements translate to "enemy action"?