Quote from: jhkim;1124301From what I can see, Mistwell isn't saying it will be world-ending. He's saying it will be much worse than the flu -- including the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Ignoring any news outlets, what I see out of health organizations like the CDC and WHO agrees with this.

As thedungeondelver said, the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic killed about 500,000 people worldwide over the course of a year. And covid-19 has the potential to be much worse than that, killing millions, which is why countries are taking such extreme measures to deal with it. There is plenty of scare-mongering, but all the health experts that I've seen say that this is much worse than H1N1. That doesn't mean it's the end of the world, but it is a very real and serious threat - which is why health organizations are recommending much more extreme measures to deal with it than was done for H1N1.

Thats reasonable. Yeah I can see that happening.

Quote from: Mistwell;1124276I know Conservatives tend to be conservative (small c). But this inability to adapt to change is going to be deadly. Snap out of it.  This is the hospital tent city popping up outside of Italian hospitals unable to handle the influx of patients. They're having trouble disposing of the bodies and doctors are having trouble with the triage of patients. This isn't lesser than H1N1 it's way worse. Figure it out already, cause shit got real without you noticing!

You obviously did not read the article you linked too https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/coronavirus-bodies-italy-quarantine/.  The reasons some bodies were not getting immediately removed was not because of vast  numbers but was because of screw ups and people complicating things because they refused to go to hospital.

Quote"Unfortunately, we have a security protocol we must follow," Canepa said.

The man, who has not been publicly identified, tested positive for coronavirus before he died, but refused to be taken to the hospital, Canepa told CNN. After he passed away, quarantine measures prevented anyone from entering the house and collecting his body.

Leftest (small l or large  L like you ) always  weaponize crises for propaganda.

Quote from: thedungeondelver;1124272Remember when the world's economies collapsed and the media ran around screaming "EVERYBODY PANIC!" during the H1N1 outbreak on Obama's watch?

Yeah, neither do I.

For the record, about 500,000 deaths worldwide were attributed to it, 12000 in the US alone, and 60 million people (including yours truly) were infected.  

I'm not suggesting Corona-19 isn't dangerous, I'm suggesting there's an agenda at work here to make something that is provably less dangerous than H1N1 into a global disaster, and a disaster especially for the US.

Erm .. according to WHO estimates H1N1 killed 20,000 worldwide, with 3,500 dead in the US. Where are you getting your numbers from? This virus looks nastier if you don't control it (so your respirators aren't all in demand at the same time). South Korea got their act together immediately, so the vulnerable are not as exposed to the virus. Most people will probably get it eventually, but only at a slow rate, so there will be enough emergency beds for everyone (ish). Italy didn't put controls in early enough and now they are in triage mode - with the most vulnerable not given the care they need, because the system is overloaded.
Most people show only mild symptoms, but the vulnerable get very ill (pneumonia usually) and this kills people with underlying issues.

On a sad note, looks like Africa has been affected too. Bugger, I was hoping some sort of "doesn't like heat" feature of the virus would give us some safe places.

DL;TR
Don't panic, but this will be bad for a portion of the population if you don't take action to slow the spread of the virus.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1124292Or come from a different logical perspective. Can you believe that not everybody in the world is literally the same as you and are just pretending they're not because they're stupid?
I mean other sources charge Italy with massively mishandling the disease, and not managing its healthcare or social services well. Twitter or "SOURCE ON THE GROUND" are not renown sources.

Like if this truly is some world-ending epidemic Il apologize to you and sing your praises.

But if its not will you eat crow and admit to being paranoid?

For some reason, certain people get really pissed off when you don't freak out about the current manufactured crisis. It never crosses their mind that some of us really just don't give a fuck and are capable of dealing with whatever problems arise. I will say, however, that if this is the apocalypse, it's the lamest apocalypse ever. I was hoping for a nuke or meteor strike, not some annoying slow-roll of things getting shutdown and people quarantining themselves off, everyone eventually dying of pure boredom. Pretty hard to start a biker gang in that environment.

There's a difference between a lot of people dying, and the end of the world.

Case fatality rate in Italy keeps rising, and hospitals are using churches to store the corpses. Cases are rising dramatically in Spain and France, with numbers doubling every 3 days. Satellite images showing mass burials in Iran. Not proven yet, but taking non-steroidal anti-inflammatories to reduce fevers, like aspirin, ibuprofen, or cortisone, seems to increase the chance of dying, though one company who makes it is denying it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/satellite-images-could-show-mass-coronavirus-burial-pits-in-iran/12053030
https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2020/03/13/churches-chaplains-nuns-have-unexpected-role-covid-19-crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuWo5lmWuZI
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-reckittbenckiser-product/no-evidence-ibuprofen-bad-for-covid-19-patients-nurofen-maker-idUSKBN21327P

Quote from: Gagarth;1124316You obviously did not read the article you linked too https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/coronavirus-bodies-italy-quarantine/.  The reasons some bodies were not getting immediately removed was not because of vast  numbers but was because of screw ups and people complicating things because they refused to go to hospital.

For perspective, here's the current deaths per day from Italy from covid-19:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4211[/ATTACH]
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

So they're at 200 to 300 deaths per day at present. Now, bear in mind that Italy has around 1700 deaths per day under average circumstances. I get that from death rate of 10.6 per 1000 and a population of 60 million. ( Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/death-rate )

So at this point, covid-19 deaths are about 15% of average daily deaths. The system can handle some variation, I'm sure - but pure statistical variation would be just +-3%, so it may be straining things. Also, there are a lot of people in ICU and there are complications of handling both patients and bodies because of quarantine. So while I buy that there have been screw ups, they seem like understandable screw ups.

There's definitely potential for even higher death rate, though, given the trend. Hopefully the extreme isolation measures they're taking will slow that growth rate.

By contrast, South Korea has been more successful in containing the spread and keeping people alive. They have only had 75 deaths, with a daily death rate at under 10. I was there during the initial spread, and people took it very seriously. My lesson from that is that the measures can work, but we should be implementing them early and sticking to them.

Quote from: jhkim;1124364So at this point, covid-19 deaths are about 15% of average daily deaths. The system can handle some variation, I'm sure - but pure statistical variation would be just +-3%, so it may be straining things. Also, there are a lot of people in ICU and there are complications of handling both patients and bodies because of quarantine. So while I buy that there have been screw ups, they seem like understandable screw ups.

You're assuming the cases are evenly distributed across Italy, and they're not. I don't know the current numbers, but roughly 2/3rds of the initial cases were in Lombardy.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1124292Like if this truly is some world-ending epidemic ...

I said it is worse than the Flu and H1N1. I never said or implied it was the end of the world. I think you were one of three people who took my comment that it's worse than the Flu and H1N1 and strawmanned it to claim I was saying it was the end of the world.

Quote from: Pat;1124366You're assuming the cases are evenly distributed across Italy, and they're not. I don't know the current numbers, but roughly 2/3rds of the initial cases were in Lombardy.

Right now, approximately half the total cases (14649/27980), and 2/3 (1420/2158) of the deaths, are in Lombardy.
The photos of churches used to held the dead and the news of cremation chambers being overloaded come from the most heavily hit areas of Lombardy. The city of Bergamo is one of those.

Quote from: Pat;1124366You're assuming the cases are evenly distributed across Italy, and they're not. I don't know the current numbers, but roughly 2/3rds of the initial cases were in Lombardy.

Good point. It is for certain greater than the standard capacity of local resources in the hardest-hit areas, and will need national resources -- that hopefully are coming, but will take some time to set up.

Quote from: Brad;1124342It never crosses their mind that some of us really just don't give a fuck and are capable of dealing with whatever problems arise. I will say, however, that if this is the apocalypse, it's the lamest apocalypse ever.

So if you have a heart attack or get pneumonia in the next year, and the hospitals can't deal because they're in crisis mode coping with COVID patients, you'll just deal with it?

It sounds like you're a lone wolf, but most of us have loved ones who we care about.

Quote from: Haffrung;1124385So if you have a heart attack or get pneumonia in the next year, and the hospitals can't deal because they're in crisis mode coping with COVID patients, you'll just deal with it?

It sounds like you're a lone wolf, but most of us have loved ones who we care about.

What should I do..? Freak out and worry about stuff that hasn't happened? "This too shall pass".

There are two different things going on here, and they can both be true independently of each other:

1. The virus is some level of threat not yet fully understood, such that it is possible measure are overblown or inadequate. Also entirely possible there isn't a lot we can do about certain aspects of it except cope.

2. There are a lot of idiots in the world that will do all kinds of stupid stuff, that even common sense should tell them not to.  There are also a subset of them, many of them employed in the media, that would sell their grandmother to a Wuhan brothel to get Trump.  Anyone that can't see that is a fool.  They were this way before the virus was here, and they'll be that way when it is gone.  That means that for the average person in the public, getting useful information is more difficult than it should be.  This will contribute to the chaos of the moment.

Quote from: Brad;1124387What should I do..? Freak out and worry about stuff that hasn't happened? "This too shall pass".

Nobody is asking you to not freak out. Maybe just try a little harder to be less of a dick to those dealing with it differently than you, taking it more seriously than you, taking more steps than you? You know, be a little more human and a little less Internet Badass for shits and giggles?

Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1124392There are two different things going on here, and they can both be true independently of each other:

1. The virus is some level of threat not yet fully understood, such that it is possible measure are overblown or inadequate. Also entirely possible there isn't a lot we can do about certain aspects of it except cope.

2. There are a lot of idiots in the world that will do all kinds of stupid stuff, that even common sense should tell them not to.  There are also a subset of them, many of them employed in the media, that would sell their grandmother to a Wuhan brothel to get Trump.  Anyone that can't see that is a fool.  They were this way before the virus was here, and they'll be that way when it is gone.  That means that for the average person in the public, getting useful information is more difficult than it should be.  This will contribute to the chaos of the moment.

Common Sense.   There is no such thing for it was common, everyone would have it  Call it Uncommon Sense instead

Anyways, as far as COVID 19 goes, no one where I work is freaking out about it but we are taking it seriously.   All freaking out gets you is high blood pressure and empty store shelves.....first it was the toilet paper, now its ammo!   Good thing my wife always stocks up on both because when the shit hits the fan, your going to need them both