Quote from: Rhedyn;1125618Problem with stats. If 2/3rds of those deaths could have been prevented with the iron lung, then the death rates come closer together.

It looks now like ventilators only postpone C-19 death, rarely prevent it and enable recovery - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1uke7bBEUeXNW1J110ds0W_pLYTReAD1bQDUW8nOAF6oO8fbvKku_4_X0

There is an interesting article in "The Guardian". Some experts from various fields answer the question "How the World Will Change?" Here is the part about retail:

When the world comes out of this, more and more people will be converted to the new economy, how everything can be bought online, and how we won't need the high street. If you are in retail today, you are done for.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-business-finance-work-property

Quote from: Lynn;1125626When some people began describing a loss of taste and smell, it made me think we already had a variation.

What also concerns me is the growing evidence that the Commies are lying about the number dead. We still do not know for certain that you can't get it again or even when someone is likely to be contagious. With all of that in mind, I think with all then numbers we have so far, we simply don't have enough information to make really accurate predictions.

Have to agree here. Believe the Chinese are lying. Don't believe they have less than 4,000 deaths with three months of additional exposure when we have over 6,000 here in the U.S. Also saw some leaked videos last week of riots erupting in Chinese subway stations where communist goons with masks and disinfecant were unsuccessfully attacking crowds in subway stations trying to force them to disperse and hosing them down with irritating disinfectants, however this was seven months out of date and were really about riots occurring in Hong Kong. Counts I am receiving though, of fatalities, are including revised estimates of infected up to 40x and more than the official fatality and infection rates being supplied by the (lying) communist  government in Beijing.

Documents from the Wuhan Health Commission - 95% of new cases being concealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoMxG165_Rg

Shandong Province Official Reports under reported cases - 52x more positive cases being reported
Some cities and towns not testing patients
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwbsw8BWmhQ

Quote from: Reckall;1125615Would you like to come up to Milan, Lombardy, where I live, and see, sir? Unprotected, of course - because after all this is a scam. I will then offer you a nice tour: from the Army trucks bringing hundreds of corpses every night to the crematory, to the filled wards where 50 people die every day (and their beds are quickly prepared for the next 50 infected).

Not at the moment, Thank You. I never knew you were living in Milan. Are there any good local gaming stores there?

Quote from: GameDaddy;1125684Not at the moment, Thank You. I never knew you were living in Milan. Are there any good local gaming stores there?

There were. If and how much will survive the pandemic, I can't tell.

Quote from: Pat;1125625Calling the 1918 flu the American flu isn't particularly accurate, either. There are multiple theories with evidence (French flu? Chinese flu?), but none are conclusive:
https://academic.oup.com/emph/article/2019/1/18/5298310

Well, if you're going to name a bug after the first major outbreak, then "American Flu" is arguably appropriate for the so-called Spanish flu. At least as appropriate as calling covid the "Chinese Virus." And certainly more appropriate than it ever was to call it "Spanish." The only reason that ever happened was because the Americans (and other WWI combatants) suppressed reporting and downplayed the scope of the epidemic until the cat was obviously out of the bag. Much as China is accused of today. Stones, glass houses, etc.I

Drawing back to rpg industry I doubt the blame game will be fully resolved, it is too politically charged. And I doubt the fallout will be as simple as "can't outsource printing to China anymore." I suspect the fallout will be much more complicated, with globalization finding some major setbacks, while growing emphasis on digital and virtual production make globalization of production even more attractive. Hard to predict how that balances out for publishers.

Quote from: Zirunel;1125725Well, if you're going to name a bug after the first major outbreak, then "American Flu" is arguably appropriate for the so-called Spanish flu.

Did you read the recent peer-reviewed paper in the link you quoted?

Because there were major outbreaks at a British army encampment in France in 1916 and 1917, followed quickly by some cases in southern England, all of which have been which have tentatively assigned to the pandemic. The same is true with a whole series of outbreaks in northern China in 1917 and 1918. Even in America, there is evidence of the disease spreading in New York City in early 1918, well before the the Kansas outbreak. And even the Kansas outbreak came in two phases, with the first documented outbreak among the rural population. The outbreak at the US Army Camp that received all the attention was months later, and hundreds of miles away. It's just an accident of circumstance that it's been pointed to as the origin point. Not only that, but the Kansas outbreaks had different symptoms and morbidity patterns than the pandemic virus -- they might not have been the same disease.

So naming the pandemic after the Americans, British, French, or Chinese would only be slightly less silly than "Spanish", because ultimately nobody knows where it came from.

Another thought: If this pushes companies to digital distribution more, one of the things I'd hope to see is e-ink friendly versions of RPG books start to be a thing. A substantial reason I buy paper books still is that PDFs on a backlit traditional screen are much harder to read comfortably, and PDFs generally render poorly in e-ink. I have no idea if this is the opportunity to make that happen, but it could go along with a trimming of production costs, partly since heavy background graphics and templating make e-ink rendering worse. Pretty art is nice and all, but ultimately it's about the  mechanics and rules, and I'd much rather read and play than look at art.

I have heard people speculate it might affect the ability for print RPG books to be a thing in the near future (but I don't really know one way or another). Alliance shutting down (even if it is temporary) is a big deal. So there is uncertainty. I would imagine Drivethru RPG will always be an option for PDFs, but I believe their print books are handled through Lightning Source (I could be wrong as I don't do print books through them). If so, however LS is impacted, Drivetrhru would be too I imagine. It is definitely making me think about options and alternatives for the things I have going on. Hopefully the industry manages to survive okay. Like others have stated, the hobby will be okay. The hobby may even benefit from an increased do-it-yourself and social media sharing of resources. I imagine lots of gamers are keeping occupied with online sessions. And I am sure people hunkering down together are playing more games.

I think if the entire commercial side died, the hobby would be fine.

And that's a black swan scenario. Even in the worst case worth considering, businesses with little overhead and physical presence will continue. That includes print on demand and digital providers. People can play with the same set of books for decades until they fall apart, and huge back catalogs of products that have already been scanned and in many cases even reprinted will remain available, so there's no end of old material. And no end of new material because this is fundamentally a creative and fan-driven hobby; every campaign you create, every adventure you GM, and every monster or character you design is something you can write up and put on the web.

Quote from: S'mon;1125628It looks now like ventilators only postpone C-19 death, rarely prevent it and enable recovery - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1uke7bBEUeXNW1J110ds0W_pLYTReAD1bQDUW8nOAF6oO8fbvKku_4_X0

The back of the envelope evidence I have been seeing is that the vents are stopping about one death in three. An NNT of 3 isn't bad for a medical intervention. A lot of the issue seems to be the hypoxia requires a hospital and many hospital systems run at 100% capacity. Places with reserve capacity (Germany) are posting rather reassuring numbers. We also see this in data where everyone gets treatment (like Iceland and the Diamond Princess) where we also have something like broad levels of testing.

It's a shock to badly designed healthcare systems as much as anything else, so far as I can tell, who discounted the risk of a surge in demand.

Quote from: Lynn;1125624Unfortunately, 'genius syndrome' persists - that is, people thinking because they are creators in a vertical market that they can easily know and master the business framework around it. I deal with that in the tech market and sadly saw some wonderful tech products crash and burn because the creator thought he understood business better.

Speaking of tech...my current program is CS. Part of the program is a commercialization aspect. That is in the actual description of the program so we're expected to take some business classes. Who would have suspected a bunch of CS PhD students thought that 1) finance and business is easy, and 2) struggle in finance and business classes. I've seriously never met a group of more educated idiots in my life.

Quote from: Brad;1125526Since the SBA loans will pretty much keep a business afloat for a couple months...

They are a broken joke.

You know how many people have gotten them so far? Zero.

You know how many banks got their shit together enough to even attempt to accept loan applications by the due date? One. And it's unclear if that one is just chucking the filings.

The SBA has essentially shut down. Maybe eventually they will be able to process loans, but right now it's just one giant shit show that many expect won't deliver a dime for a month or more.

Quote from: Mistwell;1125775They are a broken joke.

You know how many people have gotten them so far? Zero.

You know how many banks got their shit together enough to even attempt to accept loan applications by the due date? One. And it's unclear if that one is just chucking the filings.

The SBA has essentially shut down. Maybe eventually they will be able to process loans, but right now it's just one giant shit show that many expect won't deliver a dime for a month or more.

Why are you so mad?

The program LITERALLY was ready to go yesterday, which means no one will get any money until probably the end of the week. I think you might actually be mentally ill if you think a bank loan is some sort of instantaneous thing rather than a process that takes a few days.

Quote from: Brad;1125774Speaking of tech...my current program is CS. Part of the program is a commercialization aspect. That is in the actual description of the program so we're expected to take some business classes. Who would have suspected a bunch of CS PhD students thought that 1) finance and business is easy, and 2) struggle in finance and business classes. I've seriously never met a group of more educated idiots in my life.

It is surprising they'd offer those courses but it is a positive.