First off, I've really begun to think of RPGs as a fad of the 80s.  The current market is primarily a nostalgia market.

That got me thinking about the heyday of RPGs.  It seems they had the most exposure, popularity, and market success in the mid 80s.  If I were to firmly define the dates, I'd say that RPGs as a BIG thing began in 1981 (the launch of the mass market Moldvay box D&D sets), hit it's peak sometime around 1986 or 1987 (when it seemed like a slew of major products hit shelves), and fizzled around 1991 (around about Shadowrun 2, which was one of the last big RPGs).

What I realized was a bit interesting about this is how well it maps to the dead years after the great videogame crash and before the rise in popularity of Nintendo.  More or less, the years between 1983 and 1987 were devoid of new videogames.  Retailers turned their back on electronic games and refused to stock them.  

It's interesting that during that dead time when videogames were prevented by retailers from assuming their normal place of dominance in entertainment, that RPGs were on their big upswing of popularity.  As soon as videogames were once again in stores, the popularity or RPGs seems to have declined.  RPGs also entered their death throes as soon as actual competition was restored to the videogame market (1991 coincides neatly with the rise in popularity of the Genesis).  There were also the anti-RPG crusaders to factor in.  They had done their part in the late 80s to demonize RPGs and get them removed from major store shelves, and they were more successful than not.

Of course, this is completely unscientific.  I'm sure someone will say that all this is blatantly untrue.  Oh well.

Thoughts?

Consoles weren't the only source of videogaming in the 80's.  As I recall PCs like the C64 and arcades still did a lot of business.  I'm not saying you're wrong, just that there wasn't an empty void between the 2600 and the NES.

Quote from: jrientsAs I recall PCs like the C64 and arcades still did a lot of business.

I remember Speccy.

Another factor to take into consideration was the rise of the little known (before 1992, anyway) game called "Magic: The Gathering."  I remember reading an article by someone who claimed that the rise of MtG was dependent primarily on the Baseball strike in 1993 () that meant there were tons more kids looking for a "card fix" that didn't exist because no one was playing and that droves of them were driven to MtG, which spurred its success and helped to usher in the demise of the table-top RPG.

Yet another reason for me to hate and despise sports of all kinds, but especially baseball. :mad:

Quote from: VellorianYet another reason for me to hate and despise sports of all kinds, but especially baseball. :mad:

Ken?

It hardly fizzled around 1991, after all 1st Edition Vampire, love it or hate it, it sold well, and made White Wolf the company it is today. Besides Shadowrun 2nd Ed was 1992. You still had great RPG's coming out in the later nineties like Feng Shui '96. Things were a little dull in the late nineties but then 3rd Ed D&D came a long in 2000 and gave the industry a bit of a boost.

Quote from: GabrielFirst off, I've really begun to think of RPGs as a fad of the 80s.  The current market is primarily a nostalgia market.

That got me thinking about the heyday of RPGs.  It seems they had the most exposure, popularity, and market success in the mid 80s.  If I were to firmly define the dates, I'd say that RPGs as a BIG thing began in 1981 (the launch of the mass market Moldvay box D&D sets), hit it's peak sometime around 1986 or 1987 (when it seemed like a slew of major products hit shelves), and fizzled around 1991 (around about Shadowrun 2, which was one of the last big RPGs).

What I realized was a bit interesting about this is how well it maps to the dead years after the great videogame crash and before the rise in popularity of Nintendo.  More or less, the years between 1983 and 1987 were devoid of new videogames.  Retailers turned their back on electronic games and refused to stock them.

I think RPGs peaked more quickly.  In The Fantasy Role-playing Gamer's Bible, Sean Patrick Fannon has a long history of RPGs.  He writes: "Near the middle of the 1980s, the RPG industry hit a serious slump.  The initial wave of excitement and fascination was well over, and many people just moved on tothe next fad.  What was left were the true hobbyists, and they were becoming increasingly more selective in what they were willing to spend money on.  Many publishers just went away, while others diversified into other areas or just sort of hung on, occaisionally reprinting something that a few people wanted, while their owners maintained "real lives" outside of game publishing.  Still other companies sold their games outright to rival publishers or got out of publishing and licensed their lines to other manufacturers."

D&D was a real fad from 1977 to 1983 or so.  By the time the D&D cartoon aired from 1983-1986, D&D was on the decline.  The number of new RPGs being released doesn't really measure the health of the industry.

Also, calling Shadowrun 2 the big RPG of 1991 is pretty odd, considering that Vampire: The Masquerade was released then.  I think RPGs peaked around 1983 or so.  There was then a slow decline, then a minor revival starting in 1991 with the new fad of Vampire.

Yes but I don't think the industry has had a major influx of new blood since WW explicitly went out and courted the goths.  

D&D 3 was self-consciously and explicitly targetted at gamers who had been harping back to the largely fictitious golden age of RPG and adventure design.  The fact that this trend occured right around the time that the first generation of gamers hit their mid- to late- 30's is not accidental, nor are the plummetting sales figures of the last 2 years.

The hobby is still healthy with loads of people gaming and loads of people in different countries thinking and talking about games but the RPG industry is as of this moment fucked unless it can pull some other new trick like CCGs or the OGL out of its collective arses.

Quote from: jhkimAlso, calling Shadowrun 2 the big RPG of 1991 is pretty odd, considering that Vampire: The Masquerade was released then.  I think RPGs peaked around 1983 or so.  There was then a slow decline, then a minor revival starting in 1991 with the new fad of Vampire.

It was an illusory revival. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Gaming had evened-out by the mid eighties, where the fad was done, but there was a solid fan base that could keep growing and doing well for a prolonged period of time.
But two things happened: first, TSR fell into the hands of Lorraine Williams, who royally fucked up the direction and management of the largest and most important game company (which produced the biggest and most important game), leaving said company intellectually (and eventually monetarily) bankrupt.  The release of AD&D 2e was the first massive mistake, as it alienated a large number of average gamers.

Second, the so-called "revival" represented by Vampire and its spawning of the story-based gaming movement. The vacuum created by TSR's lack of leadership created a dominant ideological position for story-based gaming by default, which led to the very nature of RPGs themselves changing radically. Most people who were already gamers NEVER bought into that change. So Vampire and Story-based gaming ended up driving away the old, dependable gamers in droves, and replaced them with goth-fad gamers, the vast majority of which didn't stick around for long.  

If it hadn't been for D20 and D&D 3.0, the industry would already be dead.

Fortunately, D&D went back into the hands of sane people, and D&D 3.0 managed to repair SOME (note: by far not all) of the damage that the combination of Williams+Vampire generated on the hobby.  Many older gamers came back, and a few new ones have joined in. The problem we face today is really a question of "not enough new ones"; and not enough being done to bring in new gamers.

And that's where we're at.

RPGPundit

Quote from: Mr. AnalyticalYes but I don't think the industry has had a major influx of new blood since WW explicitly went out and courted the goths.  

D&D 3 was self-consciously and explicitly targetted at gamers who had been harping back to the largely fictitious golden age of RPG and adventure design.  The fact that this trend occured right around the time that the first generation of gamers hit their mid- to late- 30's is not accidental, nor are the plummetting sales figures of the last 2 years.

The hobby is still healthy with loads of people gaming and loads of people in different countries thinking and talking about games but the RPG industry is as of this moment fucked unless it can pull some other new trick like CCGs or the OGL out of its collective arses.

I think that the industry will hold on, even as it slowly slides into utter obscurity.  (Just look at Palladium.)

That is, unless Wizards of the Coast pulls a rabbit out of its hat and makes D&D into something that is briefly a fad with children.  That is not entirely out of the question, but even if that happens it may be far different from what we currently consider to be an RPG.

Quote from: BagpussIt hardly fizzled around 1991, after all 1st Edition Vampire, love it or hate it, it sold well, and made White Wolf the company it is today. Besides Shadowrun 2nd Ed was 1992. You still had great RPG's coming out in the later nineties like Feng Shui '96. Things were a little dull in the late nineties but then 3rd Ed D&D came a long in 2000 and gave the industry a bit of a boost.

I view that as an aberration of the market.  By that point, RPG business had been forced out of mainstream stores and into the ghetto of the LGS.  I'd have to see the relative sales numbers, but I doubt that the success of Vampire matched the success of RPGs in prior years.  And, of course, there's nothing wrong with being a counter-cyclical company.

There's also the matter of that recent poll.  Now, this isn't really scientific, but it's interesting.  If we look at the ages that most gamers entered the hobby, we find that over 60% entered it between the ages of 7 and 16.  Next, if we look at the ages of most gamers in the hobby, we find that over 60% are aged 31 - 49.

Now, we can make an assumption here that could be wrong, but the figures do show a sort of inclination toward.  We can assume that the 60% who entered the hobby at the ages indicated and the 60% who are still playing are the same general block of people.  This is a pretty big and unconfirmed suspiction, but if we do this we come up with the date range for most people getting into the hobby as being 1973-1982.  Obviously the numbers could use some work,but it matches the idea in jhkim's post.

WotC's tried that D&D minis game, aiming dead on at the Clix market.  The secondary market for that seems to hop pretty well.

If Brand Management were to go buck wild and allow a D&D MtG expansion, that would certainly shake up the demand for D&D.  I'm no market analyst, though, so I couldn't tell you if it would be a positive thing or a stake through D&D's heart.

Can anyone find any sales figures on the Basic Set?  I'm digging, but not finding.