TheRPGSite

I think this should be addressed:

I DO NOT think the "RPG Industry" relies on D&D. I think if D&D 4 tanks...then RPG's wil be fine and another game (or group of games...evening out the marketplace a bit) will fill the RPG void.

D&D is the most poular game by far...but if the new edition tanks and new 3rd edition material isn't readily available...people will play other things. People looking for D&D will probably play "spiritual successors" like Castles and Crusades...or maybe even FtA or dare I say Palladium FRP. Perhaps they'll move on to try some new genre (or new players will come in on a genre) different than fantasy.

D&D is not "the Industry". It is only the most successful RPG out right now.

But just as White-Wolf filled the void in the late 90's someone else will fill the void if D&D4 tanks.

I think saying D&D is the industry -- or the lion's share of the industry -- is saying something different than the industry would survive it's demise. If you are talking about the "state of the industry", and you are not including D&D in that analysis, you aren't fairly reflecting the RPG industry.

It's definitely not the hobby.

Quote from: KrakaJakD&D is not "the Industry".

If posting that in a thread makes you sleep better at night...

Me, I'm a realist.

Disagree. I remember the days when a half dozen kids in every junior high class played D&D. It has massive market penetration and name recognition for people my age. I know long-time D&D players who aren't even aware of the existence of Palladium, or Castles and Crusades, or WFRP.

It isn't just a matter of keeping today's players either. RPGs have a steep attrition rate once people reach kids and mortgage age. If the industry can't attract new gamers in large numbers, it's demographic fate is to age and shrink. And to reach new gamers in large numbers, you need mass-market presence and name branding. I just don't see another game coming along to take the place of D&D on the shelves of all those Barnes & Noble and in the imaginations of hundreds of thousands of gamers. You're just not going to see 13-year-olds mooching $30 off their parents to buy the Hawkmoon RPG or Ars Magica.

Quote from: KrakaJakI think this should be addressed:

I DO NOT think the "RPG Industry" relies on D&D. I think if D&D 4 tanks...then RPG's wil be fine and another game (or group of games...evening out the marketplace a bit) will fill the RPG void.

D&D is the most poular game by far...but if the new edition tanks and new 3rd edition material isn't readily available...people will play other things. People looking for D&D will probably play "spiritual successors" like Castles and Crusades...or maybe even FtA or dare I say Palladium FRP. Perhaps they'll move on to try some new genre (or new players will come in on a genre) different than fantasy.

D&D is not "the Industry". It is only the most successful RPG out right now.

But just as White-Wolf filled the void in the late 90's someone else will fill the void if D&D4 tanks.

...but seriously, you've been posting a lot of stuff that is trying to justify your D&D "hate".  I mean, why do you care so much?  If you don't like D&D, fine, don't play it and don't talk about it.  No one is going to justify your hate exept other haters.  The rest of the RPG world is just fine facing the truth.

ne'ermind.
pointless post.

Quote from: grubman...but seriously, you've been posting a lot of stuff that is trying to justify your D&D "hate".  I mean, why do you care so much?  If you don't like D&D, fine, don't play it and don't talk about it.  No one is going to justify your hate exept other haters.  The rest of the RPG world is just fine facing the truth.

Hate? Who said I hate D&D?

I just don't think D&D should be considered the Holy-Cow it is on this board nor do I treat it as such. I *actually* consider D&D3 to be one of the best RPG's ever made. However I certainly don't think it's better than some of the other top-tier RPGs out there.

Quote from: halfrungDisagree. I remember the days when a half dozen kids in every junior high class played D&D. It has massive market penetration and name recognition for people my age. I know long-time D&D players who aren't even aware of the existence of Palladium, or Castles and Crusades, or WFRP.

I also remember the days in my Jr. High when I asked RIFTS players about D&D and got the same "what's that?" response. I've seen the same with Vampire, GURPS and ShadowRun players too. It's my understanding that *most* RPG players play one game and only one game, and that one game is NOT always D&D. It's whatever they played first!

Look - Its a BIG fucking chunk of the industry and the "entry point game" for most people when they try RPGs for the first time.

 So - I don't think it can "Die". The hour HASBRO/WotC gives up on supporting it - you just know some other publisher will try to get the rights cheaply or at least affordably.

 Not to be an 's' about this minor detail : But is there an "s" missing from one of the words in the thread title?


- Ed C.

Quote from: KrakaJakI just don't think D&D should be considered the Holy-Cow it is on this board nor do I treat it as such.

Wow.  So those of us who think that D&D is important to the hobby and the industry should stop now, because you don't think it is.  Yes, sir!

Quote from: KrakaJakI *actually* consider D&D3 to be one of the best RPG's ever made. However I certainly don't think it's better than some of the other top-tier RPGs out there.

You mean second tier, right?

See, it's important to make he distinction of whether or not you are talking about your taste in games, or the market.  If it's your taste, well, your tiers are yours to decide.  If you put D&D in a tier with others, and you don't think it's better than some of the others in your top tier...ummm..yeah...ok...great for you.  But if you're talking about the market, there is only one game in the top tier.  Eveything else is second tier or below.  That's just the way it shakes out. Sorry.

Quote from: KrakaJakI also remember the days in my Jr. High when I asked RIFTS players about D&D and got the same "what's that?" response. I've seen the same with Vampire, GURPS and ShadowRun players too. It's my understanding that *most* RPG players play one game and only one game, and that one game is NOT always D&D. It's whatever they played first!

And hey, guess what, it's very likley that most people play D&D first!  Amazing, huh?  Does that make it objectively better? No.  But you've befuddled and conflated a bunch of issues, so it's really hard to tell exactly what your point is...

Quote from: KrakaJakBut just as White-Wolf filled the void in the late 90's someone else will fill the void if D&D4 tanks.

D&D isn't the industry. But it is the major player in the industry.

If D&D4 tanks, nobody "fills the void." Sure, some publisher or another will probably expand to a noticeable degree, but I bet a bunch will go out of business trying to expand to "fill the void." But if D&D goes away, the entire RPG market shrinks, rather than smaller entities getting bigger to keep the industry at the same level.

None of which should affect your local play group one bit.

Quote from: HaffrungIt isn't just a matter of keeping today's players either. RPGs have a steep attrition rate once people reach kids and mortgage age. If the industry can't attract new gamers in large numbers, it's demographic fate is to age and shrink. And to reach new gamers in large numbers, you need mass-market presence and name branding. I just don't see another game coming along to take the place of D&D on the shelves of all those Barnes & Noble and in the imaginations of hundreds of thousands of gamers. You're just not going to see 13-year-olds mooching $30 off their parents to buy the Hawkmoon RPG or Ars Magica.

Good point. I've lost count of the mumber of times over the years people have responded with "oh, you mean Dungeons & Dragons" when I've told them I roleplayed. As far as new blood is concerned it's the only game in town, unless they're fortunate enough to know a group who plays a wide variety of other games.

Like it or not D&D has a place in the mindscape of society at large that other systems simply don't. In the unlikely event of it's sudden demise any contenders for the vacant throne would be fighting against a juggernaut of cultural momentum and expectation it's built up over the last 30+ years.

D&D is obviously not the entirety of the hobby... its only such a large part of it that what would be left if D&D suddenly disappeared wouldn't rightly deserve to be called an "industry", it would be an "amateur publishing business" at best.

Effectively, D&D IS the industry.

RPGPundit

As noted above, you're confusing whether the hobby would survive DnD's demise with the nature of the industry.

The industry as of today and as of pretty much the whole history of the hobby is DnD and some other stuff.

The hobby too in fact, if DnD died off then the hobby would be the other stuff, and would be a much smaller hobby.

But basically, our tastes don't shape reality.  I regard DnD 3e as a great piece of design that does nothing I am interested in in gaming, I don't particularly like it for all I respect it.  But what has that to do with its share of the industry?  Nothing at all.

DnD pretty much is the industry, everything else is a bit of a footnote, sufficiently so that it can be hard to discuss industry trends without actually excluding DnD as otherwise the only trends worth discussing are those that affect DnD.

None of this has anything to do with its quality as a game, though I do think it's quality as a game has plenty to do with its popularity and resulting 300lb gorilla status.

Incidentally, for the last month Changeling: The Lost has been the bestselling RPG in this country: it's been holding the #1 spot on the list of the most popular products at the local chain of gaming stores ever since it was released. D&D comes in at #9 with the PHB.

Quote from: GrimGentIncidentally, for the last month Changeling: The Lost has been the bestselling RPG in this country: it's been holding the #1 spot on the list of the most popular products at the local chain of gaming stores ever since it was released. D&D comes in at #9 with the PHB.

That actually proves the point.  A book that has technically been in print since the beginning of our hobby holds a spot in the top 10.  Lots of new games have a time in the spotlight, and then fade away...while D&D products continue to sell at an impressive rate untill they go out of print for a new edition.

If you were a publisher, would you rather have a book at #1 for a month or two and sell 100,000 copies, or have a book that stays on the charts from the day you print it till you stop ptinint it selling 50,000 copies a month?

P.S.  I better add that those numbers are purely fictitious, stated simply to make the point.

Quote from: grubmanA book that has technically been in print since the beginning of our hobby holds a spot in the top 10.  Lots of new games have a time in the spotlight, and then fade away...while D&D products continue to sell at an impressive rate untill they go out of print for a new edition.

It's a steady seller, true. You can generally count on that PHB being somewhere in the top 15, even when the list otherwise isn't overwhelmingly dominated by D&D.

Quote from: KrakaJakI think this should be addressed:

I DO NOT think the "RPG Industry" relies on D&D. I think if D&D 4 tanks...then RPG's wil be fine and another game (or group of games...evening out the marketplace a bit) will fill the RPG void.

I somewhat agree, but not quite. The reason that Wizards are able to support the behemoth (by RPG industry standards) that is D&D is that they've got the cash and infrastructure to back it up: they can afford to print massive print runs of major rulebooks, they can convince the distributors to buy those books in large quantities and distribute them to both game stores and the mainstream book industry in large quantities.

If D&D sank like a stone, I'm not sure that there's very many RPG companies at all who could step up to the bat and fill the gap - at least not immediately. White Wolf are the only company who really operate on anything approaching Wizards' scale, if the charts in Comics and Games Retailer are to be believed, and I don't think all those suddenly-disenfranchised D&D players are going to switch to the World of Darkness or something: those who have any interest in those games probably already own them. World of Darkness sales may remain strong - they might even get stronger - but they won't match current D&D sales.

In the absence of an obvious replacement for D&D immediately appearing on the scene, two things will happen:

a) Firstly, those gamers who are only interested in D&D will shrug, stick to their D&D manuals, and stop buying new RPG products. This will cause the market to shrink, probably significantly.

b) Secondly, those gamers who want to buy new products will diversify. They won't all go for one particular game - they'll go for dozens of different games. The ~50% market share that Wizards enjoys will fragment and be scattered amongst a dozen different competing companies - and because no one company will get the lion's share, no RPG company will acquire the funds necessary to give the support to their flagship game that Wizards gives to D&D.

The demise of D&D won't immediately cause the death of the industry, but it will badly damage the marketplace, which will inevitably cause the industry to shrink. Game shops will close or reduce the selection of RPGs they carry. People will have to turn to ordering stuff online more often, because of the disappearance of Friendly Local Game Shops. The RPG hobby will, therefore, lose much of its visibility (especially since D&D will disappear from the shelves of mainstream book stores): people will only stumble across it if they actually google for it, and they'll only know to google for it if they already know what they're looking for. The hobby will therefore gain less new blood, and will shrink, thus compressing the market even more.

Perhaps the contraction of the market will force enough small companies out of business for a larger company to gobble up their market share, to the point where a single game line establishes dominance, which will allow its publisher to make enough money to support it more, which will mean more product coming out and renewed interest from distributors, which will mean that the industry will begin to grow again. Perhaps the howling war of competing publishers will tear the industry apart and it will die. But the death of D&D would herald a very dark time indeed for the RPG industry, and it's by no means certain that the industry will survive that. No sane person wants to risk that.

Of course, it probably won't happen. If D&D flops as an RPG, Hasbro will either a) sell it off or b) keep the trademark for the profitable miniatures game and computer game licences, but will probably be inclined to licence the RPG rights to some other company if the approach is made correctly. White Wolf can probably afford to acquire the licence, and they'll put out a new version of D&D and hopefully learn not to make whatever terrible mistakes Wizards made to kill D&D, and the industry will survive. The D&D trademark is valuable, at least in gaming industry terms - too valuable to kill off.

Quote from: GrimGentIncidentally, for the last month Changeling: The Lost has been the bestselling RPG in this country: it's been holding the #1 spot on the list of the most popular products at the local chain of gaming stores ever since it was released. D&D comes in at #9 with the PHB.

Think that might have something to do with the fact 4E was announced a couple weeks ago?

Quote from: HaffrungThink that might have something to do with the fact 4E was announced a couple weeks ago?

Probably not: it's not as though PHB is usually at the top at other times, either. But it's interesting that out of the actual RPG books, the only other D&D product on the list is The Expedition to the Ruins of Greyhawk. Both Warhammer (Tome of Salvation) and GURPS (Martial Arts) have one book each in there. WoD has five.

(Hmm. #15 is Tähti, the new Finnish game about teenage mutant popstars in a girl band of the near future. That's a little unexpected.)

Quote from: GrimGentIncidentally, for the last month Changeling: The Lost has been the bestselling RPG in this country: it's been holding the #1 spot on the list of the most popular products at the local chain of gaming stores ever since it was released. D&D comes in at #9 with the PHB.

Which country are you in , Grimgent?
(YOu don't have an identified location in your profile)


Every month of those Comics & Games Retailer charts - D&D/D20 is the topseller.  I really doubt that in 2 month's time  the charts for either September or August will show D&D dropping out of #1.


- Ed C.

Quote from: KoltarWhich country are you in , Grimgent?

Finland. Things are a tad different over here: while all in all D&D undoubtedly remains the most popular single RPG, it's nowhere near the only alternative even for beginners, and the general public is more likely to associate gaming with LARP than it.

Dude, its Finland. Making statements about gamer-trends based on what's going on in Finland, or that Finland has any kind of protagonism in the RPG Industry at all, is a bit like claiming that "Madonna must be very unpopular because relatively few people in Burkina Faso know who she is", or "my poll taken at a BDSM Fetishists Convention indicates that vanilla sex is relatively unpopular worldwide these days".

Indeed, the very fact that D&D has a presence in Finland at all should speak just how significant D&D's presence really is.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditIndeed, the very fact that D&D has a presence in Finland at all should speak just how significant D&D's presence really is.

Well, let's not forget that around here someone interested in learning more about RPGs can visit the local libraries and find translations of Forge games rather than D&D. Actually, it's more probable that he'd find RuneQuest than D&D, since most libraries seem to have translated copies of that available. You can expect the average young Finn to be reasonably skilled in English (since our educational system isn't too shabby), but for children that sort of easy access might make all the difference.

And it does bring up a point, that D&D's role in the industry in english-speaking countries is something entirely different than it's role in non-english speaking countries.  My LGS carries a pretty complete line of french rpgs (both french-produced games and translated games) and WotC has a much smaller footprint on those shelves.  It's still pretty big, but nothing like the english shelves, which is about half Wizards products.  If the french rpg industry is anything like the french (well, belgian) comics book industry, there is a whole lot of stuff going on out there that most of us have never heard of.  

If D&D were to die today, I think it would really hurt the retail outlets and the larger online stores, but I don't think it would hurt the hobby at all (as was mentioned above, D&D players would just keep doing what they are doing and others would still have tons of great gaming options).  I suspect the second-tier companies would benefit, though it would be tricky and depend on some strategic marketing and smart business decisions to take advantage of the vacuum left by D&D.  Some would get hurt too.

After it all washes out, I don't think the industry would be dead.  It would morph and grow into something else.

And it could be possible for D&D to die, if it wasn't profitable and Hasbro strangled it, but wouldn't sell it to anyone for a low enough price, there might not be a buyer with the capital and competencies to revive the line.  That happened post-TSR and it was only because of the massive success of Magic that WotC was able to buy D&D.

Quote from: GrimGentWell, let's not forget that around here someone interested in learning more about RPGs can visit the local libraries and find translations of Forge games rather than D&D. Actually, it's more probable that he'd find RuneQuest than D&D, since most libraries seem to have translated copies of that available. You can expect the average young Finn to be reasonably skilled in English (since our educational system isn't too shabby), but for children that sort of easy access might make all the difference.

Holy crap, that is awesome.  Man, you can't even find D&D books in the library around here.

Quote from: KoltarWhich country are you in , Grimgent?
(YOu don't have an identified location in your profile)


Every month of those Comics & Games Retailer charts - D&D/D20 is the topseller.  I really doubt that in 2 month's time  the charts for either September or August will show D&D dropping out of #1.

I believe the difference between the C&GR charts and the ones GrimGent is citing is that the C&GR charts cover entire game lines - so the "Dungeons & Dragons" entry in them covers every single manual, supplement, and adventure put out by Wizards for D&D - whilst GrimGent's charts cover individual products.

So, it's entirely believable that the PHB could zoom up and down in GrimGent's charts, even though when you take entire game lines into accounts D&D is number one in C&GR all the time. (In fact, the fact that the PHB is nigh-always in GrimGent's charts says a lot - it means that there's plenty of people, every month, who want additional copies of the core D&D books, which says fabulous things about the game's health.) At the same time, a product can zoot to the top of GrimGent's chart and still not be the best-selling game line in a particular month if there aren't any other products for that game line selling.

Quote from: walkerpMan, you can't even find D&D books in the library around here.

I couldn't find those, either. I'm not entirely sure why, but none of the libraries in this town have ever stocked D&D. Still, they do have Pendragon, Ars Magica, Cyberpunk, Call of Cthulhu, Dark Conspiracy, and so on.

Quote from: GrimGentI couldn't find those, either. I'm not entirely sure why, but none of the libraries in this town have ever stocked D&D. Still, they do have Pendragon, Ars Magica, Cyberpunk, Call of Cthulhu, Dark Conspiracy, and so on.

Which town are you in? What section are RPGs in? Not that I have a right to expect much, but I haven't had much luck finding anything I can read in libraries since moving to Finland.

It's cool that Finnish libraries have enough funding that they can buy gaming books that hardly anyone will read just because, I suspect, one of the guys who works there is a hardcore RPG player.

However, I have to wonder how useful it is to able to borrow an RPG for a couple weeks at a time. I mean, if you're going to actually play the game, you need the books on-hand every session.

Quote from: JimLotFPWhich town are you in? What section are RPGs in?

Jyväskylä. Wherever you are, the usual arrangement appears to be that for adults the books are available under "games" in general, just like any chess manual might be, but in the children's section they'll be set apart from everything else on a shelf of their own.

Quote from: HaffrungHowever, I have to wonder how useful it is to able to borrow an RPG for a couple weeks at a time. I mean, if you're going to actually play the game, you need the books on-hand every session.

That depends on the game, naturally enough. If it's something light like Prince Valiant, you can easily master the mechanics and learn to play without the book itself long before the month is over.

Quote from: HaffrungIt's cool that Finnish libraries have enough funding that they can buy gaming books that hardly anyone will read just because, I suspect, one of the guys who works there is a hardcore RPG player.

However, I have to wonder how useful it is to able to borrow an RPG for a couple weeks at a time. I mean, if you're going to actually play the game, you need the books on-hand every session.

If there were a game library near me where I could borrow manuals for a while, read them through, and perhaps run a few sessions before giving the manual back, I'd use that. It'd be a great way to test the waters before spending money on a game.

Quote from: KrakaJakBut just as White-Wolf filled the void in the late 90's

There was no void in the late '90s.  D&D never went anywhere.

KoOS

Quote from: KoltarLook - Its a BIG fucking chunk of the industry and the "entry point game" for most people when they try RPGs for the first time.

 So - I don't think it can "Die". The hour HASBRO/WotC gives up on supporting it - you just know some other publisher will try to get the rights cheaply or at least affordably.

 Not to be an 's' about this minor detail : But is there an "s" missing from one of the words in the thread title?


- Ed C.

Doe!

Quote from: RPGPunditDude, its Finland. Making statements about gamer-trends based on what's going on in Finland, or that Finland has any kind of protagonism in the RPG Industry at all, is a bit like claiming that "Madonna must be very unpopular because relatively few people in Burkina Faso know who she is", or "my poll taken at a BDSM Fetishists Convention indicates that vanilla sex is relatively unpopular worldwide these days".

So in other words, Finland is just as irrelevant as Uruguay?

KoOS

Quote from: KoOSThere was no void in the late '90s.  D&D never went anywhere.

However...D&D did suck ass, and many of the players fled to different games, or went back to playing their old books and new players in the hobby started on Vampire or RIFTS. When White-Wolf was the top publisher in the business (because TSR/D&D had dropped the ball), the business was as healthy as it always was.

That's also kinda my point. D&D leaving would not actually leave a void. People would move on and play new/different things. People would still be playing RPG's and as long as people get invited to games, they will continue to attract new players.

Which is to say D&D does not matter as much as people think it does!

Quote from: KrakaJakThat's also kinda my point. D&D leaving would not actually leave a void. People would move on and play new/different things. People would still be playing RPG's and as long as people get invited to games, they will continue to attract new players.

Yeah, but if every RPG ever published to date was collected in a pile and burnt, people would still move on and play new and different things.  The adaptability of the hobby (and thereby of the market) doesn't mean that D&D isn't the driving force in it right now.

Quote from: KrakaJakWhich is to say D&D does not matter as much as people think it does!

Okay.  Some people may think that D&D makes the planets stay in their orbits and the sun give light.  It is true that D&D does not matter as much as those people think it does.

But the people who just think it's the totally dominant game in the market, and that it can rearrange the marketing landscape unilaterally and leave everyone else scrambling to adapt?  Those people are right.  D&D matters exactly as much as they think it does.

Quote from: KrakaJakWhen White-Wolf was the top publisher in the business (because TSR/D&D had dropped the ball),

Which was what, like 1 month when WW was at their Zenith and TSR at their nadir?

Quotethe business was as healthy as it always was.

This sounds like a pretty naked, unsupported statement. By what do you judge how "healthy" the business was?

Quote from: Ceasar SlaadThis sounds like a pretty naked, unsupported statement. By what do you judge how "healthy" the business was?

Given there are no major data of sales history to go by...I have to go by my local observations.

Pretty much by basing it on the happiness of my local game stores combined with the availability at local/chain Bookstores/Comic Shops in my area:)

15 Years ago, the one hobby gameshop was doing almost exactly as well as it is now (2 Employees, one owner, labor of love, staying afloat, gotten to know the people there pretty well), the market has grown enough to support 2 gameshops in my town. The second gameshop is mostly supported by CCGs.


The big bookstores used to carry D&D and Battletech in the early 90's. In the mid to late 90's they no longer carried D&D, but carried Vampire/Werewolf/Mage and Shadowrun and maybe a Gurps or RIFTS corebook.

They usually always had 2-3 shelves of stuff. Today it's about half D&D books, a third White-Wolf books (Exalted, WoD, McWoD) and whatevers left goes to the occasional smaller press books (Kobolds Ate My Baby, Gurps, Shadowrun, RIFTS) . It's, however, still 2-3 shelves of stuff.

Any non-english speaking country (with a few exceptions of cases where specific countries were targeted by a company, like Shadowrun and CoC apparently did in Germany or GURPS did in Brazil) is pretty much going to be very skewed based on what the local community ends up "importing" and nothing more.

So for example, here in Uruguay, you see Amber being played, and Shadowrun, and you'd think that games like 7th sea and Deadlands were far more popular than they really are worldwide, just because certain fans of those games ended up introducing them to the Uruguayan "market"; on the other hand if Uruguay was your only point of reference you'd think Exalted was a miserable failure, because absolutely NO ONE plays it (even though plenty of people play other WoD games).  The only reason for this is because no one bothered to bring any Exalted books into Uruguay, hence its a nonentity here.

Its notable that, in just about every country where RPGs are played at all, D&D IS played and is popular.

RPGPundit

I think it takes a great deal of willful blindness not to see that D&D is clearly the vast majority of the industry.

And if the vast majority of any industry died off, you'd be left with no real industry to speak of.

If D&D/WotC went away, RPGs would effectively go away.  Sure, you could still order them as specialty products direct from the manufacturer, but that'd be about it.  There's no way the distributors or gaming stores would survive a loss of 60+% of the market.

That market loss would not be recovered by competitor products at any real level.  The White Wolf situation pretty much proved that one.  They managed to bring in a completely new market segment by hitting on a cultural zeitgeist, which is a pretty rare thing to do, and they still only managed to capture something like 30% of a market that was incredibly stagnant at the time (TSR on its deathbed, most mid-tier companies died off, etc).

Was TSR putting anything out in the later 90's?  I mean I think that if D&D goes, that's pretty much it, but I wonder if there are any facts on D&D publishing in the late 90's?

Quote from: chucklesWas TSR putting anything out in the later 90's?  I mean I think that if D&D goes, that's pretty much it, but I wonder if there are any facts on D&D publishing in the late 90's?

Yes there ARE some facts.....but I posted them in that OTHER thread, that is very similiar to this thread.

 Take a look:


http://www.therpgsite.com/forums/showpost.php?p=138182&postcount=36


- Ed C.

Quote from: jgantsI think it takes a great deal of willful blindness not to see that D&D is clearly the vast majority of the industry.

And if the vast majority of any industry died off, you'd be left with no real industry to speak of.

If D&D/WotC went away, RPGs would effectively go away.  Sure, you could still order them as specialty products direct from the manufacturer, but that'd be about it.  There's no way the distributors or gaming stores would survive a loss of 60+% of the market.

Eh?  As far as I know, no distributors or gaming stores depend on RPGs for the majority of their sales.  Miniatures, trading card games, and others are more at the core of their businesses.  They'd take a hit from the loss of official D&D products, but RPGs are just a small fraction of their base.  

Quote from: jgantsThat market loss would not be recovered by competitor products at any real level.  The White Wolf situation pretty much proved that one.  They managed to bring in a completely new market segment by hitting on a cultural zeitgeist, which is a pretty rare thing to do, and they still only managed to capture something like 30% of a market that was incredibly stagnant at the time (TSR on its deathbed, most mid-tier companies died off, etc).

I don't see what that proves.  Yes, it seems like the goth role-playing market that has been the core for White Wolf is only roughly half as big as the fantasy geek market that's at the core of D&D.  However, that doesn't say anything about how nearly-identical D20/OGL stuff will sell to that same core audience in the absence of official D&D material.  

TSR may have been on its deathbed in the mid-90s in terms of finances, but it was still publishing a big pile of products -- which isn't the same thing as D&D going away.

Quote from: jhkimEh?  As far as I know, no distributors or gaming stores depend on RPGs for the majority of their sales.  Miniatures, trading card games, and others are more at the core of their businesses.  They'd take a hit from the loss of official D&D products, but RPGs are just a small fraction of their base.

I was talking about the RPG segment of their business.  D&D is the core of the RPG segment.  Without D&D sales to make that segment worthwhile, it would make more sense for distributors and gaming stores to simply abandon RPGs all together and focus exclusively on the miniatures, CCGs, etc.

See, businesses like having lower risk products mixed in with the higher risk products.  D&D is pretty much as low risk as it gets for RPGs.  Selling a bunch of D&D stuff means they can afford to take risks by ordering other, less-popular stuff, like GURPS or whatever.  Without D&D to keep the risk low, they are far more likely just to go "meh, let's not even bother" when it comes to ordering other RPGs.

Quote from: jhkimI don't see what that proves.  Yes, it seems like the goth role-playing market that has been the core for White Wolf is only roughly half as big as the fantasy geek market that's at the core of D&D.  However, that doesn't say anything about how nearly-identical D20/OGL stuff will sell to that same core audience in the absence of official D&D material.

Well that's pretty easy to guesstimate.  Without a strong, "official" source, the market will fracture to the point where no one has quite enough customers to be profitable (the "balkanization" effect that others mentioned previously).  D&D is the apple pie of the industry - something that enough people can agree on (even if it isn't their personal first choice) to create the necessary network externalities for the industry.

Then there's the fact that without D&D, many customers or future potential customers won't even bother to search out for a D20/OGL replacement.  D&D has name recognition.  D&D has marketing efforts.  No OGL product has that.

And don't forget - there were quite a lot of players who had stopped playing AD&D.  They didn't move to new games, they just stopping playing RPGs all together.  What brought a lot of them back?  D&D 3.0.

Quote from: jhkimTSR may have been on its deathbed in the mid-90s in terms of finances, but it was still publishing a big pile of products -- which isn't the same thing as D&D going away.

The point here was that TSR was incredibly weak and vulnerable at that point - and yet was still managed to maintain its market share in the face of a rapidly expanding, strong competitor.  That says something about how the market works; specifically, how mobile the customer base is (or in this case, isn't).

Quote from: grubmanThat actually proves the point.  A book that has technically been in print since the beginning of our hobby holds a spot in the top 10.  Lots of new games have a time in the spotlight, and then fade away...while D&D products continue to sell at an impressive rate untill they go out of print for a new edition.

Anyone got any stats on relative sales of different editions of D&D?

THe notion that an OGL product could compete with or replace D&D itself is pretty endemic of the kind of egotism and self-delusion that is rampant in the D20 aftermarket.  

Contrary to popular belief, by and large the secondary market for D20/OGL products is no bigger than the rest of the second tier.  Sure Mongoose managed to push their way up there by shotgun effect, but look at all the other companies that went belly up convinced that just slapping the D20 logo on something would automatically mean D&D-level sales.  

It ain't happening.  Any OGL replacement would lack the official stamp, which is itself a death mark, but more than that, it would lack the creative and financial resources Wizards has at its disposal.

If 4th ed AD&D went belly up, presumably Wizards/Hasbro would sell the name off? I suspect there would be another game going by the name D&D sooner or later, its too big a brand to lose.

Quote from: KrakaJakHowever...D&D did suck ass, and many of the players fled to different games, or went back to playing their old books and new players in the hobby started on Vampire or RIFTS.

And D&D was still the most popular RPG in the world by a country mile.

QuoteWhen White-Wolf was the top publisher in the business (because TSR/D&D had dropped the ball), the business was as healthy as it always was.

As Abyssal Maw said, WW has never been the top publisher in the business for any sustained period of time; certainly, no longer than a single fiscal quarter.  It's pretty much always been TSR/Wizards first and everybody else a distant second.

That said, I agree that the industry was much healthier during WW's zenith than it is today.  I think seeing the industry today as healthy is a bit blinkered... just as blinkered as claiming that the industry doesn't need D&D.

QuoteThat's also kinda my point. D&D leaving would not actually leave a void. People would move on and play new/different things. People would still be playing RPG's and as long as people get invited to games, they will continue to attract new players.

If D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition.  There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it.  This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it.  In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced.  That's a void.

KoOS

Quote from: J ArcaneAny OGL replacement would lack the official stamp, which is itself a death mark, but more than that, it would lack the creative and financial resources Wizards has at its disposal.

Official stamp, yes.  Financial resources, yes.  Creative resources, no.  The creatives would just find their way to other games and companies, just like the current creatives at Wizards came from other games and companies.

But yeah, I think people vastly underestimate both the power of the D&D brand and the impact of Hasbro's financial muscle.

KoOS

Quote from: King of Old SchoolOfficial stamp, yes.  Financial resources, yes.  Creative resources, no.  The creatives would just find their way to other games and companies, just like the current creatives at Wizards came from other games and companies.

But yeah, I think people vastly underestimate both the power of the D&D brand and the impact of Hasbro's financial muscle.

KoOS

There's not a single company out there that can afford to keep the kind of on-staff creative team that Wizards can.  Not a one.  

Sure those staff once vacated could probably go off and do some freelance work for the remaining companies, but they're far more likely to go for other, non-RPGs, where they can continue making a decent living, like moving to video games as so many RPG writers have done already.  

You can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

Quote from: King of Old SchoolIf D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition.  There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it.  This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it.  In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced.  That's a void.

I don't think anyone's disagreeing with that significantly.  The player base would most certainly be reduced, perhaps by 50% if nothing else takes up the slack.  The question is what effect this would have on other RPGs.  

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

Outside of the RPG field, I don't find that staff writers are necessarily better than signed authors.  Outside of some ghost-written series, most novels come from freelancers, for example.  Within RPGs, I find that many (though not all) of my favorite works come from freelance or independent authors -- and a bunch I'm not sure about.

Novels aren't game designs.  

Novels also pay better, even for freelancers.

RPGs aren't really books, they're games, in terms of what it takes to do one professionally and produce a qulity product on the level of D&D 3e, for example.

If you want a better comparison, try lining up a video game from a triple-A development house next to some guy's shareware game that he made in his spare time.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

A significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

Quote from: J ArcaneNovels aren't game designs.  

Novels also pay better, even for freelancers.

RPGs aren't really books, they're games, in terms of what it takes to do one professionally and produce a qulity product on the level of D&D 3e, for example.

If you want a better comparison, try lining up a video game from a triple-A development house next to some guy's shareware game that he made in his spare time.

Novels don't pay shit.

Quote from: AosNovels don't pay shit.

And RPGs pay even less.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

In my world you can.  I don't find the quality of Wizards stuff any better than a wide range of RPG products from the middle-sized (SJGames, Pinnacle, Evil Hat, KenzerCo) and individual producers and many of them rely on freelancers or are doing it on the side.

Quote from: jgantsSee, businesses like having lower risk products mixed in with the higher risk products.  D&D is pretty much as low risk as it gets for RPGs.  Selling a bunch of D&D stuff means they can afford to take risks by ordering other, less-popular stuff, like GURPS or whatever.  Without D&D to keep the risk low, they are far more likely just to go "meh, let's not even bother" when it comes to ordering other RPGs.

That's a good point, but your later analysis suggests that demand for rpg products is driven by supply.  Don't you think the demand will continue to be there, although to a lesser degree, and the potential for demand, to the same degree, as well?  There will be a vacuum in the market and in the medium to long-term someone could move in to start filling it.  

I'm just saying that I agree with your initial prognostication, but after time, if game stores stay open selling CCGs, minis, etc. I could see RPGs coming back in some new form.  The D&D brand is massive, it's true.  But I think that the practice of RPGs will exist without it and eventually the market will reflect that.

Quote from: GunslingerA significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

Sourcebooks, sure, there's freelancers.  And look how awful some of the sourcebooks have been.  And how much of the focus has been lost.  

If you want to produce a game as tightly woven, intricate, and interrelated, as what you find in the D&D corebooks, you need a dedicated development team, working together.  

You're not gonna get that from a gaggle of random freelancers you managed to feed enough money to buy a weeks worth of ramen packets.

Quote from: J ArcaneSourcebooks, sure, there's freelancers.  And look how awful some of the sourcebooks have been.  And how much of the focus has been lost.  

If you want to produce a game as tightly woven, intricate, and interrelated, as what you find in the D&D corebooks, you need a dedicated development team, working together.  

You're not gonna get that from a gaggle of random freelancers you managed to feed enough money to buy a weeks worth of ramen packets.

This may be a failure of what we're considering freelance.  WOTC has a dedicated staffing of writers that are freelance (I'd guess artists as well).  They're paid for work they accept and complete.  They are given timelines and parameters for a WOTC project by the full time staff.  They're not contributions that WOTC accepts and publishes.  Now granted, I'm not a big fan of sourcebooks either (largely because of 2nd ed. and Rifts) but I also think you need a perspective outside the think tank for a game to grow.  The OGL has helped D&D expand in many arenas (mostly bad IMO) but at least it is growing based off the people who are actually playing it.  I don't see a fundamental difference in quality from a professional hobbyist and one who does it for entertainment.  Passion for your hobby is a quality outside of employment status, especially when it's an individual perspective that is the judge.

Quote from: GunslingerA significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

The real difference between professional and part-time publishers is graphic design, editing, and layout. Writers are a dime a dozen. All sorts of gamers have cool ideas and enough wordsmithing or system design skills to come up with sellable adventures and game books. And there really aren't many paying competing fields for these sorts of talents. Finding people who can put together and edit a professional text is another matter entirely. They usually have professional options that pay real money.

Quote from: KoOSAnd D&D was still the most popular RPG in the world by a country mile.

But not the top SELLING which is what matters when the Business is concerned. However, my local gamestores (and bookstores) didn't notice or care, as White-Wolf, Palladium and Gurps had picked up D&D's slack.

QuoteAs Abyssal Maw said, WW has never been the top publisher in the business for any sustained period of time; certainly, no longer than a single fiscal quarter. It's pretty much always been TSR/Wizards first and everybody else a distant second.

A constant 30% of the entire market is pretty good in my book, as Wizards has never let on what their actual Market share has been...who knows how much they really have. Shelf space wise it's never been more than 50% or so since the mid 90's.

QuoteIf D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition. There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it. This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it. In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced. That's a void.

D&D is synonomous with the outside world as "Nerdy". It's some sort of Math Game featuring nerdy fantasy shit. It's the game the ugly kids play on the weekends 'cause they're not cool enough to go to parties.

Many non-D&D players, inside the hobby, don't even consider D&D an actual RPG (again...not my opinion, but a popular enough one to note). It's a video-gamey "Hack & Slash" where the only thing that matters is your statline (Which can be true in some D&D games and is a fully supported playstyle). Thse outside the playerbase know very little...and don't care to change that!

And it's not the only entry point to the hobby anymore. It was in the eighties. Most of the people I talk to about RPG's that are my age started by playing RIFTS, D&D or Vampire in Jr. High in pretty equal measure (actually...mostly RIFTS).

As a brand and as a game, nothing could replace D&D. D&D is it's own entity unimitable (not even by it's ow creators in C&C) by anything else. If it left, however, everyone would move on and RPG's would still be played. They'd just be different ones.

I asked this before, didn't get an answer, so maybe the answer is 'don't know'.

Does anyone know the relative sales figures for core products of each edition of D&D and AD&D?

Is the product line, as a SATT system, on the up or on a long, slow death curve?

Quote from: KrakaJakBut not the top SELLING which is what matters when the Business is concerned. However, my local gamestores (and bookstores) didn't notice or care, as White-Wolf, Palladium and Gurps had picked up D&D's slack.

That your small local market is not dominated by D&D is insignificant.  What's important is that the national market is dominated by D&D.  

And yes, market share means sales.  It doesn't necessarily mean that individual D&D books always outsell the flavor of the month games (like Weapons of the Gods or whatever).  But it does mean that overall, the total sales for D&D books are greater than everyone else.

So why is this important, even if your FLGS can exist just by selling Rifts books?  Because distributors aren't local.  And unless Rifts takes up the slack in every other local market they serve, distributors aren't going to be making enough money off of RPGs to keep buying them (which, in turn, means the FLGS won't be buying them, either).

Being a Rifts fan, I'm sure you've read Kevin's press releases or murmurs from time to time.  Just this year, I'm sure you've heard him talking about the difficulties of getting distributors to order certain books he's tried to put out.  One of them was a Rifts book.

If it's hard to get distributors to order the books now, for fear of risk, surely you can see that by losing D&D sales the distributors would be even more skittish.

Quote from: KrakaJakA constant 30% of the entire market is pretty good in my book, as Wizards has never let on what their actual Market share has been...who knows how much they really have. Shelf space wise it's never been more than 50% or so since the mid 90's.

A constant 30% of the market is doing pretty good, no doubt about that (whether or not WW has had a constant 30%).  But the real point here is that 30% alone is not enough to support the industry.  Keep in mind - the industry has not exactly been doing great the last couple of years with the numbers it has now.  Surely a drop of 50% (or even 25%) would be a major problem.

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your "shelf space wise" estimate from, though.  Surely you realize that your FLGS (or FLGSes) are not necessarily indicative of the national market.

Quote from: KrakaJakD&D is synonomous with the outside world as "Nerdy". It's some sort of Math Game featuring nerdy fantasy shit. It's the game the ugly kids play on the weekends 'cause they're not cool enough to go to parties.

As opposed to WW, which is synonymous with "freaky"?  

Or GURPS or Rifts, which are synonymous to the outside world with "What?"

Or is there some RPG that appeals to the "cool kids" crowd that I'm not aware of?

Face it, it's a geeky hobby.  Whether you're a D&D nerd or a WW goth freak, it's all geek.  It will only ever appeal to geeks.  It's an inherently geeky activity.

Quote from: KrakaJakMany non-D&D players, inside the hobby, don't even consider D&D an actual RPG (again...not my opinion, but a popular enough one to note). It's a video-gamey "Hack & Slash" where the only thing that matters is your statline (Which can be true in some D&D games and is a fully supported playstyle). Thse outside the playerbase know very little...and don't care to change that!

As opposed to, say, the impression of Rifts to be a power-gamer munchkinfest?  Or the impression of WOD to be angsty art exercises?  Or the impression of GURPS to be a math contest?

Most games have their detractors.  Whether or not people like it or hate it, it is the big gorilla in the gaming world and everyone is better off with it than without it.

I liked AD&D and BD&D well enough, but they were never my favorites.  I didn't care for 3e, and 4e sounds even less appealing in some ways.  I rarely buy a RPG book that isn't a Rifts book these days.  But I still want D&D to be around - even if only to provide the support structure so that I can buy new Rifts books when I want.

Quote from: KrakaJakAnd it's not the only entry point to the hobby anymore. It was in the eighties. Most of the people I talk to about RPG's that are my age started by playing RIFTS, D&D or Vampire in Jr. High in pretty equal measure (actually...mostly RIFTS).

I don't think anyone is claiming it is the only entry point into the hobby.  There have been other entry points even in the early days (Traveller and Runequest in the 70's, for example).

However, D&D still does serve as the entry point at a rate 4x higher than everyone else combined.  That's a pretty significant number.

Quote from: KrakaJakAs a brand and as a game, nothing could replace D&D. D&D is it's own entity unimitable (not even by it's ow creators in C&C) by anything else. If it left, however, everyone would move on and RPG's would still be played. They'd just be different ones.

Playing?  Yes.  Because the hobby != the industry.

Still producing and still buying?  That's a much bigger gamble.  There would be a not-insignificant number of people who would simply not play RPGs without D&D being around.  How much can of the customer base can the industry as a whole afford to lose?  50%?  40%?  Even 20%?

Quote from: jgantsPlaying?  Yes.  Because the hobby != the industry.

Still producing and still buying?  That's a much bigger gamble.  There would be a not-insignificant number of people who would simply not play RPGs without D&D being around.  How much can of the customer base can the industry as a whole afford to lose?  50%?  40%?  Even 20%?

Suppose they do lose 20%?  What do you think would happen?  

For example, I see no reason why White Wolf would close up shop because a bunch of D&D players exit.  They'll probably manage a short-term boost of their Exalted sales from a fraction of the ex-D&D-ers.  Moreover, it is easily possible for people to release an extremely D&D-like game.  Heck, we already have decently-selling alternate rules like Iron Heroes and Arcana Unearthed along with older-edition-look-alikes like Hackmaster and Castles & Crusades.  The market would be fragmented more, but the second tier have always had to deal with a fragmented market.

There is a fundamental confusion in this thread.

The question was whether DnD is basically the industry, the answer is obviously yes.

Krakajak is actually arguing an entirely separate point, whether the industry would survive DnD's demise, I think the answer to that is also yes though it's less clear cut.

But they are entirely separate questions, and whether DnD is a great game or not is utterly irrelevant to both of them.

Edit:  Incidentally, extrapolating to what is primarily a US based industry with a smaller element in the UK and France on the basis of how things are in Finland is, well, let's just say that's not I think a reliable basis on which to form an analysis.

Quote from: BalbinusIncidentally, extrapolating to what is primarily a US based industry with a smaller element in the UK and France on the basis of how things are in Finland is, well, let's just say that's not I think a reliable basis on which to form an analysis.

And vice versa, of course. How would the demise of D&D affect gaming in those regions of the world where the game's influence has always been less significant?

Quote from: jgantsFace it, it's a geeky hobby.  Whether you're a D&D nerd or a WW goth freak, it's all geek.  It will only ever appeal to geeks.  It's an inherently geeky activity.

You can distinguish a D&D player from someone who prefers WoD, or recognize at a glance a gamer in a crowd? I couldn't. Of course, it wouldn't help that most gamers I know have no qualms about playing both of those, sometimes on different days of the same week, and the general public doesn't make the distinction either.

Quote from: GrimGentYou can distinguish a D&D player from someone who prefers WoD, or recognize at a glance a gamer in a crowd? I couldn't. Of course, it wouldn't help that most gamers I know have no qualms about playing both of those, sometimes on different days of the same week, and the general public doesn't make the distinction either.

I was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.  My point was that the stereotype of people who play RPGs will always be geeky, no matter which game is king of the mountain (I can't say for sure what KrakaJack's statement about D&D = nerd was meant to imply, but I inferred it to be a suggestion that perhaps RPGs would be more "cool" without D&D as the faceman).

Quote from: jgantsI was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.

Ah. Over here we all get lumped in with teenagers dressed up as elves whacking each other with boffer swords in the woods. D&D doesn't really come into that picture in the least.

(The average guy on the street usually has at least some notion of what roleplaying games entail, even when he confuses them all with LARPing. However, by and large it's only the gamers who actually know the name of Dungeons and Dragons, or Vampire for that matter. Most of the time the non-gaming public isn't really aware of any single game by itself.)

Quote from: jgantsI was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.  My point was that the stereotype of people who play RPGs will always be geeky, no matter which game is king of the mountain (I can't say for sure what KrakaJack's statement about D&D = nerd was meant to imply, but I inferred it to be a suggestion that perhaps RPGs would be more "cool" without D&D as the faceman).

That's not the point...the point is...on the ouside world RPG does NOT mean D&D. RPG means Final-Fantasy. Your average outsider HAS no fucking clue what this D&D thing is about.

However, you mention the name Dungeons & Dragons. They recognize the name, but it means some math game that NERDY losers play.

QuoteHowever, D&D still does serve as the entry point at a rate 4x higher than everyone else combined. That's a pretty significant number.

And where do you get that D&D is the entry point for 4x more players combined? Where's your data coming from?

My Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

Quote from: BalbinusKrakajak is actually arguing an entirely separate point, whether the industry would survive DnD's demise, I think the answer to that is also yes though it's less clear cut.

No...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

Here's another proposition, what if D&D falls again to the wayside with 4E? Not dead at all, but White-Wolf or Green-Ronin (or some other possibility) takes majority marketshare with a new game people are digging? The Industry wouldn't be losing any customer base at all. Once you've bought the game...you are no longer in the Market for it, but if it's a good game you'll tell your friends, and they'll tell their friends. The industry survives on new blood and new adopters, The game that get's them can be D&D as easily as a copy of TOON they found in a bargain bin.

As long as there are good games put out there to be played...the industry will thrive because the gamestores will have sales.

Quote from: KrakaJakMy Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

Really? You know the regional sales of Borders for what I'm assuming is the Southwest? Care to share? Ohhhh..it's shelf space.  That's different.

Because, if you are going by shelf space, I can share the same level of anecdotal evidence from here in Illinois - where every Border's around me (and there are...hmmm...5...within 30 minutes drive, I think) are completely and utterly dominated by D&D books.  Shelves upon shelves of them.

In fact, there's a local hobby store that carries a little Warhammer and a little D&D - couldnt find the book I wanted there, had to go to Borders (the gaming store was - can you believe it - closed because they had all gone to GenCon, fuckwits). Borders had multiple copies of all of the books I was looking for. There were a few....hmmm...I think there were one or two Vampire books, and a couple of others I can't recall.
 

Quote from: KrakaJakNo...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

Really?  It's not? On what do you base this assertion - shelf space at your borders in California? How big of a gorilla do you think I, a person, make it out to be?  Do you think I think it's more than 80% of the market? You'd be wrong. That's an absurd claim on so many points - not the least of which is that D&D is a huge fucking gorllia - it might be as large as all of the others combined.

Tell you what, KJ - go look at the numbers in this  (http://www.therpgsite.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6959)thread (thanks to Koltar).

Debate the meaning all you want - but these are actual figures from actual stores.

And as far as I can tell, If D&D disappeared tomorrow, so would 60% of the market.  How much would come back?  How much would shift to other games?

Interesting questions, and being discussed in other threads.

If you're hole point was to say the D&D =/= Industry - I'm not sure anyone would argue that.  But they sure are a big fucking hunk of it.

Quote from: KrakaJakThat's not the point...the point is...on the ouside world RPG does NOT mean D&D. RPG means Final-Fantasy. Your average outsider HAS no fucking clue what this D&D thing is about.

However, you mention the name Dungeons & Dragons. They recognize the name, but it means some math game that NERDY losers play.

Yeah, but given that the activity itself is rather nerdy, does it make more sense to:

A) Have name recognition that will cause people who like nerdy activities to seek it out.

OR

B) Have no name recognition at all, so that people who like nerdy activities don't know it exists.

I'm arguing for option A as the better situation.  Are you arguing for option B? Or for some mythical option C where the hobby gets "cool" name recognition somehow (despite still being a nerdy hobby)?

Quote from: KrakaJakAnd where do you get that D&D is the entry point for 4x more players combined? Where's your data coming from?

I'm pretty sure that came from one of the various things Dancey said.  You'll have to check with my editor, though, to see who did the fact-checking.  :rolleyes:

Quote from: KrakaJakMy Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

So, in one region of the US, WotC still gets "a little less than half" of the shelf space?  Let's say I agree to extrapolate your numbers to the national level, despite it being completely contrary to everyone else's numbers (like C&GRM, for example).

Something like 48% of the industry is still pretty big.  And the industry certainly couldn't survive a 48% loss any more than they could a 60% loss.

Quote from: KrakaJakNo...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

I'm saying 60%, you're saying 48%.  That's not really that big of difference.  It's still a big gorilla either way.

Quote from: KrakaJakHere's another proposition, what if D&D falls again to the wayside with 4E? Not dead at all, but White-Wolf or Green-Ronin (or some other possibility) takes majority marketshare with a new game people are digging? The Industry wouldn't be losing any customer base at all. Once you've bought the game...you are no longer in the Market for it, but if it's a good game you'll tell your friends, and they'll tell their friends. The industry survives on new blood and new adopters, The game that get's them can be D&D as easily as a copy of TOON they found in a bargain bin.

As long as there are good games put out there to be played...the industry will thrive because the gamestores will have sales.

Yes, if that happened then everything would work out great.  The problem is that to date no single game has ever even come close to being that popular.

I think what you're proposing would require a very dedicated group of individual, with a significant investment (it would need serious marketing efforts like we haven't seen since the 80's), and a good degree of luck, to hit on something that would suddenly attract a majority of new and existing role-players and be able to fend off competition.

Quote from: KrakaJakThat's not the point...the point is...on the ouside world RPG does NOT mean D&D. RPG means Final-Fantasy. Your average outsider HAS no fucking clue what this D&D thing is about.

Around here they sure do. I don't know how old you are, or where you live, but here in suburban Canada in the 80s D&D was huge. I'm talking kids playing in D&D clubs at almost every junior high school in Calgary huge.

I could walk around my office right now and I'd guess over a third the 40 guys I ask would have played D&D at some point in their life. I'd be suprised if more than one or two had ever played an RPG other than D&D.

In my demographic, D&D has huge recognition. And my demographic happens to match pretty closely to the peak of the bell curve of the age of pen-and-paper RPG players. Coincidence?

Quote from: KrakaJakHowever, you mention the name Dungeons & Dragons. They recognize the name, but it means some math game that NERDY losers play.

No more loserish among 25-40 year old men around here than PC games or comics.

I get the feeling you don't know many casual gamers. RPGnet and other fan sites are not indicative of the hobby as a whole. They're populated by hard-core RPG lovers who crave the new and the novel. They are the core of the hobby, but the do not have enough buying power to support the RPG industry. You need the casuals, the 14-year-olds who learn from their older cousins, the 38-year-olds with a family and mortgage looking to relive the glory years, the co-workers willing to try a new social activity. To most of those people, D&D is role-playing. Ask them to try Savage Worlds or Sorceror of Zo and you're taking them way out of their comfort zone.

Quote from: HaffrungAround here they sure do. I don't know how old you are, or where you live, but here in suburban Canada in the 80s D&D was huge. I'm talking kids playing in D&D clubs at almost every junior high school in Calgary huge.

Similar experience in B.C.

Quote from: HaffrungI could walk around my office right now and I'd guess over a third the 40 guys I ask would have played D&D at some point in their life. I'd be suprised if more than one or two had ever played an RPG other than D&D.

Except that in most cases along with D&D came all the other TSR games, Gamma World, Boot Hill, Gangbusters, we even threw in some Bushido.  I don't see this as the case with kids brought up on 3.5.  They seem much more limited to high fantasy as the gaming genre than we did.

Quote from: James J SkachTell you what, KJ - go look at the numbers in this  (http://www.therpgsite.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6959)thread (thanks to Koltar).

Debate the meaning all you want - but these are actual figures from actual stores.

And as far as I can tell, If D&D disappeared tomorrow, so would 60% of the market.  How much would come back?  How much would shift to other games?

Interesting questions, and being discussed in other threads.

If you're hole point was to say the D&D =/= Industry - I'm not sure anyone would argue that.  But they sure are a big fucking hunk of it.

I do know the ACTUAL regional sales for borders in Southwest United States. I'm not allowed to post those individual numbers publicly, but I'm sure I can share some of these market percentiles. The numbers from the link show that D&D is 55% of that datas marketshare, pretty close to Borders, which D&D is at about 49%. White-Wolf has a much stronger presence at Borders than in those numbers, 31% with Exalted represtenting almost 1/3 of WW total sales. Our per-store WTD are MUCH smaller though (good news for Hobby-Shop owners).

All these numbers aside, Borders could care less if D&D stopped selling. All it would mean is they would carry less (or no) Wizards of the Coast books. They would still carry RPGs as long as the books were selling. Hobby Stores (hopefully!) do not rely on RPG's for their sales...if D&D books stopped selling they'd stop carrying them too, but if other game books keep selling, they'd keep carrying them. They make all their money on Warhammer and Magic anyway :D

To put it another way...the PLAYERS (also read, buyers) are the industry. Any company on the map today or new company to come forward can take D&D's top spot, by making a new game and marketing it to NEW players.

That's why Wizards has the marketshare they have, they CREATE players of their game. They don't care about all the people bellyaching about 4th, it's coming and they and if their old players don't like it, fuck em, that's not who Wizards is selling to anyway!

Every edition of D&D was it's own marketplace that doesn't even COMPETE with other RPG's. White-Wolf, Green-Ronin (at least with WHFRP), SJG, etc. all have their own seperate customer bases. Only a stupid company would try to steal a fraction of an already small number like an RPG company trying to steal some fans of D&D. Like has been stated elsewhere, hardcore RPG players are few and far between. Most people play one game and stick with it, and that's whatever first game they played and liked.

For this region DUNGEONS & DRAGONS is NOT thought of as "that Nerdy math game".


If you mention RPGs to most local folks in Southwestern Ohio (Or Southeastern Indiana) they think of World of Warcraft , NOT Final Fantasy. No one is playing Final Fantasy any more.  If they think of other RPGS, then they say:  "Oh yeah that at the table game; Dungeons and Dragons." the next usually said is ..."But I never have enough time to get a group together"  Other related lines :
 "YEAh , I think my brother ( or sister) still plays that sometimes"

"D&D? My Dad (or Uncle, Aunt) still plays that. I've been meaning to try it ...I am in a guild in WoW, so he says I should kinda get it."

 SO, BOTH World Of Warcraft and Dungeons and Dragons are uusually thought of at first mention of RPGs.

 Liker I mentioned in that other thread -I've run into youg ladies at places like the HUSTLER store who are playing World of Warcraft. The guy who fixed some lights in my house plays in a guild in WOW. (He started asked me details about regular RPGs when he saw my bookshelves)


- Ed C.