Quote from: J ArcaneSourcebooks, sure, there's freelancers.  And look how awful some of the sourcebooks have been.  And how much of the focus has been lost.  

If you want to produce a game as tightly woven, intricate, and interrelated, as what you find in the D&D corebooks, you need a dedicated development team, working together.  

You're not gonna get that from a gaggle of random freelancers you managed to feed enough money to buy a weeks worth of ramen packets.

This may be a failure of what we're considering freelance.  WOTC has a dedicated staffing of writers that are freelance (I'd guess artists as well).  They're paid for work they accept and complete.  They are given timelines and parameters for a WOTC project by the full time staff.  They're not contributions that WOTC accepts and publishes.  Now granted, I'm not a big fan of sourcebooks either (largely because of 2nd ed. and Rifts) but I also think you need a perspective outside the think tank for a game to grow.  The OGL has helped D&D expand in many arenas (mostly bad IMO) but at least it is growing based off the people who are actually playing it.  I don't see a fundamental difference in quality from a professional hobbyist and one who does it for entertainment.  Passion for your hobby is a quality outside of employment status, especially when it's an individual perspective that is the judge.

Quote from: GunslingerA significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

The real difference between professional and part-time publishers is graphic design, editing, and layout. Writers are a dime a dozen. All sorts of gamers have cool ideas and enough wordsmithing or system design skills to come up with sellable adventures and game books. And there really aren't many paying competing fields for these sorts of talents. Finding people who can put together and edit a professional text is another matter entirely. They usually have professional options that pay real money.

Quote from: KoOSAnd D&D was still the most popular RPG in the world by a country mile.

But not the top SELLING which is what matters when the Business is concerned. However, my local gamestores (and bookstores) didn't notice or care, as White-Wolf, Palladium and Gurps had picked up D&D's slack.

QuoteAs Abyssal Maw said, WW has never been the top publisher in the business for any sustained period of time; certainly, no longer than a single fiscal quarter. It's pretty much always been TSR/Wizards first and everybody else a distant second.

A constant 30% of the entire market is pretty good in my book, as Wizards has never let on what their actual Market share has been...who knows how much they really have. Shelf space wise it's never been more than 50% or so since the mid 90's.

QuoteIf D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition. There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it. This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it. In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced. That's a void.

D&D is synonomous with the outside world as "Nerdy". It's some sort of Math Game featuring nerdy fantasy shit. It's the game the ugly kids play on the weekends 'cause they're not cool enough to go to parties.

Many non-D&D players, inside the hobby, don't even consider D&D an actual RPG (again...not my opinion, but a popular enough one to note). It's a video-gamey "Hack & Slash" where the only thing that matters is your statline (Which can be true in some D&D games and is a fully supported playstyle). Thse outside the playerbase know very little...and don't care to change that!

And it's not the only entry point to the hobby anymore. It was in the eighties. Most of the people I talk to about RPG's that are my age started by playing RIFTS, D&D or Vampire in Jr. High in pretty equal measure (actually...mostly RIFTS).

As a brand and as a game, nothing could replace D&D. D&D is it's own entity unimitable (not even by it's ow creators in C&C) by anything else. If it left, however, everyone would move on and RPG's would still be played. They'd just be different ones.

I asked this before, didn't get an answer, so maybe the answer is 'don't know'.

Does anyone know the relative sales figures for core products of each edition of D&D and AD&D?

Is the product line, as a SATT system, on the up or on a long, slow death curve?

Quote from: KrakaJakBut not the top SELLING which is what matters when the Business is concerned. However, my local gamestores (and bookstores) didn't notice or care, as White-Wolf, Palladium and Gurps had picked up D&D's slack.

That your small local market is not dominated by D&D is insignificant.  What's important is that the national market is dominated by D&D.  

And yes, market share means sales.  It doesn't necessarily mean that individual D&D books always outsell the flavor of the month games (like Weapons of the Gods or whatever).  But it does mean that overall, the total sales for D&D books are greater than everyone else.

So why is this important, even if your FLGS can exist just by selling Rifts books?  Because distributors aren't local.  And unless Rifts takes up the slack in every other local market they serve, distributors aren't going to be making enough money off of RPGs to keep buying them (which, in turn, means the FLGS won't be buying them, either).

Being a Rifts fan, I'm sure you've read Kevin's press releases or murmurs from time to time.  Just this year, I'm sure you've heard him talking about the difficulties of getting distributors to order certain books he's tried to put out.  One of them was a Rifts book.

If it's hard to get distributors to order the books now, for fear of risk, surely you can see that by losing D&D sales the distributors would be even more skittish.

Quote from: KrakaJakA constant 30% of the entire market is pretty good in my book, as Wizards has never let on what their actual Market share has been...who knows how much they really have. Shelf space wise it's never been more than 50% or so since the mid 90's.

A constant 30% of the market is doing pretty good, no doubt about that (whether or not WW has had a constant 30%).  But the real point here is that 30% alone is not enough to support the industry.  Keep in mind - the industry has not exactly been doing great the last couple of years with the numbers it has now.  Surely a drop of 50% (or even 25%) would be a major problem.

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your "shelf space wise" estimate from, though.  Surely you realize that your FLGS (or FLGSes) are not necessarily indicative of the national market.

Quote from: KrakaJakD&D is synonomous with the outside world as "Nerdy". It's some sort of Math Game featuring nerdy fantasy shit. It's the game the ugly kids play on the weekends 'cause they're not cool enough to go to parties.

As opposed to WW, which is synonymous with "freaky"?  

Or GURPS or Rifts, which are synonymous to the outside world with "What?"

Or is there some RPG that appeals to the "cool kids" crowd that I'm not aware of?

Face it, it's a geeky hobby.  Whether you're a D&D nerd or a WW goth freak, it's all geek.  It will only ever appeal to geeks.  It's an inherently geeky activity.

Quote from: KrakaJakMany non-D&D players, inside the hobby, don't even consider D&D an actual RPG (again...not my opinion, but a popular enough one to note). It's a video-gamey "Hack & Slash" where the only thing that matters is your statline (Which can be true in some D&D games and is a fully supported playstyle). Thse outside the playerbase know very little...and don't care to change that!

As opposed to, say, the impression of Rifts to be a power-gamer munchkinfest?  Or the impression of WOD to be angsty art exercises?  Or the impression of GURPS to be a math contest?

Most games have their detractors.  Whether or not people like it or hate it, it is the big gorilla in the gaming world and everyone is better off with it than without it.

I liked AD&D and BD&D well enough, but they were never my favorites.  I didn't care for 3e, and 4e sounds even less appealing in some ways.  I rarely buy a RPG book that isn't a Rifts book these days.  But I still want D&D to be around - even if only to provide the support structure so that I can buy new Rifts books when I want.

Quote from: KrakaJakAnd it's not the only entry point to the hobby anymore. It was in the eighties. Most of the people I talk to about RPG's that are my age started by playing RIFTS, D&D or Vampire in Jr. High in pretty equal measure (actually...mostly RIFTS).

I don't think anyone is claiming it is the only entry point into the hobby.  There have been other entry points even in the early days (Traveller and Runequest in the 70's, for example).

However, D&D still does serve as the entry point at a rate 4x higher than everyone else combined.  That's a pretty significant number.

Quote from: KrakaJakAs a brand and as a game, nothing could replace D&D. D&D is it's own entity unimitable (not even by it's ow creators in C&C) by anything else. If it left, however, everyone would move on and RPG's would still be played. They'd just be different ones.

Playing?  Yes.  Because the hobby != the industry.

Still producing and still buying?  That's a much bigger gamble.  There would be a not-insignificant number of people who would simply not play RPGs without D&D being around.  How much can of the customer base can the industry as a whole afford to lose?  50%?  40%?  Even 20%?

Quote from: jgantsPlaying?  Yes.  Because the hobby != the industry.

Still producing and still buying?  That's a much bigger gamble.  There would be a not-insignificant number of people who would simply not play RPGs without D&D being around.  How much can of the customer base can the industry as a whole afford to lose?  50%?  40%?  Even 20%?

Suppose they do lose 20%?  What do you think would happen?  

For example, I see no reason why White Wolf would close up shop because a bunch of D&D players exit.  They'll probably manage a short-term boost of their Exalted sales from a fraction of the ex-D&D-ers.  Moreover, it is easily possible for people to release an extremely D&D-like game.  Heck, we already have decently-selling alternate rules like Iron Heroes and Arcana Unearthed along with older-edition-look-alikes like Hackmaster and Castles & Crusades.  The market would be fragmented more, but the second tier have always had to deal with a fragmented market.

There is a fundamental confusion in this thread.

The question was whether DnD is basically the industry, the answer is obviously yes.

Krakajak is actually arguing an entirely separate point, whether the industry would survive DnD's demise, I think the answer to that is also yes though it's less clear cut.

But they are entirely separate questions, and whether DnD is a great game or not is utterly irrelevant to both of them.

Edit:  Incidentally, extrapolating to what is primarily a US based industry with a smaller element in the UK and France on the basis of how things are in Finland is, well, let's just say that's not I think a reliable basis on which to form an analysis.

Quote from: BalbinusIncidentally, extrapolating to what is primarily a US based industry with a smaller element in the UK and France on the basis of how things are in Finland is, well, let's just say that's not I think a reliable basis on which to form an analysis.

And vice versa, of course. How would the demise of D&D affect gaming in those regions of the world where the game's influence has always been less significant?

Quote from: jgantsFace it, it's a geeky hobby.  Whether you're a D&D nerd or a WW goth freak, it's all geek.  It will only ever appeal to geeks.  It's an inherently geeky activity.

You can distinguish a D&D player from someone who prefers WoD, or recognize at a glance a gamer in a crowd? I couldn't. Of course, it wouldn't help that most gamers I know have no qualms about playing both of those, sometimes on different days of the same week, and the general public doesn't make the distinction either.

Quote from: GrimGentYou can distinguish a D&D player from someone who prefers WoD, or recognize at a glance a gamer in a crowd? I couldn't. Of course, it wouldn't help that most gamers I know have no qualms about playing both of those, sometimes on different days of the same week, and the general public doesn't make the distinction either.

I was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.  My point was that the stereotype of people who play RPGs will always be geeky, no matter which game is king of the mountain (I can't say for sure what KrakaJack's statement about D&D = nerd was meant to imply, but I inferred it to be a suggestion that perhaps RPGs would be more "cool" without D&D as the faceman).

Quote from: jgantsI was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.

Ah. Over here we all get lumped in with teenagers dressed up as elves whacking each other with boffer swords in the woods. D&D doesn't really come into that picture in the least.

(The average guy on the street usually has at least some notion of what roleplaying games entail, even when he confuses them all with LARPing. However, by and large it's only the gamers who actually know the name of Dungeons and Dragons, or Vampire for that matter. Most of the time the non-gaming public isn't really aware of any single game by itself.)

Quote from: jgantsI was talking about the stereotypes of the players of those games, not actual ones.  My point was that the stereotype of people who play RPGs will always be geeky, no matter which game is king of the mountain (I can't say for sure what KrakaJack's statement about D&D = nerd was meant to imply, but I inferred it to be a suggestion that perhaps RPGs would be more "cool" without D&D as the faceman).

That's not the point...the point is...on the ouside world RPG does NOT mean D&D. RPG means Final-Fantasy. Your average outsider HAS no fucking clue what this D&D thing is about.

However, you mention the name Dungeons & Dragons. They recognize the name, but it means some math game that NERDY losers play.

QuoteHowever, D&D still does serve as the entry point at a rate 4x higher than everyone else combined. That's a pretty significant number.

And where do you get that D&D is the entry point for 4x more players combined? Where's your data coming from?

My Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

Quote from: BalbinusKrakajak is actually arguing an entirely separate point, whether the industry would survive DnD's demise, I think the answer to that is also yes though it's less clear cut.

No...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

Here's another proposition, what if D&D falls again to the wayside with 4E? Not dead at all, but White-Wolf or Green-Ronin (or some other possibility) takes majority marketshare with a new game people are digging? The Industry wouldn't be losing any customer base at all. Once you've bought the game...you are no longer in the Market for it, but if it's a good game you'll tell your friends, and they'll tell their friends. The industry survives on new blood and new adopters, The game that get's them can be D&D as easily as a copy of TOON they found in a bargain bin.

As long as there are good games put out there to be played...the industry will thrive because the gamestores will have sales.

Quote from: KrakaJakMy Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

Really? You know the regional sales of Borders for what I'm assuming is the Southwest? Care to share? Ohhhh..it's shelf space.  That's different.

Because, if you are going by shelf space, I can share the same level of anecdotal evidence from here in Illinois - where every Border's around me (and there are...hmmm...5...within 30 minutes drive, I think) are completely and utterly dominated by D&D books.  Shelves upon shelves of them.

In fact, there's a local hobby store that carries a little Warhammer and a little D&D - couldnt find the book I wanted there, had to go to Borders (the gaming store was - can you believe it - closed because they had all gone to GenCon, fuckwits). Borders had multiple copies of all of the books I was looking for. There were a few....hmmm...I think there were one or two Vampire books, and a couple of others I can't recall.
 

Quote from: KrakaJakNo...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

Really?  It's not? On what do you base this assertion - shelf space at your borders in California? How big of a gorilla do you think I, a person, make it out to be?  Do you think I think it's more than 80% of the market? You'd be wrong. That's an absurd claim on so many points - not the least of which is that D&D is a huge fucking gorllia - it might be as large as all of the others combined.

Tell you what, KJ - go look at the numbers in this thread (thanks to Koltar).

Debate the meaning all you want - but these are actual figures from actual stores.

And as far as I can tell, If D&D disappeared tomorrow, so would 60% of the market.  How much would come back?  How much would shift to other games?

Interesting questions, and being discussed in other threads.

If you're hole point was to say the D&D =/= Industry - I'm not sure anyone would argue that.  But they sure are a big fucking hunk of it.

Quote from: KrakaJakThat's not the point...the point is...on the ouside world RPG does NOT mean D&D. RPG means Final-Fantasy. Your average outsider HAS no fucking clue what this D&D thing is about.

However, you mention the name Dungeons & Dragons. They recognize the name, but it means some math game that NERDY losers play.

Yeah, but given that the activity itself is rather nerdy, does it make more sense to:

A) Have name recognition that will cause people who like nerdy activities to seek it out.

OR

B) Have no name recognition at all, so that people who like nerdy activities don't know it exists.

I'm arguing for option A as the better situation.  Are you arguing for option B? Or for some mythical option C where the hobby gets "cool" name recognition somehow (despite still being a nerdy hobby)?

Quote from: KrakaJakAnd where do you get that D&D is the entry point for 4x more players combined? Where's your data coming from?

I'm pretty sure that came from one of the various things Dancey said.  You'll have to check with my editor, though, to see who did the fact-checking.  :rolleyes:

Quote from: KrakaJakMy Data comes from Shelf Space, not just at FLGSs but my regional sales at Borders (Southern California, Arizona + a few other states), a store I work at which is an international chain. Our shelf space is deligated by actual sales, by publisher. Wizards is at a little less then 1/2 the TOTAL shelfspace given to RPG's (which have now merged into Sci-Fi/Fantasy as an Internal Zone, which has caused many bokstores to mis-shelve them grrr. /rant). My FLGS's pretty much mirror Borders sales in RPG's, but they both really survive on Warhammer 40k more than any other product.

So, in one region of the US, WotC still gets "a little less than half" of the shelf space?  Let's say I agree to extrapolate your numbers to the national level, despite it being completely contrary to everyone else's numbers (like C&GRM, for example).

Something like 48% of the industry is still pretty big.  And the industry certainly couldn't survive a 48% loss any more than they could a 60% loss.

Quote from: KrakaJakNo...my point is D&D isn't as big a fucking gorilla as people make it out to be. I think many people on this board (like Mr. jgants,) are mistaking the forest for one of the large trees in it.

I'm saying 60%, you're saying 48%.  That's not really that big of difference.  It's still a big gorilla either way.

Quote from: KrakaJakHere's another proposition, what if D&D falls again to the wayside with 4E? Not dead at all, but White-Wolf or Green-Ronin (or some other possibility) takes majority marketshare with a new game people are digging? The Industry wouldn't be losing any customer base at all. Once you've bought the game...you are no longer in the Market for it, but if it's a good game you'll tell your friends, and they'll tell their friends. The industry survives on new blood and new adopters, The game that get's them can be D&D as easily as a copy of TOON they found in a bargain bin.

As long as there are good games put out there to be played...the industry will thrive because the gamestores will have sales.

Yes, if that happened then everything would work out great.  The problem is that to date no single game has ever even come close to being that popular.

I think what you're proposing would require a very dedicated group of individual, with a significant investment (it would need serious marketing efforts like we haven't seen since the 80's), and a good degree of luck, to hit on something that would suddenly attract a majority of new and existing role-players and be able to fend off competition.