Quote from: jhkimEh?  As far as I know, no distributors or gaming stores depend on RPGs for the majority of their sales.  Miniatures, trading card games, and others are more at the core of their businesses.  They'd take a hit from the loss of official D&D products, but RPGs are just a small fraction of their base.

I was talking about the RPG segment of their business.  D&D is the core of the RPG segment.  Without D&D sales to make that segment worthwhile, it would make more sense for distributors and gaming stores to simply abandon RPGs all together and focus exclusively on the miniatures, CCGs, etc.

See, businesses like having lower risk products mixed in with the higher risk products.  D&D is pretty much as low risk as it gets for RPGs.  Selling a bunch of D&D stuff means they can afford to take risks by ordering other, less-popular stuff, like GURPS or whatever.  Without D&D to keep the risk low, they are far more likely just to go "meh, let's not even bother" when it comes to ordering other RPGs.

Quote from: jhkimI don't see what that proves.  Yes, it seems like the goth role-playing market that has been the core for White Wolf is only roughly half as big as the fantasy geek market that's at the core of D&D.  However, that doesn't say anything about how nearly-identical D20/OGL stuff will sell to that same core audience in the absence of official D&D material.

Well that's pretty easy to guesstimate.  Without a strong, "official" source, the market will fracture to the point where no one has quite enough customers to be profitable (the "balkanization" effect that others mentioned previously).  D&D is the apple pie of the industry - something that enough people can agree on (even if it isn't their personal first choice) to create the necessary network externalities for the industry.

Then there's the fact that without D&D, many customers or future potential customers won't even bother to search out for a D20/OGL replacement.  D&D has name recognition.  D&D has marketing efforts.  No OGL product has that.

And don't forget - there were quite a lot of players who had stopped playing AD&D.  They didn't move to new games, they just stopping playing RPGs all together.  What brought a lot of them back?  D&D 3.0.

Quote from: jhkimTSR may have been on its deathbed in the mid-90s in terms of finances, but it was still publishing a big pile of products -- which isn't the same thing as D&D going away.

The point here was that TSR was incredibly weak and vulnerable at that point - and yet was still managed to maintain its market share in the face of a rapidly expanding, strong competitor.  That says something about how the market works; specifically, how mobile the customer base is (or in this case, isn't).

Quote from: grubmanThat actually proves the point.  A book that has technically been in print since the beginning of our hobby holds a spot in the top 10.  Lots of new games have a time in the spotlight, and then fade away...while D&D products continue to sell at an impressive rate untill they go out of print for a new edition.

Anyone got any stats on relative sales of different editions of D&D?

THe notion that an OGL product could compete with or replace D&D itself is pretty endemic of the kind of egotism and self-delusion that is rampant in the D20 aftermarket.  

Contrary to popular belief, by and large the secondary market for D20/OGL products is no bigger than the rest of the second tier.  Sure Mongoose managed to push their way up there by shotgun effect, but look at all the other companies that went belly up convinced that just slapping the D20 logo on something would automatically mean D&D-level sales.  

It ain't happening.  Any OGL replacement would lack the official stamp, which is itself a death mark, but more than that, it would lack the creative and financial resources Wizards has at its disposal.

If 4th ed AD&D went belly up, presumably Wizards/Hasbro would sell the name off? I suspect there would be another game going by the name D&D sooner or later, its too big a brand to lose.

Quote from: KrakaJakHowever...D&D did suck ass, and many of the players fled to different games, or went back to playing their old books and new players in the hobby started on Vampire or RIFTS.

And D&D was still the most popular RPG in the world by a country mile.

QuoteWhen White-Wolf was the top publisher in the business (because TSR/D&D had dropped the ball), the business was as healthy as it always was.

As Abyssal Maw said, WW has never been the top publisher in the business for any sustained period of time; certainly, no longer than a single fiscal quarter.  It's pretty much always been TSR/Wizards first and everybody else a distant second.

That said, I agree that the industry was much healthier during WW's zenith than it is today.  I think seeing the industry today as healthy is a bit blinkered... just as blinkered as claiming that the industry doesn't need D&D.

QuoteThat's also kinda my point. D&D leaving would not actually leave a void. People would move on and play new/different things. People would still be playing RPG's and as long as people get invited to games, they will continue to attract new players.

If D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition.  There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it.  This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it.  In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced.  That's a void.

KoOS

Quote from: J ArcaneAny OGL replacement would lack the official stamp, which is itself a death mark, but more than that, it would lack the creative and financial resources Wizards has at its disposal.

Official stamp, yes.  Financial resources, yes.  Creative resources, no.  The creatives would just find their way to other games and companies, just like the current creatives at Wizards came from other games and companies.

But yeah, I think people vastly underestimate both the power of the D&D brand and the impact of Hasbro's financial muscle.

KoOS

Quote from: King of Old SchoolOfficial stamp, yes.  Financial resources, yes.  Creative resources, no.  The creatives would just find their way to other games and companies, just like the current creatives at Wizards came from other games and companies.

But yeah, I think people vastly underestimate both the power of the D&D brand and the impact of Hasbro's financial muscle.

KoOS

There's not a single company out there that can afford to keep the kind of on-staff creative team that Wizards can.  Not a one.  

Sure those staff once vacated could probably go off and do some freelance work for the remaining companies, but they're far more likely to go for other, non-RPGs, where they can continue making a decent living, like moving to video games as so many RPG writers have done already.  

You can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

Quote from: King of Old SchoolIf D&D left, the industry would lose its biggest brand and biggest point of name recognition.  There's a reason that "RPG" and "D&D" are synonymous terms for many, many people inside the hobby and virtually everyone outside it.  This single biggest entry point to the hobby would be gone, and I very much doubt that anything at all could attain the mindshare necessary to replace it.  In a very short time, the player base would be significantly reduced.  That's a void.

I don't think anyone's disagreeing with that significantly.  The player base would most certainly be reduced, perhaps by 50% if nothing else takes up the slack.  The question is what effect this would have on other RPGs.  

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

Outside of the RPG field, I don't find that staff writers are necessarily better than signed authors.  Outside of some ghost-written series, most novels come from freelancers, for example.  Within RPGs, I find that many (though not all) of my favorite works come from freelance or independent authors -- and a bunch I'm not sure about.

Novels aren't game designs.  

Novels also pay better, even for freelancers.

RPGs aren't really books, they're games, in terms of what it takes to do one professionally and produce a qulity product on the level of D&D 3e, for example.

If you want a better comparison, try lining up a video game from a triple-A development house next to some guy's shareware game that he made in his spare time.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

A significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

Quote from: J ArcaneNovels aren't game designs.  

Novels also pay better, even for freelancers.

RPGs aren't really books, they're games, in terms of what it takes to do one professionally and produce a qulity product on the level of D&D 3e, for example.

If you want a better comparison, try lining up a video game from a triple-A development house next to some guy's shareware game that he made in his spare time.

Novels don't pay shit.

Quote from: AosNovels don't pay shit.

And RPGs pay even less.

Quote from: J ArcaneYou can't expect the same level of dedication and quality for a freelancer who's just doing this RPG gig in his free time, as you can from a real, paid, regular employee.

In my world you can.  I don't find the quality of Wizards stuff any better than a wide range of RPG products from the middle-sized (SJGames, Pinnacle, Evil Hat, KenzerCo) and individual producers and many of them rely on freelancers or are doing it on the side.

Quote from: jgantsSee, businesses like having lower risk products mixed in with the higher risk products.  D&D is pretty much as low risk as it gets for RPGs.  Selling a bunch of D&D stuff means they can afford to take risks by ordering other, less-popular stuff, like GURPS or whatever.  Without D&D to keep the risk low, they are far more likely just to go "meh, let's not even bother" when it comes to ordering other RPGs.

That's a good point, but your later analysis suggests that demand for rpg products is driven by supply.  Don't you think the demand will continue to be there, although to a lesser degree, and the potential for demand, to the same degree, as well?  There will be a vacuum in the market and in the medium to long-term someone could move in to start filling it.  

I'm just saying that I agree with your initial prognostication, but after time, if game stores stay open selling CCGs, minis, etc. I could see RPGs coming back in some new form.  The D&D brand is massive, it's true.  But I think that the practice of RPGs will exist without it and eventually the market will reflect that.

Quote from: GunslingerA significant portion of what WOTC puts out is by freelance authors.  Eberron is a good example of this.  I think it's a good thing to have a vast amount of perspectives contributing to what D&D is.  Possibly cheaper than a full time employees too (I guess).  Also, freelancing is a great testing ground for companies to find full time employees.  I know of at least one friend that is working on turning his freelance status into a full time gig.

Sourcebooks, sure, there's freelancers.  And look how awful some of the sourcebooks have been.  And how much of the focus has been lost.  

If you want to produce a game as tightly woven, intricate, and interrelated, as what you find in the D&D corebooks, you need a dedicated development team, working together.  

You're not gonna get that from a gaggle of random freelancers you managed to feed enough money to buy a weeks worth of ramen packets.