Quote5:25 PM: Trask 1.5 million players. 24 million lapsed players

Read more: http://www.livingdice.com/3690/wizards-of-the-coast-gts-2010-seminar/#ixzz0yVoSwIWO

WOW. That is true! 75% Drop compared to the 3rd ed estimation!

Quote from: Benoist;402830WOW. That is true! 75% Drop compared to the 3rd ed estimation!

If the 3rd Edition estimate was at all accurate. Furthermore, if it is accurate, we don't know if the drop off in players is do to the rise in prevalence of MMORPG's during that time or if it's because 4E is unanimously regarded by all but a small enclave of slavishly devoted fans as "teh suxxorz".

Truth is, that no one really knows how D&D 4th Edition is doing except for WotC...and they aren't showing us the numbers.

Quote from: Benoist;40283075% Drop compared to the 3rd ed estimation!

75% loss is no surprise.  

I saw many groups vaporize when WoW hit the scene [it butchered the RPG scene at cons] and now C&C and Pathfinder offer previous edition players a continuing line of FLGS products.   And products that are equally glossy in the case of Paizo.

WotC never adjusted to compete with MMOs and then the moronic OGL bit them in the ass.

Quote from: Spinachcat;40283575% loss is no surprise.  

I saw many groups vaporize when WoW hit the scene [it butchered the RPG scene at cons] and now C&C and Pathfinder offer previous edition players a continuing line of FLGS products.   And products that are equally glossy in the case of Paizo.

WotC never adjusted to compete with MMOs and then the moronic OGL bit them in the ass.

Quite a number of 1E AD&D players I knew back in the day, are now heavily addicted WoW players.  About a decade ago or so, they were heavily addicted Diablo or EverQuest players.  

During the 1990's, quite a number of these same individuals were heavily addicted to Doom and Quake.

None of them have played any tabletop pen-and-paper rpgs in more than a decade or two.

Quote from: Spinachcat;40283575% loss is no surprise.

WotC CANNOT be happy with these numbers. At all.

Also, I don't think WoW can be blamed in this instance, since the 6 Million players estimation is from 2007 (Svensson; Dungeons & Dragons reborn, from the Buffalo News, as far as I can tell). No. The difference is clearly 4th edition D&D, with, as you said, a splintering of the D&D audience as a result.

Quote from: Shazbot79;402834If the 3rd Edition estimate was at all accurate.

Granted.

So if the Buffalo News got its numbers from WotC (I seem to remember that's where the estimation comes from in the end, but someone would have to confirm), somehow WotC would have overblown the D&D population in 2007, but now would give an accurate, or underestimated number? I somehow don't think the tools for estimation have improved that much in three years.

Wonder if TSR had any hard numbers on the number of D&D players back in the 1990's and earlier.

Quote from: Shazbot79;402829Frank Trollman may not be the most pleasant guy around, but he doesn't just make shit up.

Make stuff up wholesale? No. Misinterpret or creatively interpret stuff? That I'd buy.

Seanchai

OK. More about this. Someone on RPGnet linked me to the original Buffalo News article, which I quote here for fear it disappears:

Quote from: Buffalo NewsDungeons & Dragons reborn
The role-playing legend faces the future by borrowing from its offspring, the online game
By Peter Svensson - ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated: 07/21/08 10:53 AM

It must be tough to be 34 and already see your children overshadow you. That’s what’s happened to “Dungeons & Dragons,” the role-playing game that for decades has drawn geeks to roll dice and pretend to be elves, sorcerers and other fantasy heroes. It has never quite become mainstream entertainment, but it has inspired role-playing computer games like “World of Warcraft” to borrow its principles and turn them into a multibillion-dollar industry.

Now, “D&D” is borrowing from its imitators. The newest edition of the game, which came out in June, has for the first time paired with online features that the publisher hopes will lure lapsed players back to the dungeon.

“That group that broke up in 1987 because you all graduated from high school and went to schools across the country? Well, you can get that old teenage group back together,” said Scott Rouse, brand manager for “D&D” at Wizards of the Coast. The Hasbro Inc. subsidiary publishes the game.

Role-players have always faced the difficulty of getting together regularly, especially since the games are lengthy. But they talk warmly about the camaraderie fostered by the games, since the players cooperate rather than compete. Though guided by thick rulebooks, the games have an element of theater, with players using the voices of their characters. Not surprisingly, they’re considered uncool by those who lack an appreciation of fantasy.

The new edition, the fourth since “D&D” was created in 1974, may do nothing for the game’s social stigma, but at least players now have the option to commune online. Each screen shows the same virtual 3-D “tabletop” with monsters and heroes, and the players are able to talk via Internet voice chat.

Wizards is also building its own social networking site as a Facebook or MySpace for gamers. The players will be able to create fantasy characters for themselves with an online tool. That streamlines a process that can take hours and dozens of reference books.

Wizards employees are avid players of online games, and the new initiative springs from that experience, Rouse said. It should make it easier to tuck the kids into bed, then “jump on the computer and delve into dungeons, kill monsters and take their stuff,” as he put it.

“D&D’s” influence on computer games was highlighted recently when the death of Gary Gygax, the game’s co-creator, sparked reminiscences across the computer industry. A senior editor at Wired magazine even hailed Gygax as “architect of the now,” seeing the game as inspiring Internet culture in general, like Gmail accounts and Flickr photo sharing.

Yet Gygax, who had not been involved with the game’s development since the 1980s, told the New York Times in 2006 that he wasn’t much into computer games and preferred the intimacy and imagination of the face-to-face game.

“What tabletop gaming gives to people is a reason to get together with your friends and hang out and do a fun social activity together,” said Chris Pramas, a former Wizards employee and now the president of another game company, Green Ronin Publishing.

Wizards emphasizes that it’s trying to keep the good parts of the tabletop game. It lets players, rather than computers, maintain control of the virtual world. It’s also streamlining the rules of the tabletop game to make it faster to play and more accessible.

“D&D” had about 6 million players worldwide last year, according to a survey by Wizards, though Rouse said the figure may be somewhat inflated. Many of those players probably yield little revenue for the company. The gamers buy books and sometimes miniatures, but only one player in the group needs to own a copy of each book.

Wizards does not reveal sales figures, but Pramas estimates the overall market for traditional role-playing games at $30 million annually.

Meanwhile, the massively multiplayer online (or MMO) game “World of Warcraft” has more than 10 million subscribers, most of them paying. Publisher Blizzard Entertainment, a unit of France’s Vivendi conglomerate, doesn’t say how much the game is earning, but a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests it pulls in more than $1 billion per year. U. S. subscribers pay $14.95 per month.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the online features of fourth-edition “D&D” carry a monthly fee of $14.95, though a one-year contract brings the cost down to $9.95 per month.

The new direction for “D&D” isn’t risk-free. “Dungeons & Dragons Online,” an MMO game like “World of Warcraft,” hasn’t done very well. The game, run by Atari Inc. under a license from Hasbro, has less than 100,000 subscribers, according to various estimates.

The new edition of the printed game has already caused a rift in the “D&D” community. Paizo Publishing, an independent company that publishes popular supplementary books for the game, announced recently that it will not support the new edition. It says the previous edition of “D&D” is a better fit and will even create its own game based on that edition.

Then there’s the risk that the future has passed “D&D” by. Many of the core fans that got hooked in their teens are in their 30s now, and today’s teenagers have a wealth of entertainment options.

“ ‘World of Warcraft’ has become the ‘D&D’ of this generation,” said Pramas, 38. “When I was a kid, if you were any sort of nerd, you played ‘D&D.’ That’s not the case anymore.”

Jack Warecki, a software developer in Shirley, N. Y., is also 38. He used to play “D&D” but has shifted toward MMO games — he plays “Lord of the Rings Online” at the moment.

“In terms of time spent and bang for the buck, MMOs just do it better right now, so I’m just not interested in role-playing,” he said.

All the same, he does find a “great social aspect” to the face-to- face game that’s absent from the computer versions. And yes, he and his high school buddies still get together now and then for a game of “D&D.” He plays a wizard who shoots fireballs.

Bolded emphasis mine. It seems that this count of 6 million D&D players might not only include 3e/3.5, but mix all editions of D&D together. It's not obvious, but possible, and might explain the discrepency between the numbers.

Quote from: Spinachcat;402810The RPG populace is dwindling.  No surprise there.  As I've said before, the only hope for D&D's future is an online game table with worldwide 24/7 gameplay that is user friendly and merges quality graphics with the power of a live DM and small group live player interaction.

You mean like NWN tried to do and succeeded quite well, but didn't break into the mainstream?  It had a live DM client and Neverwinter Connections was quite active, AFAIK.  You'd sign up for a game on the calendar, then join the server on game-day and the DM would run you through the adventure via text and real-time game-play.

Still, there are more people playing PbP and IRC RPGs than there are MMO players, I'd guess.  I'd put money on it.  Most of them are not using a system, however, and usually engage in collaborative storytelling, so most of those communities are shunned by tabletop players who hate fanfic and all that stuff, even though most of the people who roleplay on these forums are normal, everyday people who aren't gamers.  I'm serious.  People don't care because they know they're anonymous online, so it doesn't carry any embarrassment or risk of social labeling.   I have friends who'd never sit down to play D&D who only admitted this to me because they knew I played tabletop RPGs and I wouldn't judge them for it.

So, RPG populace as in guys who buy retail games, yeah.  RPG populace as in people who role-play using no system or homebrew, not so clear.

Quote from: BenoistBolded emphasis mine. It seems that this count of 6 million D&D players might not only include 3e/3.5, but mix all editions of D&D together. It's not obvious, but possible, and might explain the discrepency between the numbers.

Well, we don't know what WotC means by "players" and "lapsed players" either. Also, we don't know if their sampling methods are over or under counting. We could seriously suggest alternative versions of interpretations around and around in a circle until we are blue in the face.

Literally all we know is that a bit over a year before 4e dropped, the official word through official channels was that WotC's estimate of their audience was six million people, and nearly 2 years after 4e went up, the official word through official channels was that WotC's estimate of their audience was 1.5 million people. We can speculate as to the hows and whys but the truth is we don't know and won't ever know. But we are confronted with the fact that WotC's public estimate of how many D&D players are left dropped by three quarters in three years. And you know that the biggest single event in that period by a substantial amount was 4e. I mean sure, Elder Evils was a crappy book, but it didn't make 75% of the player base quit.

To say that 4e was anything other than a terrifying and colossal failure is grossly irresponsible. The statistics we have been given by WotC are woefully incomplete, but the picture they present is extremely grim for D&D and by extension the hobby as a whole. We literally can't maintain the rate of collapse, because at the presented rate of player hemorrhage there would be no players left in a year. WotC has to turn things around. Which means that they need change. Change of leadership, change of mechanics, change of presentation, change of rules, change of everything.

I hope that Essentials is enough change to salvage things. But from what I've seen, it isn't. It's a substantial set of changes mind, it's a complete replacement of how things on the player side work and a whole new paradigm of monster numbers. But most of the writers are the same, and most of the "feel" is pretty similar. There's a lot of change, but none of it addresses the methodologies that I believe put them in this situation. That makes me sad.

To put this in perspective: Magic the Gathering also had six million players back in 2003. But in the years since then, they've grown that audience. This year, Hasbro announced that M:tG had had its most successful year ever. It's not like WotC does not have the expertise required to grow their fantasy gaming franchises, it's just that that expertise apparently does not exist in their D&D department.

-Frank

Quote from: Spinachcat;402810As I've said before, the only hope for D&D's future is an online game table with worldwide 24/7 gameplay that is user friendly and merges quality graphics with the power of a live DM and small group live player interaction.

I have no doubt that would shock the MMO world.   It wouldn't takeover WoW, but it would easily get a 1M+ online players and probably more.

Absolutely.  Right now we have a handful of small-funded, labor-of-love Virtual Tabletop Programs out there.  Why aren't they more popular?  You need to be a programmer to houserule anything (or at least be versed in xml).

WoW is so big, so much a part of everyone's lives (if you never played it, you know someone who does/has), that people aren't looking for the next WoW, they are looking for the next thing that isn't WoW.  That thing very well could be online D&D.  

Have a VTT that looks like a modern NWN and simplify the building process so you don't have to have more then average geek-level tech skills to run the damn thing.

Every lapsed player I know personally or have ever asked would jump on a VTT solution in a heartbeat if they could get a regular group for a few hours a week or even month.

D&D requires a much more significant time investment than Magic or video-games.  Most people I know who are video-gamers/Magic players don't play D&D for two reasons:

A) They don't like the idea of roleplaying, or feel embarassed by it
B) They don't want to invest the time to learn or play RPGs

People lead increasingly busy lives and there are tons of distractions out there that are easier to get into.  And with other popular tabletop games, your typical "go" is 45 minutes to an hour and a half, max.  Even making RPGs digital isn't going to easily solve this problem without fundamentally changing the experience of role-playing into something else.  Encounters is a nice idea, but I haven't had a chance to sit down for one, yet, nor do I know if they provide the variety of play necessary to keep new players hooked for the long-term.

The things that I have seen frustrate new players (to tabletop games in general, or just D&D) are combat length and information overload.  Combat length gets exponentially longer the less mastery you have, and there aren't many "simple" options for people who aren't used to minis games or RPGs.  Information overload is also part of the problem with combat, but I've seen it frustrate players and I've almost had people give up during chargen.

'Dissociated' mechanics and all of that are the realm of older players and I have not seen any indication that it's a turn off to new players.  They just don't care.

Of course, if Essentials can help ease newer players into the system, and reconcile some things previous players didn't like, then that's gravy, and I really hope it works out.

Well, I don't believe in any of the estimates. If you watch the Gygax on 60 Minutes interview, they boasted of 3.5 million at the height of AD&D's popularity.

I do know that there's plenty of 4e where I live and literally everywhere I have traveled. I know that I have seen the worst of human behavior in the haters, and I know some people have a desperate desire to spread as much fear, uncertainty and doubt as they can in order to "stop" D&D.

And that's been true forever. I mean, it was true in the 3e days as well. I don't get the industry obsession, really. 4E is ruling now, and it will continue to rule. The fact that it changed enough to cause a split basically made Paizo the second largest RPG company in the entire world. It's like D&D rules twice. I've got more gaming opportunities (and really that's the only standard I can measure any of this stupidity by, in the end) than I have had since AD&D1e. More than even then, really.

There's no such thing as turning the clocks backward. It's never going to be 1980 again. Never ever.

Quote from: CRKrueger;402907Absolutely.  Right now we have a handful of small-funded, labor-of-love Virtual Tabletop Programs out there.  Why aren't they more popular?  You need to be a programmer to houserule anything (or at least be versed in xml).

WoW is so big, so much a part of everyone's lives (if you never played it, you know someone who does/has), that people aren't looking for the next WoW, they are looking for the next thing that isn't WoW.  That thing very well could be online D&D.  

Have a VTT that looks like a modern NWN and simplify the building process so you don't have to have more then average geek-level tech skills to run the damn thing.

Every lapsed player I know personally or have ever asked would jump on a VTT solution in a heartbeat if they could get a regular group for a few hours a week or even month.

Two things:

1) I get the feeling WoW is smaller than ever. I think many of the latest changes are specifically geared to trying to shore up a disppearing player base.

2) With VTT's, XML aint the issue. It's setting up a Virtual network. You have to either be ready to use Hamachi or log into your router and do a lot of fairly complex operations to make your DNS static.