Anecdotal evidence suggests that Pathfinder has been outselling D&D over the past year. Presumably, D&D Next will take back the #1 spot when it is released but what will happen in the medium- to long-term? Will Pathfinder players migrate to D&D Next, leaving Pathfinder on the glide-path to the status of "once popular but no longer a serious contender"? Or will Paizo put up a fight, maybe release a second edition in an attempt to continue giving Wizards a run for their money?

Quote from: Dodger;526815Anecdotal evidence suggests that Pathfinder has been outselling D&D over the past year. Presumably, D&D Next will take back the #1 spot when it is released but what will happen in the medium- to long-term? Will Pathfinder players migrate to D&D Next, leaving Pathfinder on the glide-path to the status of "once popular but no longer a serious contender"? Or will Paizo put up a fight, maybe release a second edition in an attempt to continue giving Wizards a run for their money?

I think Pathfinder will drop a bit.  It won't go away, but it will drop as part of their following goes to 5e.  I know this is largely anecdotal, but I've heard a lot of people who say they don't like 4e is because they like some randomization in their games (like hit points) and don't like being forced to spend 95% of your time maneuvering your mini on a battlemap.

And despite what you might think after listening to the 4venger crowd cry and whine, I'm sure a lot of 4e players will move on to 5e because it's the newest edition and might (GASP!) even be a more fun edition to play than 4e was for them.  If you believe what you hear on the internet forums, the 4e players all refuse to even look at 5e and will protest it.  I suspect the reality is that most 4e fans (really, fans of any edition) aren't that emotionally invested and will want to try out a new game.

The current edition of D&D will always be popular, and if they can increase their gamer base by allowing players of previous editions to play how they want to play rather than be forced to play a certain way they don't like, they will be #1 again.

Hard to say since D&D Next isn't developed enough yet to know how many people like it.

PF would be doing their players a disservice if they released a 2nd ed just to get new core books to the market. A new edition of a system should be desired by the player base before going into development.

Pathfinder is considered evergreen by a lot of people because it is based on the OGL. That alone is enough to win over those who have decided to get off of the edition treadmill.

I'm hoping for a PF 2 myself, not to play, but just for the lulz.

Quote from: Dodger;526815Anecdotal evidence suggests that Pathfinder has been outselling D&D over the past year. Presumably, D&D Next will take back the #1 spot when it is released but what will happen in the medium- to long-term? Will Pathfinder players migrate to D&D Next, leaving Pathfinder on the glide-path to the status of "once popular but no longer a serious contender"? Or will Paizo put up a fight, maybe release a second edition in an attempt to continue giving Wizards a run for their money?

Well as an actual person of the group you're talking about Pathfinder will be fine because their focus are Adventure Paths and other peripherals, the core rpg books are incidental to their success. Heck, the reason I got into the game is for the anti treadmill model they employ.

Personally I'll get 5e right along with Pathfinder if it proves to be a fun and solid game that allows me to do like I do with Fantasy Craft but with the support and playerbase network Dnd has just because it's Dnd.

5e has far more problems than the 4e launch.  

The ludicrous promise that 5e will appeal to all edition fans is going to evaporate once the public playtest arrives, regardless if 5e is a good game or not.

The OSR and Pathfinder have developed from just an edition fanbase to a community focused on their own game. It is only a matter of time before 4e gets its own retroclone and thus its own community.

So who is the potential fanbase of 5e?

Certainly not 1e/2e fans. Castles & Crusades is essentially AD&D 2.5, but that was viewed as way too much heresy for the OSR. There is no way that 5e is going to be more OSR orthodox than C&C.

Certainly not 3e fans. They have Pathfinder. There is no way that 5e can "out-3e" and give 3e fans more of what they enjoy than Pathfinder.

Certainly not 4e fans. WotC is counting on RPGA and organized play to transition players into 5e. This may work, but just as many 3e fans stayed with 3e in 2008, its logical than most 4e fans will stick with 4e, especially when 3PP publishers reach out to them.

As much as I don't like Pathfinder, Paizo is a smart company which has done a great job appealing to the needs of their customers. I am quite sure they are not going to simply let WotC stop their momentum.

So 5e has to appeal to people unattached to any edition and those who simply play the current D&D.

Not a great mid-term situation.

Quote from: Dodger;526815Anecdotal evidence suggests that Pathfinder has been outselling D&D over the past year. Presumably, D&D Next will take back the #1 spot when it is released but what will happen in the medium- to long-term? Will Pathfinder players migrate to D&D Next, leaving Pathfinder on the glide-path to the status of "once popular but no longer a serious contender"? Or will Paizo put up a fight, maybe release a second edition in an attempt to continue giving Wizards a run for their money?

Impossible to tell right now. It'll really depend on the details of how the D&D Next game comes together and what lasting effect it has on its future fandom, which will shape its legacy from there, and how that compares to Pathfinder's (3.X) niche from there.

I'll say this though: WotC would do well to think seriously of the way its game compares to the 3.X experience, and emphasize what's different about it in a good light. I'm thinking of things like quick character gen, intuitive, organic character development instead of planning your levels in advance to get the PrC you want, good monster stat blocks you can use easily at the game table, and so on.

4e failed in this in part because it assumed the use of the online tools, so it kept adding errata and options and classes and paragon paths and all that shit on top of each other, thereby making it a very complex game to manage if you did NOT use the online tools, or if some of your players did use them while others did not, turning the whole "balance" (lul) thing into a logical nightmare from there.

There are lessons to learn here and opportunities to seize. Whether WotC has the balls to cut to umbilical cord on its past failures remains to be seen.

Quote from: Spinachcat;5268575e has far more problems than the 4e launch.  

The ludicrous promise that 5e will appeal to all edition fans is going to evaporate once the public playtest arrives, regardless if 5e is a good game or not.

The OSR and Pathfinder have developed from just an edition fanbase to a community focused on their own game. It is only a matter of time before 4e gets its own retroclone and thus its own community.

So who is the potential fanbase of 5e?

Certainly not 1e/2e fans. Castles & Crusades is essentially AD&D 2.5, but that was viewed as way too much heresy for the OSR. There is no way that 5e is going to be more OSR orthodox than C&C.

Certainly not 3e fans. They have Pathfinder. There is no way that 5e can "out-3e" and give 3e fans more of what they enjoy than Pathfinder.

Certainly not 4e fans. WotC is counting on RPGA and organized play to transition players into 5e. This may work, but just as many 3e fans stayed with 3e in 2008, its logical than most 4e fans will stick with 4e, especially when 3PP publishers reach out to them.

As much as I don't like Pathfinder, Paizo is a smart company which has done a great job appealing to the needs of their customers. I am quite sure they are not going to simply let WotC stop their momentum.

So 5e has to appeal to people unattached to any edition and those who simply play the current D&D.

Not a great mid-term situation.

5e seems to have made you much more bitter than ever before.

Quote from: Mistwell;5268715e seems to have made you much more bitter than ever before.

I don't know his/her previous history beyond today and yesterday but he/she seems straightforward for a 4e fan. But he/she doesn't seem for real bitter to me beyond the obvious 4venger hyperbole and view that if it's not 4e it's wrong shtick.

Quote from: Marleycat;526880I don't know his/her previous history beyond today and yesterday but he/she seems straightforward for a 4e fan. But he/she doesn't seem for real bitter to me beyond the obvious 4venger hyperbole and view that if it's not 4e it's wrong shtick.

Yeah, that's an argument I never really understood because it was the same argument that was made when 3e was announced, and the same when 4e was announced.  I.e., "They're screwing their existing customers who like the current edition out now and therefore will stick with it, so who are they tying to bring in?"

Well, plenty of people played 3e.  And plenty of people play 4e.  Just like there will be plenty of people who will play 5e.

Quote from: Acta Est Fabula;526886Well, plenty of people played 3e.  And plenty of people play 4e.  Just like there will be plenty of people who will play 5e.

This.  Seriously I'm confused why 4e players are acting so butthurt over a simple edition change.  Heck, Wotc is even using kid gloves for once.

Quote from: Acta Est Fabula;526886Well, plenty of people played 3e.  And plenty of people play 4e.  Just like there will be plenty of people who will play 5e.

The difference being that 3e was probably the most played game in the hobby at its peak. 4e, not so much. If the trend continues with 5e I don't see that Spin's claims are really that preposterous.  I also don't think he's bitter, Calling him that is a cop out,  from a known WoTC fanboy.

Quote from: Marleycat;526905This.  Seriously I'm confused why 4e players are acting so butthurt over a simple edition change.  Heck, Wotc is even using kid gloves for once.

Take a look at this forum back when 4e was announced there was every bit as much asspain then.

Quote from: Spinachcat;5268575e has far more problems than the 4e launch.  

The ludicrous promise that 5e will appeal to all edition fans is going to evaporate once the public playtest arrives, regardless if 5e is a good game or not.

The OSR and Pathfinder have developed from just an edition fanbase to a community focused on their own game. It is only a matter of time before 4e gets its own retroclone and thus its own community.

So who is the potential fanbase of 5e?

Certainly not 1e/2e fans. Castles & Crusades is essentially AD&D 2.5, but that was viewed as way too much heresy for the OSR. There is no way that 5e is going to be more OSR orthodox than C&C.

Certainly not 3e fans. They have Pathfinder. There is no way that 5e can "out-3e" and give 3e fans more of what they enjoy than Pathfinder.

Certainly not 4e fans. WotC is counting on RPGA and organized play to transition players into 5e. This may work, but just as many 3e fans stayed with 3e in 2008, its logical than most 4e fans will stick with 4e, especially when 3PP publishers reach out to them.

As much as I don't like Pathfinder, Paizo is a smart company which has done a great job appealing to the needs of their customers. I am quite sure they are not going to simply let WotC stop their momentum.

So 5e has to appeal to people unattached to any edition and those who simply play the current D&D.

Not a great mid-term situation.

I am a 5e fan. I want a gridless, currently supported, official Dungeons and Dragons. 5e is for me.