Quote from: TrevelyanWhich rumour mill is that? Outside of TheRPGsite public opinions seems to be growing increasingly positive.

You made this claim before.  I think it's more fair to say opinions remain "mixed" on all blogs and gaming forums, and nobody has a good sense for how people not discussing gaming online will respond.

Quote from: StuartYou made this claim before.  I think it's more fair to say opinions remain "mixed" on all blogs and gaming forums, and nobody has a good sense for how people not discussing gaming online will respond.

I'll grant you that it's still IMO, but you can chart the changes in attitude from polls in places like RPGnet and ENworld. I could also point to a number of previously vocal naysayers on those and other sites who have openly recanted in recent weeks, especailly since we've been getting the 3/week spoilers from WotC.

But even if that's not a fiar overview, the comment that the rumour mill has been turning against 4E recently seems even less well supported.

I was looking for reviews of 4e -- there are links to download the books everywhere.  Kinda surprising.

Quote from: EngineAs an example of what happens when the power to distribute information leaves the hands of the expensive few and enters the hands of the everyone everywhere, look to the written word - and then the machine-printed word - for precedent.

We are talking about the written word - RPG books.  The question isn't who has the power to distribute information. The question is should people who invest money and labour into a creative endeavour be paid for their efforts commensurate with its actual market. If users don't pay, professionals will stop producing and you're left with only amateur content. For my part, I appreciate the role that the market plays in winnowing out shitty products; I don't want all of my books/movies/software/games produced by amateurs who have day jobs.

Quote from: TrevelyanBut even if that's not a fiar overview, the comment that the rumour mill has been turning against 4E recently seems even less well supported.

I don't think it's been turning against 4e recently.  I think most people made up their minds months ago.  I figured anyone who was really "undecided" would cave and buy the books, because they're shiny and new, and who doesn't like a new toy?

Personally, I haven't seen anything "new" with 4e in a while that would make me change my mind about it one way or another. Even with the books now available, I'm not seeing any surprises -- it's all stuff we've know about for a while.

Wait -- that's not true.  The PDFs being available everywhere before the launch is a surprise.  I figured they'd show up after the books had been out for a while.

Quote from: HaffrungIt's only hypocritical if the folks who condemn IP theft engage in theft themselves.

Which is exactly what I'm suggesting. IP infringement covers such a broad category of behaviors that it's extremely unlikely that anyone hasn't done it to some degree. It could be that they don't realize it or that they feel it's acceptable in certain circumstances, but most likely they've done it.

Quote from: StuartI guess I feel bad for Mearls et al.  

I pretty much agree with everything you've said, for the record.

Quote from: StuartI'm not sure about that.  Maybe "some" but with the PDFs easy to find online, I can't see "many".

I've purchased a few PDFs and find them next to impossible to use on a regular basis. Maybe others can run entire games just with electronic copies but I think there would be quite a few people like me who really, really like the print versions.

I was just suggesting that eventually curiosity or peer pressure (from friends who wanted to play D&D) would convince people to pick up the games. Heck, I eventually broke down and bought Exalted.

Quote from: GoOrangeI've purchased a few PDFs and find them next to impossible to use on a regular basis. Maybe others can run entire games just with electronic copies but I think there would be quite a few people like me who really, really like the print versions.

I had lost my Moldvay/Cook edition D&D books, and had downloaded Basic Fantasy thinking that would be a good replacement.

But I really like have the book...  for me a tabletop game is about getting AWAY from the computer.

So I found replacement books on E-Bay.

(Although now that I think of it, I used the d20srd website more than the 3e rulebooks when I made my character... maybe I like having the books as a GM more than when I'm a player?)

Quote from: StuartI don't think it's been turning against 4e recently.  I think most people made up their minds months ago.  I figured anyone who was really "undecided" would cave and buy the books, because they're shiny and new, and who doesn't like a new toy?

I think that's the basic reason for the overall trends I keep mentioning. Most people picked a side pretty early on, and those who were neutral have generally been caught up in the "new shiny" vibe as we near the publication date. You get a few people switching from pro to anti or vice versa, but in recent months even that is more likely to be an anti to pro switch as the buzz increases, and people with specific concerns see those concerns addressed by the recent spoilers. Someone who is generally pro is less likely to encounter a single "deal breaker" preview than someone who is generally anti is to find a single "wow factor" preview.

Quite why the opposite seems so obviously the case here is an interesting question, but it might be tied to the lack of regular and up-to-date information shared on this forum. If no one is actively sharing the joy then it's less likely that the joy is going to capture new converts.

As for those large sites which don't seem enamoured of 4E, Dragonsfoot is a given (a specialist retro D&D site not in favour of the new edition? Shock!), and the WotC data is somewhat screwed up by the fact that they have a single forum for criticism and complaints (and an average poster age of around 14, alas).

Quote from: StuartI guess it depends on what % of people were eventually going to buy them, but get the PDF instead and call it a day.

I guess I feel bad for Mearls et al.  

That is the pivot upon which the debate turns.

The (x)IAA folks want everyone to believe that every download is a lost sale.  I have read reports that downloading a track or two can actually increase album sales.  And of course, if the recording industry as a whole were to adopt the iTunes/Amazon/Yahoo sales model of one track instead of a whole album, but perhaps a bulk discount for buying the album, they would rake in tonnes of cash.

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, the entertainment industry is on the cusp of a major change in how media is distributed, and in the not too distant future, all these arguments about intellectual propery and pirating may seem like quaint topics along the lines of which buggy whip is the most durable.

Quote from: Trevelyanand people with specific concerns see those concerns addressed by the recent spoilers. Someone who is generally pro is less likely to encounter a single "deal breaker" preview than someone who is generally anti is to find a single "wow factor" preview.

I don't think I quite agree with this part (but the rest about buzz is quite right).  I think this is based on your own perspective.

I think it's equally fair to say "People with specific concerns see those concerns confirmed by the recent spoilers".  I think there have been "wow factor" previews that would move someone from undecided... but I haven't seen any "wow factor" in the past 6 months that would have made anyone who had decided the game wasn't for them change their mind.

Quote from: TrevelyanAs for those large sites which don't seem enamoured of 4E, Dragonsfoot is a given (a specialist retro D&D site not in favour of the new edition? Shock!), and the WotC data is somewhat screwed up by the fact that they have a single forum for criticism and complaints (and an average poster age of around 14, alas).

As people made up their minds you'll see people who are enthusiastic continue to talk about it.  People who decide "not for me" will (probably) put less effort into talking about it and more into talking about other things.

I think there are lots of sites where there is a mixture of opinions.  To an outsider, I'd say this site looks like there's a mix of opinions as well.

Quote from: GoOrangeI've purchased a few PDFs and find them next to impossible to use on a regular basis. Maybe others can run entire games just with electronic copies but I think there would be quite a few people like me who really, really like the print versions.

I don't need the hardcopies. I do my reading on the computer, and don't take the books to the table. If I needed to - and it happens - we keep a computer at the table. I find PDFs with links in the table of contents help a great deal, but search works fine, too, for quick reference.

I have a full set, for instance, of every Shadowrun sourcebook ever printed, in PDF as well as hardcopies, and there are things I prefer about each one. I do believe, if the book were originally intended to be used digitally - and thus featured robust links, for instance, and full OCR - I could do without hardcopies altogether, but particularly for books with which I'm very familiar, thumbing through is still easier.

My default position is that I won't be buying 4E -- I didn't buy 3E or 3.5 and nothing I've seen so far of 4E makes me want to jump back on the train -- but I was planning to spend some time skimming over the books in-store open to the very remote possibility that if I'm pleasantly enough surprised by what I see that I might change my mind and decide to purchase after all. If I download the pdfs that will take the place of the in-store browsing -- I'll either not like what I see in the pdfs (in which case I'm back where I started) or if I do like it and decide I actually want to play this game I'll still purchase actual hardcopies, both because not doing so would be stealing, and because I prefer actual printed books to pdfs. That said, I haven't downloaded them yet, and I'm not particularly tech-savvy (to say the least) so I might decide it's not worth the hassle and just fall back on Plan A (browse the books in-store when they show up there).

Quote from: StuartI think it's equally fair to say "People with specific concerns see those concerns confirmed by the recent spoilers".

Yes, but then someone who has a particular concern which could prove to be a deal breker is not likely to be generally positive about the new edition. Those people would most likely have been on the cautious-anti side anyway, so the spoiler wouldn't alter their position.

QuoteI think there have been "wow factor" previews that would move someone from undecided... but I haven't seen any "wow factor" in the past 6 months that would have made anyone who had decided the game wasn't for them change their mind.

I can't comment on what floats peoples' boats, but I've seen some recent threads on other forums where prominent sceptics (and on places like RPGnet and ENworld there really are only a handful of prominent - i.e. highly vocal -  sceptics) have openly admitted to finally groking something from the new edition (minions and hit points being recent examples) and changing their views accordingly.

QuoteAs people made up their minds you'll see people who are enthusiastic continue to talk about it.  People who decide "not for me" will (probably) put less effort into talking about it and more into talking about other things.

I agree entirely. But this too would result in a trend towards positive acceptance of 4E on forums as only those broadly in favour plus a handful of ardent sceptics continue the discussion. Which is what I'm seeing elsewhere, but what I'm not seeing so much here.

QuoteI think there are lots of sites where there is a mixture of opinions.  To an outsider, I'd say this site looks like there's a mix of opinions as well.

There is always a mix of opinions, but I'm talking about the balance.