The anti-mid-tier agenda of these two guys is obvious. On the other hand there's this staggering fact, observed by Ken Hite, which I keep trudging out on occasions like this:

In the 21st century there has been only one majorly successful RPG that's not either a license or an edition: Exalted.

So, what IS keeping the mid-tier?

(For purpose of my point, "majorly successful" = generates enough $$$ to sustain a game company with several full-time employees and which sells actual books.)

exalted may not be a license or whatever, but it's "what the kids are into" these days, right?  overpowered anime-styled storytelling? :rolleyes:

times and themes and popularity changes.  i feel for the mid-tier folks trying to make it, and admire the small guys who can print what they want.  i feel nothing for the ones who expect to run a gaming company along the lines of a corporate model.  the market just isn't there in those kind of numbers.

Quote from: Pierce InverarityThe anti-mid-tier agenda of these two guys is obvious. On the other hand there's this staggering fact, observed by Ken Hite, which I keep trudging out on occasions like this:

In the 21st century there has been only one majorly successful RPG that's not either a license or an edition: Exalted.

So, what IS keeping the mid-tier?

(For purpose of my point, "majorly successful" = generates enough $$$ to sustain a game company with several full-time employees and which sells actual books.)

There's no agenda, just an observation of what's going on. The fact is that the mid-tier is in trouble, has been in trouble, and looks to remain in trouble for the foreseeable future. The question is, why?

I get a lot of data working at WotC (like, our sales numbers), and I hear stuff from distributors and other publishers. A lot of it is a matter of putting two and two together and figuring out what might be happening.

The thing is, there is so little trust and cooperation in the RPG business that any attempt to get to the truth is doomed from the start. A lot of people have it stuck in their head that D&D is dying, and anything WotC says to contradict that is immediately discounted. A lot of people prefer a comforting truth driven by ideology rather than an analysis that might force them to change how they do things.

So, frankly, it's a little weird to say that my agenda is for X to happen, then to point out that X has happened, and then discount my explanation for why X may have happened because of my agenda.

I didn't cause this, and I have no interest in seeing it continue. Until people open their eyes and address the actual issue, rather than endlessly repeat the same strategies and comforting but false "truths" that got them where they are, things won't change.

Mike, if you read my post, I'm far more interested in discussing what's been keeping the mid-tier from even *trying* to publish successful games. I don't think D&D is dying. I do think WOTC employees have WOTC opinions based on WOTC figures, but that's that as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not interested in pointing fingers, I'm puzzled by the absence of alternatives. Thank god people are no longer willing to collect splatbooks and metaplot stuff, but a Fading Suns-ish game with just two or three high quality core books would be nice to see.

The "other media do it better" argument is ultimately unpersuasive. If combat-oriented computer games drain away RPGers, then why do Fading-Suns-ish games suffer and not D&D, seeing as D&D comes so much closer to the experience offered by these games than Fading Suns?

And comics/graphic novels have been around for the longest time, including the splatbook 90s. Why would they suddenly make inroads into the RPG market when they did not in the collector decade?

Quote from: GMSkarkaFor the particular topic they're discussing, I listen to things said by company owners, distributors, and retail store owners.  They're the ones with the direct knowledge of how sales are actually shaking out.

So, what, the president of Hasbro? You really think Joe Picknose over at the "Android's Dungeon" is going to be more qualified to know the state of the industry than a guy with a senior design position at WoTC?
Or that R. Bumquist Primmadonna, who self-published a PDF that sold 12 copies on the Forge and 2 on RPGnow is a greater expert than Ryan Dancey, just because he owns his own "rpg Company" while Dancey doesn't?


I mean, if you want to argue that either Mearls of Dancey have "hidden agendas", that's at least a feasible argument.  If you want to claim that the accountants at Wizards would be more qualified to judge the state of the industry than the game designers, well, maybe... but to actually suggest that by virtue of working for Wizards of the Coast Mike Mearls knows LESS about the RPG industry, because he doesn't run a vanity press company or run a game store in Hoboken, seems pretty backwards to me.

RPGPundit

Well, Dancey definitely has an agenda, along the lines:
"I told you so!"

And interesingly enough, it holds up pretty well.

But:

New Mid-tier games can only be succesful if enough people get excited about it. And FLGS order and stock them.
There used to be general gaming mags, or at least Polyhedron for that. They´re all gone.
The cancellation of Dragon with it´s ads doesn´t help in that regard. So it´s word of mouth and internet  marketing for all things non-WotC. And via Internet, there´s only so much of a player base that you can reach. That´s why the niche publishers have an easier time.

EDIT: To the gaming gods, if they are reading:

Germany! Put out a fantasy game rules system, that let´s people play in Aventuria! FANPRO Germany is in shambles, and DSA with it. Build a player base for D&D, maybe with a special german rules version suited for Aventuria-like play.
Take away the licence from F&S, and give it to Pegasus.
You won´t regret it.

If you move quickly, you can fill the void left by FANPROs demise. Oh, and anything Planescape sells like hot cakes here.

BTW, that´s also something Dancey said. "He told you so!"
;-)

The stuff I quoted didn't say anything about d20 ruling, rather it was about market fragmentation which if anything creates opportunities for the niche players in the market while stuffing the mid-tier guys.

I think particularly the point about the OGL breaking the old route of leaving D&D for other systems is interesting, and has real implications for the market.

But hey, why discuss it if we can just roll out some canned anti-Dancey jokes?

I dunno... hasn't the mid-tier always been in trouble? Companies rising in a wooshing arc like a Roman candle, sometimes getting their moment in the Sun with a CRACK of sparkly lights (oooh, aaah, say the crowd) before plummetting back down to earth like a mixed metaphor?

Some companies (OK, two) stay up there, like a rocket that turned out to be a bird or something. Others are damp squibs.

Quote from: CaudexI dunno... hasn't the mid-tier always been in trouble?...

That's a good question.  I'd be hardpressed to think of more than a couple of 'mid-tier' companies that have been successful for 15+ years.  

Would Chaosium be considered a mid-tier company?  I guess so, and they seem to be chugging along 'okay' (as well as could be expected, considering their tendency towards self-sabotage).

Iron Crown Enterprises also comes to mind, but they went through a bankruptcy in 1999, and even though they seem to be doing 'okay' now, they certainly aren't what they were 15+ years ago.

:raise:

Off the top of my head:

- SJG seem to be doing fine but seem to rely on card and board games these days: roleplaying isn't their main concern.

- Atlas Games is chugging along perfectly happily, again on an RPG/card game mix.

- Mongoose are using their OGL products to fund their non-OGL stuff like Paranoia and Runequest.

It seems that the secret to being a mid-tier publisher is not to rely solely on non-OGL RPGs. Crank out some OGL supplements or a few good card games to get money and exposure and let them support/promote the RPGs.

Quote from: BalbinusThe stuff I quoted didn't say anything about d20 ruling, rather it was about market fragmentation which if anything creates opportunities for the niche players in the market while stuffing the mid-tier guys.

Which ultimately gets back to the old refrain, only by implication rather than explication.  Why has the market fragmented?  Why are mid-tier games suffering? Because the market plan we announced at the beginning of the decade has come to fruition.

QuoteI think particularly the point about the OGL breaking the old route of leaving D&D for other systems is interesting, and has real implications for the market.

It is interesting, but is again another variation on the same old refrain.  I wish I could find a link to the announcement Ryan made back in 1999 or 2000 where he stated that was exactly their plan.  Seven or eight years later, he's simply telling everyone that he was right...again.  The significant variation here is that he's brought indie publisher Luke (Crane?) into the argument on his side.

QuoteBut hey, why discuss it if we can just roll out some canned anti-Dancey jokes?

Because some of the jokes are kind of funny and rather on-target?  That and the fact that some people grow weary of stating and re-stating their beliefs at length when the message remains the same.

!i!

I think people have a tendancy to forget how strong the mid-tier market was in the 80's.

ICE, WEG, GDW, Palladium, R. Talisorian, Chaosium, Steve Jackson - these companies were raking in cash by the truckload in the 80's.  They each had several game lines with dozens of supplements.

Now they are all shells of their former selves.
* ICE manages to put out HARP, but I have yet to see it anywhere but online.
* WEG is only just now trying to get back into stores.
* GDW is dead and buried.
* Palladium manages to just barely stay afloat with a couple of Rifts titles each year.
* R. Talisorian is basically Mike's hobby / vanity press operation
* Chaosium manages to just barely stay afloat with a couple of Cthulhu titles each year.
* Steve Jackson is barely even staying in the RPG market, with just 2 GURPS books a year now.

What we have to replace them is basically Mongoose and Green Ronin.  Both of which are predominately d20/OGL shops.  And the only non-D20 game that's seen success is WFRP, which relies on network externalities from the war gaming crowd.

I have to say, it looks to me like Dancey was at least pretty close to being right.  The market has shrank to where it can support pretty much one big system (D20), one counter-culture system (WW), a couple of scattering pockets of cult favorites (GURPS, Rifts, CoC), and a bunch of small press stuff.

Quote from: jgantsAnd the only non-D20 game that's seen success is WFRP, which relies on network externalities from the war gaming crowd.

I have to say, it looks to me like Dancey was at least pretty close to being right.

Wow.  Someone seriously using the phrase "network externalities" in a sentence, who agrees with Dancey.

I'm shocked.    Shocked, I tell ya....

FASA - dead.
GoO - dead.

I've been reading up a lot on D6 lately and as far as I can tell, WEG is pretty much a 1-2 man operation now and will be doing good to put out one book this year.