I excerpted this from a discussion on Mike Mearls' blog, interested what people make of it:

Quotersdancey
Is there any evidence to suggest that the $20 million or so dollars lost by the tabletop RPG category in retail sales in the past 5 years has been replaced by sales of Indy RPGs?

Ryan
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mearls
2007-03-31 01:22 am UTC (link)  
I can't talk about numbers for a staggering variety of reasons that I'm sure you're aware of. However, I think that we're seeing a lot more than a simple downturn in dollars spent on RPGs. It's the type of RPG that's taken the hit, the mid-list GURPS/L5R/Fading Suns RPGs of the world, that I find interesting.

I think those companies/titles are getting it from both ends. The technology of 3e and and the OGL have reduced the transmission rate of D&D player -> RPGs at large player. Manga and graphic novels may have killed off the gamer who bought lots of stuff to read, as opposed to play. Warcraft picked up the computer RPG crowd. The indie games are picking off what's left, the experimental/serial collector/amateur designer.

What we're left with is the guy who just wants to play an RPG, as opposed to read RPGs, design RPGs, or collect. I don't have enough data to plant my flag on that assertation and defend it to the death, but that's where my thinking is heading these days.

Essentially, the last five years have stripped away succeeding layers of the market who were involved with RPGs only because they wanted something that other media couldn't do better. Those things weren't core strengths of RPGs or are areas where RPGs have been surpassed.

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rsdancey
2007-03-31 06:38 pm UTC (link)  
I agree with your last comment 100%, and it mirrors all the data and all the research Luke & I have been able to assemble. I think we're seeing an "Emperor Has No Clothes" moment for the TRPG category.

Ryan

Just as some people come to enjoy the theoretical aspect of roleplaying games, either in addition to or in lieu of playing them, I suspect that Ryan Dancy and Mike Mearls have come to enjoy analysing the economic aspect.  Granted, they both have a vested interest, both as businessmen who want to make their products as successful as they can through foresight and planning, and as businessmen who want to convince the buying public that their analysis and vision is correct and thereby undermine the competition.  In this case, unsurprisingly, their analysis leads to the conclusion that, once again, their product wins and the competition loses.  No sense investing in a dying product; buy d20! Oh, or buy fringe games that are of no consequence to our market strategy.

Really, this is nothing new from them.

!i!

All I know is every year I sell more games, more profitably. What they are talking about has no relevance to my little niche, just as I have no relevance to their big market. I couldn't possibly do more than guess, which I decline to do.

-clash

Yeah clash, but I think what Mearls is saying kind of supports what you're saying. You're succeeding on a small press model where larger companies are struggling because the consumer base who are willing to buy RPGs which aren't D&D can quite happily support a company such as yours (especially when it puts out good product ) whereas it won't necessarily be able to support the companies publishing the "mid-list GURPS/L5R/Fading Suns RPGs of the world".

Quote from: WarthurYeah clash, but I think what Mearls is saying kind of supports what you're saying. You're succeeding on a small press model where larger companies are struggling because the consumer base who are willing to buy RPGs which aren't D&D can quite happily support a company such as yours (especially when it puts out good product ) whereas it won't necessarily be able to support the companies publishing the "mid-list GURPS/L5R/Fading Suns RPGs of the world".

I wouldn't know. I know about my own case, and about a few other Small Press publishers where I am close to the principals, and that's it. The rest of the industry is a black box.

-clash

Quote from: flyingmiceAll I know is every year I sell more games, more profitably. What they are talking about has no relevance to my little niche, just as I have no relevance to their big market. I couldn't possibly do more than guess, which I decline to do.

-clash

I concur. As with other threads, this is one of those "Uh Duh" statements by Dancy. I call him captain obvious. Essentially, small press is doing well because we are flexible and have low overhead. Large press is doing o.k. because they retain their market. Mid press is getting the crap beat out of it due to overhead and production schedule. I believe it is one of the reasons you saw the mid-tier pushing into a "fringier" market and away from d20 splats.

However, as with Clash, I claim no special knowledge beyond doing what we do and business is good.

Bill

WOTC is the large box store of the RPG world.

Small Press are the small niche stores (successful in their niche, flexible when required, low overhead, often great products of unsurpassed quality ).

Everyone in between is fucked.

Yeah, I've heard this somewhere before...

I'm sure this falls into the the above statement, although other factors I'm sure play into it.

But from the art stance, I find that a lot of small press publishers are working with very close the same art budget as the mid-tier companies. . . are are actually paying a lot quicker and more frequently.

Something that wasn't really a norm several years ago. (from my experience running ERS)

Quote from: Rick HersheyI'm sure this falls into the the above statement, although other factors I'm sure play into it.

But from the art stance, I find that a lot of small press publishers are working with very close the same art budget as the mid-tier companies. . . are are actually paying a lot quicker and more frequently.

Something that wasn't really a norm several years ago. (from my experience running ERS)

I pay for my outsourced work in advance. I doubt many mid-tier companies can do that. I've gotten burned a couple of times, but never anything I couldn't handle, and it makes me and the writers/artists happy.

-clash

Quote from: flyingmiceI pay for my outsourced work in advance. I doubt many mid-tier companies can do that. I've gotten burned a couple of times, but never anything I couldn't handle, and it makes me and the writers/artists happy.

-clash

That's good business practice, indeed.

I still marvel at the fact that people give credence to anything either one of them says on this topic.

Mearls is a game designer, and as a business analyst, he makes a great game designer.

Dancey is like a caricature of a supply-side capitalist: ethically bankrupt (his illegal eavesdropping on GAMA emails was final proof of this) and completely without scruples.  His statements are designed to reinforce whatever particular snake-oil he's selling.    He's not selling RPGs any more...hence, his recent statements.    But because he drops phrases like "network externalities" and due to the simple fact that some gamers have actually heard of him, he's viewed as some sort of legitimate source (a view which he doesn't enjoy with many folks within the industry, actually).

The opinions are just that.  Opinions.   Not particularly informed opinion, or, in Dancey's case, lacking in agenda.

Gareth, if I had access to better I'd quote them, but you quote what you can get.

So Skarka, whose opinions do you trust?  I readily admit to taking mearls seriously because I'm a fan of his work, which doesn't make much sense under scrutiny.  But he does have some sort of insider knowledge and I haven't seen any vast alteration in his opinions since signing on with Wizards.

But if there's someone else you take seriously, I want to know who it is.

I think what's interesting is what they haven't said, but you can read between the lines about.  Also, they actually avoided the question.

RPGPundit

Quote from: jrientsSo Skarka, whose opinions do you trust?

Generally speaking?   People with direct experience in the area they're talking about.   That's my measuring stick -- "Does this person actually have any experience in what they're talking about?"

"Insider knowledge" as a game designer on payroll doesn't lead to any experiential insight into sales or marketing.  That makes about as much sense as going to the graphic designer at an Investment bank with questions about Economic Theory.

For the particular topic they're discussing, I listen to things said by company owners, distributors, and retail store owners.  They're the ones with the direct knowledge of how sales are actually shaking out.