Quote from: James J SkachWhy did Coke change? To be Hip and Edgy? To go after the competition? To refresh the image?

To disguise the fact that they were switching from cane sugar to corn syrup?

Quote from: James J SkachI think Hasbro/WotC is leaving that market - or at least wants to.

Paper is a liability.  An expensive one at that.  Thus, we have the virtual miniatures board they're developing.

!i!

I think under the right circumstances yes another game could unseat D&D.

I don't think it's likely.  For one thing WotC would have to fail to see it coming for long enough that they couldn't adapt.

For another it would take vision and significant financial backing.  And please keep in mind that I've never said it would make money.

First off I do think an rpg could dislodge D&D from the public consciousness.  Mainly because fads are short lived and people's memories are even shorter.

It would have to be advertised heavily on TV to kids.  It would need the right TV show.  It would have to be right on the zeitgeist.  That is to say that it couldn't be before its time or even a few days too late and it would have to nail the up and coming next big thing.

You'll note I haven't said a thing about settings or mechanics.  This is in no small part because I don't know what it would take specifically.  My own guess is that military sf will be the next wave.  I've thought for a long time that the only way today's kids can scare their parents is by putting on a uniform, cutting their hair, marching in straight lines, and going to church.

It couldn't be liscenced from another media source because that essentially means the ship has already sailed and you're just riding its wake.  You don't become a cultural trend by following.

Quote from: Old GeezerTo disguise the fact that they were switching from cane sugar to corn syrup?

IIRC, they were responding to the "Pepsi Challenge" campaign.  In blind tests, people actually preferred the taste of Pepsi and Coke was, presumably, worried about losing market share.  So they modified the flavour to be more like Pepsi.

Ironically, New Coke tested more positively than the old flavour.  But it was their marketing tactics that blew up.  Had they slowly changed the flavour of regular Coke to be more like New Coke, it probably would have been a success.  But a big, brash marketing campaign heralding the arrival of New Coke alienated the vast majority of traditional drinkers.

What does this mean to RPGs, and more specifically D&D?  Never underestimate the power of nostalgia.

Quote from: Tyberious FunkIIRC, they were responding to the "Pepsi Challenge" campaign.  In blind tests, people actually preferred the taste of Pepsi and Coke was, presumably, worried about losing market share.  So they modified the flavour to be more like Pepsi.

Ironically, New Coke tested more positively than the old flavour.  But it was their marketing tactics that blew up.  Had they slowly changed the flavour of regular Coke to be more like New Coke, it probably would have been a success.  But a big, brash marketing campaign heralding the arrival of New Coke alienated the vast majority of traditional drinkers.

What does this mean to RPGs, and more specifically D&D?  Never underestimate the power of nostalgia.

Well, being a connoisseurs, I can tell the difference and prefer the nostalgic version. Anecdotally, most people I knew who drank coke at the time felt the same. I disagree with your hypothesis that if they'd changed it slowly without fanfare, they would have been OK.

The Pepsi challenge, however, was taking place at the time - but don't forget that was Pepsi's marketing shot across the bow, and should be (and probably was) taken for what it was - a marketing ploy.

How do I know? If the scenario you describe was true, Pepsi would be outselling Coke right now.  I'm not sure, but from what little I know, it did not then, and does not now, and has never in between. So much for the Pepsi challenge and the New Coke testing...

...As I said in my earlier post, COKKE tends to outsell Pepsi. Mountain Dew tends to outsell Mello Yello, Canada Dry ....etc.

 Other consumer/merketing phenomena : African-Americans tend to request Sprite to drink more often than Caucasians do . Don't know why - just know its true. Whenever the Film Society would show a Spike Lee or other similar movie - we had to double our order on Sprite canisters.

 So, if D&D is "Coca-Cola"

 Then what game is the "Mountain Dew"


For that matter what game died out blike ZIMA ? and what RPG system is as overmarketed as Red Bull?


- Ed C.

Quote from: Tyberious FunkIronically, New Coke tested more positively than the old flavour.  But it was their marketing tactics that blew up.  Had they slowly changed the flavour of regular Coke to be more like New Coke, it probably would have been a success.  But a big, brash marketing campaign heralding the arrival of New Coke alienated the vast majority of traditional drinkers.

OMG!  I cannot believe how many people don't know "the real story".  The massive campaign against New Coke-- was a marketing ploy by COKE!  They did it to make people nostalgic for coca-cola and begin buying the Coca-Cola "Classic".  Then phased out the New Coke-- which was only created as a marketing ploy?  Where did I hear this from?  The brother of a Coke VP-- so yeah, it is hearsay, but I still think that story makes more sense than Coke F'ed up-- because the backlash against New Coke actually HELPED sell more coke!

Quote from: James J SkachThe Pepsi challenge, however, was taking place at the time - but don't forget that was Pepsi's marketing shot across the bow, and should be (and probably was) taken for what it was - a marketing ploy.

How do I know? If the scenario you describe was true, Pepsi would be outselling Coke right now.  I'm not sure, but from what little I know, it did not then, and does not now, and has never in between. So much for the Pepsi challenge and the New Coke testing...

Pepsi Co. may possibly have overstated the preference for Pepsi in blind taste tests, but it is correct to claim that just knowing the brand influences peoples perceptions of taste.

http://www.hnl.bcm.tmc.edu/cache/eurekalert.org.htm

http://www.sciencenetlinks.com/sci_update.cfm?DocID=242

Stretching to get myself back on topic...  If a similar brand loyalty exists for the D&D logo, that would go far to explaining D&D's ongoing popularity, and suggests that 4E will not have a serious competitor.

OK guys, I'll cop to being wrong about market share.  Apparently, Pepsi did briefly take the lead after New Coke was introduced - for a period of a few quarters.

But read the rest of the snopes.com urban myth about marketing and corn syrup.  Very interesting.

The more I think about the New Coke episode, the more similarities I see between it and the current situation. Marketing, testing, "blind taste tests" all seem to point to something. And yet....


EDIT: I love this quote:

QuoteAs for the debacle's being a deliberate marketing ploy, Donald Keough said: "Some critics will say Coca-Cola made a marketing mistake. Some cynics will say that we planned the whole thing. The truth is we are not that dumb, and we are not that smart."

Quote from: David JohansenFirst off I do think an rpg could dislodge D&D from the public consciousness.  Mainly because fads are short lived and people's memories are even shorter.

I can't see a tabletop RPG coming anywhere close to reaching the popularity and prominence that D&D did in the early 80s. D&D is still riding that wave. And I can't see a tabletop RPG coming close to reaching the popularity and prominence of the most popular MMORPG. So I just don't see how this fad overtakes its rivals.

As I said it would have to be like the Pokemon phenomenon, just the right thing at just the right time.  In 1989 if you'd told anyone in the industry that card games were then next big thing they'd have laughed in your face.

*edit* I use Pokemon here because Magic never broke into the public consciousness on the same level nor did it get the kind of cross market support I'm talking about.

Quote from: David JohansenAs I said it would have to be like the Pokemon phenomenon, just the right thing at just the right time.  In 1989 if you'd told anyone in the industry that card games were then next big thing they'd have laughed in your face.

That's a good example.  We've all been trying to think of what convoluted market situations could bring down D&D's dominance, and I think most of us have concluded that it is very unlikely given the factors that we all are currently aware of.  It's the unknown factor, if anything, that will probably change the face of the marketplace.

Which is why Stuart was trying to bring that perspective to the conversation. If you're talking about "game," then the answer is yes and, to David's point, we probably don't know what it will look like - though my speculation is we know exactly what it looks like - WoW.

Haffrung's contention seems to be that they hey day of TTRPG's are but a memory now and that because of that, it will be nigh impossible for someone to gain the kind of traction necessary to unseat a brand with such entrenchment.

I'm not that pessimistic - I think if the brand leader screws up, it could be sorry.  At which point it would be possible to compete against it, whether that's with D&D Classic, Diet D&D, Mountain D&D, etc.

It would be interesting to see if 4e does poorly how fast, or even if, WotC backtracks and releases there own 3.75 - ya know, for the fans

Quote from: Old GeezerTo disguise the fact that they were switching from cane sugar to corn syrup?

Or marketing. Generate news like "Look! We are abandoning the recipe you love! Oh...wait, never mind." A great way to generate news and get even more people talking about your product. On a smaller scale, look at the Burger King commercials where they "Removed the Whopper" from the menu for a day at a Las Vegas BK. People will remember that. Heck, here we are talking about New Coke and the Coke Co. many years after its release.

Just saying, not all things are as they appear.

Bill

Quote from: SaladmanPepsi Co. may possibly have overstated the preference for Pepsi in blind taste tests, but it is correct to claim that just knowing the brand influences peoples perceptions of taste.

http://www.hnl.bcm.tmc.edu/cache/eurekalert.org.htm

http://www.sciencenetlinks.com/sci_update.cfm?DocID=242

Those deluded liars!

Seanchai