Hello,

Quote from: RPGPundit on June 13, 2024, 09:03:46 PM

Quote from: LouProsperi on June 13, 2024, 11:37:24 AMHello,

I think your analysis minimizes the impacts of both the announced OneD&D release and the OGL fiasco. Both of those likely caused reductions in both plans for 5E-related crowd funding and sales of 5E-based products.

Can you share a link to the article you used for your analysis?


Thanks!

Lou Prosperi

For THREE YEARS?


Also, if you want the link WATCH MY FUCKING VIDEO, where I tell you where the link is found.

I watched the entire video. Which is why I know at the end you mentioned the possible influence of OneD&D. I'm suggesting that it had more of an impact than you suggest. As for the link, I didn't catch where you said you found the article. Is asking for a link really that much to ask?

As for the 3 years, WotC first announced OneD&D in August of 2022, so just under 2 of those years. Maybe 5E started to drop before that, but the OneD&D announcement likely scared off lots of people planning 5E crowdfunding campaigns.


Lou Prosperi

I stated in the video, that I would put the link in the description. And it's there, right at the top of the description, before the links to all my various products and social media.

Hello,

Apologies. I watched the video here, not on YouTube, and the link wasn't in the post in this thread.


Thanks!

Lou

Interesting. Looking over Hans Messersmith's Kickstarter data here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NeoFj9XbZ29P_mmk2D4uoFCMDwY1lOU9SD5FXNuq7Mg/edit?pli=1&gid=2049869056#gid=2049869056

In the blog post, Xaosseed draws some conclusions from chance of funding, but I don't think that's significant. The threshold for "success" is arbitrary. I think the total and average funding per project are more relevant. For 2023:

• 5E projects: $28.4M over 633 projects -> average $44.8K per project
• Other RPG projects: $19.8M over 880 projects -> average $22.5K per project
• OSR Original projects: $0.9M over 71 projects -> average $12.6K per project
• OSR Scene projects: $7.9M over 190 projects -> average $41.6K per project

So OSR Scene projects are doing fine, just a little less on average than 5E projects. OSR Original projects earn less, but are probably necessary to keep spread in the scene.

I agree with Pundit's premise that OSR isn't dying. It seems to be settling into a stable niche of the RPG market. As a caveat, I don't think that the Kickstarter numbers are the whole story. I'm pretty sure that regular book and PDF sales will be different. Still, Kickstarter is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions even if it isn't fully representative.

Quote from: LouProsperi on June 14, 2024, 08:57:33 AMHello,

Apologies. I watched the video here, not on YouTube, and the link wasn't in the post in this thread.


Thanks!

Lou

Ah, OK. My apologies then. When I find a video linked in some other media I usually open it up on Youtube.

Quote from: jhkim on June 14, 2024, 12:24:11 PMInteresting. Looking over Hans Messersmith's Kickstarter data here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NeoFj9XbZ29P_mmk2D4uoFCMDwY1lOU9SD5FXNuq7Mg/edit?pli=1&gid=2049869056#gid=2049869056

In the blog post, Xaosseed draws some conclusions from chance of funding, but I don't think that's significant. The threshold for "success" is arbitrary. I think the total and average funding per project are more relevant. For 2023:

• 5E projects: $28.4M over 633 projects -> average $44.8K per project
• Other RPG projects: $19.8M over 880 projects -> average $22.5K per project
• OSR Original projects: $0.9M over 71 projects -> average $12.6K per project
• OSR Scene projects: $7.9M over 190 projects -> average $41.6K per project

So OSR Scene projects are doing fine, just a little less on average than 5E projects. OSR Original projects earn less, but are probably necessary to keep spread in the scene.

I agree with Pundit's premise that OSR isn't dying. It seems to be settling into a stable niche of the RPG market. As a caveat, I don't think that the Kickstarter numbers are the whole story. I'm pretty sure that regular book and PDF sales will be different. Still, Kickstarter is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions even if it isn't fully representative.

Well, on DTRPG an OSR game I have some familiarity with just spent an entire month being in the top 5 hot selling list, number 1 in Print, and is still number 1 on the OSR list...

Yeah, this topic came as a surprise to me as well.  I don't recall ever hearing this claim that the OSR is dying.

If anything, more OSR games are coming out almost weekly it seems.

Quote from: weirdguy564 on June 15, 2024, 09:56:14 PMYeah, this topic came as a surprise to me as well.  I don't recall ever hearing this claim that the OSR is dying.

If anything, more OSR games are coming out almost weekly it seems.

I agree.   If anything the OSR is getting bigger as wotc keeps screwing up and pissing people off

If OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.

*6e proper, not 5e 2024

Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 01:26:08 PMIf OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.

*6e proper, not 5e 2024

Not that would be a bad thing.  Make D&D great again. 

Quote from: GhostNinja on June 16, 2024, 01:42:06 PM

Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 01:26:08 PMIf OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.

*6e proper, not 5e 2024

Not that would be a bad thing.  Make D&D great again. 

Ignoring my disdain for WoTC for a moment, but a mix of B/X and 1e with some of the skills from 4e/5e and a unified d20 mechanic... and it being officially D&D would be pretty cool.

Sadly, it's highly unlikely that I  would buy it though. I can already get that game from multiple publishers with the benefit of not supporting WoTC. But it would be cool to see official D&D come full circle.

Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 02:49:04 PMIgnoring my disdain for WoTC for a moment, but a mix of B/X and 1e with some of the skills from 4e/5e and a unified d20 mechanic... and it being officially D&D would be pretty cool.

I agree.  I am a fan of B/X via Old School Essentials so I would like something like that. I have the B/X books but I haven't read them, yet.

Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 02:49:04 PMSadly, it's highly unlikely that I  would buy it though. I can already get that game from multiple publishers with the benefit of not supporting WoTC. But it would be cool to see official D&D come full circle.

Yeah, I have the same disdain with WOTC and plan to never buy anything from them again.

The interesting thing is that at this point the OSR has outlasted several WoTC editions. Obviously, you can probably point to some group somewhere that is still playing 3.x, or 4e, and there will be some still playing 5e when that finally goes down the drain, but none of those editions are likely to get long-term ongoing engagement.