Quote from: StormBringer;270803I had always heard that the entertainment industry does as well or better in times of economic crisis.  Escapism is always popular, but never so much as when there is plenty to escape from.  

I doubt most RPG book purchases these days qualify as entertainment spending. They're more like collecting. If you have 14 RPG books sitting on your shelf that you've hardly done more than flick through and make some notes about, then are you really going to lay down scarce 'entertainment' dollars on a 15th or 16th book? Actually using the RPG books you already own is a far more sensible choice than buying yet another book to stick on the shelf.

Another catch: Folks are figuring out that MMOs provide far superior value for their cash than TRPGs due to the vastly increased time spent actually playing the game.

Quote from: Haffrung;270843I doubt most RPG book purchases these days qualify as entertainment spending. They're more like collecting.

That's not a bad way of looking at things.

Also: the glut of d20 supplements did not exactly help the reputation of the companies shovelling out crap... and Mongoose was the one shovelling most diligently (although it must be granted that they were not the bottom of the barrel - that was Jim Ward's Fast Forward Entertainment). It is unsurprising that customers are more careful about committing money to new books, especially since Wizards capitalised heavily on this sentiment... "official products with official game designer wisdom" was their formula, and this formula happened to work. And so did the underhanded tactics with the GSL.

And of course: yeah, 4e is a different, very different game. It caters precisely to the needs of a narrower group of people than 3e. It is focus groupped well as a specialised product. For the fringes of the audience, it is not so good, but then nobody owes them anyone. Where I suspect this scheme may fail is that
a) these "fringes" make up a much larger segment of the audience than the marketers estimated, and they don't owe the publishers anything either, gradually dropping off as buying customers;
b) the core audience of the game is especially susceptible to acquisition by other forms of entertainment, e.g. MMORPGs, and may splinter off more quickly;
c) natural disasters and acts of God.

The next few years should be highly entertaining, and provide us with a rich source of DRAMA. :popcorn:

Quote from: Spinachcat;270723It is doubtful that the RPG industry will ever spring back to pre-WoW numbers. Too much of the fanbase has vanished and WotC failed with 3e and 4e to market effectively to teens.   Each edition is just recycling buyers of the last edition with minimal new blood, but lots of loss of old blood.

I sometimes think like this but then I have to catch myself and say, hang on, I know plenty of young whippersnappers who got into D&D through 3e. I think maybe older players just don't have much contact with those types of people, for obvious reasons, so they aren't aware that they exist.

As far as the OP goes, I agree with Melan that it's probably down to 4e having a relatively tight focus compared to previous editions. No longer being all things to all men, it has obviously shed a fair number of people who've decided, "Nah, it ain't for me."

Quote from: Balbinus;270681Fans are reading that as saying sales of third party products are behind those for third edition, but that's plainly not what it says.

Why not?

QuoteSooner or later, someone (maybe WotC) will come out with a gaming product that will reinvigorate the hobby, probably coinciding with an upturn in the general worldwide economic forecast, and a new standard will be set for sales numbers.

I'm gonna to be the contrarian here, per usual. RPGs were born out of the sluggish economy of the 70s and at first largely appealed to suburban Midwesterners who didn't have a lot of entertainment options or much loose cash. If marketed correctly an economic recession could be a boom time for tabletop gaming. At their most basic level, rpgs provide lots of entertainment over a long period of time and can be supplemented for free by the user. Having little cash to spend influences people to spend more time writing about and playing rpgs. Same goes for joblessness - just personally speaking, every time I've been out of work I've turned to gaming to relieve the boredom.

The problem, as I see it, is that most companies want to make over-produced and very expensive games with lots of accessories for the rich kid market. The people who design that crap have gotten used to being treated like geek gods for so long, it's almost impossible for them to imagine a gaming hobby that doesn't require their 'services'. That kind of elitism WILL certainly suffer from an economic downturn. What happens to something like 4E when the kids can't afford all those garish minis and rulebooks?

I predict after watching it go down the financial drain, the HASBROthers will suddenly start talking about a 'return to basics' and act like they've been playing nothing but OD&D for the past 20 years. Y'know, absorb the avant garde, bend it, crush it, farm and sell it as the new 'pop music' to kids who don't know any better. [Hmm....WOTC as Col. Tom Parker or P. Diddy?]

As a side-issue: I get the impression that, at one point, TSR was making more money from D&D-related products than from D&D itself; novels for example. What happened to that business model? Or is that what they still do?

Age of Fable: if I recall correctly, they became over-enthusiastic. The books sold very well at first, but when TSR expanded more and more, the new product lines failed to take off, and the company was eventually hit hard by book returns. About the same happened to game lines; FR, Dragonlance and generic D&D products sold, the world boxed sets sold, the niche products didn't.

I suppose it was not an entirely bad strategy; it was just a strategy they expected too much from.

Quote from: Kellri;270864At their most basic level, rpgs provide lots of entertainment over a long period of time and can be supplemented for free by the user.

And how is that good for publishers? So you sell the core rule books, then... what? Close up shop?

Quote from: Kellri;270864The problem, as I see it, is that most companies want to make over-produced and very expensive games with lots of accessories for the rich kid market. The people who design that crap have gotten used to being treated like geek gods for so long, it's almost impossible for them to imagine a gaming hobby that doesn't require their 'services'. That kind of elitism WILL certainly suffer from an economic downturn. What happens to something like 4E when the kids can't afford all those garish minis and rulebooks?

I disagree. I think the folks at WotC/Hasbro have a pretty good sense of their market, and their market loves the chrome. Production values are hugely important to selling stuff to the younger gaming crowd. Remember, Hasbro is a pretty successful boardgame producer, and their wargames all have heaps of miniatures and glossy rules. The gamers raised on those standards are appalled when they see the production values of the historical wargames hobby industry. Poke around boardgamegeek for a while and you'll see what I mean. Nothing could make the D&D market evaporate faster than cutting back on production values.

Sorry, frugal older gamers will never be the target for a mainstream commercial RPG. It's over. You're part of a small, amateur, micro-niche hobby. If historical wargamers can happily resign themselves to that reality, then I don't see why RPGers can't.

Quote from: Age of Fable;270872As a side-issue: I get the impression that, at one point, TSR was making more money from D&D-related products than from D&D itself; novels for example. What happened to that business model? Or is that what they still do?

I'm pretty sure that DC and Marvel make far more from franchising their characters into products and movies than they do on the shrinking comic market.  I think Hasbro hopes to use D&D this way, but they don't seem to have managed much so far beyond the paperbacks.
 
Some of Hasbro's moves have been about protecting the D&D image.  That was probably the push to changing the 4e license - they don't want books of elven porn getting in the way of a new cartoon deal.

Quote from: Nicephorus;270886Some of Hasbro's moves have been about protecting the D&D image.  That was probably the push to changing the 4e license - they don't want books of elven porn getting in the way of a new cartoon deal.

So much for the idea that they watch a lot of anime then.

Quote from: jgants;270833But don't forget that many of the RPG producers, printers, distributors, and retailers may be relying on credit in order to keep product moving (and unlike the big industries of video games and movies, they don't have nearly as big of pockets).  If that's the case, the tightening of the credit market could be more than enough to offset the increase in consumer demand.

Moreover, if your livelihood come from being a producer rather than a seller, would you really be looking to expand your operations right now?

Let's say you're in the RPG industry. What happens when your printer goes under, taking your product and money with it? Or your warehouse goes out of business and you can't get your product our because there's no one at the business. Your customers might be willing to buy, but if the FLGSes are gone and the chain booksellers are charging an arm and a leg because their shipping company passed the increase cost of gas to the bookseller, then is it worth it?

Seanchai

Quote from: Kellri;270864If marketed correctly an economic recession could be a boom time for tabletop gaming. At their most basic level, rpgs provide lots of entertainment over a long period of time and can be supplemented for free by the user. Having little cash to spend influences people to spend more time writing about and playing rpgs.

This thought had crossed my mind, too.  And, on a related issue, perhaps a leaner economy might encourage domestic printers to bring their printing costs down and stimulate local economies instead of printing everything in China and shipping them worldwide.  No, I'm not entirely supportive of globalised economies, good mixed with the bad and all that.

!i!

Quote from: Haffrung;270881Production values are hugely important to selling stuff to the younger gaming crowd.

Where is this mythical "younger gaming crowd"? Or, maybe, a better question is: What do you consider to be a young gamer? Because I have yet to encounter or play with any.

Seanchai

This is strictly anecdotal, but...

I was a supervisor at a Borders superstore during the time that 3e was shiny and new.  I was also personally responsible for maintaining and tracking sales in the games section of the bookstore.  Many, many young kids were getting into D&D at the time; I regularly fielded questions from confused parents, and many kids (ages 8-18, not to mention a large number of college kids) spent a considerable amount of time lounged on benches and couches in the store perusing the latest splats and sourcebooks.  We also had a lot of WW and GoO stuff, and that was snapped up along with D&D.

At least in my area, 3e did seem to pull in a lot of young blood.  While I didn't care for 3e, it did my heart good to see kids get genuinely excited over new RPG material.

3.5 didn't seem to have the same effect, however.