The announcement:
http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4news/20080108a
Important Consequences (AFA starter of present thread is concerned):
1. Necromancer will be on board, with timely and substantial publications
http://p208.ezboard.com/4E-Necro-is-IN-And-Products-Plans/fnecromancergamesfrm9.showMessage?topicID=680.topic
Had I known this two days ago, my poll answer would have been "weakly positive," minimum.
2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published
In other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?
3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?
Discuss.
Quote from: Pierce Inverarity2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published
From things GMS (on ENWorld) and Nikchick (on RPGnet) have said about the phonecon, that's right.
Not only is that right, but it's worse. The new "OGL" has termination clauses and other restrictions. De facto, it's not really an OGL, it's just a new trademark license.
QuoteIn other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?
Well, 3 for 3 I don't think ANY of those had any intent to plug into 4e (and prior 3.x SRD derived material published under the "OGL classic" is not affected.)
But for a next 4e-derived generation of those sorts of games... yeah, you are right. It's all D&D all the time.
Quote3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?
Well, it's not exactly breakneck profits right now from what I understand. But I imagine that's why Gareth (associated with RPGnow/DTRPG as well as being a d20 PDF publisher himself) was the first one to ask the question about the nature of the new OGL.
Quote from: Pierce Inverarity2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published
In other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?
Where do you get that impression? I do not see in the article where it says that.
Quote3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?
Not quite. It means that people who can't afford the entry fee won't be able to start designing 4E-compatible products until the rules and the SRD come out. Every 3rd party developer, regardless of whether they paid $5000 for a sneak peek, will be not allowed to publish 4E-compatible products until January 2009.
What this means:
- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right,
you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)
- Those who are willing to pay $5000 for a sneak peek will have 6 extra months to develop 4E-compatible material, but that material won't be able to go onto the shelves until January '08 anyhow. I think Wizards is hoping that a) top-tier companies will consider that extra 6 months of development time to be worth a $5000 investment and b) they will use that time wisely, so that the top-tier companies' 4E-compatible products which come out in January '09 will be of an overall higher quality because more time and thought has been put into them. Time will tell.
Now I begin to wonder when the first copies of the SRD will leak...
Quote from: Warthur- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right, you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)
I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, some third party stuff has been really cool. On the other hand, some third party stuff, particularly stuff it seems like was rushed to print so it could be loaded on the bandwagon, really sucked.
Seanchai
So, CS, a 4E T20 would be legit, right? "Requires use of the blah etc."
Not that I'm clamoring for one, just trying to get a sense of what might be ahead.
Quote from: Pierce InveraritySo, CS, a 4E T20 would be legit, right? "Requires use of the blah etc."
From what Nicole and Gareth related, it sounds like the license is geared towards D&D. No clue how they enforce it, but it sounds like not.
Quote from: WarthurNow I begin to wonder when the first copies of the SRD will leak...
It won't since it's just going to be an index of open content referencing the core books.
I think you can expect 3rd party material before Christmas 2008.
Quote from: WotCQ: When can I start publishing OGL products?
A: Purchasers of the OGL Designer’s Kit can begin publishing their OGL products on August 1, 2008. Other publishers may begin publishing their OGL products on January 01, 2009.
Edit:
Wait -- does that mean I can't release "The Complete Gnome" until January 2009 unless I give WotC a cheque for $5K?
Quote from: Warthur- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right, you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)
quick clarification from the WoTC link
QuoteQ: When can I start publishing OGL products?
A: Purchasers of the OGL Designer’s Kit can begin publishing their OGL products on August 1, 2008. Other publishers may begin publishing their OGL products on January 01, 2009.
edit: should've previewed! Stuart, for the win. d'oh.
Quote from: SeanchaiI'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, some third party stuff has been really cool. On the other hand, some third party stuff, particularly stuff it seems like was rushed to print so it could be loaded on the bandwagon, really sucked.
Yeah, I think that may be informing Wizard's thinking; I'm guessing they are working on the assumption that if all third-party developers have an enforced cooling-off period until January 2009 there won't be a glut of crappy cash-in products cluttering the shelves when 4E comes out.
On the other hand,
six months is a heck of a long time for a cooling-off period. Oh look, it happens to coincide with Christmas. How
convenient. EDIT: OK, so people will have to make a $5000 dollar investment to get products out before Christmas. I can see the logic in that; it means that people won't put out products unless they're confident about them.
Quote from: StuartI think you can expect 3rd party material before Christmas 2008.
Dang, you're right. I could have sworn that wasn't on the page when I looked at it - I vaguely suspect they've had to throw some clarification up super-quick.
This makes me lean more towards the "enforced cooling-off period" theory.
Quote from: DeadUematsuIt won't since it's just going to be an index of open content referencing the core books.
Well, the bundles also include preview versions of the cores, so let me revise that: I wonder how long it will take for the cores to leak.
Surprisingly ominous statement from Erik Mona:
QuoteWe are very pleased that Wizards of the Coast is extending the Open Gaming movement into a new edition of the game. We have already signaled our interest in moving forward with Phase 1, which involves getting a look at the OGL. Assuming that the new form of the agreement is acceptable, we will definitely look at the new game to see if it makes sense for Paizo to publish products that support it.
We have not yet made a decision regarding fourth edition and won't until all the cards are on the table. The difference going forward is that the card game has now started, and the dealer is getting ready to begin play.
http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboards/community/gaming/4thEdition/phase1OfOGLSRD1sfjy
Funny, Necromancer, a niche company, endorse 4E jubilantly, but Paizo, a mainstream company, are holding off. Why, and how much of this is showmanship--who knows.
Here are my thoughts on this. Other publishers please chime in.
It seems like a steep price for a license that essentially
gives you only a year ahead of everyone else. If they
release 5 months before they release the free OGL,
assume it will take other publishers about 6 months
(or less) to get their own (free) products out in 2009.
So, in terms of products, you'd have to sell at least
$400 worth of product (in profit) per month during that 12 month
span just to break even on the license (at $50000),
not counting other costs (art, layout, etc.). You just won't do that with PDFs,
which means you'll have to do a traditional print run
(about another $1000 to $1500+ for 1000 books) and work
within the distribution chain which is going to cut
into your profits even more.
I think companies like Mongoose can take a hit like
that, but I think that might be too big of an
investment for small press, especially because the
license will be released for free 5 months later
(after it has been beta tested by these $5000 package buyers).
What it seems like you'll basically be buying is the _public
perception_ that you're a real player in the RPG/d20
industry. Is that going to pay off to the tune of
$5,000? I don't know, but that's a heck of a big investment for most game companies that don't have an established fan base and aren't planning to focus solely on d20. I could see it as more viable if they weren't planning to release it for free, and the buy-in was $5000, but that's not the case.
It just seems like a six-month wait is an easy way to save five grand without losing much in the way of sales (for most companies).
Please do let me know if I'm missing anything in my (somewhat hasty) analysis.
Thanks,
Pete
EDIT: Also, not to mention that since the core books will be available in June 2008, a lot of people will already have products ready by January 2009. So instead of a 12-month window, you get a 6-month window. Basically, you're hoping for a huge number of Christmas sales.
I'm confused. Have they finished writing the game? If you pay the $5,000, does that mean you get to see the game rules they've written before it's released to the public? I hope I'm not being dense, but I need to have the obvious stated. :confused:
Quote from: Sacrificial LambI'm confused. Have they finished writing the game? If you pay the $5,000, does that mean you get to see the game rules they've written before it's released to the public? I hope I'm not being dense, but I need to have the obvious stated. :confused:
The way I understand it according to that release is that the 4E core books (released by Wizards) will be finished and available in June 2008, so the game will have finished being written by that time. The publisher pays $5000 to get a copy of the SRD and then gets to release products starting in August 2008. In January 2009, the SRD becomes OGL and anyone can release products without paying the $5000 from that time forward.
But the core books will have been available for 6 months already, so publishers who did not want to pay for the license will already know how the system works (they just won't know for certain what is and is not OGL).
Does that help?
Again everyone, please let me know if I'm missing something. I've only had a short while to look this over.
Pete
Honestly, I don't think anyone should shell out the $5,000. Necromancer and Goodman are definitely on board but why do this just to maintain market presence? Even these two companies are, at best, second tier (WotC being tier one) and what do they have to gain by jumping in early? Okay, maybe they'll have a good 4e GenCon but will it be enough to cover the $5k and is it going to matter in the public eye? Let's face it, second tier companies are still a gem only in the eyes of the internet-savvy fanbase--admittedly a small percentage of D&D gamers (thought I recall reading that somewhere)--and those same fans will still be there to support their company, be it 0 months or 6 months after 4e's release. Heck, how long did Necro fans have to wait for City of Brass for god's sake and were still happy as clams when it was eventually released? That same mentality carries over here, methinks.
As a new, small, pdf publisher, I'm actually happy with the sneak-peak fee. It tells me that I will stay my course until 4th quarter '08. Since I don't make that much now, at least I can expect the same steady sales. ;)
As I said elsewhere, if WOTC honestly thinks that there won't be a fully-functional and legal 4.0 SRD released under v1.0a of the OGL, then they're sadly mistaken. It will happen, and likely within a month of 4.0's release.
I agree with you there Brad, but from what I'm reading here and in the announcement, it still seems that WoTC is virtually guaranteeing a continuing 3.5 market.
I think there will still be a market for 3.5 products for a while yet.
Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerAs I said elsewhere, if WOTC honestly thinks that there won't be a fully-functional and legal 4.0 SRD released under v1.0a of the OGL, then they're sadly mistaken. It will happen, and likely within a month of 4.0's release.
I can see this happening. I imagine there's folks chomping at the bit to do so.
Why does the "Discuss this article" link at the bottom of WoTC's announcement send you to the D&D Miniatures forum?
Quote from: joewolzI think there will still be a market for 3.5 products for a while yet.
That depends on how you define "market." I see a lot of 3.5 stuff in bargain bins and some publishers aren't taking on larger supplements like settings and such. From what I hear (hearsay), online/PDF sales have also been down across the board.
Pete
And yet I notice, pspahn, that all of your products use d20. Are you going to upgrade all of them? Or are you going to wait and see?
I think in the PDF realm, 3.5 will be around for a while. The OGL we have now may become a serious competitor for 4th edition as well, especially if someone can make 4th ed appear within the current OGL's context.
Quote from: joewolzAnd yet I notice, pspahn, that all of your products use d20. Are you going to upgrade all of them? Or are you going to wait and see?
d20 Modern actually, which runs under a different SRD. So, I have the luxury of waiting and seeing how it pans out. ;)
Quoteespecially if someone can make 4th ed appear within the current OGL's context.
Now that's an interesting thought, especially if OGL/4E compatible products started hitting the shelves before 2009 from publishers who did not pay for the kit.
Pete
I just learned the news. I'm not surprised in the least.
I think it makes sense, and I think the original (3e) was very loose and not in WotC's best interests.
As a fan, I'm not disappointed. Didn't like much 3rd party products originally. If this doesn't improve things for me, it certainly isn't going to make them worse.
About what I expected, so there is no disappointment here - the writing was on the wall, and it is good to see my favourite d20 company be able to release material in a timely manner (it... helps the enthusiasm that one of these products happens to be
Tegel Manor :deflated: ).
Quote from: Pierce InverarityFunny, Necromancer, a niche company, endorse 4E jubilantly, but Paizo, a mainstream company, are holding off. Why, and how much of this is showmanship--who knows.
Necromancer Games is a company of two guys who run it in their free time, and a small collection of contracted volunteers who are also doing things in their own free time. Paizo actually employs salaried people (maybe about a dozen), and have a responsibility to them. It is an entirely different motivation, since Necromancer can afford to be satisfied with low profits, while Paizo cannot. My inner grognard sez Paizo should just make a well-supported, intelligently written 3.75 game and stick with it. However, my inner grognard doesn't have salaried employees either. :haw:
So the SRD isn´t going to be a real SRD, correct?
It´s (the new OGL) mostly a D&D licensing thingamajig, correct?
Quote from: PaizoWe have not yet made a decision regarding fourth edition and won't until all the cards are on the table. The difference going forward is that the card game has now started, and the dealer is getting ready to begin play.
If I were in Paizo's position, and having just hand WotC kill Dragon and Dungeon magazine on them, I'd be very careful with how my company viewed any new licensing deals with them. Especially one that's a lot more restrictive than the 3.x d20 license.
Looks like the companies that developed their own D20 based RPGs and built a fan base made a smart move.
Quote from: NapftorHonestly, I don't think anyone should shell out the $5,000. Necromancer and Goodman are definitely on board but why do this just to maintain market presence? Even these two companies are, at best, second tier (WotC being tier one) and what do they have to gain by jumping in early?
Necromancer attributes the massive sales of Crucible of Freya and some of their other early 3E releases like Rappan Athuk to the being first out of the gate with published adventures. I assume they're banking on the same approach for 4E. Even with WotC's own planned adventure series taking the lion's share, you'll see big sales of the first professional 4E adventures to hit the shelves - especially with WotC putting up a $5,000 barrier to entry for the first six months to prevent a glut.
Yeah. I'll think it will be a much, much smaller wave, though - the situation will be better for a while than it is with 3.5 right now, but that's not saying much. The Cult of Official is stronger, for one reason.
Quote from: WarthurOn the other hand, six months is a heck of a long time for a cooling-off period.
Yeah. But they can always focus on d20 products or their own engines.
Seanchai
Quote from: Pierce InverarityFunny, Necromancer, a niche company, endorse 4E jubilantly, but Paizo, a mainstream company, are holding off. Why, and how much of this is showmanship--who knows.
I don't know if it's showmanship, but I sure as hell wouldn't commit my business to a game engine I hadn't seen yet.
Were I WotC, I'd let publishers see the game for free, but require $5,000 to do anything with it before 2009.
Seanchai
Looks like Wolfgang Baur is looking to get help buying a kit:
"So, I'm asking the Open Design community for help, with contributions to purchase a license. If the contributions don't add up to $5k by March 1st, you get a full refund of every penny.
If they do add up, any excess is refunded and Open Design buys the license. The patrons who made the 20 largest donations will be freelancers for that project, with access to rules material under a strict NDA. I hope you choose to support Open Design on this occasion."
http://koboldquarterly.com/article001.php
Smart man.
Seanchai
Quote from: SeanchaiLooks like Wolfgang Baur is looking to get help buying a kit:
"So, I'm asking the Open Design community for help, with contributions to purchase a license. If the contributions don't add up to $5k by March 1st, you get a full refund of every penny.
If they do add up, any excess is refunded and Open Design buys the license. The patrons who made the 20 largest donations will be freelancers for that project, with access to rules material under a strict NDA. I hope you choose to support Open Design on this occasion."
http://koboldquarterly.com/article001.php
Smart man.
Seanchai
If it was 2 years ago, i'd drop some money on that for the opportunity. Sadly, i don't have 2 pennies to rub together at the moment, so the boat sails off without me. :(
See, one thing I don't get is that if $5,000 gives us a free look at 4e before it's made public, what if we don't like what we see? What if we say we don't want to publish using 4e or decide the terms of the new license are too constraining? Do we get a refund?
It's hard to commit to paying five thousand dollars when you don't even really know what you're getting. :raise:
Quote from: Sacrificial LambSee, one thing I don't get is that if $5,000 gives us a free look at 4e before it's made public, what if we don't like what we see? What if we say we don't want to publish using 4e or decide the terms of the new license are too constraining? Do we get a refund?
It's hard to commit to paying five thousand dollars when you don't even really know what you're getting. :raise:
Because D&D is THE market leader by an extremely wide margin added to the fact that WoTC pipeline is unlikely to satisfy demand for diverse products for a while.
For example initial release has three books, two modules and ????. The ???? can be filled by the 3rd party guys who signed on. Because D&D is the market leader likely they will at least make the money back with a little profit. Maybe a lot of profit.
Plus they can establish a brand (like Dungeon Crawl Classics) that will assure buyers that they aren't getting crap after Jan 2009.
Of course if 4th edition totally flops then they are out $5,000 less whatever they made in profit from the few books that were sold.
Frankly a total flop is not likely.
What Rob said.
The question Mongoose et al. are asking themselves now is:
"OK, so obviously we will sell at least 10,000 of Teh Complete Dragonborn--but will we sell 50,000? And will Teh Complete X series keep selling steady after that?"
Well, does the new license allow us to create new player races, new classes, spells, monsters, skills, feats, talents, etc? Or are we limited to making adventure modules?
Are we allowed to describe how to create a character using the new license?
What if we want to change how defenses work, and other such stuff? Forgive me my ignorance, but this new license doesn't seem like an "OGL" at all, so I'm a little confused..
I was reading some alternate history which got me thinking about the current situation with 4th edition.
First we have the quality of the rules and their presentation.
Second we have restrictiveness of the SRD.
Third we have the response of the second and third tier publishers
For rules quality I see several possibility
4th edition is D&D's equivalent of Traveller New Era. It has the name but not the same game at all.
4th edition is 3rd Edition rehashed with a radical new mix of feats, skills, races, and classes.
4th edition turns about to a lot more fun game for both players and GMs.
4th edition is a good game and differently but nothing about stands out from previous editions.
4th edition borrows to much from Diablio and World of Warcraft and is a poor RPG.
4th edition just plain sucks as a game.
For #2 we have
The 4th Edition SRD has clauses that allow WoTC to yank the license for inappropriate content.
The SRD Index makes much of the 4th edition available under the open license.
The SRD Index is highly restrictive makes only stats and titles available under the open license.
The SRD Index is moderately restrictive and makes stats, titles, spell descriptions, and item description available under the the open license. But none of the character resolution and the combat/skill resolution rules are made open.
For #3
Only WoTC is considered by the fans and the third party market becomes part of the lower tiers of the RPG market.
The the products made by the initial $5,000 publishers are well-received by the WoTC fans and thrive in the 4th edition market. Post Jan 2009 publishers languish in the lower tiers.
4th edition sinks taking down the entire RPG industry and RPGs become a niche hobby like board and counter wargames.
4th edition is a wild hit (for RPGs that is) and the RPG industry experiences a renaissance.
By Jan 2010 (or mid 2009) Hasbro/WoTC starts suing a ton of third party publisher for making knockoffs. The backlash splits the hobby. This could include 3.75 publishers.
Non D&D, Non D20 RPGs experience a renaissance.
A 2nd tier publisher rejects 4th edition and releases a D20 based RPG that is D&D 3.75.
Said 3.75 competes successfully against 4th edition.
--------------------------------------
I am sure there is more. I don't know what likely going to happy but I believe the possibilities I listed are some of the more probable ones.
Sorry, but I don't see how M&M , C&C and the like will not exist under 4E. WotC cannot go back on the original OGL and they will have an incredibley difficult time enforcing the 4E OGL that they seem to be hinting at since most of the game is based on the 3.5 OGL.
Are they going to need to enforce it, though? Let's face it, the vast majority of people want to be playing whatever the current, officially sanctioned version of D&D is. We saw this phenomenon acutely when WotC released 3.5, and shelf upon shelf of third party 3.0 products went untouched overnight. I suspect that this twist to the SRD/OGL has less to do with inhibiting niche variants and far more to do with controlling and protecting the D&D brand name.
!i!
Quote from: estar4th edition sinks taking down the entire RPG industry and RPGs become a niche hobby like board and counter wargames..
Whoa. Not to threadjack, but we're
not a niche hobby like board and counter wargames? I think we are, and I think we're about as popular as those games were fifteen years ago.
Quote from: joewolzWhoa. Not to threadjack, but we're not a niche hobby like board and counter wargames? I think we are, and I think we're about as popular as those games were fifteen years ago.
I think the RPG Industry is currently an order of magnitude bigger than the Board and Counter wargame manufacturers.
It depends whether you include the Euro Game folks in this category tho. I am not.
We could turn into a niche as small as board and counter if trends continue.
Rob Conley
Quote from: estarI think the RPG Industry is currently an order of magnitude bigger than the Board and Counter wargame manufacturers.
It depends whether you include the Euro Game folks in this category tho. I am not.
I think the RPG industry is much smaller and less healthy than the boardgame industry. I'm not sure where you draw the line... but i really think RPGs are the niche hobby compared to things like Battlelore, Axis & Allies, Risk, etc etc etc. I think WotC likely makes more money from their minis game than their RPG books (anyone got any numbers on that?)
Don't look at the board game industry as a whole for any indication of the health of traditional card-stock chits and paper maps war games.
Euro games and giga-box ameritrash is the board game market, not old AH style games. Those things are deader than dirt, though they might be able to piggy back board games and mount a small resurgence.
Quote from: StuartI think the RPG industry is much smaller and less healthy than the boardgame industry. I'm not sure where you draw the line... but i really think RPGs are the niche hobby compared to things like Battlelore, Axis & Allies, Risk, etc etc etc. I think WotC likely makes more money from their minis game than their RPG books (anyone got any numbers on that?)
Board and counter wargames are not the same thing as Axis & Allies and Risk and yes you are right about them and the rest of their type they are a bigger market than RPG. The games I am talking about which crashed in the early 80's are wargames like Blitzkrieg, Panzer Blitz, Panzer Leader, Squad Leader, SPI Games, etc. They crashed, and after a decades stabilized at a lot lower level.
Minature Wargamming is own category