The announcement:

http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/4news/20080108a

Important Consequences (AFA starter of present thread is concerned):

1. Necromancer will be on board, with timely and substantial publications

http://p208.ezboard.com/4E-Necro-is-IN-And-Products-Plans/fnecromancergamesfrm9.showMessage?topicID=680.topic

Had I known this two days ago, my poll answer would have been "weakly positive," minimum.

2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published

In other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?

3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?

Discuss.

Quote from: Pierce Inverarity2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published

From things GMS (on ENWorld) and Nikchick (on RPGnet) have said about the phonecon, that's right.

Not only is that right, but it's worse. The new "OGL" has termination clauses and other restrictions. De facto, it's not really an OGL, it's just a new trademark license.

QuoteIn other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?

Well, 3 for 3 I don't think ANY of those had any intent to plug into 4e (and prior 3.x SRD derived material published under the "OGL classic" is not affected.)

But for a next 4e-derived generation of those sorts of games... yeah, you are right. It's all D&D all the time.

Quote3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?

Well, it's not exactly breakneck profits right now from what I understand. But I imagine that's why Gareth (associated with RPGnow/DTRPG as well as being a d20 PDF publisher himself) was the first one to ask the question about the nature of the new OGL.

Quote from: Pierce Inverarity2. (not sure on this one) Games that do NOT require purchase of 4E corebooks may NOT be published

In other words, no Mutants & Masterminds, no Spycraft, no Castles & Crusades?

Where do you get that impression? I do not see in the article where it says that.

Quote3. $5000 entry fee = doom and gloom for the PDF market? Flip hamburgers till Jan' 09?

Not quite. It means that people who can't afford the entry fee won't be able to start designing 4E-compatible products until the rules and the SRD come out. Every 3rd party developer, regardless of whether they paid $5000 for a sneak peek, will be not allowed to publish 4E-compatible products until January 2009.

What this means:

- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right, you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)

- Those who are willing to pay $5000 for a sneak peek will have 6 extra months to develop 4E-compatible material, but that material won't be able to go onto the shelves until January '08 anyhow. I think Wizards is hoping that a) top-tier companies will consider that extra 6 months of development time to be worth a $5000 investment and b) they will use that time wisely, so that the top-tier companies' 4E-compatible products which come out in January '09 will be of an overall higher quality because more time and thought has been put into them. Time will tell.

Now I begin to wonder when the first copies of the SRD will leak...

Quote from: Warthur- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right, you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)

I'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, some third party stuff has been really cool. On the other hand, some third party stuff, particularly stuff it seems like was rushed to print so it could be loaded on the bandwagon, really sucked.

Seanchai

So, CS, a 4E T20 would be legit, right? "Requires use of the blah etc."

Not that I'm clamoring for one, just trying to get a sense of what might be ahead.

Quote from: Pierce InveraritySo, CS, a 4E T20 would be legit, right? "Requires use of the blah etc."

From what Nicole and Gareth related, it sounds like the license is geared towards D&D. No clue how they enforce it, but it sounds like not.

Quote from: WarthurNow I begin to wonder when the first copies of the SRD will leak...

It won't since it's just going to be an index of open content referencing the core books.

I think you can expect 3rd party material before Christmas 2008.

Quote from: WotCQ: When can I start publishing OGL products?
A: Purchasers of the OGL Designer’s Kit can begin publishing their OGL products on August 1, 2008. Other publishers may begin publishing their OGL products on January 01, 2009.

Edit:

Wait -- does that mean I can't release "The Complete Gnome" until January 2009 unless I give WotC a cheque for $5K?

Quote from: Warthur- Wizards has 4E all to itself for 6 months. No sneaky rush-printings of "pocket OGL rules" (shame!), no splurge of contradictory splatbooks (probably a good thing), nada but official Wizards products. If I'm reading it right, you won't even be allowed to make a nicely-formatted PDF of the SRD until January '09. D20SRD.org won't be allowed to update. Stuff like that. They probably worked out that customers tend to splurge on stuff when a new edition of a game comes out, and wanted that splurge all to themselves. (Notice, for example, how they've got Christmas '08 all to themselves.)

quick clarification from the WoTC link

QuoteQ: When can I start publishing OGL products?
A: Purchasers of the OGL Designer’s Kit can begin publishing their OGL products on August 1, 2008. Other publishers may begin publishing their OGL products on January 01, 2009.

edit: should've previewed! Stuart, for the win.  d'oh.

Quote from: SeanchaiI'm of two minds on this. On the one hand, some third party stuff has been really cool. On the other hand, some third party stuff, particularly stuff it seems like was rushed to print so it could be loaded on the bandwagon, really sucked.

Yeah, I think that may be informing Wizard's thinking; I'm guessing they are working on the assumption that if all third-party developers have an enforced cooling-off period until January 2009 there won't be a glut of crappy cash-in products cluttering the shelves when 4E comes out.

On the other hand, six months is a heck of a long time for a cooling-off period. Oh look, it happens to coincide with Christmas. How convenient. EDIT: OK, so people will have to make a $5000 dollar investment to get products out before Christmas. I can see the logic in that; it means that people won't put out products unless they're confident about them.

Quote from: StuartI think you can expect 3rd party material before Christmas 2008.

Dang, you're right. I could have sworn that wasn't on the page when I looked at it - I vaguely suspect they've had to throw some clarification up super-quick.

This makes me lean more towards the "enforced cooling-off period" theory.

Quote from: DeadUematsuIt won't since it's just going to be an index of open content referencing the core books.

Well, the bundles also include preview versions of the cores, so let me revise that: I wonder how long it will take for the cores to leak.

Surprisingly ominous statement from Erik Mona:

QuoteWe are very pleased that Wizards of the Coast is extending the Open Gaming movement into a new edition of the game. We have already signaled our interest in moving forward with Phase 1, which involves getting a look at the OGL. Assuming that the new form of the agreement is acceptable, we will definitely look at the new game to see if it makes sense for Paizo to publish products that support it.

We have not yet made a decision regarding fourth edition and won't until all the cards are on the table. The difference going forward is that the card game has now started, and the dealer is getting ready to begin play.

http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboards/community/gaming/4thEdition/phase1OfOGLSRD1sfjy

Funny, Necromancer, a niche company, endorse 4E jubilantly, but Paizo, a mainstream company, are holding off. Why, and how much of this is showmanship--who knows.

Here are my thoughts on this.  Other publishers please chime in.  

It seems like a steep price for a license that essentially
gives you only a year ahead of everyone else.  If they
release 5 months before they release the free OGL,
assume it will take other publishers about 6 months
(or less) to get their own (free) products out in 2009.  

So, in terms of products, you'd have to sell at least
$400 worth of product (in profit) per month during that 12 month
span just to break even on the license (at $50000),
not counting other costs (art, layout, etc.).  You just won't do that with PDFs,
which means you'll have to do a traditional print run
(about another $1000 to $1500+ for 1000 books) and work
within the distribution chain which is going to cut
into your profits even more.  

I think companies like Mongoose can take a hit like
that, but I think that might be too big of an
investment for small press, especially because the
license will be released for free 5 months later
(after it has been beta tested by these $5000 package buyers).  

What it seems like you'll basically be buying is the _public
perception_ that you're a real player in the RPG/d20
industry.  Is that going to pay off to the tune of
$5,000? I don't know, but that's a heck of a big investment for most game companies that don't have an established fan base and aren't planning to focus solely on d20.  I could see it as more viable if they weren't planning to release it for free, and the buy-in was $5000, but that's not the case.  

It just seems like a six-month wait is an easy way to save five grand without losing much in the way of sales (for most companies).

Please do let me know if I'm missing anything in my (somewhat hasty) analysis.  

Thanks,

Pete

EDIT:  Also, not to mention that since the core books will be available in June 2008, a lot of people will already have products ready by January 2009.  So instead of a 12-month window, you get a 6-month window.  Basically, you're hoping for a huge number of Christmas sales.

I'm confused. Have they finished writing the game? If you pay the $5,000, does that mean you get to see the game rules they've written before it's released to the public? I hope I'm not being dense, but I need to have the obvious stated. :confused: