Quote from: Pierce InveraritySo, the vast majority of the preorders are from people without infraweb presence. How do they even know 4E is going to be out? Was there some massive commercials campaign?

No, I don't think an ad or two in Wired is a sufficent explanation.

Which brings us back to the FLGS, friends, Dungeon and Dragon magazines, etc.

And just because people don't sign up on a forum and post doesn't mean they don't read and become aware of what's going on. They'll lurk on message boards, visit blogs, the Wizards site, etc. As a data point, the Pundit once stated that he had something like 1200 unique IPs visit his blog in a month (I may have the exact number and time span wrong, but my point stands). Only a tiny percentage of those visitors ever posted a reply.

And it only takes one person in a group, club or whatever to read about 4e for rest of the members to become aware of it. They only need to reach a small minority of their target customers; word-of-mouth takes care of the rest.

Quote from: That GuyAnd just because people don't sign up on a forum and post doesn't mean they don't read and become aware of what's going on. They'll lurk on message boards, visit blogs, the Wizards site, etc. As a data point, the Pundit once stated that he had something like 1200 unique IPs visit his blog in a month (I may have the exact number and time span wrong, but my point stands). Only a tiny percentage of those visitors ever posted a reply.

And it only takes one person in a group, club or whatever to read about 4e for rest of the members to become aware of it. They only need to reach a small minority of their target customers; word-of-mouth takes care of the rest.

I'll back this up as well, since I'm the only one in my group who reads and posts to gaming forums with any kind of regularity, but all the fellers check out the gaming sites, especially WotC, and are very aware of what's happening in the gaming world.

Quote from: That GuyWhich brings us back to the FLGS, friends, Dungeon and Dragon magazines, etc.

And just because people don't sign up on a forum and post doesn't mean they don't read and become aware of what's going on. They'll lurk on message boards, visit blogs, the Wizards site, etc.

My hunch is that the combined lurkers/posters of these sites number in the tens of thousands, while a single-digit amazon rank would be in the hundreds of thousands. I may be wrong. Or you.

I live in an RPG mecca, with half a dozen LGSs within 10 miles, some of them with major RPG sections. At any given time there are very few people browsing those sections, definitely not as many as you'd expect given that kind of preorder.

Sigmund, I don't think your group (or mine) is representative. Seanchai would be closer to the truth--a vast number of people aren't "very aware." They don't check out rpg info on the web with any regularity... but clearly a new edition catches their attention.

In other words, anyone who believes I'm trying to undermine the credibility of the amazon figure is wrong. I accept the figure, and I don't resent it either. I do think it cries out for an explanation, and maybe somebody who actually has some insider info could tell us about here.

Quote from: Pierce InveraritySigmund, I don't think your group (or mine) is representative. Seanchai would be closer to the truth--a vast number of people aren't "very aware." They don't check out rpg info on the web with any regularity... but clearly a new edition catches their attention.

In other words, anyone who believes I'm trying to undermine the credibility of the amazon figure is wrong. I accept the figure, and I don't resent it either. I do think it cries out for an explanation, and maybe somebody who actually has some insider info could tell us about here.

You think my group isn't representative. You think Seanchai would be closer to the truth. My experience disagrees with you, but I'm not claiming to speak for the gaming public at large. The point is you don't know, I don't know, and Seanchai doesn't know either. The question is, how do you arrive at your conclusion that "a vast number of people aren't "very aware." "? How regularly would they have to check out rpg info on the web to learn of the new edition and arrange to preorder it? Obviously someone is aware somehow if the damn books are selling. You tell me where they advertised, if it's separate from where we've seen the promotion (that is on the internet and at cons and LGSs). I also don't see why you would think it "cries out" for an explanation. Sure, it's mildly interesting, but honestly... "cries out"? Really, at the end of the day, who cares how the fuck the buyers became aware enough to preorder, not that it's really any of our business anyway (unless it's our job to handle that responsibility for WotC, which I'm fairly sure it's currently not)? I'm just glad WotC is having a successful release (if in fact they are), and I hope to see lots of new gamers as a result.

Quote from: SigmundThe point is you don't know, I don't know, and Seanchai doesn't know either.

Exactly.

Why you get worked up about it, I have no idea, though.

Dealing with several hundred unique gamers when I was involved with NERO live-action only a few are involved in posting things on-line. Those I still talk with break down into one of two camps

1) They are excited that a new edition coming out having heard from a friend that X was in there.

2) They are upset that Wizards is cranking out yet another edition so soon.


Note the lack of any in-depth knowledge in either case.

The fact it is D&D that it is a new edition is enough info to generate interest.

Rob Conley

P.S. This info valid only for the Western PA region your mileage may vary elsewhere.

Quote from: Pierce InverarityWhy you get worked up about it, I have no idea, though.

I could say the same thing.

C'mon guys, I can't believe you're all falling for this. It's pretty obvious that WotC leaked the printer's proofs to hype the game. They then pre-ordered all of their own books at a huge discount in order to increase the hype again. They'll now resell the first run as a "second run" (at closer to normal prices so they still make money).

Everybody and their dog will want this insanely great new game that flies off the shelves.

Some people are such rubes. :rolleyes:

Quote from: Pierce InverarityThis is a misunderstanding. I am not saying no enworlder likes 4E. I am saying that I suspect the combined posters of enworld, the WOTC boards, and rpg.net are far too few to account for an amazon sales rank of 3.

So, the vast majority of the preorders are from people without infraweb presence. How do they even know 4E is going to be out?

My guess is word of mouth. I'd estimate at 20-25 or so the number of D&D fans (various editions) I made aware of an upcoming edition because they either don't have an internet presence or they don't use that presence to browse roleplaying content/topics. I discussed it extensively with them in some cases. With my regular groups, I did weekly updates.

Also, as has been suggested earlier, Amazon profiles its customers and might make suggestions. People who have frequented a game shop, been to a LARP, been to a one-shot session or even played related hobbies (trading card game tournament or something) will probably have heard about it.

Also, while websites like RPG.net, ENworld and TheRPGsite have a specific number of registered users, they also have plenty of unregistered folks who might browse irregularly, a few times a year.

That's the thing with roleplaying games anyway./ They're kind of obscure and far from the mainstream. And groups get successfully organized via word of mouth. It's no surprise that in part, the same goes for a new edition.

There is also the possibility that things like D&D miniatures are pumping back roleplayers, or maybe at least "completists" who consider the three corebook a nice addition to their D&D collection (made up of minis and/or D&D novels).

Whatever is at work here is kind of cool because it seems mostly under the radar.

Well, I'm livid by default. You?

One of my players just purchased the whole shebang for me. All three books, plus the character sheets, and the GM's screen. Which was damn nice of him. I'll be looking forward to seeing this.

I've preordered the gift set from Amazon UK for £40, which is still a great offer imo.

Quote from: SigmundYou think my group isn't representative. You think Seanchai would be closer to the truth. My experience disagrees with you, but I'm not claiming to speak for the gaming public at large. The point is you don't know, I don't know, and Seanchai doesn't know either.

And, just as an FYI, out of my six person group, only two of us visit RPG message boards, etc.. There are plenty of non-D&D games (such as Dogs in the Vineyard) that most of my group doesn't even know exist...

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiAnd, just as an FYI, out of my six person group, only two of us visit RPG message boards, etc.. There are plenty of non-D&D games (such as Dogs in the Vineyard) that most of my group doesn't even know exist...

Seanchai

Likewise. The only other person I know who regularly visits rpg fora does so to catch up on new releases and laugh at some of the more obsessive types.

Quote from: SeanchaiAnd, just as an FYI, out of my six person group, only two of us visit RPG message boards, etc.. There are plenty of non-D&D games (such as Dogs in the Vineyard) that most of my group doesn't even know exist...

In my group of seven, only I visit forums regularly. The others sometimes get links to certain threads but have no interest in rpg message boards.

Regards,
David R