Quote from: Sacrosanct;760961The equation was simple, and sound.  You said it wasn't, and when called out on how basic math works, you started adding a bunch of factors into the equation that weren't there when we were talking about the issue.  That's called shifting the goalposts when you're changing the scenario to retroactively fit your claim.

But perhaps too complex to describe it instead of just a reference that keeps the ongoing flame war alive?

Shirts or skins, Sac?  What's better?  Why?

Ooh, I got a few non-traditional factors that just popped in my head:

Wild dice.
Luck points.
Successes.

Not a lot of DnD there but would certainly change the decision.

Quote from: mcbobbo;761026But perhaps too complex to describe it instead of just a reference that keeps the ongoing flame war alive?

Shirts or skins, Sac?  What's better?  Why?

Anyone who cares can read the posts and decide, been linked multiple times.  No one cares.  Fair enough.

Quote from: Warthur;760927A lot depends on whether foes have damage reduction. Of course, I don't even know whether damage reduction is a thing in 5E at all, let alone how common it is.

And in other games too.  In the FASA Star Trek game, if you had multiple weapons of the same type you could fire them separately or together.

Shields were simple subtractors.  It meant that if your enemy had shields up, you were better firing your phasers together and adding the damage... so, 2 point phasers would add together into one 4 point phaser with the same hit probability.

On an unshielded target it didn't matter, but on a shielded target you were better off combining shots.

Quote from: Omega;761020I would totally subdue everyone with my lightning bolt! :eek:

hurr hurr hurr...

Quote from: mcbobbo;761026Shirts or skins, Sac?  What's better?  Why?

The men should always be shirts, the women should always be skins.

Always.

Quote from: Bloody Stupid Johnson;760932Situationally, you want 2d8 if:
*you have a one-off to hit bonus (True Strike or whatnot)
*you get a bonus attack from somewhere
*you're hitting something with damage reduction

You want 2 x d8 if:
*you can trade an attack for something else which has an effect other than damage (trip, disarm, dodge, whatever)
*you're fighting something with only a couple of hit points, or other cases where doing any damage has an effect (spell disruption?)
*you get a damage bonus that applies to all your attacks in the round

The 2d8 has a higher variability, which is useful in some cases.

As you note, if the enemies have 4 hp each, then usually the 2d8 is overkill.  

However, if the enemies have 8 hp each, then 2d8 may have a slight advantage. The two 1d8 attacks at 60% has a greater chance to wound - allowing the enemy to strike back, while the 2d8 attack at 60% has a greater chance to kill outright in one round.

Quote from: GnomeWorks;760922Exactly.

The problem here is that while the wizard has a better chance of doing 2d8 damage than the fighter, the fighter has a better chance of doing any damage at all, in a given round.

As the fight progresses, the probabilities - apparently - start merging towards each other, and it starts being irrelevant as combat rounds approach infinity. (Admittedly I'm not entirely convinced that that matters.)

Fortunately the game isn't played at the statistical level.
RPGs are played at the laws of independent trail level.  That is where we get

Quote from: Omega;760884In one sequence the mage hit once out of 7 rounds while in that same span the fighter hit seven times.

That could be a dead Mage or even a TPK.  The group probably doesn't give a shit what the statical probabilities are, they see a dead PC or worse.

Quote from: Sommerjon;761119That could be a dead Mage or even a TPK.  The group probably doesn't give a shit what the statical probabilities are, they see a dead PC or worse.

With equal chances to hit, seven hits by the fighter and one by the mage is a statistical anomaly.  It could as just as easily been that the Mage and Fighter each hit four times, and the Mage saved the day, in which case instead of bitching about the Mage, they'd be bitching about how the Fighter doesn't do enough damage.

That said, lower variability will generally be preferred simply because getting a fight over more quickly, or possibly winning one you shouldn't isn't nearly as big of an event as not winning a fight you "should" have.

Quote from: CRKrueger;761033Anyone who cares can read the posts and decide, been linked multiple times.  No one cares.  Fair enough.

I'm far too lazy to go trudging through probably thousands of posts to try and find it.  And you have discussed it so much that I suspect even the search engine would bore the shit out of me.

But it's good to see someone concede...

Quote from: jadrax;760933*You get to apply a Damage bonus to the first attack in a round that hits

Is that just a fighter ability or open to anybody? Been awhile since I read the packets.
If its both, a damage bonus to just the first attack that hits would favour 2 attacks as its two chances to hit; I think rogue sneak attack works that way, so fighter/rogue would be slightly better synergy).

Quote from: jhkim;761068The 2d8 has a higher variability, which is useful in some cases.

As you note, if the enemies have 4 hp each, then usually the 2d8 is overkill.  

However, if the enemies have 8 hp each, then 2d8 may have a slight advantage. The two 1d8 attacks at 60% has a greater chance to wound - allowing the enemy to strike back, while the 2d8 attack at 60% has a greater chance to kill outright in one round.

Yes, true.

Quote from: robiswrong;761120With equal chances to hit, seven hits by the fighter and one by the mage is a statistical anomaly.

Take a large enough sample and that becomes 0.00001% difference.

You guys... The fighter is better. Because fighters are better.

Quote from: Scott Anderson;761189You guys... The fighter is better. Because fighters are better.

They seem to be in 5e. They sure solved LFQW for sure. Both the cleric and fighter make them pretty weak. Even FantasyCraft gives you twice the prepared spells and better flexibility. I mean seriously 2 signature spells only at 1/2nd level? Get real,. 4-5 between 1st-3rd is reasonable.

And make overchannelling worth it at higher levels already for someone not playing a cleric. It's not like anybody won't reach 20th if they just play once a week this time around.

Why do you think they actually need at-will attack cantrips? They literally choked off 6-9 level spells! Not even 2 slots for 6-7th level spells? No chance to even recover even a 6th level one at high levels. Really?

My only hope at this point is auto-prepared school spells, some signature spells ouhtside your 19 slots and some actual spellcaster feats, before I have to do it myself. It's not that hard thank God.

At least they're better then the 4e sham of a class and fixable so it's not completely hopeless.

Quote from: Sommerjon;761185Take a large enough sample and that becomes 0.00001% difference.

Obviously?  I mean, expected output is the same in both cases, so with a large enough sample we clearly expect them to equal out.

The wizard has higher variability.  This can go in their favor (massive damage in a short time) or against them (no damage in a short time).  Both are equally likely.