On ENworld and a few other places it is being reported that the new PHB 2024 is selling more copies than the original PHB.   I am not sure I believe this but here is the article on Enworld.   Discuss:

https://www.enworld.org/threads/2024-player%E2%80%99s-handbook-is-%E2%80%98fastest-selling-d-d-book-ever%E2%80%99.706875/

Core books and character options always sell well. This is both.

Unlike 2014 where it was a slow build of returning players and then those drawn into the fad by Stranger Things and Critical Role, all of those are now already customers who will snatch up the latest release, so it's high because the existing customers added over a decade are snatching up in a few months.

There's no evidence that rate will continue once the current player market is saturated though. If anything I think the fad-driven market probably peaked in 2022-23 and they'll never likely exceed the total sales of the 2014 ones.

I am definitely skeptical.

It's worth noting that Enworld really doesn't give us any figures of note to actually analyze. The only numbers they actually give are WotC's own figures on how large their consumer base is and how many people have accounts on D&D Beyond.

There's no information on how old the WotC consumer base figure is or how active the D&D Beyond accounts are. A survey saying they had 85 million consumers back in 2015 is wildly different than one in 2023, and having 18 million D&D Beyond accounts is much more impressive if 17 million of those have recently bought something or renewed their subscription than if only 1 million accounts have ever provided WotC with payment information. My point is not that these are lies, but after reading the article--all 100 words of it--I think these numbers could be very easily cherry picked.

I think we all can assume the PHB did well. However, "best sales ever" right on the heels of an inflation spike and two straight years of WotC putting it's foot in it's mouth every few months culminating in Critical Role going it's own way? And anecdotally, one of the life-long D&D players I know dropped D&D for Lancer in early 2023.

Good sales are to be expected, but do fantastic sales actually make sense in this context? I think not.

I expect this is speculative purchasing. The 2024 PHB is widely being sold as one of the last physical releases of D&D, which means that if you buy extra copies and let it sit on a shelf for a few years you can resell it as a semi-rare collectible at a markup. Putting on my jaded cutthroat businessman hat on, it's also possible WotC itself is buying it's own books to gain position within Hasbro. But knowing WotC's habit of collecting speculators...I think it's speculative purchasing.

Quote from: Fheredin on September 30, 2024, 12:01:20 PMI think we all can assume the PHB did well. However, "best sales ever" right on the heels of an inflation spike and two straight years of WotC putting it's foot in it's mouth every few months culminating in Critical Role going it's own way? And anecdotally, one of the life-long D&D players I know dropped D&D for Lancer in early 2023.

The operative words are "By This Point" which is the key to fudging the numbers into a news story.

We're just a couple weeks into the full release of the 2024 PHB. 5e didn't explode into a juggernaut overnight. It took time for people to give WotC another shot after 4E. Stranger Things and Critical Role didn't take off immediately. The pandemic didn't lock people down until 2020.

The point is... during the first couple of weeks the sales of 5e were solid, but nothing like its total sales ended up being. It wouldn't be hard to triple those early 2014 numbers if even a fraction of the current players were snatching it up.

The real test is what those numbers look like into 2025 as the existing customers now have their copies and there isn't a stream of new players looking to join in on a fad that is past its prime.

In graphic form... the total sales of 5e was __----; slower start then consistent sales for years thereafter; while 2025's is likely to be /\_____; a strong start but then a quick drop off.

The news is basically comparing the first _ of 2014 to the / of 2024... By 2025 things will be very different (Christmas sales will probably be the peak before the falloff to well below the 2014 numbers at the same point).

If they are including "digital books" on DnDBeyond in this, which are not really purchases but are licensed copies, then yes it is probably outselling the 2014 PHB. If we are just talking about physical books, then I personally doubt that is the case.

Quote from: DataDwarf on September 30, 2024, 02:52:31 PMIf they are including "digital books" on DnDBeyond in this, which are not really purchases but are licensed copies, then yes it is probably outselling the 2014 PHB. If we are just talking about physical books, then I personally doubt that is the case.

Funny you should say that. That's exactly what Dungeoncraft thinks this is; selling digital/ physical bundles, but counting them as two separate "product" sales.



I mean, that would be quite disingenuous, but this is also normal Wolf of Wall Street behavior, and not super-alarming levels of manipulative corporate-speak indicating an immediate bankruptcy.

In the political world a politician will write a book and their party will buy up a ton of copies to give away and thus pop the new book to the top of the bestseller list at which point it generally gets higher sales because of the perceived quality associated with a best seller.

I've always wondered if that would work for something like a Players Handbook when you have already admitted the game shouldn't be any different so its not strictly a necessary purchase.

It is corporate shenanigans. In terms of physical book sales, the first week sales have been very low, around 7000 copies. The number they're using takes into account the pre-orders and digital sales, which is not really the same. Of course, for them, it seems positive, because what they want is for people to play digitally. But it's a bit like claiming that your video game sold better than a novel.

Quote from: RPGPundit on September 30, 2024, 06:28:12 PMIt is corporate shenanigans. In terms of physical book sales, the first week sales have been very low, around 7000 copies. The number they're using takes into account the pre-orders and digital sales, which is not really the same. Of course, for them, it seems positive, because what they want is for people to play digitally. But it's a bit like claiming that your video game sold better than a novel.

A digital copy doesn't necessarily mean playing digitally. I own a lot of games in PDF only, but I still play them in person -- printing out stuff like character sheets and some reference pages, but keeping my laptop out at the game for my GM notes and rules reference. I'm sure that has become more common between 2014 and 2024. Having a digital rulebook doesn't mean playing a video game.

Also, I would say pre-orders of the physical book should count as a physical book sale. If anything, pre-ordering indicates greater interest than buying off the shelf.

Given the kinds of advantages that D&D 5.5 has over older editions (way more people into TTRPGs than any time in the past, huge marketing budget, easier to sell electronic copies, etc) it'd be hard for them not to exceed previous edition metrics in some capacity.

So the lukewarm actual sales numbers is telling.

Quote from: jhkim on September 30, 2024, 07:03:14 PMA digital copy doesn't necessarily mean playing digitally. I own a lot of games in PDF only, but I still play them in person -- printing out stuff like character sheets and some reference pages

Last I looked, D&D Beyond doesn't even sell PDFs, it's all broken up into individual text entries. So you can't print it.

So original source context helps. ENWorld says WotC sold three times as many, but the actual WotC press release according to more responsible journalists is that WotC PRINTED three times the number of 2024 PHBs in anticipation of sales.

Hasbro is publicly traded. People there can go to jail for lying about sales. They aren't going to just lie as some here claim. They will play with statistics so that a statement is technically true but misleading, but they're not going to just make the numbers up.

Corporations rarely outright lie. Lying leads to expensive lawsuits and possible jail time depending on the specifics. They bury data in minutiae and fine print and release very carefully worded press releases that are intended to present an image while not technically lying.

In this case the precise statement (printed three times the number of PHBs as we did by this point in the 2014 release in anticipation of sales) is likely true. It's just also meaningless since the 2014 PHB had around 17 printings in English alone so even three times the number is maybe a sixth of what the 2014 PHB actually sold in its lifetime. They probably WILL sell 16% of the 2014 numbers... eventually.

Except it was not so meaningless because the 'reporters' at ENWorld read 'in anticipation of sales' as "we've already sold that many" and wrote a story that multiple other outlets see and report so now you can find a raft of "best selling ever" articles pushing a narrative that WotC technically never said but will reap the benefit of.

So even RPG journalists are in fact, dogshit and you don't hate them enough.

Quote from: Nobleshield on October 01, 2024, 08:33:26 AMSo even RPG journalists are in fact, dogshit and you don't hate them enough.

Greetings!

*Laughing* WORDS OF ABSOLUTE TRUTH!!!!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Quote from: Fheredin on September 30, 2024, 05:33:57 PMFunny you should say that. That's exactly what Dungeoncraft thinks this is; selling digital/ physical bundles, but counting them as two separate "product" sales.

Interesting video.  I disagree with a couple of things he says, but its an interesting take.