How will peoples' opinions change, in hindsight?
20 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.
Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1100347Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
Well...yes. You're correct. In my case. But, that's because of how old I am. What would a younger person, who only knows of the remakes, say about the same list?
People are most familiar with their
first exposure. Anything before then is part of the history leading up to that conceptually seminal work and anything after then is a remake. I think the best example of this argument is
The Legend of Zelda. The best
Legend of Zelda video game is the one you played first when you were a kid. All others are part of that game's history, or its sequels. Independent merit is not a factor, because there can be no objectivity.
The kids now growing up with D&D 5e will think of it as
Dungeons & Dragons. All other editions will be tangential, even if individually a person comes to appreciate or prefer an earlier edition, the semiotic representation of D&D will remain 5e.
//Panjumanju
The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.
What do you mean by "these old edition?" AD&D and earlier?
I expect they'll be cultural artifacts dug up by the sorts of people who enjoy digging up old stuff. Like people who are into Tarzan pulps, vintage jazz on vinyl, and Prince Valiant comics.
Quote from: Panjumanju;1100374Well...yes. You're correct. In my case. But, that's because of how old I am. What would a younger person, who only knows of the remakes, say about the same list?
My own experience suggests that younger people are likely more familiar with the originals*, which are easier to access than ever before, after all. Remakes tend to vanish without a trace shortly after release unless they do something unusually creative. Also, I would call Charlie and the Chocolate Factory a new adaptation rather than a remake (sort of like the recent IT movie(s)).
*Although I might give you the new Planet of the Apes, which turned into a viable franchise for a few years.
Don't know but the pieces are there for people to keep the classic editions going for as long as there is interest. A far better situation compare to material that can only sit on a shelf and be shared with the permission of the right holder.
So the odds are good that one or more of the classic editions will still not just be remembered but still played.
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1100347Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
Do you remember the original Westworld or the new one?
There, you have your answer.
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1100347Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
Many of these are from the 1980s, which is more within living memory. Films from the 1960s and earlier -- like Planet of the Apes, Ocean's Eleven, The Thing, and Invasion of the Body Snatchers -- are more likely to be remembered for their remakes if they are remembered at all.
There's also a huge difference between a successful and unsuccessful remake. No one remembers the original Wizard of Oz movie, or the original Maltese Falcon movie. They remember Judy Garland and Humphrey Bogart.
With D&D, I'd argue that the 1st (AD&D), 3rd, and 5th editions were all quite successful. The 1st edition was largely a fad, though. It was hugely popular for a few years, and then rapidly faded into obscurity for most people. 3rd was less successful than 1st, but still made a splash. However, it seems to me that 5th edition is the most success D&D has ever seen. This isn't to say that 1st edition won't be remembered, but I think it won't be the defining image people have of D&D in twenty years.
Re: remakes, I think a lot depends on how much cultural real estate is taken up by the original. Ocean's Elevenand The Italian Job were successful in their day, but largely forgotten by the time the remakes came out, which I think is part of why they succeeded. John Carpenter's Halloween, on the other hand, was still a famous horror movie that was frequently watched when Rob Zombie tried his hand at it. Which is one reason that Zombie's version hasn't displaced the original in anyone's mind.
Quote from: Cave Bear;1100379The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.
What a strange response? Reminiscent of a danger hair.....
Quote from: Haffrung;1100381What do you mean by "these old edition?" AD&D and earlier?
I expect they'll be cultural artifacts dug up by the sorts of people who enjoy digging up old stuff. Like people who are into Tarzan pulps, vintage jazz on vinyl, and Prince Valiant comics.
The full D & D canon we now know; will be considered old editions, 20 years from now. Heck, I will be an old edition....
Quote from: Cave Bear;1100379The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.
Well, that raises some interesting questions ...
1) Will D&D 6E or Pathfinder 3E be the first game to go overtly Satanic and pledge itself to the Antichrist?
2) What versions of D&D will be played in the New Jerusalem?
:) :)
I think comparing D&D to movies is a bit flawed. Movie's are individual stories and can be seen in their entirety, are a whole unit. Games are a different animal--the RPG is a hybrid of text prose and collections of logical and mathematical rules. It is constantly changing over time, and it's not the same experience as watching a movie vs watching a remake of a movie.
I think D&D itself as long as it's published will continue to slowly change. The most popular form of the game will be the current version, unless they screw things up and make a radical change the audience doesn't want. The company can keep older rulesets in print but just because the material is available doesn't mean it will be popular.
Quote from: Cave Bear;1100379The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.
While others went "whoa" to this statement, I sort of agree with the sentiment. I don't think things will go that bad in 20 years, but I do see a lot of people worried about if their favorite form of entertainment will survive when, in the grand scheme of things, that is trivial crap compared to what may happen. People worry if D&D will still be played 100 years from now, and in the meantime, whole elements of our society or culture could be radically different by then! War, famine, disease, collapse of the government, collapse of an economy, change in social priorities so we don't have a lot of time for games, change in perspective, change it technology so traditional tabletop RPGs are supplanted by other things, etc. I don't mean to sound grim, etc., but considering how much society can change in a sort time, I wonder why people obsess over the trivial.
Quote from: Armchair Gamer;1100406Well, that raises some interesting questions ...
1) Will D&D 6E or Pathfinder 3E be the first game to go overtly Satanic and pledge itself to the Antichrist?
2) What versions of D&D will be played in the New Jerusalem?
:) :)
Actually, the answer to the first question is Shadow of the Demon Lord.
Quote from: Scrivener of Doom;1100414Actually, the answer to the first question is Shadow of the Demon Lord.
Hmm...good point. I should have said 'which of the two'? :) But I was leafing through
Art and Arcana the other day and was reminded that there
is a portion of the fanbase that seems nostalgic from the time when D&D was 'edgy' and 'rebellious.'
Quote from: JRT;1100413I think comparing D&D to movies is a bit flawed. Movie's are individual stories and can be seen in their entirety, are a whole unit. Games are a different animal--the RPG is a hybrid of text prose and collections of logical and mathematical rules. It is constantly changing over time, and it's not the same experience as watching a movie vs watching a remake of a movie.
I think D&D itself as long as it's published will continue to slowly change. The most popular form of the game will be the current version, unless they screw things up and make a radical change the audience doesn't want. The company can keep older rulesets in print but just because the material is available doesn't mean it will be popular.
While others went "whoa" to this statement, I sort of agree with the sentiment. I don't think things will go that bad in 20 years, but I do see a lot of people worried about if their favorite form of entertainment will survive when, in the grand scheme of things, that is trivial crap compared to what may happen. People worry if D&D will still be played 100 years from now, and in the meantime, whole elements of our society or culture could be radically different by then! War, famine, disease, collapse of the government, collapse of an economy, change in social priorities so we don't have a lot of time for games, change in perspective, change it technology so traditional tabletop RPGs are supplanted by other things, etc. I don't mean to sound grim, etc., but considering how much society can change in a sort time, I wonder why people obsess over the trivial.
So this is a valid point. Any my thought is that if the society of 100 years from now still has computer technology, anything now available digitally will still be available. And if we lose computer technology? Enough folks recognize the importance of books that many things available now in print will be preserved. And when you consider what RPGs are, and what resources you need to actually play them? People will still be playing them in some form pretty much no matter what. Randomizers (dice) can be made from almost anything. Almost anything could be used to represent things like character information (abilities, hit points) that we don't even need pencil and paper technology to be preserved.
As to what will be remembered? Again, with digital technology, almost everything will be preserved and thus remembered at some level. And given the existence of a game, someone will play it. Look at all the old movies and tv shows that are available, folks are watching them, and they are presented to be watched because someone remembered them. Sure, new editions and remakes of games and movies may steal 90% or more of the audience, but there will always be an audience for the older stuff and it won't just be old folks and nostalgia.
Quote from: JRT;1100413While others went "whoa" to this statement, I sort of agree with the sentiment. I don't think things will go that bad in 20 years, but I do see a lot of people worried about if their favorite form of entertainment will survive when, in the grand scheme of things, that is trivial crap compared to what may happen. People worry if D&D will still be played 100 years from now, and in the meantime, whole elements of our society or culture could be radically different by then! War, famine, disease, collapse of the government, collapse of an economy, change in social priorities so we don't have a lot of time for games, change in perspective, change it technology so traditional tabletop RPGs are supplanted by other things, etc. I don't mean to sound grim, etc., but considering how much society can change in a sort time, I wonder why people obsess over the trivial.
I predict that in 20 years we will still have people worrying that everything will collapse in the next 20 years.
I think in an apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.
Quote from: Razor 007;1100431I think in a apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.
Yeah you can't wipe your butt with a disk drive.
Quote from: Cave Bear;1100379The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.
In the 1980s, people were worried about the Cold War escalating into Global Thermonuclear War. It was a risk of global extinction - and yet, here we are, and on the average, a lot more people are living in peaceful, democratic and well-to-do countries than ever (although with the nukes still out there in their silos). Perhaps we can resolve our problems after all.
WRT the main topic - some editions of D&D have by now become classics; and classics have a lot of longevity. B/X will probably be looked on as the most accessible and flexible classic D&D version, so that one will be played a lot - it will be "Classic D&D" like chess is "Chess". The rest are slightly more speculative. There will be visceral immersive computer varieties, but the tabletop game will survive because of the human element. When everything will be perfect and smoothless in computers, people will miss and crave the authenticity and warmth of the human touch, the way we look at antique wooden furniture and hand-made items.
The rule set is just a tool, but how enjoyable the content is it produces will determine if it remains used. I think so long as D&D of any stripe is popular and recognizably similar, people will go back to the early rule sets to try out content in its native format. D&D is just math and presentation. It doesn't evolve except in the minds of people with emotionally strong reactions to previous versions and their experience with them. Someone in 2050 will be able to pick up an AD&D book and use it just like someone in 1980 did.
Quote from: ffilz;1100419So this is a valid point. Any my thought is that if the society of 100 years from now still has computer technology, anything now available digitally will still be available. And if we lose computer technology? Enough folks recognize the importance of books that many things available now in print will be preserved. And when you consider what RPGs are, and what resources you need to actually play them? People will still be playing them in some form pretty much no matter what. Randomizers (dice) can be made from almost anything. Almost anything could be used to represent things like character information (abilities, hit points) that we don't even need pencil and paper technology to be preserved.
As to what will be remembered? Again, with digital technology, almost everything will be preserved and thus remembered at some level. And given the existence of a game, someone will play it. Look at all the old movies and tv shows that are available, folks are watching them, and they are presented to be watched because someone remembered them. Sure, new editions and remakes of games and movies may steal 90% or more of the audience, but there will always be an audience for the older stuff and it won't just be old folks and nostalgia.
While computer technology makes it easier to save stuff--this isn't an absolute. There is still an entropy element. Some items may not be preserved, or new formats will replace old--like VHS to DVD. It may be easier with Digitial but, for instance, let's say 50 years from now the PDF is made obsolete by another format--not every RPG book will be transferred to the new format, for instance. You could lose a primary archive in the future, etc. Are things easier to copy--yes. Does that mean everything will survive. Probably not. This chance increases based on how popular the item is, and how much time passes.
As far as there will always be people interested in the older--that is true and will always remain true. But how many is the big question? For instance, there are fans of the older comic strips but it is a far pale to how they used to be. Lake Geneva, WI, has a statue of Andy Gump. How many people remember who that character is? At one point, he was part of a very big comic strip known far and wide in the US. Lil' Abner was so popular at one point the Shmoo merchandise was as popular as Snoopy merchandise was in the 70s, and now I'm seeing signs that people are forgetting the Peanuts characters, only remembering them from merchandise and the traditional Holiday specials. How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")? Once the first and second generation RPGers are gone, how powerful will be the appeal of a strictly interpreted original D&D or Traveller, etc? I'm not predicting 10% interest--more like some fraction of 1% thereof.
Entropy eventually I think will take care of the rest--our current civilization is likely to radically transform in a couple of centuries, or a new civilization will replace the old. This isn't a gloom and doom apocalypse view, its based on history and how long nation-states and cultures survive. I have to wonder if back in ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, or Incan civilization there was something akin to an RPG but it didn't survive since 99% of the trivial things didn't pass the test of time, as all that remains is stone.
What I always wonder about is this. Why do people care so much if the original rules or things outlive them? Is the RPG so important in the grand scheme of things that you worry about the possibility of it not existing 3-4 generations from now? If your a true historian and are actively trying to preserve this niche, I understand, and I see that as noble, but why do so many folks get agnst-ridden over the possibility that the stuff they loved won't survive a generation or century from now. Some of that is inevitable. Why worry about this--just enjoy the now and not worry about if this stuff exists in the far future.
Quote from: Razor 007;1100431I think in a apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.
In a true apocalyptic scenario--it's not the existence of documents that is more of a concern, it would be the free time and priorities of what needs to be preserved. Assuming we were talking about a situation like, say, we reached peak oil, and then there was a sudden lack of resources, and we had to move back to a more local economy, etc...a scenario like that means that people would have less free time. If 95% of the population were forced to work as laborers, and survival takes precedence in folks lives, playing tabletop RPGs is probably going to have a much lower priority than what we have in our society.
Quote from: Melan;1100437WRT the main topic - some editions of D&D have by now become classics; and classics have a lot of longevity. B/X will probably be looked on as the most accessible and flexible classic D&D version, so that one will be played a lot - it will be "Classic D&D" like chess is "Chess".
It's funny you talk about Chess, because Chess took a few centuries to stabilize into the game we know and love today. So I think D&D will go through several iterations and likely stabilize a bit when the copyrights on the original set of rules start expiring. It will be a mix of the first several editions. Maybe the original games are still available but I suspect it will become more of overall guidelines. I doubt people will worry as much today as they do about preserving the original rules or following them strictly.
Quote from: Razor 007;1100345How will peoples' opinions change, in hindsight?
20 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.
There are odd kids that worship Gygax, and wish they knew him. So there will always be that thing, and all that it comes with.
Quote from: Shawn Driscoll;1100467There are odd kids that worship Gygax, and wish they knew him. So there will always be that thing, and all that it comes with.
Gygax and Arneson probably seem like dinosaurs already, to a large portion of modern gamers.
I have a healthy amount of admiration for what they accomplished. They laid down a great foundation for others to build upon.
Realistic and immersive virtual reality will be a thing in 20 years. That's how most people will "play D&D."
As for tabletop RPGs, some version of B/X will be "popular" with that segment who enjoy old school games.
Quote from: Razor 007;110034520 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.
Renew! Renew! Renew!
Quote from: Razor 007;1100468Gygax and Arneson probably seem like dinosaurs already, to a large portion of modern gamers.
I have a healthy amount of admiration for what they accomplished. They laid down a great foundation for others to build upon.
More like for a future Hasbro owner to milk to death. See Star Wars and Marvel.
Who says there is another edition after 5th?
Idk if Hasbro has changed their "last chance" policy.
I'm not sure they even will be...
I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...
And even if it doesn't, ttrpgs are likely to suffer a downfall in popularity when and if the next technological break-thru occurs in entertainment, if it does... VR right now is just shit if you've ever tried those lame simulations available at any convention. Given 10 years it could develop into something akin to what MMO's were in the 2000's and I'd argue table top was less popular during that time because of it.
Even so, the OSR is such a niche taste and isn't reliant on any particular company to exist that I think it will always have some activity regardless of the time... so that means those old school games will be played, though just like the OSR games will no doubt evolve, not go away. I can imagine that mainstream companies are bound to get sold, liquidated, or become exclusively software companies at some point however. I mean, when A.I. can GM your games in any style you want... screw book format rpgs, or even having to socialize with real people anymore, right?
Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?
Quote from: Graytung;1100530I'm not sure they even will be...
I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...
And even if it doesn't, ttrpgs are likely to suffer a downfall in popularity when and if the next technological break-thru occurs in entertainment, if it does... VR right now is just shit if you've ever tried those lame simulations available at any convention. Given 10 years it could develop into something akin to what MMO's were in the 2000's and I'd argue table top was less popular during that time because of it.
Even so, the OSR is such a niche taste and isn't reliant on any particular company to exist that I think it will always have some activity regardless of the time... so that means those old school games will be played, though just like the OSR games will no doubt evolve, not go away. I can imagine that mainstream companies are bound to get sold, liquidated, or become exclusively software companies at some point however. I mean, when A.I. can GM your games in any style you want... screw book format rpgs, or even having to socialize with real people anymore, right?
Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?
Well one problem with that theory is if microtransactions aren't made illegal, video games will be full of them.
So your AI GM will be constantly reminding you about the sale on loot crate keys to open the premium treasure you got from the dungeon. Because that shit makes tons of money and it doesn't not matter if you don't like it because some mentally ill whale is going to spend 10 grand on it.
Capitalism optimizes to what makes the most profit and microtransactions make the most profit. Any business venture than can include them will include them. This is why MMOs died. They exist to prey on a few whales and really do not need anyone else playing if the whales are happy.
So I see a niche for RPGs as something small companies can pump out for niche audiences and sustain themselves.
Rolling dice, telling stories, and letting the dice decide the outcome; will live on, even if modern sports and entertainment mediums fail. There will always be pockets of people playing some type of RPG. All one needs; is a few dice, and some imagination.
Even during times of hardship; people will long for an outlet, to take their minds off of their troubles.
Quote from: JRT;1100444While computer technology makes it easier to save stuff--this isn't an absolute. There is still an entropy element. Some items may not be preserved, or new formats will replace old--like VHS to DVD. It may be easier with Digitial but, for instance, let's say 50 years from now the PDF is made obsolete by another format--not every RPG book will be transferred to the new format, for instance. You could lose a primary archive in the future, etc. Are things easier to copy--yes. Does that mean everything will survive. Probably not. This chance increases based on how popular the item is, and how much time passes.
Granted there is some risk of this, but I think it's actually pretty small. While the popular format may change, there will still be readers for any previously popular format. Graphics programs still do GIF and BMP even though most pictures are in other formats these days. And most formats these days have open source programs that can read them meaning we don't have to rely on a rights holder continuing the format.
QuoteAs far as there will always be people interested in the older--that is true and will always remain true. But how many is the big question? For instance, there are fans of the older comic strips but it is a far pale to how they used to be. Lake Geneva, WI, has a statue of Andy Gump. How many people remember who that character is? At one point, he was part of a very big comic strip known far and wide in the US. Lil' Abner was so popular at one point the Shmoo merchandise was as popular as Snoopy merchandise was in the 70s, and now I'm seeing signs that people are forgetting the Peanuts characters, only remembering them from merchandise and the traditional Holiday specials. How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")? Once the first and second generation RPGers are gone, how powerful will be the appeal of a strictly interpreted original D&D or Traveller, etc? I'm not predicting 10% interest--more like some fraction of 1% thereof.
Doesn't have to be a big audience to keep it alive.
QuoteEntropy eventually I think will take care of the rest--our current civilization is likely to radically transform in a couple of centuries, or a new civilization will replace the old. This isn't a gloom and doom apocalypse view, its based on history and how long nation-states and cultures survive. I have to wonder if back in ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, or Incan civilization there was something akin to an RPG but it didn't survive since 99% of the trivial things didn't pass the test of time, as all that remains is stone.
Obviously we can never know, but I sort of doubt it. But today's world has much better communication and archiving technology, and one thing that communication technology has done is that a huge portion of the worlds population speaks at least one of a small set of languages such that ideas can be shared world-wide with ease. And note that we can still read Greek and Latin texts. Sure, we lost the Egyptian and Incan languages (though we've decoded a lot of their texts), but those were also smaller cultures.
QuoteWhat I always wonder about is this. Why do people care so much if the original rules or things outlive them? Is the RPG so important in the grand scheme of things that you worry about the possibility of it not existing 3-4 generations from now? If your a true historian and are actively trying to preserve this niche, I understand, and I see that as noble, but why do so many folks get agnst-ridden over the possibility that the stuff they loved won't survive a generation or century from now. Some of that is inevitable. Why worry about this--just enjoy the now and not worry about if this stuff exists in the far future.[/quote[
Who's angst ridden about this? I don't lie awake worrying, it's just when it's brought up, I have confidence the hobby will still exist in some form, and at least the more popular and significant games will still be around somewhere.
QuoteIn a true apocalyptic scenario--it's not the existence of documents that is more of a concern, it would be the free time and priorities of what needs to be preserved. Assuming we were talking about a situation like, say, we reached peak oil, and then there was a sudden lack of resources, and we had to move back to a more local economy, etc...a scenario like that means that people would have less free time. If 95% of the population were forced to work as laborers, and survival takes precedence in folks lives, playing tabletop RPGs is probably going to have a much lower priority than what we have in our society.
It's true people might have less free time, but they will still have some. And some will find RPGs a great way to use that free time since it easily allows them to make up their own entertainment.
QuoteIt's funny you talk about Chess, because Chess took a few centuries to stabilize into the game we know and love today. So I think D&D will go through several iterations and likely stabilize a bit when the copyrights on the original set of rules start expiring. It will be a mix of the first several editions. Maybe the original games are still available but I suspect it will become more of overall guidelines. I doubt people will worry as much today as they do about preserving the original rules or following them strictly.
Chess also developed in an era of much lower communication technology. Today, a new idea is spread wide in but a few days. On the one hand, that allows faster change, on the other, it also means that things will stabilize quicker. I think with that, there will be bursts of major change which then stabilize quickly, followed by periods of more stability. And who knows, the hobby might eventually actually grow out of a new edition every few years. But I'm also not sure how much that matters.
However unfortunate it may be, 20 years in the future D&D will be dead; its legacy forgotten, reduced to rubble and then again to ash. Massive AI-driven, Ogre-like war machines will roll across the country side decimating everything in their path. In the end, roleplaying games will become extinct. Second fiddle to survival.
Save for, that is, the one heralded by the massive cyber-pyramid, its ever watchful eye/lens scanning the blasted lands and bringing shelter and enlightenment to the beleaguered survivors... yes, indeed it will be GURPS that is played proudly by all the wasteland cults, biker gangs, and in every remaining sheltered community alike! It will rise again, the last form of recreation on Earth! Unification awaits, hear me! Behold the prophecy and do not stray the path! Join me brothers in accelerating us towards the final salvation! Look to Kromm and weep in ecstasy! Clutch the Holy Texts close, for they must survive The End for the prophecy to be fulfilled!
Ahem...
Quote from: Rhedyn;1100533Well one problem with that theory is if microtransactions aren't made illegal, video games will be full of them.
So your AI GM will be constantly reminding you about the sale on loot crate keys to open the premium treasure you got from the dungeon. Because that shit makes tons of money and it doesn't not matter if you don't like it because some mentally ill whale is going to spend 10 grand on it.
Capitalism optimizes to what makes the most profit and microtransactions make the most profit. Any business venture than can include them will include them. This is why MMOs died. They exist to prey on a few whales and really do not need anyone else playing if the whales are happy.
So I see a niche for RPGs as something small companies can pump out for niche audiences and sustain themselves.
Um, I don't like the idea of being called a freeloader by my A.I. GM.... shit.
The Gen X bulge of gamers who started in the 80s will still very much be here in 20 years, average age of 65-70. They will still remember the OSR like it was yesterday and revere their youth.
Now, in 50 years, that's another story. But pointless to speculate as DnD may be haram, or we may be all brains in vats or our grandchildren may be riding the wasteland in hotrods.
Quote from: Graytung;1100530Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?
How can you have an AI with a Scottish accent that is not racist?
That thing will be roaming around the internet just looking for other AIs to headbutt with the added advantage that no one will be able to understand what its trying to say.
Quote from: Graytung;1100530I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...
The world actually ended in 2012 because ancient Mayans would not put us wrong, would they?
I think the imagery of 1e AD&D will still be iconic in 20 years, especially the PHB demon idol cover. And a few other things like the cover of the 1e Forgotten Realms Grey Box. And most of all the red dragon on the 1983 Mentzer Basic Set.
Quote from: JRT;1100444How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")?
A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica. :)
It is a slightly odd feeling going to a Gloryhammer concert in London & being possibly the oldest person in the room!
Quote from: The_Shadow;1100596The Gen X bulge of gamers who started in the 80s will still very much be here in 20 years, average age of 65-70. They will still remember the OSR like it was yesterday and revere their youth.
Now, in 50 years, that's another story. But pointless to speculate as DnD may be haram, or we may be all brains in vats or our grandchildren may be riding the wasteland in hotrods.
I don't follow your age estimate. From my view, I'm on the young end of the old guard. I was born in 1970 and was in pre-school when D&D came out. I think the center of the first generation were in high school or college when D&D came out, making them about 10-15 years older than me. I'll be 70 in twenty years, and they'll be in their 80s.
D&D had it's peak of popularity around 1980. In 1982, there was Mazes and Monsters, the D&D cartoon, and D&D being played in E.T. But by the time those came out, the peak had already passed. After that, D&D mostly faded into obscurity as far as the public consciousness, and would only surface again decades later.
Most of my friends and family are only aware of D & D because "I" care about it. I had to remind them that it existed a few years ago.
Quote from: S'mon;1100608A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica. :)
On the flip side of that, a girl who works at the place where I get coffee every day who is a good 20 years younger than me appears to be one of the world's biggest 80s Metal fans. I'm pretty sure she wasn't alive when most of the albums she plays at the counter were released.
Quote from: Dimitrios;1100613On the flip side of that, a girl who works at the place where I get coffee every day who is a good 20 years younger than me appears to be one of the world's biggest 80s Metal fans. I'm pretty sure she wasn't alive when most of the albums she plays at the counter were released.
Which reminds me - in 1989 vinyl was
absolutely dead, right? Young kids never go back to an older format because of its feel.
Quote from: S'mon;1100608A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica. :)
As headbangers, we are incredibly spoiled right now with a new Golden Age of Metal. As much as I love the metal of the 80s, I couldn't imagine limiting myself when there is so much incredibly awesome new music by both new and established bands. My main playlists are probably 50% Euro, 40% American and 10% Other (since we now have Maori Metal with Alien Weaponry (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kwIkF6LFDc), Indian Metal with Bloodywood (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4FqGPRQWFM), and Mongolian Rock with the HU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc) and more).
Quote from: S'mon;1100608It is a slightly odd feeling going to a Gloryhammer concert in London & being possibly the oldest person in the room!
Glory! Hammer! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKlVYJTSzuU) Hot damn I love that band so much. I'm definitely the oldest guy in most of the pits these days for almost any band, except for Iron Maiden shows which brings out the Old Grey Ones. What's crazy was the Helloween Pumpkins United (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Feu8bxF05Rw) show where I assumed it was gonna be all geezers and instead there was an army of young people who found Helloween via streaming services.
Hey, gang? What will be remembered 20 years from now will be what is good and what made an impact. Some things will be timeless because they are great, but some things will be timeless because the suck so badly.
Quote from: Spinachcat;1100666As headbangers, we are incredibly spoiled right now with a new Golden Age of Metal.
Yeah, it's almost like an 'Old School Renaissance', to coin a phrase. :D The 1990s were a very dark time for Metal, in more ways than one - for a while it seemed like the baleful influence of Grunge had killed Tru Metal in the US. Bit like how Vampire nearly killed D&D. In Britain self-consciousness and ironic parody (The Darkness) seemed to put the nail in the coffin, but luckily the Swedes, Finns, Germans etc soon came to the rescue.
Quote from: Spinachcat;1100469Realistic and immersive virtual reality will be a thing in 20 years. That's how most people will "play D&D."
More likely, millions of people will watch a small group of D-grade actors "playing" pre-scripted adventures in those digital realities, while making and decorating avatars for the game that they will never themselves play (but share the avatar on social media).
Meanwhile, the OSR will still be around. Or at least, it will if I'm still alive.
Quote from: RPGPundit;1101592More likely, millions of people will watch a small group of D-grade actors "playing" pre-scripted adventures in those digital realities, while making and decorating avatars for the game that they will never themselves play (but share the avatar on social media).
Meanwhile, the OSR will still be around. Or at least, it will if I'm still alive.
I'm pretty sure there will still be tabletop RPGs in places like London. They (well, D&D) seem vastly more popular now than 15-20 years ago. Like the huge renaissance in boardgaming, it's part of a hunger for real-life connection. Men have always connected through hobbies & sports, but now many women are doing the same.
There will always be a few of us old fuddy duddies reading old dusty RPG books, rolling dice, and telling stories.
Quote from: S'mon;1101602Like the huge renaissance in boardgaming, it's part of a hunger for real-life connection. Men have always connected through hobbies & sports, but now many women are doing the same.
I wonder sometimes how much of this hunger isn't an outgrowth of the increasing digitization of our lives.
Quote from: Brendan;1101604I wonder sometimes how much of this hunger isn't an outgrowth of the increasing digitization of our lives.
Yes.
It's actually easier for me to get players at my AD&D1e games than it used to be. As my good gamer friend said, "People don't have friends these days." People spend time on social media in search of connection, and the time they spend on social media deprives them of connections. So if you have an open game table, people will come.
Quote from: Razor 007;1100345How will peoples' opinions change, in hindsight?
20 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.
I can tell you what I'm already noticing. Hindsight is definitely not 20/20.
When you "have all the information"--like I can easily find bootleg copies of 1E and 2E then go and compare and contrast. Back in the day when those editions were live, I'd say it's pretty rare for anyone to own EVERYTHING. So the perceptions of those differences have changed.
For the longest time, a lot of people thought 2E invented THAC0. I think this one has been pretty well debunked. But it does illustrate the point. You can easily make that mistake if you download all the texts and just not notice that weird sideways printed Appendix of the DMG which has "To Hit AC 0." There's zero chance of making that same mistake when you actually used THAC0 before 2E came out.
But I see other things pop up. Like "You're not playing 1E BtB if you generate stats using 3d6." Again, an easy mistake to make when you compare and contrast the texts. 3d6 is explicitly listed among the methods in 2E. It's not listed as a method in 1E. But of course 1E was "advanced" from regular D&D. The 3d6 method was the well known method at the time. So when I read the methods in the DMG, I notice that the methods in 1E are specifically called "alternatives." Alternatives to what? To what we've been doing all along. If you've got it in your head that 3d6 don't exist in 1E, "alternatives" is easily interpreted as "Well, they're alternatives to one another." It's also easy to misread that section in the PHB where it says it's difficult for a character survive without at least two scores of 15+ as instructions to use a more generous dicing method to ensure starting characters have that. Whereas I read it and say, "Okay, so when this character without those high scores dies, I shouldn't feel bad. I should feel really accomplishes if the character survives long-term. And if I do happen to roll at least two high stats, that character's probably going to be around a long time so I better be real careful when I pick a name." Actually, oddly, in the 90's edition wars, if you used the 3d6 in order method, you were on the 1E side. Because that was hardcore and 2E of course was for sissies. This despite the method being explicitly included in 2E but not 1E.
Another reality of playing back then is, you couldn't just hop online to amazon or drivethru RPG and order whatever books you wanted. You had to go to the LGS, and you may have been limited by what they had in stock. Me personally, I was also a kid then. I had no job. No steady source of income. No car to get to the local game store. I had to take whatever I could get. My grandmother picked up books for me whenever she found them at a thrift shop or a yard sale or flea market. And I'm guessing most people had similar experiences, where you just didn't play any one pure edition. It just wasn't practical with the resources we had then. Ideas from OD&D, BECMI, 1E, and 2E would thus mingle in ways people trying to sort it out in hindsight.
20 years from now, 1E will still be among the rotation of RPGs I run. And no matter how closely I stick to the text, and no matter how much the campaign embodies the feel of back in the day, I'm certain it will be drastically different and alien from the expectations of anyone 20 years from now who's fully read and absorbed the game.
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1100347Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
True Grit
Casino Royale
The Departed
No Way Out
The Fly
3:10 to Yuma
Little Shop of Horrors
Scarface
When I think of these, I think of the remake.
Also, some you listed HAVE no remake. There is no remake of Gone With the Wind for example.
Quote from: Lunamancer;1101967I can tell you what I'm already noticing. Hindsight is definitely not 20/20.
When you "have all the information"--like I can easily find bootleg copies of 1E and 2E then go and compare and contrast. Back in the day when those editions were live, I'd say it's pretty rare for anyone to own EVERYTHING. So the perceptions of those differences have changed.
For the longest time, a lot of people thought 2E invented THAC0. I think this one has been pretty well debunked. But it does illustrate the point. You can easily make that mistake if you download all the texts and just not notice that weird sideways printed Appendix of the DMG which has "To Hit AC 0." There's zero chance of making that same mistake when you actually used THAC0 before 2E came out.
But I see other things pop up. Like "You're not playing 1E BtB if you generate stats using 3d6." Again, an easy mistake to make when you compare and contrast the texts. 3d6 is explicitly listed among the methods in 2E. It's not listed as a method in 1E. But of course 1E was "advanced" from regular D&D. The 3d6 method was the well known method at the time. So when I read the methods in the DMG, I notice that the methods in 1E are specifically called "alternatives." Alternatives to what? To what we've been doing all along. If you've got it in your head that 3d6 don't exist in 1E, "alternatives" is easily interpreted as "Well, they're alternatives to one another." It's also easy to misread that section in the PHB where it says it's difficult for a character survive without at least two scores of 15+ as instructions to use a more generous dicing method to ensure starting characters have that. Whereas I read it and say, "Okay, so when this character without those high scores dies, I shouldn't feel bad. I should feel really accomplishes if the character survives long-term. And if I do happen to roll at least two high stats, that character's probably going to be around a long time so I better be real careful when I pick a name." Actually, oddly, in the 90's edition wars, if you used the 3d6 in order method, you were on the 1E side. Because that was hardcore and 2E of course was for sissies. This despite the method being explicitly included in 2E but not 1E.
Another reality of playing back then is, you couldn't just hop online to amazon or drivethru RPG and order whatever books you wanted. You had to go to the LGS, and you may have been limited by what they had in stock. Me personally, I was also a kid then. I had no job. No steady source of income. No car to get to the local game store. I had to take whatever I could get. My grandmother picked up books for me whenever she found them at a thrift shop or a yard sale or flea market. And I'm guessing most people had similar experiences, where you just didn't play any one pure edition. It just wasn't practical with the resources we had then. Ideas from OD&D, BECMI, 1E, and 2E would thus mingle in ways people trying to sort it out in hindsight.
20 years from now, 1E will still be among the rotation of RPGs I run. And no matter how closely I stick to the text, and no matter how much the campaign embodies the feel of back in the day, I'm certain it will be drastically different and alien from the expectations of anyone 20 years from now who's fully read and absorbed the game.
20 years from now, I bet the tables running A D & D 1E games will be in the low hundreds, "worldwide"; if that many. Not knocking it, but a lot of the Grognards will be gone; and a lot of the OSR fans will likely be fawning over remakes of remakes, which continue to drift farther away from A D & D 1E, etc.
Quote from: Razor 007;110198720 years from now, I bet the tables running A D & D 1E games will be in the low hundreds, "worldwide"; if that many. Not knocking it, but a lot of the Grognards will be gone; and a lot of the OSR fans will likely be fawning over remakes of remakes, which continue to drift farther away from A D & D 1E, etc.
I don't like the remakes that much. But I didn't play the original and am rather young.
The Black Hack 2e is nothing like the older games, but is one of my favorite books. DCCRPG is OSR adjacent at best and looks like a blast. Stars Without Number Revised Edition is one of my favorites of the genre.
When I see a remake or retroclone, I'm wondering why I wouldn't just play the original. The reimagined games are what get me excited. OSR much more about what isn't in the rules, so when I see something stupid like descending AC or to-hit tables, I'm like "why would anyone want this clunk aside from pure nostalgia?"
Quote from: Rhedyn;1101993so when I see something stupid like descending AC or to-hit tables, I'm like "why would anyone want this clunk aside from pure nostalgia?"
Because a multiplication table is faster than any multiplication equation. Same for to-hit tables being faster than any to-hit equation; adding or otherwise. It's a single glance at something staring at me on the back of my DM screen. It may have made more sense when everyone carried peechees.
With the OSR; we all want a game that has everything we want, and nothing we don't. And since that doesn't exist, we keep on looking at new games...
Quote from: Brendan;1101604I wonder sometimes how much of this hunger isn't an outgrowth of the increasing digitization of our lives.
Digitisation & social media, removal from close kin, lack of marriage and especially lack of children are all factors. Though one of my keenest players has a Thai bride & a bunch of kids. :)
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1101606Yes.
It's actually easier for me to get players at my AD&D1e games than it used to be. As my good gamer friend said, "People don't have friends these days." People spend time on social media in search of connection, and the time they spend on social media deprives them of connections. So if you have an open game table, people will come.
I certainly had no problem getting players for my Classic D&D 2015-17 campaign, and most were in their early 20s. Funnily enough I have mostly older players in my current 5e D&D campaigns, it has brought a lot of ex-players back to the hobby.
Let's not forget that the older generation of boardgamers have played computer games a lot when they were younger and having explored that, some of them simply have moved on to explore different types of games. I mean CP2077 looks great but it gameplay-wise it looks really old.
Quote from: EOTB;1101994Because a multiplication table is faster than any multiplication equation. Same for to-hit tables being faster than any to-hit equation; adding or otherwise. It's a single glance at something staring at me on the back of my DM screen. It may have made more sense when everyone carried peechees.
It's a whole extra page to look at for what basic addition could cover.
Quote from: Rhedyn;1102030It's a whole extra page to look at for what basic addition could cover.
For some people, simple calculation is easier. For others, a simple table lookup is easier.
Why is it discussions in this hobby never seem aware of divergent styles and tastes or design trade-offs? :)
Quote from: Armchair Gamer;1102031For some people, simple calculation is easier. For others, a simple table lookup is easier.
Why is it discussions in this hobby never seem aware of divergent styles and tastes or design trade-offs? :)
Oh sure divergent styles are fine. Almost no innovations from PbtA apply to any RPG I would play.
I don't recognize to-hit tables as a proper "divergent style" it's just clunky. Now if your RPG wants to do both, then I can roll with that. Seems like wasted pages to me, but I'll deal.
As a rule though, I just don't buy OSR with to-hit tables. That kind of thinking is trapped in the past rather than trying to capture the philosophy and spirit behind OSR. I have the Rules Cyclopedia, I don't need anything just blindly re-treading old ground.
Quote from: Razor 007;110198720 years from now, I bet the tables running A D & D 1E games will be in the low hundreds, "worldwide"; if that many.
Something similar to this was said... 20 years ago. Of course that was back when roleplaying as a whole was dying. Again.
20 years from now, we will have flying cars, commercial fusion power, bases on Mars, vat-grown meat that doesn't require killing a calf, Afghanistan and Iraq will be flourishing peaceful democracies, and nobody will be playing AD&D1e. Right?
Old grognards are not necessary to play AD&D1e. But what old grognards
are necessary for is perspective: understanding that while many things change, many things stay the same. We've lived long enough to have seen the promises of big quick change and everything we know and like being tossed aside, and then seeing that things move rather more slowly than promised.
There will always be a significant number of people who are interested in social creative hobbies, and a significant number of
them will be interested in doing so in a simple and accessible way. Game groups, whatever they are playing, continue to be built one enthusiastic GM and one keen player at a time.
Quote from: Armchair Gamer;1102031For some people, simple calculation is easier. For others, a simple table lookup is easier.
Why is it discussions in this hobby never seem aware of divergent styles and tastes or design trade-offs? :)
Also, a side effect of having more information more readily available is that the skill of memorization atrophies. In 1982, I had players that had memorized some of the charts from having used them so often (and not infrequently writing sections of them onto their hand-written character sheet). I could play the same game now, but the players wouldn't memorize something they can lookup in their own book or online.
There are still people for whom the chart is easier, but they are less likely to use it even so.
Quote from: Steven Mitchell;1102134Also, a side effect of having more information more readily available is that the skill of memorization atrophies. In 1982, I had players that had memorized some of the charts from having used them so often (and not infrequently writing sections of them onto their hand-written character sheet). I could play the same game now, but the players wouldn't memorize something they can lookup in their own book or online.
There are still people for whom the chart is easier, but they are less likely to use it even so.
People sure do memorise a lot of random stuff. When my son was young he and I memorised all of the Thomas the Tank Engine family but I doubt that I could rattle them all off now.
Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1100347Karate Kid
Conan the Barbarian
Fame
Clash of the Titans
Planet of the Apes
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Rollerball
Gone With The Wind
Total Recall
When you think of these, do you think of the original or the remake? And we could think of many others where most people never even heard of the remake...
D&D is the same.
The only remake on that list that I liked was Rollerball.
It's gotta be Willy Wonka and the Chocolate factory with Gene Wilder.
Anything late 60s/early 70s with Charleton Heston.
AD&D 2e will be remembered as the happiest gaming days, (where all was abundance, from settings to table rules, and the interwebz were still at 1.0, and puritanical harridans were pushed back into their cauldrons amid a sex-positive renaissance :p)!
:) And the new children will play, gawking at the Elmore-esque AquaNet bouffonts ("So that's where the ozone went..."), and lush diversity of artwork (what's "physical media?"), and wonder, "Grandxer of the antiquated pronouns, was there really such a beautiful age to play everything from paladins and princesses to psionicist sword & planet hellscapes, where the system could fade away from Tax-Form System Mastery, and there was no Mixed-Economy of the SpeakingStick?"
:cool: And we shall say, "Yes child, it was a better time. It was when fun of one's own heart's desire was allowed for we knew there were no real world consequences from hurt 'fee-fees' while playing Let's Pretend, and people had a grounded perspective... For the outside world was a commonplace thing with which to engage, and coping skills were necessarily developed so as to function at a basic level." :cool:
Quote from: Opaopajr;1102264AD&D 2e will be remembered as the happiest gaming days, (where all was abundance, from settings to table rules, and the interwebz were still at 1.0, and puritanical harridans were pushed back into their cauldrons amid a sex-positive renaissance :p)!
:) And the new children will play, gawking at the Elmore-esque AquaNet bouffonts ("So that's where the ozone went..."), and lush diversity of artwork (what's "physical media?"), and wonder, "Grandxer of the antiquated pronouns, was there really such a beautiful age to play everything from paladins and princesses to psionicist sword & planet hellscapes, where the system could fade away from Tax-Form System Mastery, and there was no Mixed-Economy of the SpeakingStick?"
:cool: And we shall say, "Yes child, it was a better time. It was when fun of one's own heart's desire was allowed for we knew there were no real world consequences from hurt 'fee-fees' while playing Let's Pretend, and people had a grounded perspective... For the outside world was a commonplace thing with which to engage, and coping skills were necessarily developed so as to function at a basic level." :cool:
***pulls out handkerchief and dabs the corner of his eye***
Man, that was beautiful.
Quote from: Opaopajr;1102264[...] For the outside world was a commonplace thing with which to engage, and coping skills were necessarily developed so as to function at a basic level." :cool:
Never heard of it!
All of this assumes that in 20 years we will even be allowed to play RPGs anymore as they have all been deemed problematic. And those dice are choking hazards for adults! And the horrible white male plays them so they just gotta all go. Its for your own good. Think of the children! You monster!
Joking, well I hope its joking, aside... I think like most any game, that somehow, some way people will keep playing them long long after they ended.
Or groups will rediscover them and the appeal they have to certain types of gamers.
Quote from: Omega;1102524All of this assumes that in 20 years we will even be allowed to play RPGs anymore as they have all been deemed problematic. And those dice are choking hazards for adults! And the horrible white male plays them so they just gotta all go. Its for your own good. Think of the children! You monster!
Joking, well I hope its joking, aside... I think like most any game, that somehow, some way people will keep playing them long long after they ended.
Or groups will rediscover them and the appeal they have to certain types of gamers.
Ha, you discount the "D&D Underground". They'll have to drag us out of our secret games one player at a time. :)
We shall initiate the chosen by the gauntlet of dice bag beatings while they "walk the path of d4s" barefoot! :mad: After that, all troubles will pale in comparison. :cool: Blood in, blood out!
Quote from: Opaopajr;1102538We shall initiate the chosen by the gauntlet of dice bag beatings while they "walk the path of d4s" barefoot! :mad: After that, all troubles will pale in comparison. :cool: Blood in, blood out!
I'm WAY ahead of my time then.
I think I'll wait a couple decades before giving an answer.
I'm surprised WotC didn't do anything to commemorate the 30th Anniversary of AD&D 2nd Edition. Then again, maybe I'm not so surprised.