Quote from: Graytung;1100530I'm not sure they even will be...

I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...

And even if it doesn't, ttrpgs are likely to suffer a downfall in popularity when and if the next technological break-thru occurs in entertainment, if it does... VR right now is just shit if you've ever tried those lame simulations available at any convention. Given 10 years it could develop into something akin to what MMO's were in the 2000's and I'd argue table top was less popular during that time because of it.

Even so, the OSR is such a niche taste and isn't reliant on any particular company to exist that I think it will always have some activity regardless of the time... so that means those old school games will be played, though just like the OSR games will no doubt evolve, not go away. I can imagine that mainstream companies are bound to get sold, liquidated, or become exclusively software companies at some point however. I mean, when A.I. can GM your games in any style you want... screw book format rpgs, or even having to socialize with real people anymore, right?

Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?

Well one problem with that theory is if microtransactions aren't made illegal, video games will be full of them.

So your AI GM will be constantly reminding you about the sale on loot crate keys to open the premium treasure you got from the dungeon. Because that shit makes tons of money and it doesn't not matter if you don't like it because some mentally ill whale is going to spend 10 grand on it.

Capitalism optimizes to what makes the most profit and microtransactions make the most profit. Any business venture than can include them will include them. This is why MMOs died. They exist to prey on a few whales and really do not need anyone else playing if the whales are happy.

So I see a niche for RPGs as something small companies can pump out for niche audiences and sustain themselves.

Rolling dice, telling stories, and letting the dice decide the outcome; will live on, even if modern sports and entertainment mediums fail.  There will always be pockets of people playing some type of RPG.  All one needs; is a few dice, and some imagination.

Even during times of hardship; people will long for an outlet, to take their minds off of their troubles.

Quote from: JRT;1100444While computer technology makes it easier to save stuff--this isn't an absolute.  There is still an entropy element.  Some items may not be preserved, or new formats will replace old--like VHS to DVD.  It may be easier with Digitial but, for instance, let's say 50 years from now the PDF is made obsolete by another format--not every RPG book will be transferred to the new format, for instance.  You could lose a primary archive in the future, etc.  Are things easier to copy--yes.  Does that mean everything will survive.  Probably not.  This chance increases based on how popular the item is, and how much time passes.

Granted there is some risk of this, but I think it's actually pretty small. While the popular format may change, there will still be readers for any previously popular format. Graphics programs still do GIF and BMP even though most pictures are in other formats these days. And most formats these days have open source programs that can read them meaning we don't have to rely on a rights holder continuing the format.

QuoteAs far as there will always be people interested in the older--that is true and will always remain true.  But how many is the big question?  For instance, there are fans of the older comic strips but it is a far pale to how they used to be.  Lake Geneva, WI, has a statue of Andy Gump.  How many people remember who that character is?  At one point, he was part of a very big comic strip known far and wide in the US.  Lil' Abner was so popular at one point the Shmoo merchandise was as popular as Snoopy merchandise was in the 70s, and now I'm seeing signs that people are forgetting the Peanuts characters, only remembering them from merchandise and the traditional Holiday specials.  How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")?  Once the first and second generation RPGers are gone, how powerful will be the appeal of a strictly interpreted original D&D or Traveller, etc?  I'm not predicting 10% interest--more like some fraction of 1% thereof.

Doesn't have to be a big audience to keep it alive.

QuoteEntropy eventually I think will take care of the rest--our current civilization is likely to radically transform in a couple of centuries, or a new civilization will replace the old.  This isn't a gloom and doom apocalypse view, its based on history and how long nation-states and cultures survive.  I have to wonder if back in ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, or Incan civilization there was something akin to an RPG but it didn't survive since 99% of the trivial things didn't pass the test of time, as all that remains is stone.

Obviously we can never know, but I sort of doubt it. But today's world has much better communication and archiving technology, and one thing that communication technology has done is that a huge portion of the worlds population speaks at least one of a small set of languages such that ideas can be shared world-wide with ease. And note that we can still read Greek and Latin texts. Sure, we lost the Egyptian and Incan languages (though we've decoded a lot of their texts), but those were also smaller cultures.

QuoteWhat I always wonder about is this.  Why do people care so much if the original rules or things outlive them?  Is the RPG so important in the grand scheme of things that you worry about the possibility of it not existing 3-4 generations from now?  If your a true historian and are actively trying to preserve this niche, I understand, and I see that as noble, but why do so many folks get agnst-ridden over the possibility that the stuff they loved won't survive a generation or century from now.  Some of that is inevitable.  Why worry about this--just enjoy the now and not worry about if this stuff exists in the far future.[/quote[
Who's angst ridden about this? I don't lie awake worrying, it's just when it's brought up, I have confidence the hobby will still exist in some form, and at least the more popular and significant games will still be around somewhere.

QuoteIn a true apocalyptic scenario--it's not the existence of documents that is more of a concern, it would be the free time and priorities of what needs to be preserved.  Assuming we were talking about a situation like, say, we reached peak oil, and then there was a sudden lack of resources, and we had to move back to a more local economy, etc...a scenario like that means that people would have less free time.  If 95% of the population were forced to work as laborers, and survival takes precedence in folks lives, playing tabletop RPGs is probably going to have a much lower priority than what we have in our society.

It's true people might have less free time, but they will still have some. And some will find RPGs a great way to use that free time since it easily allows them to make up their own entertainment.

QuoteIt's funny you talk about Chess, because Chess took a few centuries to stabilize into the game we know and love today.  So I think D&D will go through several iterations and likely stabilize a bit when the copyrights on the original set of rules start expiring.  It will be a mix of the first several editions.  Maybe the original games are still available but I suspect it will become more of overall guidelines.  I doubt people will worry as much today as they do about preserving the original rules or following them strictly.

Chess also developed in an era of much lower communication technology. Today, a new idea is spread wide in but a few days. On the one hand, that allows faster change, on the other, it also means that things will stabilize quicker. I think with that, there will be bursts of major change which then stabilize quickly, followed by periods of more stability. And who knows, the hobby might eventually actually grow out of a new edition every few years. But I'm also not sure how much that matters.

However unfortunate it may be, 20 years in the future D&D will be dead; its legacy forgotten, reduced to rubble and then again to ash. Massive AI-driven, Ogre-like war machines will roll across the country side decimating everything in their path. In the end, roleplaying games will become extinct. Second fiddle to survival.

Save for, that is, the one heralded by the massive cyber-pyramid, its ever watchful eye/lens scanning the blasted lands and bringing shelter and enlightenment to the beleaguered survivors... yes, indeed it will be GURPS that is played proudly by all the wasteland cults, biker gangs, and in every remaining sheltered community alike! It will rise again, the last form of recreation on Earth! Unification awaits, hear me! Behold the prophecy and do not stray the path! Join me brothers in accelerating us towards the final salvation! Look to Kromm and weep in ecstasy! Clutch the Holy Texts close, for they must survive The End for the prophecy to be fulfilled!

Ahem...

Quote from: Rhedyn;1100533Well one problem with that theory is if microtransactions aren't made illegal, video games will be full of them.

So your AI GM will be constantly reminding you about the sale on loot crate keys to open the premium treasure you got from the dungeon. Because that shit makes tons of money and it doesn't not matter if you don't like it because some mentally ill whale is going to spend 10 grand on it.

Capitalism optimizes to what makes the most profit and microtransactions make the most profit. Any business venture than can include them will include them. This is why MMOs died. They exist to prey on a few whales and really do not need anyone else playing if the whales are happy.

So I see a niche for RPGs as something small companies can pump out for niche audiences and sustain themselves.

Um, I don't like the idea of being called a freeloader by my A.I. GM.... shit.

The Gen X bulge of gamers who started in the 80s will still very much be here in 20 years, average age of 65-70. They will still remember the OSR like it was yesterday and revere their youth.
Now, in 50 years, that's another story. But pointless to speculate as DnD may be haram, or we may be all brains in vats or our grandchildren may be riding the wasteland in hotrods.

Quote from: Graytung;1100530Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?

How can you have an AI with a Scottish accent that is not racist?

That thing will be roaming around the internet just looking for other AIs to headbutt with the added advantage that no one will be able to understand what its trying to say.

Quote from: Graytung;1100530I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...

The world actually ended in 2012 because ancient Mayans would not put us wrong, would they?

I think the imagery of 1e AD&D will still be iconic in 20 years, especially the PHB demon idol cover. And a few other things like the cover of the 1e Forgotten Realms Grey Box. And most of all the red dragon on the 1983 Mentzer Basic Set.

Quote from: JRT;1100444How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")?  

A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica.

It is a slightly odd feeling going to a Gloryhammer concert in London & being possibly the oldest person in the room!

Quote from: The_Shadow;1100596The Gen X bulge of gamers who started in the 80s will still very much be here in 20 years, average age of 65-70. They will still remember the OSR like it was yesterday and revere their youth.
Now, in 50 years, that's another story. But pointless to speculate as DnD may be haram, or we may be all brains in vats or our grandchildren may be riding the wasteland in hotrods.

I don't follow your age estimate. From my view, I'm on the young end of the old guard. I was born in 1970 and was in pre-school when D&D came out. I think the center of the first generation were in high school or college when D&D came out, making them about 10-15 years older than me. I'll be 70 in twenty years, and they'll be in their 80s.

D&D had it's peak of popularity around 1980. In 1982, there was Mazes and Monsters, the D&D cartoon, and D&D being played in E.T. But by the time those came out, the peak had already passed. After that, D&D mostly faded into obscurity as far as the public consciousness, and would only surface again decades later.

Most of my friends and family are only aware of D & D because "I" care about it.  I had to remind them that it existed a few years ago.

Quote from: S'mon;1100608A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica.

On the flip side of that, a girl who works at the place where I get coffee every day who is a good 20 years younger than me appears to be one of the world's biggest 80s Metal fans. I'm pretty sure she wasn't alive when most of the albums she plays at the counter were released.

Quote from: Dimitrios;1100613On the flip side of that, a girl who works at the place where I get coffee every day who is a good 20 years younger than me appears to be one of the world's biggest 80s Metal fans. I'm pretty sure she wasn't alive when most of the albums she plays at the counter were released.

Which reminds me - in 1989 vinyl was absolutely dead, right?  Young kids never go back to an older format because of its feel.

Quote from: S'mon;1100608A friend of mine the same age seems faintly amazed that I prefer modern European Heavy Metal (Sabaton, Battle Beast) to the stuff that was current when we were 12 - keeps telling me I should be listening to Metallica.

As headbangers, we are incredibly spoiled right now with a new Golden Age of Metal. As much as I love the metal of the 80s, I couldn't imagine limiting myself when there is so much incredibly awesome new music by both new and established bands. My main playlists are probably 50% Euro, 40% American and 10% Other (since we now have Maori Metal with Alien Weaponry, Indian Metal with Bloodywood, and Mongolian Rock with the HU and more).

Quote from: S'mon;1100608It is a slightly odd feeling going to a Gloryhammer concert in London & being possibly the oldest person in the room!

Glory! Hammer! Hot damn I love that band so much. I'm definitely the oldest guy in most of the pits these days for almost any band, except for Iron Maiden shows which brings out the Old Grey Ones. What's crazy was the Helloween Pumpkins United show where I assumed it was gonna be all geezers and instead there was an army of young people who found Helloween via streaming services.

Hey, gang? What will be remembered 20 years from now will be what is good and what made an impact. Some things will be timeless because they are great, but some things will be timeless because the suck so badly.