Quote from: Scrivener of Doom;1100414Actually, the answer to the first question is Shadow of the Demon Lord.

  Hmm...good point. I should have said 'which of the two'? But I was leafing through Art and Arcana the other day and was reminded that there is a portion of the fanbase that seems nostalgic from the time when D&D was 'edgy' and 'rebellious.'

Quote from: JRT;1100413I think comparing D&D to movies is a bit flawed.  Movie's are individual stories and can be seen in their entirety, are a whole unit.  Games are a different animal--the RPG is a hybrid of text prose and collections of logical and mathematical rules.  It is constantly changing over time, and it's not the same experience as watching a movie vs watching a remake of a movie.

I think D&D itself as long as it's published will continue to slowly change.  The most popular form of the game will be the current version, unless they screw things up and make a radical change the audience doesn't want.  The company can keep older rulesets in print but just because the material is available doesn't mean it will be popular.



While others went "whoa" to this statement, I sort of agree with the sentiment.  I don't think things will go that bad in 20 years, but I do see a lot of people worried about if their favorite form of entertainment will survive when, in the grand scheme of things, that is trivial crap compared to what may happen.  People worry if D&D will still be played 100 years from now, and in the meantime, whole elements of our society or culture could be radically different by then!  War, famine, disease, collapse of the government, collapse of an economy, change in social priorities so we don't have a lot of time for games, change in perspective, change it technology so traditional tabletop RPGs are supplanted by other things, etc.  I don't mean to sound grim, etc., but considering how much society can change in a sort time, I wonder why people obsess over the trivial.

So this is a valid point. Any my thought is that if the society of 100 years from now still has computer technology, anything now available digitally will still be available. And if we lose computer technology? Enough folks recognize the importance of books that many things available now in print will be preserved. And when you consider what RPGs are, and what resources you need to actually play them? People will still be playing them in some form pretty much no matter what. Randomizers (dice) can be made from almost anything. Almost anything could be used to represent things like character information (abilities, hit points) that we don't even need pencil and paper technology to be preserved.

As to what will be remembered? Again, with digital technology, almost everything will be preserved and thus remembered at some level. And given the existence of a game, someone will play it. Look at all the old movies and tv shows that are available, folks are watching them, and they are presented to be watched because someone remembered them. Sure, new editions and remakes of games and movies may steal 90% or more of the audience, but there will always be an audience for the older stuff and it won't just be old folks and nostalgia.

Quote from: JRT;1100413While others went "whoa" to this statement, I sort of agree with the sentiment.  I don't think things will go that bad in 20 years, but I do see a lot of people worried about if their favorite form of entertainment will survive when, in the grand scheme of things, that is trivial crap compared to what may happen.  People worry if D&D will still be played 100 years from now, and in the meantime, whole elements of our society or culture could be radically different by then!  War, famine, disease, collapse of the government, collapse of an economy, change in social priorities so we don't have a lot of time for games, change in perspective, change it technology so traditional tabletop RPGs are supplanted by other things, etc.  I don't mean to sound grim, etc., but considering how much society can change in a sort time, I wonder why people obsess over the trivial.

I predict that in 20 years we will still have people worrying that everything will collapse in the next 20 years.

I think in an apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.

Quote from: Razor 007;1100431I think in a apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.

Yeah you can't wipe your butt with a disk drive.

Quote from: Cave Bear;1100379The question is based on some childishly optimistic assumptions. There's a lot of terrible shit that can potentially happen in the next twenty years. Remembering D&D might not be such a priority.

In the 1980s, people were worried about the Cold War escalating into Global Thermonuclear War. It was a risk of global extinction - and yet, here we are, and on the average, a lot more people are living in peaceful, democratic and well-to-do countries than ever (although with the nukes still out there in their silos). Perhaps we can resolve our problems after all.

WRT the main topic - some editions of D&D have by now become classics; and classics have a lot of longevity. B/X will probably be looked on as the most accessible and flexible classic D&D version, so that one will be played a lot - it will be "Classic D&D" like chess is "Chess". The rest are slightly more speculative. There will be visceral immersive computer varieties, but the tabletop game will survive because of the human element. When everything will be perfect and smoothless in computers, people will miss and crave the authenticity and warmth of the human touch, the way we look at antique wooden furniture and hand-made items.

The rule set is just a tool, but how enjoyable the content is it produces will determine if it remains used.  I think so long as D&D of any stripe is popular and recognizably similar, people will go back to the early rule sets to try out content in its native format.  D&D is just math and presentation.  It doesn't evolve except in the minds of people with emotionally strong reactions to previous versions and their experience with them.  Someone in 2050 will be able to pick up an AD&D book and use it just like someone in 1980 did.

Quote from: ffilz;1100419So this is a valid point. Any my thought is that if the society of 100 years from now still has computer technology, anything now available digitally will still be available. And if we lose computer technology? Enough folks recognize the importance of books that many things available now in print will be preserved. And when you consider what RPGs are, and what resources you need to actually play them? People will still be playing them in some form pretty much no matter what. Randomizers (dice) can be made from almost anything. Almost anything could be used to represent things like character information (abilities, hit points) that we don't even need pencil and paper technology to be preserved.

As to what will be remembered? Again, with digital technology, almost everything will be preserved and thus remembered at some level. And given the existence of a game, someone will play it. Look at all the old movies and tv shows that are available, folks are watching them, and they are presented to be watched because someone remembered them. Sure, new editions and remakes of games and movies may steal 90% or more of the audience, but there will always be an audience for the older stuff and it won't just be old folks and nostalgia.

While computer technology makes it easier to save stuff--this isn't an absolute.  There is still an entropy element.  Some items may not be preserved, or new formats will replace old--like VHS to DVD.  It may be easier with Digitial but, for instance, let's say 50 years from now the PDF is made obsolete by another format--not every RPG book will be transferred to the new format, for instance.  You could lose a primary archive in the future, etc.  Are things easier to copy--yes.  Does that mean everything will survive.  Probably not.  This chance increases based on how popular the item is, and how much time passes.

As far as there will always be people interested in the older--that is true and will always remain true.  But how many is the big question?  For instance, there are fans of the older comic strips but it is a far pale to how they used to be.  Lake Geneva, WI, has a statue of Andy Gump.  How many people remember who that character is?  At one point, he was part of a very big comic strip known far and wide in the US.  Lil' Abner was so popular at one point the Shmoo merchandise was as popular as Snoopy merchandise was in the 70s, and now I'm seeing signs that people are forgetting the Peanuts characters, only remembering them from merchandise and the traditional Holiday specials.  How many people listen to music past their own personal golden age (what the liked in their teens and what they listen to as "oldies")?  Once the first and second generation RPGers are gone, how powerful will be the appeal of a strictly interpreted original D&D or Traveller, etc?  I'm not predicting 10% interest--more like some fraction of 1% thereof.

Entropy eventually I think will take care of the rest--our current civilization is likely to radically transform in a couple of centuries, or a new civilization will replace the old.  This isn't a gloom and doom apocalypse view, its based on history and how long nation-states and cultures survive.  I have to wonder if back in ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, or Incan civilization there was something akin to an RPG but it didn't survive since 99% of the trivial things didn't pass the test of time, as all that remains is stone.

What I always wonder about is this.  Why do people care so much if the original rules or things outlive them?  Is the RPG so important in the grand scheme of things that you worry about the possibility of it not existing 3-4 generations from now?  If your a true historian and are actively trying to preserve this niche, I understand, and I see that as noble, but why do so many folks get agnst-ridden over the possibility that the stuff they loved won't survive a generation or century from now.  Some of that is inevitable.  Why worry about this--just enjoy the now and not worry about if this stuff exists in the far future.

Quote from: Razor 007;1100431I think in a apocalyptic scenario, hard copies of everything would be preferable to digital copies.

In a true apocalyptic scenario--it's not the existence of documents that is more of a concern, it would be the free time and priorities of what needs to be preserved.  Assuming we were talking about a situation like, say, we reached peak oil, and then there was a sudden lack of resources, and we had to move back to a more local economy, etc...a scenario like that means that people would have less free time.  If 95% of the population were forced to work as laborers, and survival takes precedence in folks lives, playing tabletop RPGs is probably going to have a much lower priority than what we have in our society.

Quote from: Melan;1100437WRT the main topic - some editions of D&D have by now become classics; and classics have a lot of longevity. B/X will probably be looked on as the most accessible and flexible classic D&D version, so that one will be played a lot - it will be "Classic D&D" like chess is "Chess".

It's funny you talk about Chess, because Chess took a few centuries to stabilize into the game we know and love today.  So I think D&D will go through several iterations and likely stabilize a bit when the copyrights on the original set of rules start expiring.  It will be a mix of the first several editions.  Maybe the original games are still available but I suspect it will become more of overall guidelines.  I doubt people will worry as much today as they do about preserving the original rules or following them strictly.

Quote from: Razor 007;1100345How will peoples' opinions change, in hindsight?

20 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.

There are odd kids that worship Gygax, and wish they knew him. So there will always be that thing, and all that it comes with.

Quote from: Shawn Driscoll;1100467There are odd kids that worship Gygax, and wish they knew him. So there will always be that thing, and all that it comes with.

Gygax and Arneson probably seem like dinosaurs already, to a large portion of modern gamers.

I have a healthy amount of admiration for what they accomplished.  They laid down a great foundation for others to build upon.

Realistic and immersive virtual reality will be a thing in 20 years. That's how most people will "play D&D."

As for tabletop RPGs, some version of B/X will be "popular" with that segment who enjoy old school games.

Quote from: Razor 007;110034520 years from now, many of the grognards will no longer be with us.

Renew! Renew! Renew!

Quote from: Razor 007;1100468Gygax and Arneson probably seem like dinosaurs already, to a large portion of modern gamers.

I have a healthy amount of admiration for what they accomplished.  They laid down a great foundation for others to build upon.

More like for a future Hasbro owner to milk to death. See Star Wars and Marvel.

Who says there is another edition after 5th?

Idk if Hasbro has changed their "last chance" policy.

I'm not sure they even will be...

I was told today that the world is going to end in 10 years...

And even if it doesn't, ttrpgs are likely to suffer a downfall in popularity when and if the next technological break-thru occurs in entertainment, if it does... VR right now is just shit if you've ever tried those lame simulations available at any convention. Given 10 years it could develop into something akin to what MMO's were in the 2000's and I'd argue table top was less popular during that time because of it.

Even so, the OSR is such a niche taste and isn't reliant on any particular company to exist that I think it will always have some activity regardless of the time... so that means those old school games will be played, though just like the OSR games will no doubt evolve, not go away. I can imagine that mainstream companies are bound to get sold, liquidated, or become exclusively software companies at some point however. I mean, when A.I. can GM your games in any style you want... screw book format rpgs, or even having to socialize with real people anymore, right?

Can an A.I. with a scottish accent be racist?