Quote from: Dominus NoxWhat really bothers me about this is that we used to have, what Lincoln called, the "marketplace of ideas" in which anyone could float out any idea and let the people decide about things.  It was a memetic competition that encouraged people to do research, present facts, make cases, etc.

This country has never had an unfettered marketplace of ideas.  Just ask Wilhem Reich.

Quote from: WerekoalaOne interesting thing about oil consumption that hit me when all this flap began, especially when it comes to drilling for new sources, like in ANWR.

Envorinmentalists won't let us explore/exploit oil resources in the US, or at least always fight it tooth and nail, backed up by the Democrats.

We're still using oil like crazy, lots and lots of it imported.

So - when the oil runs out over THERE, we'll still have lots OVER HERE.

Happy days are here again! Yeah Sierra Club! Yay Democrats! :haw:

We now return to our regularly scheduled name-calling...

To put a serious slant on your spurious post, marsupial, the fact is that we should not be opening up new oil sources, because they'll run out too. We should be developing replacements.

Quote from: Dominus NoxTo put a serious slant on your spurious post, marsupial, the fact is that we should not be opening up new oil sources, because they'll run out too. We should be developing replacements.

Its not spurious, its factual - if we're not using it, it'll still be there when the rest run out.

Now, that said, then yes - we need to work on other sources. I'm just saying that we'll have our own reserves to fall back on if/when the time comes.

Quote from: WerekoalaIts not spurious, its factual - if we're not using it, it'll still be there when the rest run out.

Now, that said, then yes - we need to work on other sources. I'm just saying that we'll have our own reserves to fall back on if/when the time comes.

No offense meant by spurious.

Quote from: jrientsThis country has never had an unfettered marketplace of ideas.  Just ask Wilhem Reich.

Even in the marketplace of ideas, bullshit is only good for fertiliser.

The problem with these discussions is that they make bad assumptions.  On the face of it, it appears reasonable to determine the "crash date" by estimating current worldwide oil reserves and extrapolating from current consumption trends.  It seems like a high school math problem -- "If there are X gallons of oil in the world, and current consumption is Y per year and increasing by Z% annually, how long will it take before all the oil is gone?"

Reasonable sounding, but flawed.  You are effectively assuming that consumption will continue full speed until the last drop of oil is gone, then the world will screech to a halt.  This is of course ridiculous: oil will become increasingly expensive as reserves shrink and demand grows.  There will be no "day of reckoning" when suddenly all the fuel runs out.  Instead, over a period of many years oil will become increasingly expensive, and market forces will push people to other sources.

That makes it sound very neat and nice. Probably you had a graph in your mind as you wrote that, supply-demand differential vs innovation, or something.

Unfortunately, economies are not as neat as that, because they involve human beings. Human beings do things like Concorde and Iraq, persisting when it's obviously lost and failed. They gamble. They rationalise.

So as the price of oil rises, you probably won't get people looking for alternate sources of energy, you'll get them looking for alternate sources of oil. Countries will invade countries with oil reserves. Natural gas will be turned to oil. Then coal will be turned to oil. Then wood. Supplies will jump up and down. People will make economic plans on having X amount of oil, and if they find they've X-1 amount, will be lost.

A drop of 5% in US oil supply in the 1970s caused a recession, and caused the US government to contemplate war against Iran. What will a drop of 10%, or 20% do?

There is no question that the human race will survive, and figure things out. The only question is how much suffering we'll have along the way. I find myself thinking of the Army's Seven P's: Proper Preparation and Planning Prevents Piss-Poor Performance.

We're not preparing or planning. We're leaving it to "market forces."

If "market forces" are so effective at deaing with big problems, why didn't we use them in WWII? Why did we have centrally-planned economies? Surely the laws of supply and demand, with the good old invisible hand of the marketplace, would have been enough to make sure we got enough rubber, oil and steel to make the weapons and recruit the men to make war? Why did we have conscription? Aren't army volunteers just responding to a kind of "market force" - supply of manpower, and demand for it?

"Market forces" are nothing supernatural. They are not God. Don't have faith in them. The market is simply a humans trading. If humans are imperfect and sometimes make bad decisions, then the market, too, must be imperfect and make bad decisions. When those bad decisions are about what kind of jeans should be fashionable, well it doesn't matter much. When the welfare of millions is the matter at hand...

The market is Azathoth.  Only fuckwits put their trust in idiot gods.

Quote from: WerekoalaIts not spurious, its factual - if we're not using it, it'll still be there when the rest run out.

Of course, relatively speaking, it's still a drop in the bucket compared to projected demand.  It'd be like switching to a reserve tank to get you to the next filling station...only there's no more filling stations.

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaOf course, relatively speaking, it's still a drop in the bucket compared to projected demand.  It'd be like switching to a reserve tank to get you to the next filling station...only there's no more filling stations.

!i!

Wow! That's about the best, most intelligent, perceptive, lucid and eloquent stances I've ever heard against relying on "oil reserves" as a solution to the energy issue.

I'm afraid I'm gonna have to steal it.

For my Kool-Aid is sweet, and makes a man feel mighty.

!i!