I only buy graphic novel compilations, much like a lot of my friends. Until there is a graphic novel, the series may as well not exist.

Quote from: danbuter;437489I only buy graphic novel compilations, much like a lot of my friends. Until there is a graphic novel, the series may as well not exist.

Hence my point about how they will wait for TPB numbers before the series is pulled.

No idea what exact criteria they're using to determine the "death knell" of a particular comic book series.

If we take the sales figures of the DC WoW comic series to be reliable, the number of copies sold per issue at the end of the series is at around 20% of the first issue.

If we extrapolate the 23,657 figure for the number of copies sold of D&D issue #0, then 20% of that is around 4731.  (ie.  Figures falling down to "Scooby Doo" numbers).

What's unknown is how much the WoW license cost DC.  Back in 2007, WoW was flying high in popularity.  Perhaps falling to less than 10,000 copies sold per issue, just isn't enough anymore to pay for the WoW license fee.

With a cover price of $2.99 and Diamond paying 40% of that, DC only sees $1.196 per copy.  With 10,000 copies sold per issue, DC only sees $11,986 revenue for an issue.

If Blizzard's WoW license fee was asking for something high like $10,000 per issue, then it's understandable that DC would eventually cancel the WoW comic series.  At around issue #13 of WoW, the number of copies sold was around 17,013.  This would bring DC around $1.196*(17,013) = $20,348 in revenue, of which almost half of the revenue goes straight to a $10,000 licensing fee.

In 2010-2011, I wouldn't be surprised if the WoW comic license still commands a higher asking price than a D&D comic license.

Let's examine if the IDW D&D comic licensing fee is a hypothetical $5000 per issue.  With a $3.99 cover price and Diamond paying them 40% of that, IDW only sees $1.596 per copy sold.  In order to pay a $5000 fee per issue, they would have to sell at least 3133 copies per issue just to break even.

If the D&D license fee is $10,000 per issue, then IDW would have to sell at least 6266 copies per issue just to break even.  If this is indeed the case, then more than half of the revenue of D&D issue #2 is going straight to the licensing fee already.  (D&D issue #2 sold around 11,623 copies).

Just noticed this.

If one ignores IDW D&D issue #0, the drop (in the number of copies sold per issue) from IDW D&D issue #1 to issue #2 is around 25%.

As a point of comparison by examining the DC "World of Warcraft" comic figures, it also has an approximate 25% drop from issue #1 to issue #2.

For later issues in the DC "World of Warcraft" comic series, the drop is approximately 5% from one issue to the next.

Let's examine a time series starting from IDW D&D issue #2 figure of 11,623 copies sold, with a 5% drop from one issue to the next.

2 - 11,623
3 - 11,042
4 - 10,490
5 - 9965
6 - 9467
7 - 8994
8 - 8544
9 - 8116
10 - 7711
11 - 7325
12 - 6959
13 - 6611
14 - 6280
15 - 5967
16 - 5668
17 - 5385
18 - 5116
19 - 4860
20 - 4617
21 - 4386
22 - 4167
23 - 3958
24 - 3760
25 - 3572
26 - 3393
27 - 3224
28 - 3063

From a previous post, the "break even" numbers to pay for the WotC license fees are:

$10,000 fee - 6266 copies
$5000 fee - 3133 copies

What's unknown is how much margin IDW is requiring to keep a particular comic title in production.  The revenue has to cover both the license fee and whatever margin IDW wants, which covers things like printing costs, rent on buildings, electricity, telephone, internet, paying writers/artists/editors, profit, etc ...


If IDW is suicidal enough to do things with almost zero margin, then this IDW D&D series in principle could last to issue #28 if the WotC license fee is $5000 per issue, or to issue #14 if the WotC license fee is $10,000 per issue.

The OP guy isn't nearly talented enough as a writer to be the comic world's RPGPundit.

RPGPundit

One possible way to infer how much margin IDW wants from each issue, is to examine their poorer selling comic titles which still show up on Diamond's top 300+ list, and which are not licensed properties.

One such candidate IDW comic series from 2010 showed up, which fits into this criteria:  Kill Shakespeare.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_Shakespeare

From sales figures deduced from Diamond, these figures showed up for "Kill Shakespeare":

1 - 5,447 (232 in April 2010)
2 - 3,703 (279 in May 2010)
3 - 3,861 (290 in July 2010)
4 - 3,495 (277 in August 2010)

Issues #5 to #8 do not even show up in Diamond's top 300+ monthly listings.  This probably means issue #5 and later are selling less than 3,495 copies per issue.

With a $3.99 cover price and Diamond buying them at 40% of cover price, IDW sees $1.596 per copy.  So for issue #4, IDW saw a revenue of $1.596*(3495) = $5578.02.  For issue #1, IDW saw a revenue of $1.596*(5447) = $8693.41.

If issues #5 and later are selling less than 3133 copies, IDW will be seeing a revenue of less than $5000 per issue.

Since IDW is most likely not paying any licensing fees for "Kill Shakespeare", perhaps it wouldn't be surprising to see IDW expecting to see a minimum revenue of $5000 per issue.  Anything significantly lower than $5000 per issue, will probably see a series being canceled.

For a licensed IDW comic title, most likely IDW wants to see at least a $5000 margin after the licensing fee is subtracted out from the revenue.

If you want a good comparison of licenced sales of idw comics use Gi joe or Transformers as your guides both are hasbro properties and thus will be a good indicator of how low idw can let sales drop on licenced comics(though gi joe may be the better indicator for low sales than transformers).

One could also infer the margin other publishers want to see, by examining a poorly selling comic series which was canceled recently, and where the publisher owns the intellectual property.

One comic series which fits this criteria, is "Unknown Solider" by DC Comics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unknown_Soldier_%28DC_Comics%29

DC had various "Unknown Soldier" comic series back in the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's.

http://www.comicbookdb.com/search.php?form_search=unknown%20soldier&form_searchtype=FullSite

The recent "Unknown Soldier" series lasted 25 issues over 2008 -> 2010.  (It was announced on May 22, 2010 that the series was being canceled due to lackluster sales).

From sales figures deduced from Diamond, these figures showed up for the recent issues of "Unknown Soldier":

16 - 5,848 (221 in January 2010)
17 - 5,701 (216 in February 2010)
18 - 5,608 (255 in March 2010)
19 - 5,542 (230 in April 2010)
20 - *not in list*
21 - 5,371 (266 in June 2010)
22 - 5,238 (246 in July 2010)
23 - 5,090 (237 in August 2010)
24 - 5,100 (257 in October 2010)
25 - 4,962 (245 in November 2010)

With a cover price of $2.99 and Diamond paying 40% of cover price, DC will see $1.196 per copy.  For issue #25, DC will see a revenue of $1.196*(4962) = $5934.55.  For issue #24, DC will see a revenue of $1.196*(5100) = $6099.60.

In the case of DC Comics, perhaps they want to see at least a revenue of $6000 per issue for a comic series using their own properties (ie. not licensed).

Quote from: Broken-Serenity;437732If you want a good comparison of licenced sales of idw comics use Gi joe or Transformers as your guides both are hasbro properties and thus will be a good indicator of how low idw can let sales drop on licenced comics(though gi joe may be the better indicator for low sales than transformers).

The most recent "poorest" selling G.I. Joe titles are:

G.I. Joe Cobra II #11 - 8,008 (215 in December 2010)
G.I. Joe Cobra II #10 - 8,275 (188 in November 2010)

G.I. Joe Origins #22 - 8,597 (208 in December 2010)
G.I. Joe Origins #21 - 8,970 (178 in November 2010)

With a $3.99 cover price and Diamond buying them at 40% of cover price, IDW sees $1.596 per copy.  For G.I. Joe Cobra II #11, IDW sees $12,780.77 revenue.  For G.I. Joe Origins #22, IDW sees $13,720.81 revenue.

If we assume IDW wants to see at least a $5000 margin per issue, then the Hasbro licensing fee could be less than $7780.77 per issue (using the smallest revenue figure).

(Doing the same thing for the "poorest" selling IDW Transformers titles).

The most recent "poorest" selling Transformers titles are:

Transformers Sector 7 #4 - 5,236 (265 in December 2010)
Transformers Sector 7 #3 - 6,665 (212 in November 2010)
Transformers Sector 7 #2 - 7,100 (223 in October 2010)
Transformers Sector 7 #1 - 8,035 (225 in September 2010)

Transformers Sector 7 is a limited series of 5 issues.

http://tfwiki.net/wiki/Transformers:_Sector_7

With a $3.99 cover price and Diamond buying them at 40% of cover price, IDW sees $1.596 per copy.  For Transformers Sector 7 #4, IDW sees $8356.66 revenue.  For Transformers Sector 7 #3, IDW sees 10637.34 revenue.

If we assume IDW wants to see at least a $5000 margin per issue, then the Hasbro licensing fee could be less than $3356.66 per issue (using the smallest revenue figure).

It would probably help if we also knew exactly how the licencing works for comics as it may be a bulk fee per total sold each quarter or something.

Hmm ....

For Transformers Sector 7, there's a drastic drop of 21% from issue #3 to #4.

The revenue for issue #3 would be $10637.34.  If IDW wants a $5000 margin, then the Hasbro license fee could be less than $5637.34.

Wonder if Hasbro asks for a flat $5000 license fee per issue.

Quote from: Broken-Serenity;437740It would probably help if we also knew exactly how the licencing works for comics as it may be a bulk fee per total sold each quarter or something.

Of course.  This is the big unknown at this point, to individuals who aren't insiders nor versed in the standard comic book industry business practices.