take a look at a game called ring of red it takes a gander at the idea of alternate out comes to ww2 with retro mecha in the 60s

Quote from: Omega;904481One thought.

There is also the possibility that any stalling on the US and/or USSR  front would have allowed Japan to advance one of their horror weapons enough to use. Or used more competently.

Example: The Submersible Aircraft Carriers were sent to seed the US with plagues. But failed for various reasons. Imagine had they succeeded and the US was swept with some virulent disease.

yah there where only 2 of them the I-400 and the I-401 and the project had been scraped so only the 2 where built you'd need a lot more then 2 for that to be practical

Quote from: Lynn;904356Japanese infrastructure would have been far more damaged and the death toll significant. Eventually, with a high death toll on both sides, the US would win. At that point, I think the Emperor would have been executed. The US would prop up Japan as they did, but Japan would likely take longer to recover and US expectations would be less 'gentle'. It is possible that the seven year occupation time would have been much longer as a result.

A few dark speculations:

- Russia could have moved forward with the invasion of Hokkaido, and the US engages them there with forces from the south as well as the forces hidden in the Aleutian Islands. That could have lead directly to an ongoing  military conflict with Russia. If (speculatively) the two atomic weapons were created, the war with Russia could have been 'shut down' with dropping both (probably one on Vladivostok), and ramping up production of more.

- War rekindles in Europe against the Soviets, namely, Russia. East Germany and Soviet controlled Poland don't happen. Ukraine may have broken away.

- Okinawa and Hokkaido (as a result of the invasion) remain under the control of the USA - perhaps indefinitely. Japan would become an economic power house but the population wouldn't recover quite as quickly.

- A scaled down Cold War begins, but the face of communism is more that of China and a more aggressive Mongolia (Mongolia vs Soviet Union vs China). The Soviet Union is much smaller but survives World War 2.5.

- The Cold War would eventually cause the implosion of the Soviet Union, but the new Russia (or possibly "United Nations of Russia") would look significantly different

No Cold War at all. If the Soviets engaged the U.S. militarily, they would have been eradicated. Might have been for the best, really.

Quote from: Matt;904679No Cold War at all. If the Soviets engaged the U.S. militarily, they would have been eradicated. Might have been for the best, really.

I don't agree.  We didn't have the technology, then, to nuke the Russians out of action, and we didn't have remotely the manpower necessary to subdue the whole damn country, and WWII tired us out more than somewhat.

Quote from: Ravenswing;904774I don't agree.  We didn't have the technology, then, to nuke the Russians out of action, and we didn't have remotely the manpower necessary to subdue the whole damn country, and WWII tired us out more than somewhat.

Except that the Soviet economy was pushed as far it could go in the closing months of WW2 and the United States was still ramping up.

My view is that a plausible case can be made for a number of alternatives resulting from a WW3 between the US and the USSR right after World War 2. The most likely alternative is the Soviets making numerous gains at first, followed by the frontlines stabilizing followed by economic collapse and chaos throughout Soviet territory. Politically it would be chaos as what various countries want is to get on with rebuilding after the war. If the Soviet win it is because they scored enough early victories to break the Western Allies morale. Otherwise if the war drags on they are facing collapse.

Quote from: estar;904777Except that the Soviet economy was pushed as far it could go in the closing months of WW2 and the United States was still ramping up.

I don't think unless the Soviets did something really nasty to the US that the war would go on very long. The Soviets would realize their mistake quickly and try to negotiate terms. They'd be fighting the US (and its allies) in Europe and in the Pacific, and I also think some Soviet states would be thinking its time to switch sides (like Ukraine). And if we had some nukes handy, we would have used them against Soviet military targets.

Although the US was in a position of strength, I can't really see the US waging a wrathful war against the Soviets as against Japan without provocation stronger than the invasion of Hokkaido.

Quote from: Pete Nash;900872In my opinion not using nukes would have had absolutely no effect on what Japan ultimately did... which was to surrender to the US due to the USSR declaring war on Japan and beginning its offensive into Manchuria (at the US and GB's request). The US was in no military position to invade in August, needing another 2-3 months to ready itself for a land invasion.

Since the Soviets rolled up the entire 700k Kwantung army in under two weeks, it was inevitable they would have continued to sweep over mainland Japan via Hokkaido. Japan's fear of living under Soviet rule lead them to surrender to the US instead, in all likelihood saving hundreds of thousands of Japanese lives from voluntary and enforced suicides, as well as being conquered by the Soviets.

For those who are interested, I suggest watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTzLM6lInK0

How would the Soviets have invaded mainland Japan though at that time. Their Pacific Naval forces were not very strong tjhen and there were they? And more importantly did they have many if any Troop Ships and Landing Craft in the Pacific?

They USA however had years of experience island hopping and naval assaulting the Japanese held islands. The USA was in a much better positron to stage a large scale invasion of the Japanese home islands, even if it would take an extra month or three to prepare for the assault.

Quote from: estar;904777Except that the Soviet economy was pushed as far it could go in the closing months of WW2 and the United States was still ramping up.

My view is that a plausible case can be made for a number of alternatives resulting from a WW3 between the US and the USSR right after World War 2. The most likely alternative is the Soviets making numerous gains at first, followed by the frontlines stabilizing followed by economic collapse and chaos throughout Soviet territory. Politically it would be chaos as what various countries want is to get on with rebuilding after the war. If the Soviet win it is because they scored enough early victories to break the Western Allies morale. Otherwise if the war drags on they are facing collapse.

one other thing to keep in mind the Russians where running all most entirely on us equipment.
if we had gotten in a war with them just after the end of ww2 they would have run out of supplys quick.
its also worth noting that Paten wanted to take on Russia right after the end of ww2.

Quote from: Gwarh;904804How would the Soviets have invaded mainland Japan though at that time. Their Pacific Naval forces were not very strong tjhen and there were they? And more importantly did they have many if any Troop Ships and Landing Craft in the Pacific?

The Soviet Pacific fleet was not designed for deep water flotilla missions, but rather it was intended for littoral area denial. So on paper at the start of August they had 2 cruisers, 12 destroyers, 19 coast guards, 10 mine layers, 52 mine sweepers, 49 submarine hunters, 204 torpedo boats, 78 submarines and 1,618 aircraft (including 1,382 combat planes). In addition, the Amur river flotilla had 8 monitors, 11 gunboats, 52 armoured launches, 12 minesweepers and some other warships, which could sortie out in calmer weather.

Bare in mind that this is just the armed vessels. They had countless small freighters, fishing trawlers and other support craft which were used to carry troops, including a lot of auxiliary boats captured at the Korean ports of Yuki, Seishin and Rashin. You might think that this would be insufficient to land a force on Hokkaido, despite Soviet willingness to simply run aground 'expendable' vessels loaded with troops as a one-way assault force.  However, thanks to Project Hula, from May to July the US had very kindly supplied the Soviet navy with additional warships, including 30 Large Infantry Landing craft LCI(L), of which 5 were lost during the capture of the Kuril Islands. Atop that were 17 LCT(6)s, and 50+ LCM(3)s (although the latter I haven't been able to validate with online US Naval records).

Despite claims that the Soviets would have had troubles mounting an invasion of Hokkaido, by that time there were no fully functional Japanese naval assets left in the Sea of Japan. Everything they had left had been moved south to defend Kyushu against US invasion. The only troops left on Hokkaido were 2 divisions and a few battalions, under-equipped and supplied, having to protect an extremely long coastline. So wherever the landings occurred the Japanese would have been defeated in detail. The Soviets had learned some sharp lessons from taking the Kuril islands and they would also have unified all of their dispersed landing/support ships now that the other island chains had been taken.

Added to that, was the fact that the Soviets had absolute air superiority and the 128th Airborne Division available to support a coastal assault. So between sea landings and air drops they could have landed 2 division's worth of troops in the first few hours, after which things would only have gotten worse for the Japanese, who were cut off on Hokkaido; whilst the Soviets would have continued to shuttle yet more men to the beachhead. It was simply a matter of time.

Indeed, if not for the fact that Stalin wanted to seize the territories promised him before Japan signed the peace treaty, both Shimushu/Kuril operations would have been coordinated better. As it was, the entire campaign had been a rush job using minimal resources. Despite success, Gnechko was four days behind schedule for the planed invasion of Hokkaido, so Stalin refused him permission to continue.

If Stalin didn't have a time deadline, the only thing the US could have done to slow the conquest of Hokkaido would be to start a submarine campaign against the Soviet navy - which would have been of limited success considering the Soviets now formidable logistics chain, territorial proximity and air superiority which could have resupplied Hokkaido by plane.

Quote from: kosmos1214;904857one other thing to keep in mind the Russians where running all most entirely on us equipment.
if we had gotten in a war with them just after the end of ww2 they would have run out of supplys quick.
its also worth noting that Paten wanted to take on Russia right after the end of ww2.

I'm afraid that is not actually true. Whilst lend-lease helped out at the beginning in 1941 when Germany invaded Russia, by 1945 the Soviet Union was churning out its own arms and equipment at a furious rate. By the end of the war Lend-lease aid represented about 10-12% of the total Soviet war production.

Quote from: Pete Nash;904861I'm afraid that is not actually true. Whilst lend-lease helped out at the beginning in 1941 when Germany invaded Russia, by 1945 the Soviet Union was churning out its own arms and equipment at a furious rate. By the end of the war Lend-lease aid represented about 10-12% of the total Soviet war production.

interesting i had always heard they where running out of there own stuff because there manufacturing was wrecked

Patton's views not withstanding, selling the American people on continuing the war for years so we could turn right around and fight our Soviet ally would have been a very hard sell - 1945 was not 1950.

Quote from: Pete Nash;904859Despite claims that the Soviets would have had troubles mounting an invasion of Hokkaido, by that time there were no fully functional Japanese naval assets left in the Sea of Japan. Everything they had left had been moved south to defend Kyushu against US invasion. The only troops left on Hokkaido were 2 divisions and a few battalions, under-equipped and supplied, having to protect an extremely long coastline. So wherever the landings occurred the Japanese would have been defeated in detail. The Soviets had learned some sharp lessons from taking the Kuril islands and they would also have unified all of their dispersed landing/support ships now that the other island chains had been taken.

Hokkaido was extremely rural and no real manufacturing (and at that point, no connection to Honshu), while Kyushu was very much a part of the war machine (and a nose blow away from Korea) so it makes sense that it was a lower priority for the Japanese government. But it would be too big and too close to Honshu for the US to ignore.

I got nothin to contribute except that the timing is amusing: I just started reading Man in the High Castly by PKD. US loses WWII and is divided between Japan and Nazi Germany.  Can't say how it looked when written, but to me its an interesting premise spoiled by wildly out of whack logistics... or perhaps grossly unrealistic expectations of what the various powers were capable of.   Seems a common mistake for even good authors, to forget that its not just guns and men on the ground winning wars, but how fast you can get more men and more guns on the ground to keep winning.

Given that it's Dick, however, I suspect he just didn't give a damn, he really wanted a Japanese San Franscisco (San Frantokyo!), and Nazi Ubermensh being mocked by hidden jews, damn the logic!

Quote from: kosmos1214;904664yah there where only 2 of them the I-400 and the I-401 and the project had been scraped so only the 2 where built you'd need a lot more then 2 for that to be practical

Actually 3 were built. But I-402 never launched. And during the war at least two predecessors the I-13 and I-14 were in service to near the end of the war. Apparently over 40 of varying models were built.

It only takes one release of plague to potentially hit the whole continent. As was though Japan never implemented the subs to carry them. But as noted. Given more time. Who knows. Its one more potential "What IF?" scenario to consider.

Quote from: Spike;904880I got nothin to contribute except that the timing is amusing: I just started reading Man in the High Castly by PKD. US loses WWII and is divided between Japan and Nazi Germany.  Can't say how it looked when written, but to me its an interesting premise spoiled by wildly out of whack logistics... or perhaps grossly unrealistic expectations of what the various powers were capable of.   Seems a common mistake for even good authors, to forget that its not just guns and men on the ground winning wars, but how fast you can get more men and more guns on the ground to keep winning.

Given that it's Dick, however, I suspect he just didn't give a damn, he really wanted a Japanese San Franscisco (San Frantokyo!), and Nazi Ubermensh being mocked by hidden jews, damn the logic!

Actually, Dick mainly wanted a literary exercise in using the I Ching to write a novel.

I loved the TV series but one thing that frustrated me is how the I Ching barely figured in it.