Quote from: Abyssal Maw;409300I suspect most of the sales Paizo has are sales Wizards wasn't going to get.

This would be the case if the overlap between the Paizo and WotC customer bases is negligible.

The question is what is the size of the customer base, which overlaps both Paizo and WotC.  (ie.  Who is regularly buying both 4E and Pathfinder titles, and how large is this audience).

It's more than a couple of people, because anecdotally I know plenty of people who play both.

Q3 2010 is what, July, August, and September? When was the Essentials line announced (I honestly can't remember)? I wonder if potential D&D buyers, who were aware of Essentials, were just waiting for that line to be released.

ETA: I mean, the announcements for the Essentials weren't the clearest in the world and coupled with a lot of noise and static from both sides of the love-hate WotC spectrum, I can see quite a number of people putting themselves in a holding pattern on buying until Essentials finally came out. The Q4 report will probably shed some light on that.

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;409304It's more than a couple of people, because anecdotally I know plenty of people who play both.

At the present time, I'm buying more Paizo stuff than 4E stuff.  I'm not really picking up many 4E Essentials titles, while I still pick up the monthly Pathfinder AP.

A year ago or so, I was buying more WotC stuff than Paizo.

Quote from: The_Shadow;409298To have created a new competitor by failing to support  a large part of the customer base, and to consequently have a smaller share of the total "D&D-type game" market can only be considered a major failure.

It's here where things get iffy and you start using subjective language.

For example WotC didn't create a new competitor with 4e as Paizo was selling 3.5 products while WotC was. Paizo has been competing against them for some time.

Clearly, some people now play Pathfinder and don't play 4e. How many people do so is unclear and can't be determined from book sales - particularly book sales through one channel. WotC stopped selling books as it's primary product.

And it's a major failure? As I said upthread, if even 150,000 people have the cheapest DDI subscription, they're raking in $10,000,000 a year. How many books is that worth? I'd be shocked if WotC were making less money from D&D now than they were with 3e or 3.5. Oh, they're selling fewer books, to be sure, but making less money? Nah.

Seanchai

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;409300I suspect most of the sales Paizo has are sales Wizards wasn't going to get. I think it's great they are doing well, especially because I like their magnificent flip maps.

The main thing I can note: D&D3 and 4 together dominate the entirety of everything? What's not to like about that!

Although I agree, I must say this is a change in tone for you, AM.

Game store selection bias
Gaming in death spiral again
Haikus don't work that way, idiot

I'm not a buyer of Pathfinder stuff, but from what I've seen, Paizo is setting the standard for rpg products right now.  Their production values and writing are both ahead of 4e D&D IMO.

Quote from: mhensley;409354I'm not a buyer of Pathfinder stuff, but from what I've seen, Paizo is setting the standard for rpg products right now.  Their production values and writing are both ahead of 4e D&D IMO.

Oh they are not even close to  being as good. But the flip mats are awesome!

/flip mat fan.

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;409412Oh they are not even close to  being as good.

I'm a 4e fan, but Pathfinder - and Paizo in general - is easily as good as anything WotC does. On graphics alone, I'd give the nod to Pathfinder.

Interesting times, to be sure.
I'm really curious to see how this will unfold a year, ten years from now.

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;409300I suspect most of the sales Paizo has are sales Wizards wasn't going to get.

You say that like its somehow exculpatory evidence.  That is in fact part of the REASON why Wizards is getting beaten.  They abandoned an important chunk of the market, that they were once able to reach, and now cannot.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPundit;409504You say that like its somehow exculpatory evidence.  That is in fact part of the REASON why Wizards is getting beaten.  They abandoned an important chunk of the market, that they were once able to reach, and now cannot.

RPGPundit

Wow, I thought Wizards might be tied with someone. Now their getting beaten! You are less a pundit and more a prophet.

Quote from: RPGPundit;409504You say that like its somehow exculpatory evidence.  That is in fact part of the REASON why Wizards is getting beaten.  They abandoned an important chunk of the market, that they were once able to reach, and now cannot.

RPGPundit

Wizards isn't getting beaten. Wizards just put out a boxed set in Target, three months before Christmas. Is Pathfinder going to do that well in the future once people get over the realization that they aren't playing D&D anymore? Maybe yes, maybe no. It's supporters seem to like it, which is good. But some of it's supporters are more or less "in spirit only" because they just want to see someone beat Wizards. That can't be good for the long term, because there are only so many spiritual support gestures you can make at $75 a volume.

Blizzard beating everyone.  :rolleyes: