Quote from: Abyssal Maw;279376It must be hard to live in a world without any friends.

Taking notes from CuntScab?

Tell ya what, I'll step up and be the man here (as if there was a different option).

Quote from: StormBringer;279377Taking notes from CuntScab?

Tell ya what, I'll step up and be the man here (as if there was a different option).

I'd tell you which orifice your head appears to be currently in but I am sure OHT would come riding in to issue threats and what not.

Quote from: StormBringer;279348If they are resistant to 4e, that really does mean something.

They have 80,703 folks on the board. If every single one of them was vehemently opposed to 4e, they would represent 1.79 percent of the number of D&D players not making the switch according to WotC's figures (which are 4.5 million D&D players total).

Even if we cut the total number of players down to 1 million, we're still talking about 8.07 percent of the total number of players.

And, of course, from the poll, we might conclude that half of those 80,703 members actually enjoy 4e.

But we're also talking about self-reporting done on Internet message boards.

Seanchai

Quote from: Seanchai;279454They have 80,703 folks on the board. If every single one of them was vehemently opposed to 4e, they would represent 1.79 percent of the number of D&D players not making the switch according to WotC's figures (which are 4.5 million D&D players total).

Even if we cut the total number of players down to 1 million, we're still talking about 8.07 percent of the total number of players.

And, of course, from the poll, we might conclude that half of those 80,703 members actually enjoy 4e.

But we're also talking about self-reporting done on Internet message boards.

Seanchai

So are you saying that the poll does not provide a representative sample and is invalid because of that?

Quote from: jeff37923;279456So are you saying that the poll does not provide a representative sample and is invalid because of that?

No, I think it's a good sample of how EnWorld feels about 4e. I don't think EnWorld or it's poll is necessarily a good sample of how D&D players as a whole feel.

Seanchai

I am thinking it is a good sample of how hardcore fans feel.  While the ENWorld folks are above and beyond the average hardcore player, in that they voice their concerns on the Internet, I don't think that extra characteristic, in and of itself, means the sample is useless.  People self-select for any number of surveys and polls, by being the ones who want their voices heard.  Those samples are still used and trusted to represent the views of the population at large.

OK, this may be a lost cause, but the poll seems to be a representative sample of D&D fans and there is no practical way to poll every D&D player in the world. So, does this show that 4E is losing its popularity now that it has been out for awhile?

Quote from: jeff37923;279469OK, this may be a lost cause, but the poll seems to be a representative sample of D&D fans and there is no practical way to poll every D&D player in the world. So, does this show that 4E is losing its popularity now that it has been out for awhile?

Can a poll on a website really ever be considered "representative sample" of the population as a whole, or in this case, D&D?

Quote from: jeff37923;279469OK, this may be a lost cause, but the poll seems to be a representative sample of D&D fans and there is no practical way to poll every D&D player in the world. So, does this show that 4E is losing its popularity now that it has been out for awhile?

I would further narrow the audience to the hardcore 3.x fans and say they are not likely going for it in the numbers WotC would have hoped.  Now, what percentage of them have a group behind them that will probably not get 4e because of their resistance?  Difficult to say, but you can play averages.  Let's say the ENWorld poll is rather overvalued, and the numbers are closer to 30%.  Out of, say, 10mil world wide, that is already 3mil.  If they influence one, and only one, other person with no overlap, you have lost over half your potential market.  Add in some overlap and make it .5 people each, you are still sitting at just under half.

The numbers would have to be wildly inaccurate, to the tune of over 50% lower.  If it was around 10%, that is 1mil, or 2mil if they influence just the one person.  Clearly, none of us here are at the top of the marketing field, but Toyota's retention rate of 64.6% is considered unusually high.  If customer retention for 4e were in the 90% range, there would be no WotC.  They would be bought for an astronomical sum and absorbed by some other company so they would have access to the God of Marketing that is employed by WotC.

I don't find 42% retention unbelievable.  Whether or not that is higher than retention from 2e to 3.0 is debatable, but I would say likely not.

Quote from: jeff37923;279456So are you saying that the poll does not provide a representative sample and is invalid because of that?

It's absolutely representative of Enworld- which was originally a community based around fandom for D&D3e, but was eventually transformed (just look how the Ennies transformed over time) into a more general D20 and D&D all-editions community. If you are into Spycraft, or Castles and Crusades or part of the "old school resurgence"-- Enworld is one of the main places where you go, and some of those people are very hostile to D&D4e for different reasons.

Many D&D3 players who hang around at Enworld are too well invested in D&D3 and still having fun and are unwilling to change.

Many people in the general D20 crowd are upset because the old D20 license is going away or changing. Enworld itself runs it's own D20 store and includes a ton of the original crowd of D20 content creators amongst it's site supporters. Some of them even served as admins at one time or another.  

Many people who are into the older editions are upset because the game itself is different. Many of these guys are collectors and historians and have interests that are totally different than being a general friday night player.

And many people are D&D fans that are excited by the 4E  rules and are playing that.  

All of those people are represented by the poll. But the poll doesn't represent anything other than the specific community that has come to hang out at Enworld.

Quote from: jeff37923;279469So, does this show that 4E is losing its popularity now that it has been out for awhile?

Keep in mind that some of the most vocal opponents to 4e were also amongst the most vocal opponents of 3e and had no intention of ever playing either game. You can't be disgruntled if you've never even been gruntled, can you?

I suspect the only way to prove any of this would be to wait a year and then see how many people are still playing or talking about 4th Edition, and then a year from that do it again, and so on and so forth. Once we get to five years and people are still happily playing D&D, I guess it won't matter anymore.

Alternately you could go to GenCon and just count the filled RPGA events.

Quote from: jeff37923;279469OK, this may be a lost cause, but the poll seems to be a representative sample of D&D fans and there is no practical way to poll every D&D player in the world.

I would just call it a lost cause and leave it at that. We learned the hard way years ago in regards to Shadowrun that forum members were not a valid statistical representative of the product-buying populace as a whole. Personally, I think it's not worth trying to separate the truth from the statistics, in a case like this.

Yeah, I'm throwing in the towel on this one.

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;279481Keep in mind that some of the most vocal opponents to 4e were also amongst the most vocal opponents of 3e and had no intention of ever playing either game. You can't be disgruntled if you've never even been gruntled, can you?

I was one of the biggest, best known cheerleaders of D&D and D20-supremacy, and had played a couple of 3e campaigns (one regular, when it first came out, and one Midnight campaign).

QuoteI suspect the only way to prove any of this would be to wait a year and then see how many people are still playing or talking about 4th Edition, and then a year from that do it again, and so on and so forth. Once we get to five years and people are still happily playing D&D, I guess it won't matter anymore.

Or wait till WoTC declares that its shutting down, or being absorbed by hasbro or something like that.  And you can bet that, just like TSR, right up to the moment they go utterly broke they'll be claiming that they've had the "Best year ever for sales" and that they are doing spectacularly and that rainbows and unicorns are coming out of their asses.

Unfortunately, with internet-buzz its sometimes very difficult to tell if a game has 20 or 20000 fans. Because sometimes those 20 fans can be very vocal. But what you have to watch for are little details inside the actual company, and the choices, successes or failures they have that are so big as to be noticeable, plus what retailers are up to. That's how you'll know how things are really going.

RPGPundit

Going back to the topic of Pathfinder. Someone here has suggested that Pathfinder is someone's interesting houserules for 3e.  That's not right. Pathfinder is EVERYONE'S interesting houserules for 3e.

Now, I have no intention of playing either Pathfinder or 4e, I should make that clear. But as to the question of Pathfinder "good/bad" there is clearly a few things that set Pathfinder aside from 4e.

1. Pathfinder begins from the basis of 3e and tries to create a new actual edition. 4e just plain rewrites the game all but from scratch.

2. Pathfinder is working in a long-term and profound consultation process with everyone who wants to get on board with them, you can get to be a playtester and your feedback will be noted just by getting on their forums. Its the ultimate in interactive design and for that they deserve credit, IMO.  
4e was basically not playtested. It was "tested" by the authors and a tiny group of their close friends and co-workers who were all pre-convinced that they were going to redo the wheel and that it was a really brilliant idea on their part to do so, and had a vested interest in claiming that the system is awesome and works fine and will be loved by the unwashed proles.

So what Pathfinder's differences from 4e mean is that Pathfinder will appeal to a cadre of loyal 3e-people, and they will cement their loyalty by the feeling that THEY are the ones getting to influence the "new edition".  

On the bad side, its going to be "uber-3e" and probably exaggerate some of the flaws that 3e had.

But really, its a brilliant idea from a marketing POV for Paizo.  I don't think they could have imagined, beyond their wildest dreams really, that WoTC would fuckup the marketing and promotion and design process and internet plan and... well, everything about how they released 4e, and would get such a HUGE number of people pissed off with them to the point that they would be more interested in Pathfinder.  

Had Wizards been smarter, and less of a bunch of incompetent lying asses in their promotion and design process, Pathfinder would have been a blip.  As it is, its going to be a viable mid-tier game for a long time to come, and according to sales figures has shotup stratospherically as a bestseller in the RPG world, even in only its Beta edition.

RPGPundit