D&D also rots your teeth.

Quote from: King of Old SchoolYes, please bring up New Coke.  Then we can talk all about the advantages D&D has over Coke as a dominant brand:

Coke is a disposable, multiple-purchase item.  You buy a can/bottle/cup of Coke, drink it, and it's gone.  You can try an alternative to Coke once with almost zero impact on your overall Coke purchasing habits (unless you prefer the alternative).  You don't need to invest any time or effort in learning how to drink Coke, and once you're a Coke drinker you don't need to relearn how to drink Coke-alternatives should you want to try them.  There is no meaningful barrier preventing Coke drinkers from trying Coke-alternatives, other than availability (and indeed, availaiblity is the biggest advantage Coke has over Pepsi -- it's superior sales numbers are driven in large part due to restaurants and similar venues which carry Coke products exclusively).

D&D is a persistent, single-purchase item; you buy the books once and continue to use them virtually forever (as many 1e players will happily tell you).  There is a not-insignificant investment in money, time and effort involved in purchasing and using the D&D product, and even if you know how to play D&D there will be a similar investment in money, time and effort required should you wish to sample an alternative to D&D.  This represents a meaningful barrier to competition for D&D-alternatives.  That's why they based a whole product marketing and development strategy around the phenomenon... it was called d20, and you may have heard of it.

KoOS

All good points, KoOS. The idea seemed to be that companies who hold an overwhelming market share are immune, or nigh impossible to fall from grace. It's even implied in the title of the thread. My point with New Coke was that it's not unheard of.

It will be interesting to follow Windows Vista, of which we haven't seen the full impact yet IMHO, and is much closer to the points you make above - it's more investment to discard in order to switch. And yet, I'm hearing, only anecdotally mind you (no, not the Apple advertisements) that people are so frustrated that they are requesting machines that still come with XP, or trying/wanting to switch back. So maybe that will end up a better example in the long run - at least with respect to the very applicable points you raise.

Quote from: James J SkachAll good points, KoOS. The idea seemed to be that companies who hold an overwhelming market share are immune, or nigh impossible to fall from grace. It's even implied in the title of the thread. My point with New Coke was that it's not unheard of.

It will be interesting to follow Windows Vista, of which we haven't seen the full impact yet IMHO, and is much closer to the points you make above - it's more investment to discard in order to switch. And yet, I'm hearing, only anecdotally mind you (no, not the Apple advertisements) that people are so frustrated that they are requesting machines that still come with XP, or trying/wanting to switch back. So maybe that will end up a better example in the long run - at least with respect to the very applicable points you raise.

Vista is failing, HARD.  The only reason it's selling at all is the usual OEM strongarming of forcing companies to only sell boxes with Vista preinstalled.  Actual retail sales are far from stellar, some of the biggest OEMs are finally just giving the finger to MS and selling boxes with XP anyway, and to top it all off, even MS seems to admit failure by amping up support for XP with a new service pack on the way and even backporting supposedly exclusive features like Games for Windows Live.

But the key there is in that latter portion, because if 4e really does flop, then there's nothing stopping Wizards from taking the same route if they're smart.  Backpedal a bit, revitalize support for 3.x, maybe label it "Classic D&D" or some other wierd misnomer, and keep it as a parallel product line until 4e either finally reaches critical mass, or flops, at which point one or the other can just be axed.

Quote from: DrewD&D also rots your teeth.

And causes brain cancer, just ask Ron Edwards.

Quote from: J ArcaneBut the key there is in that latter portion, because if 4e really does flop, then there's nothing stopping Wizards from taking the same route if they're smart.  Backpedal a bit, revitalize support for 3.x, maybe label it "Classic D&D" or some other wierd misnomer, and keep it as a parallel product line until 4e either finally reaches critical mass, or flops, at which point one or the other can just be axed.

Hey - I said that already!

Here's a question - can someone else who stayed with d20/OGL/3.5, or maybe made their own 3.75 and supported the hell out of it, could they compete in such a way as to head-off this kind of back slip from WotC/Hasbro? Maybe someone who takes a page from Apple and actually advertise as someone who has the real next best game - 3.75 (Like Apple is now doing with Leopard)?

Just a thought...

Quote from: James J SkachHey - I said that already!

Here's a question - can someone else who stayed with d20/OGL/3.5, or maybe made their own 3.75 and supported the hell out of it, could they compete in such a way as to head-off this kind of back slip from WotC/Hasbro? Maybe someone who takes a page from Apple and actually advertise as someone who has the real next best game - 3.75 (Like Apple is now doing with Leopard)?

Just a thought...

There's nobody in the "industry" with enough clout and marketing push to pull it off except White Wolf, and I doubt they're interested considering both the half-assed nature of much of their D20 material in the past, as well as them being tied up with CCP and everything now.

Quote from: James J SkachIt will be interesting to follow Windows Vista, of which we haven't seen the full impact yet IMHO, and is much closer to the points you make above - it's more investment to discard in order to switch. And yet, I'm hearing, only anecdotally mind you (no, not the Apple advertisements) that people are so frustrated that they are requesting machines that still come with XP, or trying/wanting to switch back. So maybe that will end up a better example in the long run - at least with respect to the very applicable points you raise.

Exactly.  Vista's real competition isn't the Mac OS, it's XP.  Likewise, if D&D4e sucks hard its biggest competitor will be 3.x... as in, existing D&D 3.x books with the D&D name printed on the cover, not some 3.75 pastiche put together by Paizo* or Necromancer or whoever and almost certainly not some other non-D&D-related RPG.  I suppose it's possible that a really, really sucky 4e released roughly simultaneously with some new RPG that draws completely new blood into the RPG market, a la V:tM 1e, might set up a brief period of real close competition, but IMO that almost certainly won't happen.

KoOS

* FWIW, I'd almost certainly buy a Paizo-produced 3.75 pastiche if it were produced with the same phenomenal production standards and design sense as Shackled City and Pathfinder, and I'd probably end up liking it better than I'll like 4e, but that's not the same as saying I think it would be a serious competitor for 4e in the overall market.

Quote from: J ArcaneThere's nobody in the "industry" with enough clout and marketing push to pull it off except White Wolf, and I doubt they're interested considering both the half-assed nature of much of their D20 material in the past

 I don't see anything "half-assed" about the Scarred Lands, Necromancer or Malhavoc stuff, regardless of whether or not I personally like any of it.

Agreed about CCP, though.

KoOS

Quote from: King of Old School  I don't see anything "half-assed" about the Scarred Lands, Necromancer or Malhavoc stuff, regardless of whether or not I personally like any of it.

Agreed about CCP, though.

KoOS

The Necromancer and Malhavoc stuff doesn't count, because it's basically outsourced from other companies wit their own independent editorial staff, they just print it.  

Their inhouse stuff has largely been awful cashins, almost as bad as Mongoose, and all of it very clearly not given the same focus and effort they give to their Storyteller line.

Another thing to keep in mind about the OS comparison: I doubt there is a significant percentage of the potential Windows customer base which isn't aware of Apple and the Mac.  There's a big chunk of the D&D customer base, OTOH, which is completely clueless about tabletop RPGs that aren't called "Dungeons & Dragons," doesn't know anything about them and doesn't care to find out.

KoOS

Quote from: J ArcaneTheir inhouse stuff has largely been awful cashins, almost as bad as Mongoose, and all of it very clearly not given the same focus and effort they give to their Storyteller line.

If you honestly think that Scarred Lands is remotely comparable to Mongoose's dreck, IMO your standards are waaay out of whack.  And I don't even like Scarred Lands...

KoOS