Quote from: flyingmiceWe are talking about TRPGs here, Stuart. At least the rest of us are. Are you just being pedantic, or is there another reason you're being contrary?

Outside of variations in theme and dice mechanics, most tabletop RPGs are the same game as D&D.

For a game to compete with D&D it needs to do something distinctive.  That distinctiveness will very likely place it outside of how the generally accepted definition for TRPGs.  

Vampire was successful because it included lots of LARP at the clubs with the hot goth girls along with the Vampire themed D&D game.

Magic the Gathering had the same theme as D&D, but the game itself was completely different.  It competed with D&D so well that the company that made Magic ended up buying D&D.

I'm suggesting that for a game to compete with D&D, it needs to be more than just D&D with a fresh coat of paint.

I think it's highly unlikely, but, really, it depends on 4e. If 4e really does give the silent majority what it wants, then no bleepin' way. If it falls down in that regard, maybe.

Seanchai

Geez, guys.  Stuart is using the examples to point out that in many ways it will all depend on how you define the competition. As you narrow the scope, the chance of competing goes does dramatically.

If you're a game just like D&D (whatever edition at this point), what are your chances of competing? Slim and none - because brand recognition, loyalty, etc. are enough to overcome any minor objective quality increases.

The question is, will 4e do something not seen before - differentiate itself enough, that is (as Pundit points out), narrow it's scope significantly enough (either by accident or design), that you could make a "bog-standard" fanatasy game that was different enough from D&D to pick up the people not included in the new, narrower focus.  How many people will that be? Will the new edition of the game be differentiated/focused enough that a new slot essentially opens up?

Too soon to tell, but I'm betting on, at the very least, a small community of folks who do not move with the edition. As Haffrung points out, I think it will be more than just edition-specific grognards - how much more will be the question.

If DnD fucks up(in terms of their fanbase), someone will pick up the slack.

My thoughts are that the main competitor game won't be another trad fantasy, but will be some other genre. Like how Vampire used to be serious competition. I'm personally hoping game #2 will be a science fiction game.

Quote from: StuartOutside of variations in theme and dice mechanics, most tabletop RPGs are the same game as D&D.

For a game to compete with D&D it needs to do something distinctive.  That distinctiveness will very likely place it outside of how the generally accepted definition for TRPGs.  

Vampire was successful because it included lots of LARP at the clubs with the hot goth girls along with the Vampire themed D&D game.

Magic the Gathering had the same theme as D&D, but the game itself was completely different.  It competed with D&D so well that the company that made Magic ended up buying D&D.

I'm suggesting that for a game to compete with D&D, it needs to be more than just D&D with a fresh coat of paint.

I agree that no game that does what D&D does will ever supplant it.

I also agree that no TRPG will ever supplant D&D.

I disagree that all TRPGs are just D&D with a new coat of paint.

I don't care if non TRPGs can sell better than D&D. I'm not interested in non-TRPGs. If I was, I'd be making CRPGs or board games or whatever else instead. Supplanting D&D is not necessary to making good, profitable, and fun games. Dozens, no - hundreds - of computer and video games make more money than D&D. Great for them. That means nothing to me.

-clash

Could any other rpg seriously compete with 4E ? I doubt 4E will be a flop but even if it is, I doubt any other rpg would replace it as the most played rpg.

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RCould any other rpg seriously compete with 4E ? I doubt 4E will be a flop but even if it is, I doubt any other rpg would replace it as the most played rpg.

Well if it's a real flop, probably 3rd edition and the conglomerate of AD&D will continue to dominate the hobby.

Quote from: walkerpWell if it's a real flop, probably 3rd edition and the conglomerate of AD&D will continue to dominate the hobby.

Yeah. Which is why I think D20 Haven is a really good idea. It could be the next Enworld or something.

Regards,
David R

Given the level of alientation / anger that some former D&D fans are feeling towards the company, coupled with resentment over the open source thing being in all but name taken away, and the "suggested" $10-15/ month fee to wizards for destroying Dragon & Dungeon magazines, I would say that yes, done right, a company could offer a serious challenge to D&D.  But it will not be GURPS, or Paladium-- it would have to be a well known d20 publisher (or alliance of publishers) who essentially rebel.

If Paizo and Green Ronin worked together on that whole 3.75 thing, then they could give D&D a run for its money.

Quote from: David RCould any other rpg seriously compete with 4E ? I doubt 4E will be a flop but even if it is, I doubt any other rpg would replace it as the most played rpg.

In much the same way that Coca Cola consistently outsells Pepsi, and MacDonalds consistently outsells Burger King.  Almost by sole virtue of having been first to establish themselves as THE representative of their respective markets in the public's mind, D&D, Coke, and MacDonalds will always be on top of their fields.

Now, notice the mention of corporate identity above.  D&D is now part of Hasbro, one of the world's largest manufacturers of toys and games.  If we're talking about a serious run at the market share, like Pepsi trying to make the most out of second place to Coke, then we need a strong contender to be taken under the wing of a similarly-matched corporate toys-n-game powerhouse.  Say White Wolf sold their Vampire and/or Exalted properties to, say, Mattel if they wanted to get in on the business.  Mattel starts pumping many $$$ into the equation, produces a line or two of detailed, collectable minis and a boardgame-like adjunct to the RPG, and I think you could see a strong #2.  Much closer than anything we currently see or can reasonably expect.

Will this ever happen, though?  Probably not.  Hasbro bought D&D because it was THE recognisable name in RPGs.  And Hasbro has also effectively cornered the market on US popular games, so there's not much of an incentive for competing toy manufacturers to diversify into RPGs without a similar stable of board and card games in production.

So, can it happen?  Yes.  Will it happen?  It's a long, long shot.

!i!

Quote from: BASHMANGiven the level of alientation / anger that some former D&D fans...

I don't think that the anger is really that widespread. Online forums don't reflect the player base that much. It looks like even the online grumbles are not any more numberous than they were for 3E, and there are currently far more 3E players than AD&D players. Sure, some people will never switch. But even a fair amount of the grumblers will switch eventually.
 
For anything to get bigger than D&D, I think it would have to a reformulation of how we think of rpgs taps a whole new market.

Quote from: David RYeah. Which is why I think D20 Haven is a really good idea. It could be the next Enworld or something.

Regards,
David R

Thanks, David!

I don't know about Enworld.  I just wanted to provide a community for like-minded people who want to take a different direction than the company that controls the IP of the most recognized TTRPG.

Come on over and chat - there's a general gaming forum there, too...

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaIn much the same way that Coca Cola consistently outsells Pepsi, and MacDonalds consistently outsells Burger King.  Almost by sole virtue of having been first to establish themselves as THE representative of their respective markets in the public's mind, D&D, Coke, and MacDonalds will always be on top of their fields.

Now, notice the mention of corporate identity above.  D&D is now part of Hasbro, one of the world's largest manufacturers of toys and games.  If we're talking about a serious run at the market share, like Pepsi trying to make the most out of second place to Coke, then we need a strong contender to be taken under the wing of a similarly-matched corporate toys-n-game powerhouse.

Bingo.

Look at Koltar's thread on sales.  The entire RPG sales picture is "60 to 65% D&D, and everything else".  I think White Wolf is #2 -- at about 20% or so.

D&D's nearest competitor is one-third its sales volume.

No.  No other game could seriously compete with D&D.  If a serious number of people desert D&D due to 4e, they will either go back to earlier editions or leave RPGs altogether.

For most of the public, "D&D" is what "RPG" means.

The only RPGs which will seriously compete in terms of market share with the newest iteration of the game branded D&D, are older editions of the D&D brand.  It's an insanely dominant brand, synonymous with its product in the same way that Coke and Kleenex are but with advantages that neither of those brands have.

KoOS

Do I need to bring up New Coke? The king of world-wide brands brought to it's knees. No, I'm not saying it will happen.  I'm just pointing out that for many people, Coke was what soft-drink meant; until Coca-Cola decided to change the formula and got their heads handed to them on a platter.

Why did Coke change? To be Hip and Edgy? To go after the competition? To refresh the image?

And what did people demand? Go back to the old formula...