First, let me say I am completely neutral on D&D 4th Ed. so far.  I want it to do well, because I think it's by far the largest entry point into the hobby (besides, get 'em in, and I'll worry about converting 'em to my games ).

Even outside the discussion of how popular or sucessful 4e will be, would it be possible for a company or alliance of companies to marshal the resources and cooperation necessary to make a product that, perhaps if not surpassing D&D, slides into a competitive #2 spot?  Perhaps by producing or maintaining a system that supports the assumed fantasy setting, tropes, and features built up over the past 30 years?

Choosing either a common system to write for (instead of their own in-house system), teaming up to promote it, and making it OGL, could this be done?  I can see a million reasons where, say, Green Ronin, Mongoose, and SJ Games would never team up to do, but can anyone give me a scenario in which it would work?

The one I can think of is keeping 3.x alive with a popular 3.75 iteration, supported by at least many of the companies that support 3.x now.  But I await the wisdom and thoughts of those more experienced and savvy than I (which should, admittedly, be a large pool from which to draw).

Anyhow, thoughts?

No.

-clash

That´d be assuming all 3.x publishers have the same interest.

I´m sure, that´s wrong.

Why?

Look at Paizo.
Look at Necromancer.

Which products are they famous for?

Necromancer is famous for re-hashs of old stuff for 3.x.
With 4e, they can re-sell Tome of Horrors & the Wilderlands.

Paizo OTOH sells adventures to subscribers.

Totally different approaches, for example.

That totally explains, why NG is reallyrallyreally looking forward to 4e: They can produce and sell their old content again.

WoTC is betting on a new generation of gamers for 4th edition. You need to figure out what will appeal to 15 to 20 years old and see if there is common ground with the current generation and go from there.

The major problem between WoTC and the rest of the market is that WoTC has the resources to do research and try to anticipate the market. For the rest of the companies it is crap shot at trying to figure anything for the future as there is little data to go on. In that circumstance your goal should be to make a quality product with a quality game with quality writing and quality support.

Also keep in mind that regardless of genre or subject matter a tabletop RPG requires people to sit down around a table and play. So you need to look for trends and ideas that favor that.

I certainly would not put any money on it, but I can see certain scenarios evolving.  But it would only begin to happen after either a real failure of 4e or a severe splintering of 4e players from the rest of the roleplaying hobby, because 4e has been transformed into a pen and paper MMORPG.

But I have trouble seeing such a situation that would not involve a major shrinking of the hobby overall.  Maybe if another large company bought one of the middle tier ones and started doing some major promotion and marketing, seeing that Wizards was weakening and losing the market with 4e.  But that transition for some of these excellent but small companies (Green Ronin, SJGames, Pinnacle) would be major of high-risk.

What about the guy who runs GenCon?  He's got money, gaming cred and management expertise.  He's got something coming out after Bella Sara that will probably be a roleplaying game.  He poached Luke Crane and some other small game designer (was it John Wick?).  Maybe he'll look to bigger things if that does well.

Could A Game Seriously Compete With D&D 4e?

Absolutely. It happens all the time.

They're just not "RPGs that are just like D&D"... and remember, to the general public any RPG is basically "D&D".

Now, if you want to narrow it down and exclude lots of games on the shelves an under development (probably including my own), then the question is:  could a tabletop RPG, following the same model as D&D, seriously compete with D&D 4e?

I'd still say yes.  Vampire competed with D&D a lot in the past, and if 4e is as weak as I'm guessing it could be, there's no reason another game couldn't compete with it now.

If you want to narrow that even further and say: could a fantasy / dungeon themed tabletop RPG, following the same model as D&D, seriously compete with D&D 4e?

THAT is where I'm not 100% sure... because the D&D brand is still very strong.  Although a weak 4e and a strong alternative...

yeah.  I think it could compete.  It'd take $ for marketing, or a really brilliant game though.  And let's face it... as far as the *GAME* part goes, there aren't too many brilliant RPGs.

Quote from: StuartCould A Game Seriously Compete With D&D 4e?

Absolutely. It happens all the time.

I have to assume you're not talking in terms of market share, so what do you mean by this?

If a game could, I don't forsee it.

But the thing about such trends is you don't forsee them. The last game to garner anywhere near D&D's market share was Vampire, and it was riding a different cultural wave and bringing new people into roleplaying.

D&D could also screw the pooch severely on its own, but again, I'm not seeing it. As much as I personally don't like what they are doing and suspect they will lose a non-negligible segment of their market without much in the way of apparent effort to bring in new blood, I don't see anything they are doing that is so bad that the loss will be very significant in the big scheme of things.

It's possible if it pulls in a new group of people and has a different feel.  They're not in the same categories but WoW and Magic both surpassed D&D and maintained a respectable audience.

Something tells me that even if D&D  was OOP print for 10 years it'd still be the most popular RPG.

I might be wrong, but I think there are still more people playing 2E D&D than pretty much any other RPG.

Quote from: McrowSomething tells me that even if D&D  was OOP print for 10 years it'd still be the most popular RPG.

I might be wrong, but I think there are still more people playing 2E D&D than pretty much any other RPG.

It's always crazy how many 2nd Ed. players I run into when running demos or hanging out at an FLGS.

Quote from: James McMurrayI have to assume you're not talking in terms of market share, so what do you mean by this?

Monopoly, Risk, and Dora the Explorer Candyland sell more copies than D&D.

Tons of games do better than D&D.  It's all about how you narrow game down into "certain kinds of games".  Invariably that's "games that are just like D&D... and D&D will do very well when compared to those.

Quote from: StuartMonopoly, Risk, and Dora the Explorer Candyland sell more copies than D&D.

Tons of games do better than D&D.  It's all about how you narrow game down into "certain kinds of games".  Invariably that's "games that are just like D&D... and D&D will do very well when compared to those.

We are talking about TRPGs here, Stuart. At least the rest of us are. Are you just being pedantic, or is there another reason you're being contrary?

-clash

Quote from: StuartMonopoly, Risk, and Dora the Explorer Candyland sell more copies than D&D.

Ah, ok. I thought you were trying to be meaningfully on topic. Sorry for the confusion.

Quote from: SettembriniNecromancer is famous for re-hashs of old stuff for 3.x.
With 4e, they can re-sell Tome of Horrors & the Wilderlands...

That totally explains, why NG is reallyrallyreally looking forward to 4e: They can produce and sell their old content again.

That's not really true. First off, NG is not a real business. The two principals have serious day jobs (they're both lawyers), and dabble in RPG publishing because they're dedicated enthusiasts, not because they make any money out of it. So they don't churn out stuff to make a buck (though they don't like to lose money, either).

Here's Clark Peterson on NG's plans for 4E:

WotC just had a conference call with the publishers yesterday and have posted their OGL and SRD plans on their site today, as most of you know. I wanted to let everyone know that Necromancer Games is IN! in conjunction with Paizo. We will have products for GenCon or shortly thereafter.

Products include:

1. Tome of Horrors 4E. if WotC leaves monsters out of the offial rules, we will put them back in (cant say which ones cause we dont have the rules yet). Plus all the classics from the original Tome that you want in your 4E game will be back.

2. Advanced Player's Guide. Designed in part by industry insider Ari Marmell, if they left classes and races out, we put them back in (Of course, we can't say if bards or druids or barbarians or gnomes or half-orc are or arent in 4th edition, but we know some stuff has been cut, and whatever is missing we will create for you with work by respected designer Ari Marmell.)

3. Tegel Manor. A 4E version of the 1E Judges Guild classic.

4. Winter's Tomb. A free, downloadable PDF along the lines of Wizard's Amulet, Necro's Ennie-winning introductory adventure, that will help jump start your 4E campaign.

Winter's Tomb will be available at the first day 4E products can be released. Tome 4E should be available at GenCon with the Advanced Player's Guide. Tegel is also targeted for GenCon. Dates could slip pending WotC's delivery of the design kits.

Looks like what they're doing is supplying old-edition content (like monsters and classes) using the 4E rules. Tegel Manor is a re-write that was originally planned for 3.5, but which is being ported over to 4E.

Winter's Tomb is all new.

I don't see anything there that suggests NG's plan is simply convert already-published NG books over into 4E. The main guy in the company, Peterson, is just one of those guys who is always keen on the latest trends in D&D. If he wasn't personally keen on the new game, they wouldn't be making the move. I don't know if the other main guy in the company even plays 3E - he's seriously old-school. He just likes cool adventures and setting books, regardless of edition.

But to answer the question posed by the OP:

No, I do not think any other RPG can come close to challenging D&D's market share - especially if it's a combat-heavy fantasy game. D&D's prominence, recognition, and clout absolutely dwarf anything else.

The only way I could see another fantasy RPG challenging D&D is if it was hitched on a massively popular IP like Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter. The boat has always sailed for the former, and there doesn't seem to be any inclination on the part of Rowling to license a pen-and-paper RPG of Harry Potter.

QuoteSomething tells me that even if D&D was OOP print for 10 years it'd still be the most popular RPG.

I might be wrong, but I think there are still more people playing 2E D&D than pretty much any other RPG.

Yep. I think RPG hipsters and folks always looking for the latest thing would be shocked at how many groups are still playing Basic, 1E, and 2E in their rec rooms, happily oblivious to the internet RPG scene and the lastest 3.5 splat book.

The game's popularity reached far, far beyond the hardcore gaming geek demographic for a while in the early 80s. Only a small fraction of those people still play, but my guess is that fraction numbers in the 10s of thousands. Half the guys in my group wouldn't even have known 3E was published if I hadn't bought the books.