Quote from: RPGPunditOk, so, at this point there's enough time since the 4e announcement that some of you may care to make public your own guesses.  When 4e comes out, will D20:

1. Drop like a rock into oblivion; no one will keep making product for it?

or

2. Continue to thrive and be supported by both a big fan base and a lot of publishers?

It occurs to me that I haven't actually yet answered the core question in this thread.

I am currently unclear as to whether there will still be a D&D or D20 trademark licence once 4E comes out. I know Wizards have confirmed there will be an OGL; I am going to assume that there will be a new trademark licence, but it will be more tightly controlled than the old one. (I get the impression that Wizards weren't always satisfied with the quality of some products bearing the D20/D&D trademark in the 3.X days - I know for a fact that they were seriously annoyed by the whole Book of Erotic Fantasy deal).

My guess is that there will still be a market for third-party adventures and supplements bearing the D20/D&D trademark, and there'll still be people more than happy to fill that market. As far as the wider OGL market, I reckon we'll see it become even more diverse. We've already had a lot of products come out for people nostalgic for older editions, or unhappy with elements of 3.X - Castles & Crusades, True20, OSRIC, that whole crowd. Those will stick around, but we'll also start to see products pitched at people dissatisfied with elements of 4E, or nostalgic for 3.X as well.

Quote from: WarthurMy guess is that there will still be a market for third-party adventures and supplements bearing the D20/D&D trademark, and there'll still be people more than happy to fill that market. As far as the wider OGL market, I reckon we'll see it become even more diverse. We've already had a lot of products come out for people nostalgic for older editions, or unhappy with elements of 3.X - Castles & Crusades, True20, OSRIC, that whole crowd. Those will stick around, but we'll also start to see products pitched at people dissatisfied with elements of 4E, or nostalgic for 3.X as well.

I think the flourishing era of D20/OGL has come and gone.

As far as people being nostalgic for 3.X... I can't see that happen anytime soon. This has nothing to do with the game, which I like. I'm not an expert on nostalgia-marketing but it seems to me that for it to happen you need:

1-Some time to go by. This is usually a generational thing. It's not nostalgia if you're wearing last year's fashion pants or listening to the music hit from 3 years ago. You're just "not trendy".

2-A seizable difference between what's offered now and what was offered then. Things like D&D and AD&D clones were relevant because they are significantly different from 3e and there was no alternative.

3-A lack of nostalgia items readily happen. In the case of 3.x, there are enough adventures, alternate rules, settings and supplements to last a life time. And they're all going to go dirt cheap real soon (check Green Ronin for a sample of what's to come). Plus, unlike previous editions, many of those products were available in electronic form and are thus immortalized. No roleplaying game has ever had as much support as 3.x and my guess is, no roleplaying ever will again.

If there's such a thing as a real nostalgia trend for 3.x, it will likely happen when D&D is in its 5th edition or up and more divorced in philosophy. Perhaps not utilizing the d20 system or making much more agressive use of electronic support to run it.

Quote from: WarthurI am currently unclear as to whether there will still be a D&D or D20 trademark licence once 4E comes out. I know Wizards have confirmed there will be an OGL; I am going to assume that there will be a new trademark licence, but it will be more tightly controlled than the old one.

It's been stated there will not be a trademark license, but there will be compatibility verbiage in the next iteration of the OGL. (Which sort of contaminates the OGL if you ask me, but hey, it's Wizards' license.)

OK, "nostalgia" isn't the right word for it, but I'm pretty sure there'll be a subset of the people who are playing 3.5 right now who, when 4E comes around, will either:

- Strenuously object to some of the alterations, and intend to keep playing in a 3.5 mould. Products will almost certainly become available for these guys.
- Consider the changes in 4E to not go far enough, and will want to make something even further divorced from 3.5. Again, products will almost certainly become available for these folks.

So, currently in the OGL market we have:

- Entirely 3.5-compliant products.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which take 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.

I don't see any reason why the likes Castles and Crusades or True20 will be extensively retooled as a result of 4E, so I can easily see a situation where the OGL market contains the following:

- Entirely 4E-compliant products.
- 3.5-compliant products for the folks who didn't want to make the switch.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which took 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.
- Systems which take a similar approach to 4E, shifting it even further away from pre-4E iterations of the system.

That's a shift from 3 niches to 5. Pretty significant, I'd say; I'm willing to bet that the OGL market will be as large as it currently is after 4E comes out but it will be even more fragmented than it currently is, so it'll be more difficult for individual companies to make big stacks of money out of it - the pie will be the same size, but it'll be cut into more slices.

Quote from: WarthurOK, "nostalgia" isn't the right word for it, but I'm pretty sure there'll be a subset of the people who are playing 3.5 right now who, when 4E comes around, will either:

- Strenuously object to some of the alterations, and intend to keep playing in a 3.5 mould. Products will almost certainly become available for these guys.
- Consider the changes in 4E to not go far enough, and will want to make something even further divorced from 3.5. Again, products will almost certainly become available for these folks.

So, currently in the OGL market we have:

- Entirely 3.5-compliant products.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which take 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.

I don't see any reason why the likes Castles and Crusades or True20 will be extensively retooled as a result of 4E, so I can easily see a situation where the OGL market contains the following:

- Entirely 4E-compliant products.
- 3.5-compliant products for the folks who didn't want to make the switch.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which took 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.
- Systems which take a similar approach to 4E, shifting it even further away from pre-4E iterations of the system.

That's a shift from 3 niches to 5. Pretty significant, I'd say; I'm willing to bet that the OGL market will be as large as it currently is after 4E comes out but it will be even more fragmented than it currently is, so it'll be more difficult for individual companies to make big stacks of money out of it - the pie will be the same size, but it'll be cut into more slices.

Nicely done, Warthur.  I'll have to let it digest before I can agree, but it's a nice analysis.

Quote from: WarthurOK, "nostalgia" isn't the right word for it, but I'm pretty sure there'll be a subset of the people who are playing 3.5 right now who, when 4E comes around, will either:

- Strenuously object to some of the alterations, and intend to keep playing in a 3.5 mould. Products will almost certainly become available for these guys.
- Consider the changes in 4E to not go far enough, and will want to make something even further divorced from 3.5. Again, products will almost certainly become available for these folks.

So, currently in the OGL market we have:

- Entirely 3.5-compliant products.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which take 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.

I don't see any reason why the likes Castles and Crusades or True20 will be extensively retooled as a result of 4E, so I can easily see a situation where the OGL market contains the following:

- Entirely 4E-compliant products.
- 3.5-compliant products for the folks who didn't want to make the switch.
- Throwbacks to pre-3.X models of the system, like Castles and Crusades.
- Systems which took 3.5 even further away from the earlier iterations of the system, like True 20.
- Systems which take a similar approach to 4E, shifting it even further away from pre-4E iterations of the system.

That's a shift from 3 niches to 5. Pretty significant, I'd say; I'm willing to bet that the OGL market will be as large as it currently is after 4E comes out but it will be even more fragmented than it currently is, so it'll be more difficult for individual companies to make big stacks of money out of it - the pie will be the same size, but it'll be cut into more slices.

Pretty cool stuff, Warthur!

Lots of interesting ideas. The one I still question is 3.5 compliant products. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what kind of product could be offered that haven't been offered already. 3.x is covered through and through from pretty much every angle possible. All these products will be readily available, probably at discounts, for a long time (especially in electronic format). In this context, I can't see how it can be done.

New 3.5 products aren't just going to compete with a new edition of D&D. The real bummer is that people who want to keep on playing 3.5 (I have a few friends like that) already have their needs covered.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambIf my words were so hopelessly irrelevant, you'd never have even responded to me, either directly or indirectly.

How would you know I'm not looking to join your hater parade and want something substantive unless I say that?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambIf online communities were as irrelevant as you imply they are, not only would you avoid contradicting yourself by engaging in this Internet fappery, but Hasbro wouldn't be launching their "Digital Initiative".

Try something other than a straw man for better results. I said that online communities weren't indicative of the tastes, opinions, and behaviors of the majority of gamers. I didn't say anything about whether or not WotC wants their money, whether they can influence game companies, etc..

Quote from: Sacrificial LambDo you mean Forge games? If you don't, then most rpg companies would be classified as "indie".

I will bludgeon you if you try to make this about what is or is not an indie game.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambYou can bitch too, sugar plum. In fact, I think you just did.

Ah, this is intentional. Gotcha.

Seanchai

Quote from: WarthurI'm willing to bet that the OGL market will be as large as it currently is after 4E comes out but it will be even more fragmented than it currently is, so it'll be more difficult for individual companies to make big stacks of money out of it - the pie will be the same size, but it'll be cut into more slices.

I'm willing to bet it'll reduce in size. Definitely not go away, but loose members. The majority of those who remain will play 4e and OGL games.

Seanchai

Quote from: Consonant DudePretty cool stuff, Warthur!

Lots of interesting ideas. The one I still question is 3.5 compliant products. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what kind of product could be offered that haven't been offered already. 3.x is covered through and through from pretty much every angle possible. All these products will be readily available, probably at discounts, for a long time (especially in electronic format). In this context, I can't see how it can be done.

I suspect people will keep publishing a few new 3.5 products (adventure modules, if nothing else), although I agree with you that it won't necessarily be a clever or profitable idea - someone, somewhere, will gamble on there being enough of a 3.5 holdout community remaining after 4E is published for their products to find a niche. They may or may not be correct in that.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb7.) Characters regenerate their hit points now.

Wait... I haven't been following it in a while, so I have to ask:

Is this true? Confirmed and accounted for?

Really?

REALLY?

Details? Link, please?

I call dibs on being the first to call bullshit on second wind as the vanguard for the Hyper-Magic age we are facing.

Quote from: Pierce InverarityWait... I haven't been following it in a while, so I have to ask:

Is this true? Confirmed and accounted for?

Really?

REALLY?

Details? Link, please?

Damn it, I'm trying to remember the link. I think I saw this on ENWorld. Characters have this non-magical ability called "Second Wind", and it allows Bob, the Fighter to heal or regenerate his Hit Points. I don't recall precisely how it works, sorry. :deflated:

Quote from: SettembriniI call dibs on being the first to call bullshit on second wind as the vanguard for the Hyper-Magic age we are facing.

i think you did already, in another thread.  but okay, and i agree.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambDamn it, I'm trying to remember the link. I think I saw this on ENWorld. Characters have this non-magical ability called "Second Wind", and it allows Bob, the Fighter to heal or regenerate his Hit Points. I don't recall precisely how it works, sorry. :deflated:

I read something about the Fighter being able to do this, and it definitely was at ENWorld in a thread about one of the developer blogs.  I can't recall which though, or even if it was in the developer blog or just in the random-joe comments concerning the blog entry.

Definitely not a "D&D" concept (iirc, it appears in Earthdawn though), but one that I can get behind as, I feel, it improves the play experience by reducing the burden on the Cleric.  I don't think it's too far fetched either, considering that one of the oldest saws about D&D is Hit Points not simply reflecting physical damage.  Thus a Fighter's "second wind" could be likened to getting his bearings back or an adrenaline rush or whatever.  No magical trappings are necessary in order to recover Hit Points if Hit Points still don't mean physical damage, exclusively.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb1.) They're making part-demons and part-angels as core races.

2.) You don't roll saving throws any more.

6.) Fighters inflict damage even when they miss.

7.) Characters regenerate their hit points now.

10.) Action Points are core.

11.) All non-magical classes have non-magical "spells".

these are dealbreakers for me, especially 6.  WTF?