If WotC closes shop, none of the vanity press products of the most popular YouTube influencers are going to replace D&D. There is in fact only one game that can...

Domino has definitely been bribed to be so cute.

being the perceived first on the scene is always going to an advantage nobody can match. D&D has had it's lows and highs before.

The big issue in my mind is tabletop games don't have a large enough market cap to begin with, D&D being worth a billion dollars relies on TTRPGs as a whole simply being more mainstream than they currently are, and the vast majority of people in my social circles just aren't into them.

their best bet is to simply license more successful video games from the IP if they want to make real money. the market cap on video games is at this point larger than the film industry.

Funny, I seemed to have already replaced D&D.  We called it Palladium books back in high school.

These days it's Tiny D6: Supers. 

Fun fact about me: I've never played a D&D game, or even an OSR copycat.  The closest I've come is some solo testing of the OSR game Chanbara.

Economically Pathfinder is going to "take over" in the sense of being the largest remaining market share still putting out new content, despite Pathfinder 2 being complete shit as a game.  Given the nature of the hobby however, I expect people are just going to carry on with their D&D version of choice until the paper eventually rots out of the books, or Pathfinder 1 in the case of the people who think it's better than 3.5 as it's basically D&D with the serial numbers filed off.  Thankfully we're under no obligation to be pried away from our already-purchased books and can continue on just fine without WotC.

How is Tales of the Valiant doing?

After the OGL debacle, Kolbold Press launched a KS for TotV. It was meant to be a non-OGL 5E, with some of their own changes:

QuoteThe big-picture goals for Tales of the Valiant are:
1) Make the rules easier to read, understand, and use.
2) Reduce GM burden with encounter-building tools, exploration encounter tools, social encounter tools, and more.
3) Rebalance some existing elements such as feats (now known as talents) and subclasses.
4) Provide opportunities for PCs to make meaningful choices throughout every level of play.
5) Make spellcasting cooler.
6) Keep combat interesting for martial characters.

10,057 backers pledged $1,151,914. Delivered on April 2024, so it's been about a year. Did Shadowdark and/or 5.5E steal the thunder?

Greetings!

Let all the haters cry. SHADOWDARK is getting bigger and bigger. SHADOWDARK is going to continue going from success to success. SGADOWDARK is more and more popular, EVERY DAY.

The recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

More third-party creators are creating stuff for Shadowdark. More interviews, more coverage, more people playing and DMing Shadowdark than ever before.

The haters can choke on it.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Quote from: SHARK on April 20, 2025, 06:50:35 PMGreetings!

Let all the haters cry. SHADOWDARK is getting bigger and bigger. SHADOWDARK is going to continue going from success to success. SGADOWDARK is more and more popular, EVERY DAY.

The recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

More third-party creators are creating stuff for Shadowdark. More interviews, more coverage, more people playing and DMing Shadowdark than ever before.

The haters can choke on it.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Shark,

Just picked up a copy of Shadowdark. So far it looks good. I like the lack of PC darkvision and the casting rolls. I can see it becoming my OSR goto rules set. True test will be how it plays at the table.

Quote from: SHARK on April 20, 2025, 06:50:35 PMGreetings!

Let all the haters cry. SHADOWDARK is getting bigger and bigger. SHADOWDARK is going to continue going from success to success. SGADOWDARK is more and more popular, EVERY DAY.

The recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

More third-party creators are creating stuff for Shadowdark. More interviews, more coverage, more people playing and DMing Shadowdark than ever before.

The haters can choke on it.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

LOL My sentiments exactly, Shark!

Quote from: Valatar on April 20, 2025, 05:27:40 PMEconomically Pathfinder is going to "take over" in the sense of being the largest remaining market share still putting out new content, despite Pathfinder 2 being complete shit as a game.  Given the nature of the hobby however, I expect people are just going to carry on with their D&D version of choice until the paper eventually rots out of the books, or Pathfinder 1 in the case of the people who think it's better than 3.5 as it's basically D&D with the serial numbers filed off.  Thankfully we're under no obligation to be pried away from our already-purchased books and can continue on just fine without WotC.

Yeah, that's really the thing. If WOTC stops publishing 5e books, it's going to be a long time before anyone has to actually stop playing it. Especially if the third-party producers keep churning out material for it, 5e can go on pretty much indefinitely without WOTC's input.

Quote from: SHARK on April 20, 2025, 06:50:35 PMThe recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

Shark, 2.4 million dollars is nothing in the business world.  It's excellent for an indie RPG release, but it wouldn't even begin to make a ripple in the pond that is Hasbro, Mattel, et al.  That's not a knock on Shadowdark or its rules (my group is on our third Shadowdark campaign and I've given my opinions in other threads... it's ok).  But, the day that 2.4 million dollars is the largest RPG release by the leader in the industry, the TTRPG hobby will be effectively dead.  Shadowdark is a decent game, but it's not going to replace D&D.  It can feed on its corpse, but it'll never grow to be that size...

Quote from: Rob Necronomicon on April 20, 2025, 08:06:03 PM

Quote from: SHARK on April 20, 2025, 06:50:35 PMGreetings!

Let all the haters cry. SHADOWDARK is getting bigger and bigger. SHADOWDARK is going to continue going from success to success. SGADOWDARK is more and more popular, EVERY DAY.

The recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

More third-party creators are creating stuff for Shadowdark. More interviews, more coverage, more people playing and DMing Shadowdark than ever before.

The haters can choke on it.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

LOL My sentiments exactly, Shark!

Greetings!

*Laughing* Yeah, my friend! The absolute hatred, jealousy, the seething envy I have seen from a good number of the haters is just disgusting, and pathetic.

Yeah, Shadowdark is inspired from many ideas from many different games. And then, DOES IT ALL BETTER!

All the fat, bitter crybabies shrieking about some fucking obscure game or another, why *Their Favourite Game* is somehow vastly superior, blah, blah, blah.

Shadowdark takes many ideas, blends them together, and presents them with polish, simplicity, modularity, and *style*. All these shriking morons cry about their dweeb game in a fucking basement. They choked. They don't have Shadowdark's organization, presentation, diverse inspirations, and style. That's why no one gives a fuck about their shrieking favourite game, and why so many people love Shadowdark. Simplicity, style, art, presentation, modularity, FUN. A STACK of fucking reasons why so many people love Shadowdark.

I roar with laughter at all the bitter losers crying about some failed game, or just some game that is much less popular. Get over it, dork. Stop being jealous because your favoured game designer or game has been struggling for years and years--and in a much shorter time, Shadowdark has become far more popular, and also made Kelsey RICH. Whah! Whah! Whah!

Kelsey is an excellent game designer, and an excellent writer. There are lots of deeper mechanics under the hood of Shadowdark that really make the engine sing, and anyone with a brain and game experience can see it. Those that don't are usually just consumed with jealousy and bitterness--and also, typically, don't actually own the books and play the fucking game.

Shadowdark is simple, easy to play, easy to DM for, easy to prep for, easy to modify for, has beautiful, OLD SCHOOL ART--not gay fucking dwarves in a bakery, or rainbow haired dweebs in a magic coffee shop. Shadowdark has all the traditional awesome things that are standard in OSR games, with the best ideas from 5E thrown in, as well as other diverse ideas that are cool and popular. Very much rooted and grounded in OSR values and traditions. No stupid Woke politics of any kind.

And yet, a gaggle of these fucking jackasses want to shit on Kelsey as a designer, and on Shadowdark as a game. And also, on the fans and gamers that have supported Shadowdark. The hypocrisy is so high you would need an F-18 to fly over these people's mountain of hypocritical horseshit.

Time to enjoy some fresh coffee, my friend! Stay strong, brother!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Quote from: Eirikrautha on April 20, 2025, 08:36:02 PM

Quote from: SHARK on April 20, 2025, 06:50:35 PMThe recent Shadowdark KS broke 2.4 MILLION DOLLARS. Easy.

Shark, 2.4 million dollars is nothing in the business world.  It's excellent for an indie RPG release, but it wouldn't even begin to make a ripple in the pond that is Hasbro, Mattel, et al.  That's not a knock on Shadowdark or its rules (my group is on our third Shadowdark campaign and I've given my opinions in other threads... it's ok).  But, the day that 2.4 million dollars is the largest RPG release by the leader in the industry, the TTRPG hobby will be effectively dead.  Shadowdark is a decent game, but it's not going to replace D&D.  It can feed on its corpse, but it'll never grow to be that size...

Greetings!

No need to compare to Hasbro, my friend. Most wannabe game designers make ZERO--or coffee money if they are lucky. So, Kelsey making MILLIONS is an absolute and huge success. Shadowdark is already achieved the status of being one of the top indie RPG's sold of all time. Absolutely off the charts, my friend. Very few games are in the same club as Kelsey and Shadowdark.

Pretty amazing when you think about her and her very small team doing this all from their proverbial garage. Just like how Gygax started, come to think of it. Noone cares about WOTC or Habro, man. And yeah, Shadowdark is absolutely spreading in popularity like wildfire, man. Not just channels dedicated to Shadowdark, but even channels focused on other games, solo games, and more, I've seen HUGE numbers of just ordinary gamers applauding and promoting Shadowdark as a fantastic new game, and definitely a strong OSR game to get into.

Lots of other games, all the obscure basement favourites, don't have that kind of energy and enthusiasm. So, whatever the future for Shadowdark, it is absolutely POSITIVE and BRIGHT. That, for an indie OSR RPG, should be something that everyone should celebrate.

Except for WOTC.

As more than a few other commentators have discussed, Shadowdark is HUGE--and growing fast. Lightning speed. Noone gives a fuck about Pathfinder, really. They fumbled the ball a long time ago. So, there is nothing but space and opportunity for new games to grow EVER STRONGER AND MORE POPULAR.

And Shadowdark is happily doing just that, my friend.

More smaller games and designers should learn from Kelsey. Learn from Shadowdark. Stop being jealous losers and crybabies, and instead of stomping their feet and having fits about Shadowdark, they should get with the fucking program, and humble themselves. Learn and accept how they can do things better, improve, and be inspired from learning from Shadowdark which has shown what it is like to do it right.

Gotta get some coffee!

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

Quote from: Venka on April 20, 2025, 04:09:32 AMDomino has definitely been bribed to be so cute.

Nah. As you can see, she hasn't yet learned to be a real camera hog. She just does walk-throughs for now.

Quote from: Valatar on April 20, 2025, 05:27:40 PMEconomically Pathfinder is going to "take over" in the sense of being the largest remaining market share still putting out new content, despite Pathfinder 2 being complete shit as a game.  Given the nature of the hobby however, I expect people are just going to carry on with their D&D version of choice until the paper eventually rots out of the books, or Pathfinder 1 in the case of the people who think it's better than 3.5 as it's basically D&D with the serial numbers filed off.  Thankfully we're under no obligation to be pried away from our already-purchased books and can continue on just fine without WotC.

I don't think so. It might for a millisecond, but its sales are nowhere near what Pathfinder 1e was in its heyday.