My brother has a compromised immune system due to the medications he takes for his Chron's disease. He's the poster child for "complications".

I'm not going to just roll my brother over the side of the boat because "Some people are gonna die". We'll fight it to the end, instead of giving up like pussies.

On topic, my brother has restricted himself to only going out for work and groceries due to his aforementioned situation. I think they tried gaming over Roll20 but couldn't get it to work.

Quote from: Bren;1124449I'm glad you brought this back to RPGs. This sounds like the setup for a good dystopian, post holocaust setting.

You could also try, US President covertly releases weaponized virus in a rival country he dislikes to create a handy scapegoat while waiting until it spreads sufficiently in his own country so he can cancel upcoming elections, declare martial law, and remain in power. The game could play out like Red Dawn, but with lots more local quislings.

Sadly its more boring. Some homer simpson lab worker goofed bad, china didnt bother reporting till they had to, and now a very fragile economic system held together with baling wire and spit is about to come apart in a way that makes the 2008 crisis look like a joke.  I do not think there was any planning, but I do think there are alot of lies in all the CYA going on.   When schools put off closing for two weeks because of concern  due to how many parents rely on free school meals to feed their kids, that alone says how well society is going to hold up under an extreme stress test, our society at least.  Gun, better to have and never need, than to need once and not have.

Quote from: S'mon;1124451I'm pretty sure the death rate is still a known unknown and estimates are all over the place. The one I saw yesterday had me in a 0.4% death rate category and my GF at 0.2%, her daughter at 0.0% and my son at 0.2%.

Out of 190,664 case worldwide (3/17) there have been 7,519 deaths for a fatality rate of 3.9%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

While age brackets numbers are in flux there are certain groups like 70+ where it found to be more severe.

Also the easy to find numbers don't report the number of cases requiring hospitalization or medical intervention. My 10x figure is an estimate based on what I read about other flu-like disease. Even if it half that would 4,500 cases in a relatively short amount of time for my community. If it a quarter is still 2,250 cases requiring medical intervention.

The math is still just as grim if you reduce the overall infection rate as well as the percentage of severe cases. It is two order of magnitude worse than the seasonal flu. My area's hospital system officially has 220 beds, since our current system is a result of a merger of two separate hospital with the building still intact and in use. More beds could be made available. Let's be generous can call it 400 beds in an emergency. So that mean any number that result in deaths+severe cases exceed 400 in my town means packed hospitals and a medical system in crisis.

My point still stands, the overall effect degrades medical services for everybody unless measures are taken now.

Quote from: Ratman_tf;1124454My brother has a compromised immune system due to the medications he takes for his Chron's disease. He's the poster child for "complications".

I'm not going to just roll my brother over the side of the boat because "Some people are gonna die". We'll fight it to the end, instead of giving up like pussies.

On topic, my brother has restricted himself to only going out for work and groceries due to his aforementioned situation. I think they tried gaming over Roll20 but couldn't get it to work.

In case it helps, here are a couple more options than Roll20 (and Fantasy Grounds, which I presume everyone knows about): MapTool ( https://github.com/RPTools/maptool/releases -- free) and TableTop Simulator ( https://www.tabletopsimulator.com/ -- $20).

Quote from: estar;1124463Out of 190,664 case worldwide (3/17) there have been 7,519 deaths for a fatality rate of 3.9%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

While age brackets numbers are in flux there are certain groups like 70+ where it found to be more severe.

Also the easy to find numbers don't report the number of cases requiring hospitalization or medical intervention. My 10x figure is an estimate based on what I read about other flu-like disease. Even if it half that would 4,500 cases in a relatively short amount of time for my community. If it a quarter is still 2,250 cases requiring medical intervention.

The math is still just as grim if you reduce the overall infection rate as well as the percentage of severe cases. It is two order of magnitude worse than the seasonal flu. My area's hospital system officially has 220 beds, since our current system is a result of a merger of two separate hospital with the building still intact and in use. More beds could be made available. Let's be generous can call it 400 beds in an emergency. So that mean any number that result in deaths+severe cases exceed 400 in my town means packed hospitals and a medical system in crisis.

My point still stands, the overall effect degrades medical services for everybody unless measures are taken now.

See this Imperial College report - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf - they have fatality estimates on page 5.

Age-group
(years)
% symptomatic cases
requiring hospitalisation
% hospitalised cases
requiring critical care
Infection Fatality Ratio
0 to 9 0.1% 5.0% 0.002%
10 to 19 0.3% 5.0% 0.006%
20 to 29 1.2% 5.0% 0.03%
30 to 39 3.2% 5.0% 0.08%
40 to 49 4.9% 6.3% 0.15%
50 to 59 10.2% 12.2% 0.60%
60 to 69 16.6% 27.4% 2.2%
70 to 79 24.3% 43.2% 5.1%
80+ 27.3% 70.9% 9.3%

Puts me in the 0.15% fatality estimate, my gf at 0.08%, my son at 0.006% and her daughter at 0.002%. My father at 5.1% and if my mother hadn't just died she'd be at 9.3%.

Quote from: insubordinate polyhedral;1124475In case it helps, here are a couple more options than Roll20 (and Fantasy Grounds, which I presume everyone knows about): MapTool ( https://github.com/RPTools/maptool/releases -- free) and TableTop Simulator ( https://www.tabletopsimulator.com/ -- $20).

I'll let him know. Thanks.

Quote from: S'mon;1124476See this Imperial College report - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf - they have fatality estimates on page 5.

Age-group
(years)
% symptomatic cases
requiring hospitalisation
% hospitalised cases
requiring critical care
Infection Fatality Ratio
0 to 9 0.1% 5.0% 0.002%
10 to 19 0.3% 5.0% 0.006%
20 to 29 1.2% 5.0% 0.03%
30 to 39 3.2% 5.0% 0.08%
40 to 49 4.9% 6.3% 0.15%
50 to 59 10.2% 12.2% 0.60%
60 to 69 16.6% 27.4% 2.2%
70 to 79 24.3% 43.2% 5.1%
80+ 27.3% 70.9% 9.3%

Puts me in the 0.15% fatality estimate, my gf at 0.08%, my son at 0.006% and her daughter at 0.002%. My father at 5.1% and if my mother hadn't just died she'd be at 9.3%.

Look at the first number the percentage requiring hospitalization and the multiply that result by the second number needing critical care and do the math.

Quote from: S'mon;1124476Puts me in the 0.15% fatality estimate, my gf at 0.08%, my son at 0.006% and her daughter at 0.002%. My father at 5.1% and if my mother hadn't just died she'd be at 9.3%.

How nice for you. From the links you provided, in the UK you will have 763,000 dead, nearly 5 million in hospital, and of those nearly 1.6 million will require critical care. Your National Health Service won't have a any problem handling that many patients along with their regular cases, right?

Quote from: Bren;1124490How nice for you. From the links you provided, in the UK you will have 763,000 dead, nearly 5 million in hospital, and of those nearly 1.6 million will require critical care. Your National Health Service won't have a any problem handling that many patients along with their regular cases, right?

And in the UK going out and buying that gun is a no go

Well I always been a Heineken kinda guy so no Corona for me. But for real now, if you don't have alpha genes stay indoors. Cv-19 is extremely contagious, be safe! Things should start getting back to normal in 3 months.

In the first hour of my shift Monday a Mall management staffer came by with a sheet of paper saying that The Mall had to close down immediately by orders of the Board of Health. I was supposed to work until mid-afternoon. Instead I only had two hours of work time.

At 2:30 pm the Hamilton County Board of Health changed their minds and the order was rescinded - too late for all of the stores that closed early.
Later Monday night my manager called me twice and an announcement was made on Facebook and the News that the mall would have shorter hours. So now the mall is 12 noon t 7 pm Monday through Saturday and 12 noon to 6 pm on Sundays.  The normal old hours had been 10 am to 9 pm Monday through Saturdays.

Also the local Pathfinder Society group has cancelled all of their game sessions til the ed of the month - but their main coordinator is encouraging their players to stop by our store as often as possible.

Lets just say the Mall and all of local retail is feeling a bit tense.

- Ed C.

Quote from: Bren;1124490How nice for you. From the links you provided, in the UK you will have 763,000 dead, nearly 5 million in hospital, and of those nearly 1.6 million will require critical care. Your National Health Service won't have a any problem handling that many patients along with their regular cases, right?

If they send them all into Hospital via the Rail Network then most of them will be recovered before they arrive.

Quote from: Bren;1124490How nice for you. From the links you provided, in the UK you will have 763,000 dead, nearly 5 million in hospital, and of those nearly 1.6 million will require critical care. Your National Health Service won't have a any problem handling that many patients along with their regular cases, right?

NHS is shit at the best of times. They're geared towards killing old people, not saving them.

Quote from: Luca;1124430Your biggest strategic enemy imposed military-enforced curfew on one of its regions containing tens of millions of people, and incurred major economic losses in order to stop the spread of this particular "flu".
Ever considered they might have a point?

I considered it, until I did my research and heard from Chinese family friends.

Wuhan was the site of major protests in summer 2019. The protests were over the severely bad air quality that has been causing illness and early death for the people of Wuhan. The ChiCom's response? Lots of beat downs of protestors.

Then the China Virus strikes...a respiratory illness infecting citizens whose lungs have been already compromised from living in a city with the worst air in the world. That's an equation for a high death rate.

But my family's friends from Hong Kong propose an additional "death rate." Last year, it was revealed the ChiComs had gone back to organ harvesting of prisoners, particularly dissidents. They highly suspect Wuhan "troublemakers" have been harvested under the guise of China virus deaths. And let's not forget the ChiComs celebrated their 70th Anniversary last year, a celebration based on the murder of 50 million of their fellow Chinese.

So the death toll in China is very questionable (even without the harvesting aspect), but its parroted constantly as the "math" behind the media induced panic.

And then we have Iran, where there has been significant and escalating civil unrest for two years. I've known Persian Jews who escaped Iran during the revolution and they all swear the Ayatollah's goons were involved in mass killings of dissidents and there are many modern paved streets covering up old mass graves. So who knows if Iran's death toll is real either. This isn't like getting numbers from Italy and South Korea.

As the death math doesn't add up, I don't believe the USA's medical infrastructure will be compromised or overwhelmed. Will it be pushed, stretched and tested? Perhaps. We will all see soon enough.

What I do know is our media will endeavor to flood every hospital, scaring anyone who tests positive (or just has the sniffles) to rush emergency rooms and do whatever they can to maximize panic.

You left out Italy. Maybe the ghost of Mussolini has been leaving a lot of Italians medically vulnerable, so let's cast a shadow of doubt over the fatalities and news coming out of there too.