Well if the Wuhan Flu does nothing else at least we get a wake up call on having all of our trade routes running through a corrupt communist (but I repeat myself) country.

Quote from: Pat;1124193We don't know if she's right, but Dr. Acton provided her methodology, and it's reasonably sound.

Her math was abysmal and utterly irresponsible. [Total population in state x 1%] isn't useful math. Based on her math, 350 million Americans means 3.5 million cases right now. That's absurd beyond absurd.

And it reeks of the same intentional promotion of panic we're seeing across the media.

BTW, Dr. Tara Smith isn't a random professor of public health at Kent State. Check out her background.
https://www.kent.edu/publichealth/profile/tara-c-smith-phd
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tara_C._Smith

But you're right that I should have clarified "college dept" not "state dept" of public health. Mea culpa.

Quote from: Pat;1124193China isolated all cases and ended up containing it one region (all new cases outside the province have been "backflow" from other nations), and they did by locking down entire cities, imposing strong social isolation rules, performing city-wide disinfection, and bringing in massive amounts of advanced medical aid, including setting up temporary hospitals. Aside from the slow start, it was close to the best possible conditions, not a worse case scenario.

We're supposed to believe that (1) the magic virus has a very long silent contagion period, and (2) it was contained in one region of China? That doesn't compute.  

I fully agree China took massive actions (though not at the beginning of the virus arc) BUT that doesn't change the underlying major issues in China. We're talking about a respiratory illness in a city with incredibly bad air quality, so bad that Wuhan even had protests last summer. Protests...in mainland China...aka, the air situation was so bad, common folk risked the wrath of Beijing to beg for help. This ain't a USA Earth Day protest with funny signs, balloons and a facepaint contest.  Thousands in Wuhan risked imprisonment (or worse) just to protest.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/10/asia/china-wuhan-pollution-problems-intl-hnk/index.html

Wuhan was having a high death rate just from the air. It's not surprising that [bad air + bad flu = many deaths of old people]. What's notable is how quickly the virus crisis died out in a city with so many underlying issues.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1124196Her math was abysmal and utterly irresponsible. [Total population in state x 1%] isn't useful math. Based on her math, 350 million Americans means 3.5 million cases right now. That's absurd beyond absurd.

And it reeks of the same intentional promotion of panic we're seeing across the media.

BTW, Dr. Tara Smith isn't a random professor of public health at Kent State. Check out her background.

1% was the conclusion, not the method. She explained it based on the known R factors and how fast the number of cases seemed to be doubling, based on a median of the credible sources. Not that you'd find that in the any of the news articles, they're terrible. But I actually listened to the press conference.

Agree that Smith is a credible source, as well. Though I'd like to know if it was more than a gut feeling.

But this really highlights the main point -- we don't know. And we won't, until it's too late. We can hope for the best, but we have to plan for the worst, and then make decisions based on incompletely understood risks and potentially high costs. In general, the sooner we react the easier (cheaper) it is to contain, but early strong actions are unpopular. It doesn't help that nobody alive remembers a real pandemic, and the natural wait and see reaction when it comes to uncertainty doesn't work well with geometric growth. But China did contain it with overwhelming force, while the authorities in the West didn't even try. It's out there, spreading, uncontrolled. The social distancing and restrictions on large groups are just attempts at mitigation, i.e. slowing the spread or flattening the curve, rather than trying to stop it.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1124196We're supposed to believe that (1) the magic virus has a very long silent contagion period, and (2) it was contained in one region of China? That doesn't compute.  

Once they started taking it seriously, they tracked down and investigated every contact every infected person made. The study released earlier in the week had them tracking individuals across their security cam network, identifying exactly when and by who the disease was spread to other people.

And the dismal conditions in Wuhan might have impeded the spread, if people were already self-isolating to some degree.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1124196I fully agree China took massive actions (though not at the beginning of the virus arc) BUT that doesn't change the underlying major issues in China.

Question for you: do you think chinese leadership is weak and/or stupid?
Because if they aren't, then they must have had some pretty good reason to react to the pandemic with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer.

Quote from: Mistwell;1124118A whole lot of denial going on in this thread.

That's OK, we all cope differently.

Amazingly enough, some of us already have enough food and ammo for a year. How many rolls of toilet paper did you buy before you decided to buy any food? Apparently, the retards were out in full force the past couple days because they finally figured out food is more important than fucking hand sanitizer when you're quarantining yourself off from everyone else.

The only denial going on is people who think this is anything but manufactured hysterics. I am 100% sure China lied about how many people were infected, thus the lethality rate is greatly overblown. They seriously fucked up handling this, and now Europe is paying the price. The only way the US will be impacted to the same degree is if people keep acting really stupid. Which they might if the MSM keeps making up bullshit...

So, it's not cope, it's merely remaining calm in a crisis situation because I'm a good boy scout and am prepared. Other people, apparently, are not.

Quote from: Brad;1124247Amazingly enough, some of us already have enough food and ammo for a year. How many rolls of toilet paper did you buy before you decided to buy any food?

Zero. I've always had plenty of toilet paper. I did see Walmart restock Toilet Paper and declined to buy more. And I did see the mini-mart at the local gas station have shelves full of toilet paper at normal prices.

QuoteApparently, the retards were out in full force the past couple days because they finally figured out food is more important than fucking hand sanitizer when you're quarantining yourself off from everyone else.

The only denial going on is people who think this is anything but manufactured hysterics. I am 100% sure China lied about how many people were infected, thus the lethality rate is greatly overblown. They seriously fucked up handling this, and now Europe is paying the price. The only way the US will be impacted to the same degree is if people keep acting really stupid. Which they might if the MSM keeps making up bullshit...

So, it's not cope, it's merely remaining calm in a crisis situation because I'm a good boy scout and am prepared. Other people, apparently, are not.

Italy's death rate has already shown you're wrong. But again, denial is a coping mechanism. I suspect you will catch up eventually.

Quote from: Brad;1124247The only denial going on is people who think this is anything but manufactured hysterics. I am 100% sure China lied about how many people were infected, thus the lethality rate is greatly overblown. They seriously fucked up handling this, and now Europe is paying the price. The only way the US will be impacted to the same degree is if people keep acting really stupid. Which they might if the MSM keeps making up bullshit...

Even if we accept the fact that China lied, that does not explain how Italy is having such a bad time of it.

All the believable estimates that I have been seeing predict that the Wuhan Flu is going to be about 10 times worse then your normal Flu.

Remember when the world's economies collapsed and the media ran around screaming "EVERYBODY PANIC!" during the H1N1 outbreak on Obama's watch?

Yeah, neither do I.

For the record, about 500,000 deaths worldwide were attributed to it, 12000 in the US alone, and 60 million people (including yours truly) were infected.  

I'm not suggesting Corona-19 isn't dangerous, I'm suggesting there's an agenda at work here to make something that is provably less dangerous than H1N1 into a global disaster, and a disaster especially for the US.

Quote from: thedungeondelver;1124272Remember when the world's economies collapsed and the media ran around screaming "EVERYBODY PANIC!" during the H1N1 outbreak on Obama's watch?

Yeah, neither do I.

For the record, about 500,000 deaths worldwide were attributed to it, 12000 in the US alone, and 60 million people (including yours truly) were infected.  

I'm not suggesting Corona-19 isn't dangerous, I'm suggesting there's an agenda at work here to make something that is provably less dangerous than H1N1 into a global disaster, and a disaster especially for the US.

This "It's all about Trump" is fucking idiotic and needs to stop. Italy is suffering horribly right now. France and Spain shut down, and Germany is about to. China is devastated. THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOU. THIS IS NOT ABOUT SOME FUCKING PRESIDENT. Wake the fuck up already - this is a real thing that's happening. It's not fake news, it's not about your politics, it's not some conspiracy or an election. It's time to look around and accept the possibility this isn't what you thought it was.

I know Conservatives tend to be conservative (small c). But this inability to adapt to change is going to be deadly. Snap out of it.  This is the hospital tent city popping up outside of Italian hospitals unable to handle the influx of patients. They're having trouble disposing of the bodies and doctors are having trouble with the triage of patients. This isn't lesser than H1N1 it's way worse. Figure it out already, cause shit got real without you noticing!

Quote from: Mistwell;1124253Zero. I've always had plenty of toilet paper. I did see Walmart restock Toilet Paper and declined to buy more. And I did see the mini-mart at the local gas station have shelves full of toilet paper at normal prices.



Italy's death rate has already shown you're wrong. But again, denial is a coping mechanism. I suspect you will catch up eventually.

Italy's death rate shows a bunch of really old people will die if they get the flu. You've bought into the MSM, lies, so who is coping?

I can see by the post after this one that you’re just parroting the hysteria, so I’ll stop responding.

Quote from: Brad;1124286Italy's death rate shows a bunch of really old people will die if they get the flu. You've bought into the MSM, lies, so who is coping?

I can see by the post after this one that you're just parroting the hysteria, so I'll stop responding.

Dude, you're in denial. Italy's death rate is not flu level death rates. It's about 10 times higher than flu death rates. Their hospitals are completely overwhelmed. People are taking to Twitter crying that they are stuck in their apartments not allowed to leave WITH A DEAD RELATIVE IN THE ROOM. Wake the fuck up, this isn't the main stream media posting this, this is ANY SOURCE ON THE GROUND IN ITALY. ANY.

But yeah, you flee from the conversation. Just like you're fleeing from reality while calling it bravery. This is what denial as a coping mechanism looks like...fleeing being confronted with uncomfortable reality which doesn't match with preconceived notions.

Quote from: Mistwell;1124288Dude, you're in denial.

Or come from a different logical perspective. Can you believe that not everybody in the world is literally the same as you and are just pretending they're not because they're stupid?
I mean other sources charge Italy with massively mishandling the disease, and not managing its healthcare or social services well. Twitter or "SOURCE ON THE GROUND" are not renown sources.

Like if this truly is some world-ending epidemic Il apologize to you and sing your praises.

But if its not will you eat crow and admit to being paranoid?

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1124292Or come from a different logical perspective. Can you believe that not everybody in the world is literally the same as you and are just pretending they're not because they're stupid?
I mean other sources charge Italy with massively mishandling the disease, and not managing its healthcare or social services well. Twitter or "SOURCE ON THE GROUND" are not renown sources.

Like if this truly is some world-ending epidemic Il apologize to you and sing your praises.

But if its not will you eat crow and admit to being paranoid?

If the conservative estimates are correct and we get a 1% fatality rate, is that an world ending epidemic or just normal flu levels of illness?

Quote from: Shasarak;1124295If the conservative estimates are correct and we get a 1% fatality rate, is that an world ending epidemic or just normal flu levels of illness?

Il put that under "World Ender" level. Maybe I should have called it "Catastrophic!". If it kills 1% of the world population Il consider that enough to accept my folly. (I mean Il bow down if it reaches 100,000)


I just feel I had been hearing enough "Conservative" estimates from "The worlds top science-tists" about so many criseses over my relatively short life that all didn't come true or where grossly overstated that Im just spectical about the whole thing.

Quote from: Shrieking Banshee;1124292Like if this truly is some world-ending epidemic Il apologize to you and sing your praises.

But if its not will you eat crow and admit to being paranoid?

From what I can see, Mistwell isn't saying it will be world-ending. He's saying it will be much worse than the flu -- including the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Ignoring any news outlets, what I see out of health organizations like the CDC and WHO agrees with this.

As thedungeondelver said, the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic killed about 500,000 people worldwide over the course of a year. And covid-19 has the potential to be much worse than that, killing millions, which is why countries are taking such extreme measures to deal with it. There is plenty of scare-mongering, but all the health experts that I've seen say that this is much worse than H1N1. That doesn't mean it's the end of the world, but it is a very real and serious threat - which is why health organizations are recommending much more extreme measures to deal with it than was done for H1N1.