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Other Games, Development, & Campaigns => Design, Development, and Gameplay => Topic started by: One Horse Town on May 24, 2007, 11:19:40 AM

Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 24, 2007, 11:19:40 AM
'Cos i suck at them more than a sucky thing sucking on a suck-stone.

Can anyone work out probabilities for the following? I'd appreciate it muchly.

OK. d6 rolling. You get to roll a bunch of them depending on the stat that covers a certain skill. Say, Climbing and Strength. For example, Joe's Strength is 4, so for climbing skill checks he gets to roll 4d6. Now instead of having a success number or a roll under/over system, i wondered whether successes could be based on rolling doubles/triples/quadruples etc.

So on 4d6, any doubles would be 1 success (1,2,3,4,5,or 6s) with the possibility of two doubles on 4d6 giving 2 successes, triples give two successes, quadruples 3, quintuples 4 etc, ect. Some of thsoe won't be possible unless you are able to roll that many dice, so your probability of getting better successes go up with any increases in your stat as you get to roll more dice. I also considered whether 'straights' could count as a success, with all dice running through the numbers (ie on 4d6 the results being frex 3,4,5,6).

I also figured a very simple combat/damage mechanic for this. The number of successes against you in combat are the number of dice you lose on all subsequent rolls, making you less effective after every wound.

I'm planning stats to have a range of perhaps 1-8 or 1-10, to keep the dice rolling manageable.

So, as you get to roll more dice, are the probabilties linear on achieving doubles/triples/quadruples and thus can you expect more successes than someone without as many dice as you? Is it worth throwing more dice statistically?

Thanks!

Edit: I should also point out that i'm playing with the idea of a mechanic whereby the player can manipulate the numbers rolled to simulate special skill or magic. As is, the success mechanic is totally random and so perhaps a special skill Climb 1 means that Joe above could change any one number rolled by 1 degree, changing a 2 to a 3 so he gets a double. If he had Climb 2, then he could change 2 numbers rolled by 1 degree or one number rolled by two degrees, etc, etc.)

Edit 2: Me thick. Sorted it out.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: obryn on May 24, 2007, 04:50:33 PM
By the last line, do you no longer need help with the analysis?

-O
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: arminius on May 24, 2007, 06:31:40 PM
I think I have an answer.

The first step is to think in terms of rolling each die in sequence, then adding one to your total if the die matches any other die. And the probability (out of six) of getting a match on your nth die is equal to the number of dice that haven't incremented your score.

So if you're on your 5th die and your score is 2, that means there are three chances in six that your next die will increment your score. If it does, then there are still three chances in six that the following die will increment your score. If it doesn't then there are four chances in six for the following die.

Following this approach you can develop a recursive method of generating a table of probabilities. That is, the probability distribution for 6 dice could be rapidly computed once you have it for 5 dice, and so on.

Now that I look at it, it's not too hard to do by hand, or even better by spreadsheet.

Let P(s,n) be the probability of scoring s successes with n dice. Then

P(s+1,n+1) = P(s,n)*(n-s)/6 + P(s+1,n)*(7-n+s)/6

The first term is the chance of getting s successes on n dice, times the chance that the next die will be a match for one of those already thrown. The second term is the chance of getting s+1 successes on n dice, times the chance that the next die won't be a match.

We also need to calculate

P(0,n+1) = P(0,n)*(6-n)/6

Then we plug it all into Excel...very carefully, and out comes this:

(EDIT: the txt is just the data output; the zip contains the excel spreadsheet with the formulas.)
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: arminius on May 24, 2007, 06:48:05 PM
Also, I didn't calculate the mean or std dev, let alone analyze the impact of the manipulation mechanic.

I also didn't look at straights.

Just by looking at the table, most rolls are going to produce a pretty narrow range of 3, maybe 4 numbers. It also looks like doubling your dice is going to more than double your average. E.g. 3 dice is going to average around .5, while 6 dice will average around 2. 4 dice will average around 1, 8 dice around 3.5. 5 dice will average around 1.5, 10 around 5.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 24, 2007, 10:00:23 PM
Wow, thanks Elliot. I'll have a proper look and play tomorrow! :)
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 25, 2007, 09:03:31 AM
Cool. It's almost exactly how i invisaged it, with 4 dice giving an average of one success. Default stats in the game are all 3 with ten points to distribute between the ten stats, so average is deemed to be 4, which gives you on average one success when rolling! Groovy. I also decided on a mechanism to cut down on dice rolling for anyone/thing with a stat over 10. Just assume that 10 dice gives 5 successes and then roll the amount of dice over ten to get the final result. So a stat of 14 will give you 5 automatic successes and then you roll 4 dice and add any successes from that to the result.

I'm dropping the straights mechanism, but the skill rating still allows you to modify dice rolls.

I'm looking at skill ratings of:

1= Experienced
2= Advanced
3= Master

then for mythic beasts/races and immortals:

4= Mythic
5= Divine

This mechanism allows anyone with a statistical rating to attempt any skill with a chance of success (skills are split by stat and are affected by the statistical rating), but allows those with special training a big advantage when attempting skills in which they are trained (adjusting a roll within a bandwidth of 33% with each skill point used).

I like this and think it might work rather well.

So an example:

Stat: Physique Rating: 4
Athletics
Delving
Wrestling 1
Applied Strength

On all skill tests that result from running, sprinting, jumping (athletics), rowing, caving, climbing (delving) and lifting capacity, pushing (applied strength), the player rolls 4d6 for the attempt, noting successes by throwing doubles, triples or if he is lucky, a quadruple. However, when he is wrestling (skill rating 1), he can adjust the result of one of his four dice up or down by one. So, if he rolls 3, 5, 6 and 2 for delving, he fails the test, as he got no doubles. If he rolls that for wrestling, he could change the 2 to a 3 or the 6 to a 5 in order to achieve a single success. This simulates his experience in the skill. If he had wrestling 2, he could change both of those in order to get 2 successes (change the 2 to a 3 and the 6 to a 5).
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 25, 2007, 10:42:36 AM
Opposed Tests

When an activity is tried that is opposed by another person, then the relevant stats of the engaged parties are compared and the protagonist rolls an amount of dice modified by this comparison.

Example 1: Joe tries to sneak past a guard. His Agility is 5 but he has no relevant skill in Moving Silently (the relevant skill under Agility). The guard has an Alertness stat of 4 (no relevant skill in Perception, the relevant skill under Alertness). Comparing the stats, Joe, as the protagonist, has a 1 die advantage over the guard. Therefore in the opposed test, he rolls 6 dice for his Move Silently test to determine successes (Agility of 5 +1 for advantage over the guard). The guard does not need to role. If the stats were reversed, then Joe would only roll 3 dice to determine successes.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: arminius on May 25, 2007, 02:36:58 PM
With your method of resolving cases of >10 dice the extra dice are "shortchanged". For example, if you actually rolled 14 dice, you'd average around 8.5 successes. Taking five for the first 10 and then rolling four will give you an average total of only 6 successes.

This creates breakpoints that you may or may not want to have.

A related issue to bear in mind is that, since average successes scale nonlinearly, there's an incentive to specialize. That is, stripping dice from a stat hurts less than adding additional dice to a stat helps. So, that could be good or bad depending on what you want.

Finally, the effect of skill is tricky to calculate. You might have to resort to doing simulations instead.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 25, 2007, 04:43:00 PM
Quote from: Elliot WilenWith your method of resolving cases of >10 dice the extra dice are "shortchanged". For example, if you actually rolled 14 dice, you'd average around 8.5 successes. Taking five for the first 10 and then rolling four will give you an average total of only 6 successes.

This creates breakpoints that you may or may not want to have.

I'll have think about that then.

QuoteA related issue to bear in mind is that, since average successes scale nonlinearly, there's an incentive to specialize. That is, stripping dice from a stat hurts less than adding additional dice to a stat helps. So, that could be good or bad depending on what you want.

Good. I'm pretty happy with that. Thanks for your thoughts. :)
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: Ian Absentia on May 25, 2007, 05:26:40 PM
Quote from: One Horse TownI'm planning stats to have a range of perhaps 1-8 or 1-10, to keep the dice rolling manageable.
If I'm reading this correctly, what you're proposing bears a fair similarity to the One Roll Engine -- roll a handful of ten-sided dice, look for matches (doubles, triples, quadruples, etc.).  If this is so, there are two things to bear in mind.

First, if you roll more dice than the number of sides of the dice, you're guaranteeing success.  With a d6, if you roll 6d6, there's at least a chance that you'll roll 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.  If you roll 7d6, at least two of the dice will match.

Second, there's a huge statistical drop-off from doubles to triples, so much so that you can usually only count on a double.

Other than that, it's a neat way of rolling dice to determine success.

!i!
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: arminius on May 25, 2007, 06:23:19 PM
It's a got a slight similarity but not as complex as ORE. Really, in this system, there's nothing special about triples--it's just like getting two doubles. That's what made it easy enough to do the calculations.

Also, ORE uses both the number of matches (the "width") and the actual number being matched (the "height").

No way I would have attempted ORE by any means other than simulations. The number of possible outcomes for even a few dice is too big, and the calculations are pretty messy.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 26, 2007, 05:24:27 AM
Yeah, i only found out about the ORE mechanism yesterday when i checked out some other forums. I think this mechanism is sufficiently different from it.

The game is meant to be a faux Ancient Greek/Persian Empire game where legends walk, as do mythic beasts and the immortals. The Gods are still active in the world expanding creation and the idea is that the PCs get involved in grand quests that could be for example finding the Fountain of Life, slaying the Beast of Blarg or opposing the wicked mortal offspring of the God of Strife, who is raising an army. Typical fantasy stuff, but with a mythic quality. Characters seek Fame so that their names are entered onto the Roll of Heroes and have Sagamakers write plays about them. They have Devotions to the Gods (several if they fancy) and this Devotion allows them to ask for Boons. These could be as simple as effecting skill rolls or as catastrophic as raising a tidal wave or cursing the King. Devotion fluctuates as the PC makes pilgrimages, raises temples, leads services or dedicate victories. When he asks for a Boon, the cost of the Boon is removed permanantly from his Devotion to that God; he's used up his favours. Then he can start building it again.

The Pantheon of Gods is a fairly simple Life vs Death deal, with all of them taking one part of creation/destruction as their purview. So one God may hold the Secret Flame (magic), another the Pillars of Creation (creation) and another the Hammer of Destruction. The Gods live in mythic places on the earth such as the Gates of Destiny or the Golden Halls and mythic heroes can track these places down.

Enough exposition!

On the successes front and 7dice guarenteeing success. I'm splitting the game into four seperate levels. Mortals (max stat 5), Heroes (max stat 7), Mythic (max stat 9) and Immortal (no max). The idea being that you can run the game from a common man involved in the typical sort of fantasy game campaign and all that involves, through the Hero level which would be on a par with high level d&d and then onto Mythic which will be akin to the stories of the Greek heroes like Jason, Perseus and the like. Then immortals are the offspring of Gods like Hercules or members of the first races.

The split is there to allow people to choose the tone of the game, but i'll also use things like Fame and Resolve to allow movement through those levels.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 26, 2007, 06:55:39 AM
Callings

Characters choose a race and a calling when devising a character. Race templates might look like this and are added to the PC profile after all of the stats have been agreed apon:

Joe Bloggsian: +1 Interaction, Charm 1, Barter 1
John Doeian: Survival 1, Hardy 1, Foraging 1, Sign reading 1  
Verytallian: +1 Physique, +1 Prowess, Applied Strength 1

Once a race has been chosen, a calling is chosen, like the example below:

Mythmaker

Mythmakers are those who push their bodies past the barriers that others impose on themselves. They strive to go faster, further and higher than those who preceeded them so that their names can be added to the Roll of Heroes. They are athletes, wrestlers and game players. A big ego can sometimes acompany these pushers of boundaries which sometimes turns to arrogance and indifference to those 'below' them. These larger than life personalities sometimes participate in impromptu challenges of skill or strength with worthy adversaries on the road or if within a city can sometimes be followed by cheering crowds. Example Greek comparison: Olympian Athlete.

Physique +1, Endrance +1, Wrestling +1, Athletics +1, Applied Strength +1

The character is named Theoric the Untiring. Theoric venerates Auros the Ox, Consumer of the Void and will dedicate his athletic victories to his patron to build up his Devotion, maybe getting access, after time, to Boons that could make him even stronger. Theoric is a Verytallian. It is a 'mortal' game and so the stat maximum is 5.

Theoric the Untiring
Manual Dexterity 4
Endurance 5
Pragmatism 4
Agility 4
Physique 5 Wrestling 1, Athletics 1, Applied Strength 2
Alertness 4
Leadership 4
Mental Discipline 3
Interaction 5
Prowess 5

Edit: This is turning into a bit of a design blog, so 'll ease up now and see about interest when i'm much further advanced!
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 28, 2007, 06:14:05 AM
As this is meant to be a game set in a faux mythic Greece in ancient times, i'm aiming to do away with currency. There is none. There is only barter. This is a concept us modern people find difficult and counter-intuitive, so i wonder whether i could post thoughts here for comment on how intuitive my system will be.

Barter Value (BV)

All goods and equipment (including mass trade goods) will have a BV. The barter value is a very simple mechanism based on how much food & water it takes to keep one person for one day. So a BV of 1 is equal to that amount. Each piece of equipment or item will have their BV listed with that as the base.

For Example:

Sheep BV 10
Trained Guard Dog BV 15
Sword BV 40
Floppy Hat BV 3
Lodging BV = number of nights stayed + 1

So a PC wanting to buy a new sword could trade 2 trained guard dogs and a sheep for it or 13 floppy hats and a days food (BV1). Obviously, this is just using the 5 examples above. There will be the normal amount of equipment listed so that interesting trades can be made.

The only complication to this very basic mechanic will be a 'regional variance' table which will just be a multiplier to the base value such as x0.8 or x1.2 etc. Also a conditional modifier can be applied, such as 'war footing', 'drought' and other likely conditions that can affect the base BV of goods.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 29, 2007, 08:31:43 AM
Just a few examples of Boons that characters can call upon with their Devotions. I expect i'll have between 8 and 10 for each God.

Characters build up devotions by making pilgrimages, dedicating victories to the God or by certain actions that the patron approves of and quests. PCs can have devotions to many Gods if they wish, although that may cause some petty jelousy and gaining the attention of said divinities. The Devotee calling is dedicated to a single God (basically priests) and receive larger Devotional rewards than other callings. The cost of the Boons below is permenantly removed from the relevant Devotion score once it has been called upon.

Calling the Juggler Radiant
Patron: Hyssh, the Many Handed, Keeper of Eternity
Cost: 3

Description: The supplicant asks to be instilled with the divine manual dexterity of his patron. For one scene he increases his Manual Dexterity by 1 point. This affects all Manual Dexterity skill rolls.

Thunderclap
Patron: Hyssh, the Many Handed, Keeper of Eternity
Cost: 8

Description: The supplicant places his palms together and implores his patron to instil in him the power of the twelve-handed God. The supplicant then claps his hands together and the roar of the twelve-handed God shakes the air. Any Devotees of the Cerenesian Pantheon within earshot must roll an Endurance (Diehard) test. Failure results in loss of consciousness for 10 minutes and deafness for 1 day upon awakening, 1 success results in deafness (no hearing based Alertness tests allowed for 1 hour), 2 successes results in a ringing in the ears (-1 die to all hearing based tests for 10 minutes).    

Cyroxix Chrysalis
Patron: Hyssh, the Many Handed, Keeper of Eternity
Cost: 25

Description: The character is gifted with a shimmering silver chrysalis that pulses softly. The chrysalis must be kept warm and dry for six months. Once six months is up, one of the children of Cyroxix (Hyssh's mount) hatches from the cocoon. This magnificent creature will serve the supplicant until either the death of the beast or the master.

Profile

Manual Dexterity 8, Trickery 3
Endurance 7, Diehard 1, Hardy 3
Pragmatism 4
Agility 8, Avoidance 2
Physique 6, Athletics 2
Alertness 6, Perception 1
Leadership 2
Mental Discipline 4
Interaction 2
Prowess 5, Trample 1
 
Qualities: Sniff the Wind (Alertness), Darksight (Alertness), Twelve Hands of Hyssh (Manual Dexterity), Deathless (Endurance), Telepathy – Empathy (Mental Discipline), Chase the Horizon (Physique)

Slow Erosion
Patron: Hyssh, the Many Handed, Keeper of Eternity
Cost: 50 (supplicant must have at least one statistic of 7)

Description: The supplicant asks his patron to give him a measure of eternity. The supplicant must carry out a quest for his God in order to achieve this. If he is successful, then the number of his days is extended to double his natural lifespan. Although he ages normally during this time and is subject to death by violence, he does not die of natural causes until the allotted time is up. Hyssh does not let slip of eternity lightly and has been known to smite those who call upon this Boon frivolously or on more than one occasion.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 29, 2007, 01:08:32 PM
More stuff if anyone's interested.

Devotion Awards

Characters gain Devotion Awards when they carry out actions that the Gods of their Pantheon approve of. These awards can be dedicated to any of the Gods by the character, sometimes resulting in Devotion to multiple Gods. Alternatively, the character can focus his Devotion to one deity, building up a store of trust between the worshipper and the God. Devotion Awards are traded in to gain access to Boons. Boons are gifts from the Gods to reward the faithful and take many forms.  

Devotion Awards also affect the character's Fame.

General Devotion
Dedicating a Minor Victory at a temple or shrine 1 pt
Dedicating a Major Victory at a temple or shrine 3 pts
Funding a shrine or temple 5 pts
Funding a pilgrimage 4 pts
Serving in a temple or tending a shrine 1 pt per year of service
Missionary work in heathen lands 4 pts
Making a pilgrimage to a minor site 1 pts
Making a pilgrimage to a major site 3 pts
Minor victory against opposing pantheon (Phrenic (Life) vs Cerenesian (Death) Pantheons) 2 pts
Major victory against opposing pantheon 4 pts
Finding the Cerenesian Arch 10 pts
Finding the lands of the Gods 10 pts
Abasing oneself before your God 15 pts

Devotee Devotion Awards
Devotees are the priests and preachers of the Gods. They devote their lives to a single God, spreading the tenets of the faith. Each God awards Devotion for different actions. These awards are in addition to General Devotion Awards, although the Devotee character must always devote general awards to his patron deity. If he devotes general awards to other Gods, he risks the wrath of his patron deity.

Hyssh
Craft skills 1 pt per point of craft skills
Trickery skills 1 pt per point of trickery skills
Ending the life of the Warped (who have stolen parts of Eternity. Undead really) 3 pts
Protecting the life of Immortals 3 pts
Maintaining old buildings or materials 1 pt
Killing an Immortal –3pts
Allying with a Warped –3 pts
Destroying old buildings or materials –1 pt
Opposing the followers of Dag-Gaden, the Billowing Shroud, Bringer of the End Days (Cerenesian Pantheon) 1-5pts
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on May 30, 2007, 08:28:19 AM
Now a snippet about Flameseekers (a caling) and the Secret Flame.

The Secret Flame

When the Phrenic Gods emerged into the Void from the Cerenesian Arch, they carried with them the secrets of creation; a living red flame that they fashioned into the earth, the sky, and the creatures and races that populate the brave new world. This Secret Flame was fragmented into billions of sparks, each one residing within a creation of the Gods. Without the flame, there would be only void.

Content with their creations, the Gods rested. Using the flame had exhausted them and whilst their gaze was directed elsewhere, their brothers, the Cerenesian Gods emerged from the arch. These Gods wielded destruction in equal measure to the creation of the Phrenics. The Flame of the Cerenesians was black and undid much of the work that the Phrenics had undertaken. Even more unsettling, the Cerenesians introduced death, disease and malady to creation. There was much turmoil among the new races and the creatures of the world.

Kraal, the Grim Herald, decided that something must be done to protect creation. He journeyed to the cities of his people on a lightning bolt fashioned from the Flame and told the most intelligent scholars of the secret of the Flame, so that mortals and Immortals alike could oppose the destruction wrought by the Cerenesians. Learning of this betrayal, Kalem-Dar, the Destructor, gave the secret of the black flame to his people.

Scholars, prophets and seers could now utilise the barest sparks of the Secret Flame. However, its use came with a price – The user of the flame must inevitably lose some of the lustre of his spark to bring life to another. Thus, the Flameseeker was born out of chaos.

At last the races of the world had a method of resisting destruction (or tempting it) that did not rely solely on the intervention of the two rival Pantheons.

Using the Secret Flame

The Secret Flame is used to create or destroy. The red flame of the Phrenics is used to create new wonders, matter where before there was none, and to reverse the damage wrought by the black flame. The flame of the Cerenesians is the reverse in utility; used to destroy matter that already exists, weaken creations of the red flame and ultimately return creation to the void.

Flameseekers must power the Flame with a spark of their own in order to bring it to life. This is represented by a statistical sacrifice in order to create the effect. These sacrifices range from 1 to 5 points and are determined by the power of the effect and the skill of the user. Unfortunately, the races of the world generally don't possess the regenerative powers of the Gods, so these sacrifices can only be reversed through the application of XPS.  

Fashion Lightning
Requirement: Mental Discipline - Mystic 5
Statistical Cost: Manual Dexterity 5  
Difficulty: 4 Successes
Fashioning Time: 4 successes, 3 rounds. 5, 2 rounds. 6, 1 round. 7, instantaneous

Description: A user of the Black Flame (a God in this case, as a skill of 5 is only available if you are divine) fashions a bolt of lightning from the Secret Flame. This lightning can be hurled at any target the God is aware of. It automatically hits, causing an amount of damage equal to the amount of successes achieved to the victim and anyone within 10 yards.

Alternatively, a God utilizing the Red Flame can ride the lightning. He grabs hold of it and specifies a destination. The lightning then transports him instantly to his destination before fizzling out.


(Note 1: All Flame effects require the use of the Mental Discipline skill - Mystic, to use. Those without Mystic special skill cannot use the Secret Flame. The score of the users Mystic skill determines the power of the spark. So someone with M.Discipline – Mystic 2, could only use sparks with a requirement of 2 or 1. The statistical sacrifice matches the power of the spark.)

(Note 2: If a user fails in his attempt to use the flame, he does not have to sacrifice statistical points.)
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 01, 2007, 12:24:58 PM
Fame

Heroes do heroic things. They save the villagers from a rampaging beast, they scale the unscalable mountain just for a glimpse of world's end, they wrestle giants and riddle with inscrutible immortals for a taste of the golden fruit. Sagas are made in their honour, frescos depict their victories and clay cameos of their profile are sold to commoners wishing they were the hero depicted. Their deeds are recorded in the Roll of Heroes kept by the Sagamakers, so that all may hear of their exploits.

Characters receive Fame for their exploits. Fame affects things as diverse as Barter Values, how the character is treated and the adoration he receives from the populace at large. It's main utility is in facing down other heroes in games of strength and skill or intimidating them into other actions. As the hero becomes more famous, his confidence grows to match it. A hero's Fame is a sort of measuring mechanism, so that conflicting heroes can gain an edge over one another or over creatures of myth that have heard of their exploits.

Heroes bid Fame against each other to gain a psychological advantage, sometimes playing to a crowd and sometimes just boasting because their lives depend upon it. The opposing heroes (or creatures) bid the number of their Fame score that they wish to commit to the attempt. This number is the amount of dice that they roll to determine success. The two opponents secretly note down the bid and then reveal the bid at the same time. Each opponent rolls the dice and notes successes. The person with the most successes has stared down his opponent. For the duration of the scene, the loser of the test has all of his skill successes reduced by one. The loser of a Fame battle permenently loses half the amount bid from his Fame score if he survives the event (stories spread of his infamy). Bidders cannot bid more Fame than they have and the total cannot exceed his highest statistical score.

Clashes of Fame are more common in gladatorial contests or carnivals and games than in deadly fights to the death.

Example: Cronan the Cerenesian Slayer comes across his arch rival, Mythos the Death Mage in an ancient ruin. Both heroes are storied and have faced down many threats. Events have been held in their honour. Blows are inevitable, but before they tangle, they exert their Fame on each other, looking for an advantage in the coming fight. Cronan has a Fame of 12 and Mythos 11. They both bid the amount of Fame they are willing to risk. When they are revealed, Cronan has bid 5 points and Mythos has also bid 5 points (both have a highest stat score of 5). They boast of their exploits, have friends recount their deeds and produce gifts they have been given. Finally they confront each other with their prowess and roll the dice. Cronan gets no successes, but Mythos gets 1. Mythos' bearing, confidence and prowess has cowed mighty Cronan.  Mythos has the upper hand already. Shortly after the battle is joined, Cronan decides that a retreat is in order and flees the field. The story spreads and Cronan's Fame is reduced to 10 as a result.

Edit: Actually, i'm going to drop the cap for this. Otherwise the bid will be fairly predictable. PCs can bid any number up to their Fame rating. Then it's a matter of risk and reward.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 04, 2007, 08:06:43 AM
Skills

Because this game is meant to run all the way from normal mortal play to divine level, the skill mechanisms need to reflect that division as well as feed into the dice rolling mechanism. So that the amount of successes something rolling 5 dice is going to get is reflected in the affect of the skill along with those who are rolling 10 or more dice and the successes that this will generate. Therefore, skills are probably going to be the crunchiest part of the system and the one that will require a bit of looking up. The idea is that skill success charts will be made so that players/GMs can just read across to not the results.

Many Skills assume a baseline competence. This is a level set at what most humans are able to achieve. There is no need to make a skill test if the difficulty is below this level. Only when it is harder than the baseline should a skill test be undertaken. Then, it is the number of successes that determines how successful the character making the test is.

Example: Jumping

Running Jump

No. Successes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Default
Character’s Physique in yards +1 +3 +6 +12 +24 +48

Standing Jump

No. Successes 1 2 3 4 5 6

Default
Half character’s Physique in yards +1 +2 +3 +6 +12 +24

Vertical Jump

No. Successes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Default
1 Yard +0.5 +1 +2 +4 +8 +16


Note: Wearing a Bronze cuirass lowers the wearer’s Physique by 1 point for the purposes of determining Jumping tests.

The main problem is that each skill is likely to have different ways of measuring defaults and the effect of successes on those defaults. So a bit to ponder.

Edit: I think a little explantion of the above is in order. Take Running Jump for example. If the jump is equal or lower in yards to the characters Physique, he does not need to make a skill test to make the jump successfully. However, if a character with a Physique of 5 needs to make a 6 yard jump, he must make one success when he rolls a skill test. If he wants to jump 7 or 8 yards, he must make 2 successes. 9, 10 r 11 yards and he will need 3 successes (not something that rolling 5 dice will likely get you). This ingrains normal human achievement into the mechanism. If you were playing a heroic game and the Physique was 7, then the default for that character would be 7 yards! Only if he wanted to jump 8 yards or further would he need to make a skill test. He is also more likely to make more successes, thus adding yardage to his baseling more easily. It's when you get to the mythic and immortal levels that the effects of the skill ramp up (indicated by the sudden jump in the skill tables above from +1, +3, +6 to +12, +24 etc. These characters are likely to have scores of 7 or greater. A Physique stat of 10 (immortal) means that the default running jump distance is 10 yards! He is on average going to make 4 successes, increasing his jump distance to 22 yards, if he needs to roll at all. Some Qualities (which will be detailed later) also affect the default skill baseline before successes are rolled for.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 04, 2007, 12:00:50 PM
A short example of a mythic beast.

The Sphere of Ordon (Mythic Beast)
Manual Dexterity 0
Endurance 6, Diehard 1
Pragmatism 4
Agility 4, Avoidance 1
Physique 1
Alertness 9, Perception 4, Sign Reading 3
Leadership 9, Oration 3, Presence 3
Mental Discipline 9, Tongues 2, Mystic 3, Control 4
Interaction 8, Charm2
Prowess 4

Qualities: Oracle (M.Discipline), Telepathy (M.Discipline), Regeneration (Endurance), Deathless (Endurance), Levitate (Agility), Flight (Agility), Farsight (Alertness), Darksight (Alertness), Truesight (Alertness), God-King (Leadership), Aura of Koss (Leadership)  

The Sphere of Ordon is the storied God-King of the far off realm of Ordon. It is said to be a floating eye the size of a mule. It rules over the main city of Ordon and acts as protector, advisor and religious leader to the savages of that land. It is said that the Sphere can see the true intent of every man, into the heart of the sun and into both the past and the future. Even wilder stories say that it speaks directly into the minds of those it meets, instantly knowing the language of the person communicated with and that it flies like a bird. Travellers say that the Sphere also has mastery of the Secret Flame. If the stories are true, than this mythic beast is a fearsome opponent indeed. It seems content to rule over the squabbling tribes of Ordon, however, and has not made any move against the civilised states of Phrenia. It is sometimes sought out for it's prophetic mutterings, but usually demands payment that the supplicant is unwilling or unable to achieve, such as draining the Spawning Pools of Elgoria, or putting out ones own eyes. When all else fails, the Sphere has been known to destroy supplicants with a blast of the Secret Flame. It resides within the Watching Tower, facing out to sea and its gaze fixed on matters only the Sphere is privy to.

Sagamakers have wondered for long centuries whether the Sphere of Ordon is the offspring of Irg, the All-Seeing, Watcher of the Cerenesian Arch. If this is true, then the Sphere may be an important defence against the forces of destruction that the Cerenesians present. No one has survived the subsequent wrath of the Sphere when the question has been put to it, however.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 04, 2007, 01:43:50 PM
I could do with a bit of help with the damage mechanism, if anyone has any thoughts.

The plan in combat is that the (Prowess) Swordsman or Spearman of the attacker is used for melee attacks, (Physique) Wrestling for unarmed attacks and (Alertness) Marksman are used as the relevant skills to attack. So the amount of dice you roll is determined by those stats and skills. You roll and note successes. The defender can use his own Prowess or Physique or (Agility) Avoidance to oppose this and subtracts the amount of his successes from the attackers. If that reduces the attackers successes to zero or below, then no damage is taken. If it still results in a positive number, then the remaining successes of the attacker are taken as damage by the defender. Now, i want damage to be simple and am considering the damage to be an across the board reduction to the amount of dice that the injured party can use in future skill tests (each attackers success results in one less dice roled by the injured party). However, that will soon mean that some stats will be zero and the others very very poor. When is he dead or unconscious? So then, i thought that the damage could only apply to one stat, rolled randomly on a d10 and future skill rolls for skills under that stat suffer. In theory, this is better, but again, when is there death or unconsciousness? I've already decided that some creatures will have a stat of 0 in some areas, so deciding that when a stat becomes 0 is the onset of either state isn't going to work. The alternative is to say that when Endurance reaches 0, then the character is dead. Then that makes Endurance the most important stat...

Then, there is the mythic, heroic angle to consider. It ain't very heroic to be struggling with skills the whole time and then die. So another idea is Resolve, which equals the characters highest stat. When he is damaged, he makes a Resolve test (rolling an amount of dice based on the Resolve number), needing to roll more successes than wounds he took, to shake off the damage. If he doesn't roll more successes, then he takes the damage to his Resolve score (which regenerates with rest). Once his Resolve is 0, then he gives up the ghost and dies.

Any thoughts?
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 05, 2007, 10:09:12 AM
Well, i've come up with something else. Damage comes from the characters Resolve as noted above (although 3 rolls to determine a hit & damage, is that too many?). When Resolve hits 0, the character must make a Diehard roll (Endurance) to remain conscious (1 success remain conscious for 5 rounds, 2 successes 10 rounds, 3 successes 1 scene, 4 successes indefinitely). Every future damage comes directly from a random stat (roll 1d10), lowering the characters efficiency with that stat. Once Endurance has reached zero, the character is dead.
Title: Who's Any Good At Probabilities?
Post by: One Horse Town on June 05, 2007, 05:29:09 PM
I seem to be spitting feathers here, so i'll call it a day. Thanks to Elliot for your help on the probabilities! :)