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Interstellar Economics

Started by flyingmice, August 24, 2007, 09:12:41 AM

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Aos

It's funny, I'm arguing this point back and forth; but nobody in my game moves food anyway, at best they do the occasional load of mail. The rest is background that I'm too lazy to think about much.
You are posting in a troll thread.

Metal Earth

Cosmic Tales- Webcomic

flyingmice

Quote from: AosIt's funny, I'm arguing this point back and forth; but nobody in my game moves food anyway, at best they do the occasional load of mail. The rest is background that I'm too lazy to think about much.

In my Serenity game, I just stated out to the players "You guys will make barely enough to cover usual expenses by trading, no matter what you do. It's the main trope of the setting. Anything exceeding that, like replacing a blown snagget flap or eating something besides canned beans means finding something shady." Sic transit economics. It does indeed depend entirely on setting, and if that's the way you want it, all is cool. It's just not remotely realistic. If that's not a priority, then it really doesn't matter. Considering how absurd most game economies are, what I'm talking about is minor indeed! :D

-clash
clash bowley * Flying Mice Games - an Imprint of Better Mousetrap Games
Flying Mice home page: http://jalan.flyingmice.com/flyingmice.html
Currently Designing: StarCluster 4 - Wavefront Empire
Last Releases: SC4 - Dark Orbital, SC4 - Out of the Ruins,  SC4 - Sabre & World
Blog: I FLY BY NIGHT

estar

GURPS Far Trader addresses some of these issues. With math too boot. Basically it boils down to comparative advantage. It isn't that a airless moon can grow its own food. Is that they can make more money by focusing on the industries that are more productive than growing their own food.

Consumers are driven by low cost in commodity items. But you forget that the producers want the most return for their money. So while a cost of commodity may be higher they still make more in the long run. Hence your starships full of grain and cattle.

flyingmice

Quote from: estarGURPS Far Trader addresses some of these issues. With math too boot. Basically it boils down to comparative advantage. It isn't that a airless moon can grow its own food. Is that they can make more money by focusing on the industries that are more productive than growing their own food.

Consumers are driven by low cost in commodity items. But you forget that the producers want the most return for their money. So while a cost of commodity may be higher they still make more in the long run. Hence your starships full of grain and cattle.

No question. estar. The point isn't that grain and cattle wouldn't ever be hauled, just that doing so makes them luxury foods, not staples, and priced accordingly. However, I'd draw the line at live cattle. If they are wanted as food, hauling frozen carcasses should be more than sufficient, and if they are wanted for their genes, hauling ova or sperm should suffice. Dietary restrictions would be the only exception, if they wouldn't accept certificates as to the kashrut or al-hilal status of the meat. If so, expect a huge bonus on top of the luxury price for the fodder and care of the live animals. :D

-clash
clash bowley * Flying Mice Games - an Imprint of Better Mousetrap Games
Flying Mice home page: http://jalan.flyingmice.com/flyingmice.html
Currently Designing: StarCluster 4 - Wavefront Empire
Last Releases: SC4 - Dark Orbital, SC4 - Out of the Ruins,  SC4 - Sabre & World
Blog: I FLY BY NIGHT

Aos

Quote from: flyingmiceIn my Serenity game, I just stated out to the players "You guys will make barely enough to cover usual expenses by trading, no matter what you do. It's the main trope of the setting. Anything exceeding that, like replacing a blown snagget flap or eating something besides canned beans means finding something shady." Sic transit economics. It does indeed depend entirely on setting, and if that's the way you want it, all is cool. It's just not remotely realistic. If that's not a priority, then it really doesn't matter. Considering how absurd most game economies are, what I'm talking about is minor indeed! :D

-clash

Well we're shattering the shit out of the laws of physics every week, I see no reason to leave the laws of economics intact if it gets in the way of the fun.:D
You are posting in a troll thread.

Metal Earth

Cosmic Tales- Webcomic

Aos

Quote from: flyingmiceif they are wanted for their genes, hauling ova or sperm should suffice.



-clash


BTW, See Andre Norton's  Solar Queen books for some examples of this.
You are posting in a troll thread.

Metal Earth

Cosmic Tales- Webcomic

estar

Quote from: flyingmicejust that doing so makes them luxury foods, not staples,
-clash

It all depends on the premise of the setting. If it the Third Imperium then it is no different than shipping grain from the US to Russia. People do ship staples around Earth and it does take more than a week to get from point A to point B. Why? Because the bulk carriers shipping the stuff are simply not that fast. Go back to the late 19th century then we are talking weeks instead of a week or days for bulk good.

Plus even with our technology the cost of surface to orbit is a problem of quantity not technology. When your spaceport only launches people three to four times a year you are talking about a very expensive flight. Do a launch every week your costs drop by an order of magnitude. Don't let current spaceflight economics fool you into thinking that bulk trade would be a luxury or hard.

Frankly it highly dependent on the nature of technology, geography/astrography, resources, and economic factors. You have to start with a premise and work your way to the conclusion. Far Trader did with the Third Imperium. It is little different than late 19th century/early 20th century trading.

estar

Quote from: flyingmiceI'd draw the line at live cattle. If they are wanted as food, hauling frozen carcasses should be more than sufficient, and if they are wanted for their genes, hauling ova or sperm should suffice.

Again it is technology dependent. If you have artificial wombs then ova and sperm would work. If you don't..... well on the hoof is the only way you are going to get your starter herd. I agree that if it food i.e. meat that is shipped then frozen car accesses will probably be the way it done. It not like Texas Beef is shipped live to New York City. But live cattle will be shipped if there another need for them like starting a ranch in New York.

flyingmice

Quote from: estarIt all depends on the premise of the setting. If it the Third Imperium then it is no different than shipping grain from the US to Russia. People do ship staples around Earth and it does take more than a week to get from point A to point B. Why? Because the bulk carriers shipping the stuff are simply not that fast. Go back to the late 19th century then we are talking weeks instead of a week or days for bulk good.

Plus even with our technology the cost of surface to orbit is a problem of quantity not technology. When your spaceport only launches people three to four times a year you are talking about a very expensive flight. Do a launch every week your costs drop by an order of magnitude. Don't let current spaceflight economics fool you into thinking that bulk trade would be a luxury or hard.

Frankly it highly dependent on the nature of technology, geography/astrography, resources, and economic factors. You have to start with a premise and work your way to the conclusion. Far Trader did with the Third Imperium. It is little different than late 19th century/early 20th century trading.


I'm not talking comparisons to present day or the past, estar. I'm talking economic realities. I laid out the economics in the formula I posted earlier. Plug in your numbers and do the math. You will see what you have to charge for your food on delivery in order to make a profit. If you go shipping items at a loss, then that loss has to be made up somehow, usually with subsidies - which are paid for by taxes, which means it's just an inefficient pricing mechanism. Unless you have a wierd edge condition dictated by game specific logic, like AOS's dirt cheap, uninsured spacecraft, those prices will be in the luxury range.

-clash
clash bowley * Flying Mice Games - an Imprint of Better Mousetrap Games
Flying Mice home page: http://jalan.flyingmice.com/flyingmice.html
Currently Designing: StarCluster 4 - Wavefront Empire
Last Releases: SC4 - Dark Orbital, SC4 - Out of the Ruins,  SC4 - Sabre & World
Blog: I FLY BY NIGHT

flyingmice

Quote from: estarAgain it is technology dependent. If you have artificial wombs then ova and sperm would work. If you don't..... well on the hoof is the only way you are going to get your starter herd. I agree that if it food i.e. meat that is shipped then frozen car accesses will probably be the way it done. It not like Texas Beef is shipped live to New York City. But live cattle will be shipped if there another need for them like starting a ranch in New York.

Edge condition. 99% of beef shipments are not for starter herds.

-clash
clash bowley * Flying Mice Games - an Imprint of Better Mousetrap Games
Flying Mice home page: http://jalan.flyingmice.com/flyingmice.html
Currently Designing: StarCluster 4 - Wavefront Empire
Last Releases: SC4 - Dark Orbital, SC4 - Out of the Ruins,  SC4 - Sabre & World
Blog: I FLY BY NIGHT

estar

Quote from: flyingmiceI'm not talking comparisons to present day or the past, estar. I'm talking economic realities. I laid out the economics in the formula I posted earlier. Plug in your numbers and do the math. You will see what you have to charge for your food on delivery in order to make a profit. If you go shipping items at a loss, then that loss has to be made up somehow, usually with subsidies - which are paid for by taxes, which means it's just an inefficient pricing mechanism. Unless you have a wierd edge condition dictated by game specific logic, like AOS's dirt cheap, uninsured spacecraft, those prices will be in the luxury range.

-clash


I understand your formula. Economics is not all about controlling cost.

You have airlift moon Alpha
You have earthlike planet Delta

Food cost 1000 credit per ton to produce on Delta
Food cost 2000 credit per ton to product on Alpha (dirt beats hydroponics)
10 ton of food per month is per acre of hydroponic
1 ton from Alpha to Alpha costs 100 credits and 1 day to ship
1 ton from Delta to Alpha costs 1000 credits and 10 days to ship

One colonist needs 1 ton per month to survive

His food grown on Delta costs 2100 to his table
His food grown on Alpha costs 3000 to his table

Seem like a winner for Alphans to grow their own food. Saves 900 credits and gets to the table quicker. Let's look at the retail price. We will go with 20% so food is sold from Alpha is 2,520 credit at retail and 3,600 from Delta at retail.

But it takes 1 acre to give 10 people 1 ton each. An acre of hydroponics farm can sell food with a retail values of 25,200 credits

A vacuum crystal plant takes up an acre. It needs 80,000 credits worth of labor, maintance, and resources to produce. 100,000 credits worth of processed industrial crystals.

So I am a guy on Alpha. I got money to invest. I am I going to invest in a hydroponic farm and make a palty 4,200 credits when for the same acrage I can get 20,000 credits per month.

And in real life it is worse than my example.

1) Commodities have low margins. Manufactured goods have very high margins. This is why historical capital shifted away from agricultural to manufacturing. For every $ you invested in agriculture you get a lot more from the same $ invested in manufacturing.


2) Shipping cost is proportional to volume. The more shipping goes to a place the costs become, the lower the rates can be offered and the lower the margin will be accepted (because you are still making alot of credits).


Look a your formula. It lacks scaling as a factor. That the larger a vessel is that less crew per ton is needed, which impacts consumables. Also since bulk goods are not particularly time sensitive once a steady stream of shipments is estabilshed you can optimize speeds to reduce your fuel and consumable usage. Shipping is not a factor of tonnage. It is scaled in that the larger the quantity you ship the less your costs will be per ton.

Again, a blanket statement that interstellar bulk trading can't happen is not true. That statement have to follow from the premises. A premise that it simply costs more isn't sufficient. 19th Century Britain had the land to grow its own grain for its population but yet it imported grain from Argentina. Why? Because Britain made so much money from its growing industry that it could afford to absorb the cost of shipping that grain.

flyingmice

Quote from: estarI understand your formula. Economics is not all about controlling cost.

I'm looking at this from a different angle - the angle of the PCs delivering food. If the PCs are delivering food, they are not delivering food at staple prices. The people of alpha are going to be paying luxury good prices for their food, whether it is staples or not. Ergo, if they are shipping wheat to alpha, they are shipping luxury goods, not staples.

-clash
clash bowley * Flying Mice Games - an Imprint of Better Mousetrap Games
Flying Mice home page: http://jalan.flyingmice.com/flyingmice.html
Currently Designing: StarCluster 4 - Wavefront Empire
Last Releases: SC4 - Dark Orbital, SC4 - Out of the Ruins,  SC4 - Sabre & World
Blog: I FLY BY NIGHT

Balbinus

PCs run tramp freighters, not massive cargo shipping vessels.

Food in the real world is not transported by tramp freighters so much.

And in most tramp freighter sf rpgs space travel is too rare and expensive to make food worthwhile or other easily produced local materials (and that's easily in the context of a spacefaring culture bear in mind).

So, medicines, unique items (Torvald's World crystalwine, carvings from the Mnori people of Deneb IV, artefacts from the lost civilisation of the XT4367 moons), people, stuff that isn't commonplace.

And illegal stuff of course, guns, drugs, stimvids, celebrity dna samples...

estar

Quote from: flyingmiceI'm looking at this from a different angle - the angle of the PCs delivering food. If the PCs are delivering food, they are not delivering food at staple prices. The people of alpha are going to be paying luxury good prices for their food, whether it is staples or not. Ergo, if they are shipping wheat to alpha, they are shipping luxury goods, not staples.
-clash

It won't be luxury goods price given a traveller/firefly type premise. Different technology will produce different results of course. Seriously what technology you are basing your assertion on.

Also look what happens in Alaska, Siberia and other exterme earth environments where everything has to be shipped in. Food is more expensive but it not luxury good expensive. Plus people are making crazy money so while they pay more for the food they have more to spend.

I agree Tramp freighters are not going to be competing with bulk carriers. Again Far Traders addresses that issue in almost excoriating detail. And Far trader agrees with my own experience with the shipping industry.

Kyle Aaron

Quote from: flyingmiceUnless you have a wierd edge condition dictated by game specific logic, like AOS's dirt cheap, uninsured spacecraft, those prices will be in the luxury range.
Or like that redneck hyperdrive setting, where you didn't even need a spaceship, just something more or less airtight, a computer and $200 worth of gear from Radio Shack.
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