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I can't math, Need help mathing.

Started by Piestrio, April 30, 2013, 10:13:18 PM

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Piestrio

:(

Okay, here's what I need and am too stupid to figure out:

If I roll 1d6 the chance of me getting a 1 is 16.67%

If I roll 2d6 the chance of me getting AT LEAST one die showing 1 is... and the chance of both showing a 1 is...?

What about 3d6? 4d6? 5d6? 6d6?

What if I'm looking for 1s and 2s?

1s, 2s, and 3s?

1s, 2s, 3s, and 4s?

etc...

Basically I need some charts with the various probabilities for two variables:

Number of d6s (from 1 to 6).

And the "target number" on the die (from (1 or less) to (5 or less).  

FREX: I'm rolling 4d6 and anything less than a 2 is a "success". What are the odds I get one success? two? thee? four?

I'm rolling 3d6 and anything less than a 4 is a success. What are the odds I get one success? two? three?

etc...

Help me theRPGsite, you're my only hope.

EDIT: Yes I looked up probability calculators for dice. See sentence 1.
Disclaimer: I attach no moral weight to the way you choose to pretend to be an elf.

Currently running: The Great Pendragon Campaign & DC Adventures - Timberline
Currently Playing: AD&D

Rincewind1

#1
http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

This may help I think - I was actually going to give the obvious answer (just multiply and divide), but then I thought "wouldn't this mean you have a 5% chance to roll a 00 on a d100? That's nonsense). Then I started to remind myself of my old HS math in regard to the probability...and deciding to figure this out for myself, I stumbled across this.

He's tackling exactly this problem.
Furthermore, I consider that  This is Why We Don\'t Like You thread should be closed

Bloody Stupid Johnson

#2
You can get a '1' on either of two dice if you either a) get a 1 on the first dice or
b) you don't get a 1 on the first dice, but then you get a 1 on the second.

i.e. 1/6 + (5/6 times 1/6)
in other words 6/36 + 5/36 = 11/36.

That's basically the 'Rule of Intersection' which is that the chance of either A or B happening is the chance of them added together, minus the chance of both happening. e.g. You can't just go 1/6+1/6 = 2/6 because it double counts the probability where both are successes.

When you start needing to work out exact # successes on lots of dice, you move to having to use binomial probability rules which gets more complicated.

(Sorry this is already covered off in Rince's link, but I thought I'd have a shot at trying to explain more simply, or at least briefly. Dunno if I've succeeded.).

BubbaBrown

Anydice.com can help you here.

http://anydice.com/program/221a

This has the calculations for the probability for certain values in 2d6 and the probability for rolling a number of 1's.

Change values to match what you are looking for.